It’s the favourite weekend of every footy fan with a leave pass: Magic Round. Or as it is better known, Schoolies for Dads. While every footy Instagram personality you know is pushing their multis from the Caxton Hotel this week, the Blue and Gold army are largely wishing it would all be over. Can Parramatta improve its miserable 1-5 record at the festival of footy? The only thing in the way is an out of sorts Melbourne Storm.

The Storm have feasted on Eel at Magic Round to the tune of a lot to not many in two prior contests, but this isn’t your dad’s Melbourne Storm. This is more like your dad on the third night of Dad Schoolies, a shell of himself who just wants a warm bed and a bucket of chicken to ease all the pain but instead finds himself with a XXXX in hand going down like nails, begging to be put out of his misery and packed into the middle seat of a late night flight home. Not speaking from experience at all there.

Can the Eels put the Storm out of their misery at Magic Round? It’ll take some doing, but there is certainly a path. Let’s dig into the preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, 16 May, 2026
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 7:45PM AEST
Referee: Peter Gough
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Mild, wet
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)

I hope you all got onto last week’s tip of over 61.5 total match points. Some missed conversions delayed reaching that mark but how sweet was the victory!

For mine, this week is much simpler.

Though it means nominating the Eels to win, the odds of $3.15 in the head to head market are quite attractive. Yes, Parra has a poor record against the Storm, both overall and especially those results in the opening rounds of the last two seasons. And Magic Round has never been kind.

But this Storm team remains vulnerable in 2026. The Eels need high completions and the ref remains a major concern. But maybe he’s due to have a better game?

Keep the punting fun by making it responsible. Go you mighty Eels.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Joash Papalii 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 17. Charlie Guymer 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown. 20. Harrison Edwards 21. Araz Nanva 22. Jonah Pezet.

Is this right? No changes to the side? Is the Titanic out of deckchairs? Jason Ryles has the luxury of naming an unchanged lineup for this contest, and that continuity will surely bring about some defensive improvements. There is still some scope for late changes: mid-season arrival Harrison Edwards finds himself in the reserves, but it is looking likely the Eels will run out with the same side that beat the Cowboys last weekend.

Melbourne Storm

1. Sua Faalogo 2. Will Warbrick 3. Jack Howarth 4. Nick Meaney 5. Moses Leo 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Harry Grant 10. Josh King 11. Shawn Blore 12. Ativalu Lisati 13. Trent Loiero. 14. Trent Toelau 15. Cooper Clarke 16. Davvy Moale 17. Joe Chan. 18. Stanley Huen 19. Preston Conn. 20. Josiah Pahulu.

Sua Faalogo is the surprise in for the Storm, apparently coming out of last week’s contest not with a concussion (and thus a mandatory stand down) but a sore face. Scans have cleared him of any lasting damage so he takes his place at the back. Moses Leo earns a recall thanks to the injury to Hugo Peel, and will immediately become a target for the Parramatta attack. There’s a bit of shuffling on the extended bench with names familiar only to deep Storm fans, and former potential future Eel and Zac Lomax trade chip Josiah Pahulu will show the Eels what they missed out on in declining that exchange from a spot on the extended reserves.

Fortunes Faded

Junior had one of his best performances of the year coming from the bench last week

The Storm may have terrorised the Eels in round one, but there hasn’t been a lot of happiness for Melbourne since then. They’ve won two games and lost seven, with the two wins coming against the Dragons and an injury depleted Tigers. Their defence has fallen to pieces and their big name attacking players are out of form, they got 50’d by Penrith and barely avoided it against Souths, a team they had never lost to in Melbourne, not once in 28 years. It’s been a treat.

The question is: did they play themselves back into form against the hapless Tigers last week? A 44-16 win is no doubt impressive, but the Tigers were missing at least nine first choice players, including three quarters of their spine (and the one left is more cheerleader than footballer, who spent the week prior being paraded in a new club’s colours). There is plenty of scope for this being a mirage, papering over the serious issues at the Storm.

Most of those issues will be familiar to Eels fans. The Melbourne edge defence is porous, easily cracked by good shape and hard running on both sides. They are the worst team in the NRL at defending from set restarts. Our favourite the Eye Test has a detailed breakdown on the numbers outlining both of these issues, and it is particularly damning just how bad the Storm have been defending extended sets, especially when it has been a strong suit for them historically.

Parramatta hasn’t been great in either of those departments, highlighted last week by the Cowboys strolling through the edges time and again and the Eels conceding tries after each of the first three set restarts against them. This one might just come down to who draws the ire of the referee first, and then rides that momentum to a handy lead.

