It is time for the eighth edition of the Territory Eels clash, an annual tradition where Parramatta takes a home game to Darwin in an effort to promote the game (that conveniently pays rather handsomely). While the lost home game hurts a lot more now that we sacrifice a full CommBank Stadium than it did in 2014 when we’d lose 6,000 people at Parramatta, Darwin has been a happy hunting ground for the Eels over the last eight years. In 2022 we host the North Queensland Cowboys in the Territory for the third time.

The Cowboys are as close as we are getting to a surprise story in 2022 with 4 wins, 3 losses and sitting fifth on the ladder. After two years of chalk rugby league, a surprising rise from the bottom of the table is a refreshing change but let’s not oversell it: this is a team that has lost to the Bulldogs and Warriors while beating the Raiders twice, the Titans and Broncos. The Roosters towelled them up too. Parramatta presents their first real test in a while, so here’s hoping they get a giant “FAIL” stamped over their name come Saturday night.

It’ll be a hot, steamy April night in Darwin, daytime temperatures will hit 34 degrees, at kickoff it will likely be 30 degrees and 80% humidity. I again ask the question: which genius decided to move the Territory clash from June or August to April? Last year this played into the Eels’ hands as they ran over a fatigued Broncos, but I’d rather football games be decided by skill rather than fitness, thanks.

Game Info

Date: Saturday April 30, 2022
Venue: TIO Stadium, Darwin
Kick-off: 7:30 PM AEST (7:00 PM ACST)
Referee: Todd Smith
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 41, Eels 20, Cowboys 20, Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.31 Cowboys $3.50
Lines: Eels -8.5, total points 40.5
Fact: The Eels have won six of their seven Darwin matches since 2014.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Bless you Mitchell Moses.

Last week we took the Eels at -7.5 with over 40.5 total match points which was paying $3.40. That final field goal got the punt home by half a point, and after a couple of rough results, I’ll take it.

Based on a $20 weekly investment, after six weeks of punting (we looked on in Round 6) anyone following the tips would be enjoying a grand total profit of $1! Don’t @ me, it’s better than losing.

Once again the Eels are at short odds to win, meaning there’s very little value in the head to head market this week. Consequently we need to explore the exotics.

I like to first half market, especially the line/over under. Take Parra to cover the -5.5 (that’s just one converted try) with 20.5 total first half points. That’s paying a tempting $4.00.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Hayze Perham 3. Will Penisini 4. Dylan Brown 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Jake Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright.

18. Wiremu Greig 19. Mitch Rein 20. Tom Opacic 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Solomone Naiduki 23. Elie El-Zakhem 24. Luca Moretti.

Centre, half, Dyl is crushing it wherever he plays in 2022

While reinforcements are nearing for the Eels, depth remains stretched like Luciano Leilua’s Tigers jersey for now, requiring Dylan Brown to shift to the centres with Jake Arthur coming into the halves. It worked last week, but it is certainly not the ideal Parramatta lineup. With a disrupted week heading to Darwin I wouldn’t expect Tom Opacic back to reverse the change, but I would be very disappointed if next week we were forced into yet another Panthers clash without our first choice spine. Opacic and Russell aren’t far off a return, and Niukore may only be a week or two away as well.

Bryce Cartwright didn’t get much of a run last week and appears to be on the bench for depth purposes only, it would seem there is no place for him in this new style of Eels attack. Hayze Perham was barely tested in defence last week, but he did a good job in the attacking side of the game against Newcastle. This week will give us a better answer to whether he’s a long term solution on the flank.

North Queensland Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo. 14. Jake Granville 15. Tom Gilbert 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Griffin Neame.

18. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 19. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 20. Connelly Lemuelu 21. Ben Condon 22. Emry Pere 23. Brendan Elliot 24. Ben Hampton.

Todd Payten loves a late lineup switch that nobody sees coming, so expect some changes to that starting pack, usually Luki or Nanai swapping out and Reuben Cotter getting a start for one of the props. I’m sure the Eels will be shaking in their boots not knowing who is actually going to start against them.

Payten has a good problem coming his way with the return of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who looks ready to return but the form of Scott Drinkwater with the ball is making it hard to find a space for the speedster. Again with a short week and travel, I don’t expect him to mess with a winning formula coming off the Cowboys best win of the year.

If you think Brad Arthur’s bench strategy is bad, a couple of weeks ago the Cowboys managed to use only 15 players. Just a reminder that it can always get worse.

