The Eels begin a three game homestand this week, with a run to the finals that features six of eight matches at CommBank and all but one clash in the Thursday or Friday time slots. While there are big questions over whether Parramatta is good enough to make the top four, the draw has been kind to them in granting plenty of home games, several against fellow finals contenders.

I’m feeling a big night for Dylan Brown tonight

The best you could say about last weekend is that I didn’t come out of the game feeling worse about our premiership chances. It wasn’t a statement victory but it was, despite a late Tigers rush, a comfortable win that should have been a lot more if competence or consistency was demonstrated by the officials. It was a classic example of “if you are good enough, the refereeing doesn’t matter” as you don’t cop much more officiating adversity than a net four or five tries through tough decisions.

Anyway, we aren’t here to bash officials or justify only beating the Tigers instead of hammering them, we’re here to preview the Warriors. New Zealand has the worst defence in the competition, and two weeks ago ended a five game losing streak by beating the Tigers in the most lay-up, gimmie match in NRL history: the Warriors playing at home for the first time in a few seasons. Now they come back to Australia and hopefully go back to their losing ways.

Game Info

Date: Friday July 15, 2022
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 7:55 PM AEST
Referee: Todd Smith
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 42, Eels 24, Warriors 18
Odds: Eels $1.11 Warriors $6.50
Lines: Eels -17.5, total points 44.5
Fact: New Warriors coach Andrew Webster spent some time in the Parramatta system, taking the 2013 under 20s to 14th place. Off the bench that season? Recently re-signed NSW rep Ryan Matterson.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week I tipped Mitch Moses to get in amongst the try scorers. The odds on that were $4.00 for one try and $23 for the double. Even taking on both bets you’d have received a profitable return on your investment.

Once again Parra are at prohibitive odds against a lowly rated opponent. We all know how that has worked out this year.

So let’s have another crack at the try scorers market.

Shaun Lane is at $3.75 to score a try at anytime, and $21 for the double. The tall back rower has been in the right form for this market and I’d suggest he’s a good chance to cross the stripe at least once. Let’s hope any of those try scoring moments aren’t not disallowed this week.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Marata Niukore. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jake Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Ky Rodwell.

22. Hayze Perham 19. Elie El-Zakhem.

Junior Paulo will back up from Origin, while Ryan Matterson has turned a late withdrawal last weekend into a multi-week delay in his comeback from a rib injury. Despite this, there is no room for an extended return to first grade for Nathan Brown, who has been cut from the extended squad.

The only other change is Jake Arthur coming into the utility role for Tom Opacic. I’m sure it is a popular decision, but if we see Jake in this one it is either a terrible sign (somebody is injured) or a great one (we are up big with 20 to go).

New Zealand Warriors

1. Reece Walsh 2. Marcelo Montoya 3. Jesse Arthars 4. Adam Pompey 5. Ed Kosi 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Tohu Harris 11. Euan Aitken 12. Josh Curran 13. Jazz Tevaga. 14. Freddy Lussick 15. Bunty Afoa 16. Aaron Pene 17. Jack Murchie.

18. Eliesa Katoa 20. Rocco Berry.

The Warriors have a stack of backs in that “replacement level” range, and most of them seem to be getting a run this week. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is out, bringing in Ed Kosi who has apparently gone on a Qld Cup try scoring spree but I mostly remember for not being very good last year.

Another injury to rookie Ronald Volkman means the Warriors luck into their best halves combination in Shaun Johnson and Chanel Harris-Tavita, though Harris-Tavita has already announced he is retiring at the end of the year and might just play like it, while with Johnson you might not be able to tell the difference. Tohu Harris moves to prop where he can’t effectively utilise his great line running and offloading, while back rower Euan Aitken has been creating the toughest game of spot-the-difference in the NRL with his “runs” and “possessions” numbers. He’s averaging about one pass per game.

The Game

The Warriors aren’t good on paper, they’re coming back to Australia for the first time since normalcy resumed for them and they’re the worst defensive team in a competition full of bad defensive teams. The odds suggest this is a game of “by how many” for the Eels, which will no doubt worry a fanbase that needs a word stronger than “shellshock” to describe their relationship with the men in Blue & Gold.

It’s revenge game time!

Take your pick of the Warriors’ edges, both are terrible at defending. Looking at the names and combinations in the backline it is easy to see why they’ve struggled, and if Parramatta can just play patient, field position footy then the points should flow fairly easily. I don’t feel like going into the issues you all know so well, but patience and taking the obvious path to victory against an overmatched opponent hasn’t been as simple for the Eels as it feels like it should be. This is a good time to flick the switch to “finals mode” and show some real commitment and poise.

The Warriors are an NRL anomaly in that their attack is right-side heavy, aiming at the Eels less-tested left edge of Blake and Sivo. That isn’t to say that edge is a strong one, I don’t have a lot of faith in either man to hold defensive shape, but at least the Eels biggest weakness, the right edge defence, doesn’t align with an opponent’s strength like it has the last couple of weeks.

There isn’t much else to analyse with the Warriors. They aren’t a good attacking team; individual moments for Shaun Johnson are few and far between, while Reece Walsh just signed with the Broncos and hasn’t exactly been on fire this year to begin with. Their forwards and backs basically play separate games, no Warriors forward except hooker Wayde Egan has more than one try assist or try contribution this year, the only regular starting forward for the Eels who hasn’t hit that number is Reagan Campbell-Gillard, and his performance has been so good we can forgive him not creating tries directly.

The Warriors are worst in the NRL for broken tackles and offloads, second last in post-contact metres, dead last in running metres. Parramatta should crush them. Yes, the Warriors have played frisky against them in recent years, and the size in their pack could create some issues, but this game is there for the Eels if they are good enough. I’m not sure the mental blocks that affect this team will ever be broken, but another poor effort here is inexcusable.

The Lowdown

Now that Origin is over, the run to the finals is officially underway. The Eels are relatively healthy, they’ve got important wins against the best teams in the comp under their belt, and a draw that provides plenty of chances to prove their worth in the run home. The Storm are slipping up with alarming regularity, while two games against the Broncos is a great opportunity to knock them out of the race for the four. That crucial second chance is right there for Parramatta to grasp, but it has to start with a big score tonight to get back in the differential race.

I’m feeling a big reverse-revenge game for Simba, too

On the other side, a loss and suddenly the Eels have a tough draw home and are right in the thick of a scrap to make the finals. The best the Eels have offered this year can absolutely take a premiership. The worst belongs in the bottom four. The Eels need to live near the top end of their extremes for the rest of 2022, and if it doesn’t start this week then I don’t know when it will ever kick in.

The Warriors have a caretaker coach, a bunch of players that barely care, a backline full of reserve graders and their finals chances are already sitting in “mathematical chance only” range. I’m one day going to get sick of picking the Eels to win big and then they limp home, or worse, but it’s my birthday today so I’m tipping the Eels to give their favourite previews and grades writer a big old present (even if I’m still waiting for my text, Mr. Moses).

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 46 d New Zealand 18

Man of the Match: Isaiah Papali’i

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