The bad news for the Eels is that their favourite referee is in charge of this contest, Peter Gough, who in addition to pulling out some of the more baffling rule interpretations we’ve seen has hammered Parramatta with the arm waves this year. It’s a right bore to talk referees (and if the Eels were good enough, we wouldn’t need to) but the fact is Parramatta’s record with Gough is so anomalous that his presence has to be taken into account.

Fair Shake

Ronnie’s running game has been a huge weapon

Let’s make a bold assumption and say we get a fair shake; how do you beat Melbourne? The reductive but mostly correct answer is simple: run at them. Their edge combinations have struggled mightily all season, a mixture of inexperience and a reduced level of talent caused by injury and player movement. The current back row of Lisati and Blore is perhaps the strongest they’ve fielded all year, but both have missed significant time with injury and have raw combinations to their left and right. Both halves are among the worst in the NRL for tries conceded, usually a sign that the playmakers have been left on an island by their inside and/or outside defenders. Nick Meaney and Will Warbrick are similarly at the top of the try concedes leaderboard, while Moses Leo would join them if he hadn’t been dropped for his own defensive issues.

Getting into good ball to exploit this defence will be the challenge for Parramatta. The Storm aren’t an elite metre making side but they steamrolled the Eels in round one on the back of momentum, particularly Harry Grant and Stefano Utoikamanu. They don’t make a lot of errors, but those restart defence numbers show that the combination of a piggyback downfield and some extended fatigue is usually enough for a good attacking team to crack them.

The Eels attack hasn’t been a well oiled machine in 2026, but last week showed a lot of promise as both halves had their running games on point. Ronnie Volkman has been particularly effective, and his threat will create opportunities out wide for Josh Addo-Carr. On the other side, Jordan Samrani runs great lines and will make anything but a committed attempt pay; he has to be a focal point of the attack in combination with Kelma Tuilagi. The Parramatta edge attack has been stymied by rushing defence this year, but one good play the ball should be all Moses needs to line those two up in shape and threaten the weak edges.

Defensively the Eels just need to be better. It’s reductive, but Parramatta’s edge reads with anything but a fully set defensive line are just terrible, with back rowers and centres making panicked choices and leaving gaping holes in the line either by marking the wrong man or shooting out of shape. The tackling isn’t always great, the Eels forwards give up too many standing play-the-balls and are scattered like ten pins for fast rucks too often, and that momentum often leads to the issues out wide, but that is a harder problem to solve that defenders just sticking to their shape and marking the right player. The defence is never going to be good (we’ve already given up more points in ten weeks than Penrith will all year) but bringing the clanger rate down and not conceding 30 every week would be a positive step.

One area of interest is whether Jason Ryles runs with the same bench strategy as last week, with Junior Paulo coming off the pine for impact. In combination with Dylan Walker’s playmaking and the improved power game Toni Mataele showed against North Queensland, that could be a match turning shift if the Eels can stay even with the Storm for the first 20 minutes. Winning momentum in that period will be crucial, as it is when Harry Grant goes to work and finds success, which will be much more difficult for the Maroons rake if his side are on the back foot.

The Game

Toni Mataele had a coming of age performance last week

I’ve had a dig at Magic Round to start this preview, but it shouldn’t play much of a part here. Melbourne may love playing at Suncorp, but they also love playing in Melbourne and in the space of the last month meekly surrendered a 12 year home winning streak against New Zealand and not just lost to Souths at home for the first time, but lost by 42. 28 years, 20 matches. Gone. That’s the level of fall we’ve seen from Melbourne this year.

Does one win against a Tigers reserve grade side change that? The flaws in this Storm side are still there, and the Eels have the tools to exploit them. Unfortunately the Eels also have similar weaknesses and for all the problems with Melbourne’s defence, they still boast some of the best attacking players in rugby league. Parramatta need to get better, but the chance for the upset is absolutely there

The range of outcomes here is massive. Early momentum is going to be huge, as neither side has much resilience and loves to concede on the back of possession. I’m reluctant to bet on the Eels to win any kind of ruck contest or six again war, but that’s an eye test observation, statistically we’re middling for set restart discipline. Gough hasn’t been our friend but it usually isn’t one-sided restart counts that cruel us with him this year but baffling inconsistency in his decisions, both with the rules of the sport and from his prior calls in the contest.

It’s another one of those “I’m hopeful, but I can’t tip us” kind of games. It’s a big turnaround to go from getting 50’d in round 1 to winning in round 11, overcoming demons and history. It can certainly be done, but it is the minority potential outcome here. The Eels should come in with belief, and they had better give this one a good shake, if only because they could put a nail in the coffin of a bitter rival. Let’s do it.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Storm 36 d Eels 22

Man of the Match: Harry Grant

Gol

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