The Game

The numbers suggest the Cowboys are playing an “Eels-lite” style of football in their surprise start to the season, dominating possession with low error and penalty counts, winning the metres battle and controlling where the game is played. They aren’t as adventurous as Parramatta: they don’t offload as much, break fewer tackles and make fewer line breaks, but their defensive line is stronger, they concede the fewest offloads of all teams and they miss fewer tackles.

Shaun Lane had a big game last week, but needs to up his positive involvements

That defensive improvement accounts for much of their 2022 jump, as the Cowboys have graduated from the worst defensive team in the competition to a unit second only to Penrith in points conceded. It is still early enough in the year that a favourable draw may hide their true defensive ranking, but what is clear is that they present a much sterner challenge than last season. Now they will face one of the best attacking teams in the competition, albeit one with some major shifts in its own structure, but the Eels can’t show up expecting to have it all their own way.

North Queensland are doing well with the field position their possession based gameplan presents them with. While statistics as basic as “tries scored off kicks” are unavailable because the NRL and its media still operate like the internet never happened, the Cowboys are certainly using an effective red zone attack, especially with the addition of Scott Drinkwater to the squad.

Jeremiah Nanai is making a name for himself as a kick catcher, and that is an area Parramatta needs to watch as Nathan Cleary has found success against the Eels with similar kicks placed near the posts for back rowers charging through. He can’t be allowed an easy passage to contest the kick, and players who may not usually challenge for high balls will need to make the effort. Kyle Feldt has long been a kick catching weapon on the wing as well, and Valentine Holmes similarly has good hands from his time at fullback. On a night where the ball and players will be slippery, Parramatta must work hard to spoil the kicking tactics of the Cowboys halves.

Cowboys half Tom Dearden has looked a lot more comfortable in first grade this year, and while Chad Townsend is the controlling arm of the side, Dearden is the danger in the red zone. He can run just enough to force honesty from the defensive line, and the presence of Drinkwater looming wider could give him the space he needs. Wider, Hiku and Holmes can both beat a man one-on-one, though the “through the hands saloon passage” is usually how Parramatta gets beaten on the flank. Heilum Luki is making a habit of crash ball tries this year, and needs to be watched as one of the few edge weapons the Cowboys have in a pack that is otherwise meat and potatoes yardage men.

While this is a test of the Cowboys’ bona fides, it is also a challenge for the Parramatta defence. A unit that has been more leaky than hoped, particularly considering the opposition they have played, the Eels kept the Knights from crossing the line last week and another strong defensive effort suddenly sees them as one of the better units in the league by the numbers.

Considering North Queensland’s possession-based gameplan, it is a great test of the Eels defensive structure close to the line and whether there are improvements in the Penisini-Simonsson edge. The eye test suggests Simonsson in particular is making better decisions, but they will be tested this week and need to deliver results. Dylan Brown is an elite defender and will ensure the new left edge combination isn’t an easy target, but it will all be for nothing if Parramatta’s contact in the middle doesn’t improve. Again, last week was better, but the Knights were exhausted and battered by the late stages. A repeat performance here will be very encouraging considering the opposition the Eels will face over the coming month.

The Lowdown

It will be an unusual clash up in Darwin, with slippery, oppressive conditions. North Queensland would train in similar each summer, you would think they will be better prepared than Brisbane was last year, but either team having to do more than a fair share of defence will be very difficult to overcome.

The best defensive fullback in the comp against the worst

Both teams play a game that suits; attrition football based on metres and minimal mistakes. It may come down to who executes more cleanly, or who has the best attacking moments when given a fleeting opportunity. On both fronts I believe the Eels have the slight advantage. The Parramatta pack is better at yardage, with multiple weapons capable of a set-changing run versus the reliance on Jason Taumalolo of the Cowboys. Their attack is better structured and contains more individual threats. Parramatta might be more likely to concede under red zone pressure, but I think the Eels will get more opportunities and take advantage of them.

The class gap in the spines is hard to ignore. Mitchell Moses is in form Chad Townsend or Tom Dearden wouldn’t reach in their dreams, and while Reed Mahoney hasn’t been at his best this year, his pass selection and ability to manipulate the ruck were on point against Newcastle and are light years ahead of what Reece Robson is capable of. Clint Gutherson against Scott Drinkwater is likely the best defensive fullback in the NRL against the worst. If Gutherson saves one try and Drinkwater let’s one in, that’s the difference in most competitive games of league.

Parramatta will be encouraged by the dominance of last week’s effort, and in tough conditions off a disrupted week and having to shift their five eighth to centre to cover injuries, I think they’ll stick with what worked. It won’t be easy, but it should be another win for the Blue and Gold.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 24 d North Queensland 16

Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson

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