Happy Darwin is Done day to all who celebrate, and given that the audience here should be almost entirely Eels fans (with maybe a few stray, curious Raiders dropping by; hello Raiders fans, always had a soft spot for you guys) that should be all of you. What started as an advantageous, big money trip to the north was eventually morphed into a cruel and unusual punishment by the boffins at the NRL who went from scheduling the Eels against fellow NSW based teams in June to insisting we face Queensland based teams well conditioned to the heat and humidity, in April.

In a throwback to those early years, the Raiders get to make one more long trip up to the far north. Remember when the first Ricky Stuart revenge game was scheduled for Darwin instead of Parramatta? Yeah, we’re all old now. The Raiders are winless in two attempts against the Eels in the NT, can we make it three from three? Let’s get into the preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, April 12, 2025
Venue: TIO Stadium, Darwin
Kick-off: 7:35PM AEST
Referee: Wyatt Raymond
Bunker: Grant Atkins
Weather: Hot, humid, potential storm
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week’s victory by the Eels made it consecutive winning tips for any followers of the speculation. After getting the points aspect right in two markets against the Sea Eagles, I was bullish about both the Eels chances against the Dragons so that head to head option looked terrific. I’ll ignore the stress we went through before the unbridled joy kicked in.

The tropical venue makes this week harder to assess. Canberra are winless in two outings up in the Territory, whereas the Eels recent record in Darwin speaks for itself.

Zac Lomax will be a huge out for the Eels to overcome but the positive is the return of Bailey Simonsson and the looming return of Mitch Moses. I’m hoping that both will buoy the team.

Once more the Eels are at good odds, and I’d suggest taking them at the 6.5 points line which is paying $1.90. If you decide on the straight out win you can get $2.85.

For those looking for slightly more value, Ryley Smith is paying $5.00 in the any time try scorer market. With his level of fitness, he should thrive when others are flagging in the tropical north, so a sneaky dummy half try or support play could see him grab his first NRL try.

But as always, keep it fun.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Josh Addo-Carr 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 20. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Gideon Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Charlie Guymer 19. Dan Keir. 18. Joash Papalii 22. Ryan Matterson.

Just in time for the change to be made official with Zac Lomax named on the wing, he’s out for six weeks with a foot injury. What a season. Bailey Simonsson is called up to replace him after easing his way back from an ACL tear through NSW Cup. In the pack, Ryley Smith is named to start again but Jason Ryles played funny buggers with the pack last week and it is a big ask for Smith to play 80 in the Darwin heat, so there’ll probably be a swap go on here.

In the pack Sam Tuivaiti misses out, seemingly rested with Dan Keir promoted in his place. It isn’t the worst idea to go with a fitter, leaner pack in the Darwin conditions, especially considering the size of some of the Raiders forwards. Rumours persist that Ryan Matterson will make his season debut this week after crushing NSW Cup last round, we’ll see if the redemption tour begins soon enough.

Canberra Raiders

1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Savelio Tamale 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Tom Starling 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Matty Nicholson 13. Corey Horsburgh. 14. Owen Pattie 15. Simi Sasagi 16. Morgan Smithies 17. Ata Mariota. 18. Trey Mooney 19. Jed Stuart.

Basically full strength for the Raiders, though Ricky too loves a late swap with Josh Papalii usually the man making way. Zac Hosking is the only first grader in the casualty ward, though the endless flow of English forwards into the nation’s capital has provided a worthy replacement in Matty Nicholson.

Fitness Test

A big difference maker to the energy of this side

When Jason Ryles was getting the Eels fit in the off season, this might have been the game he had in mind. Parramatta’s pathetic capitulation in this contest last year was the eye opening moment of season 2024, where they had all the ball and dominated a Dolphins team that couldn’t get out of its own way for the first 30 minutes, only to fade to nothing in one of the most embarrassing halves of football I’ve ever had to displeasure to witness (yes, even worse than round one this year).

That was as much between the ears as it was within the lungs, but it was clear that the Eels had thrown their best punches, the Dolphins absorbed them, laughed them off then went to town on a woefully under-prepared side. While I can’t speak for a full recovery in the cranial contents department, the Eels should at least be fit enough to go the full 80 in the humidity this year. The steady improvement week on week suggests this team is finding its way, and last week the balance was found between yardage work from the outside men and big runs from the big boys in the middle.

The Raiders failed their own recent test in the rough conditions, capitulating to the Cowboys in a game they were expected to win after an impressive start to the year. Their form away from home hasn’t been great, conceding 70 in two away games outside of Vegas, which I feel safe in calling an outlier. This is a different side outside the cold confines of the capital, and hopefully different enough in Darwin to be feasted on by an improved Eels side.

Fast and Loose

Big minutes with big results last week for Junior

While the conditions might not suit it, the Raiders are going to be inspired to throw the ball around in this one. Not traditionally their forte, they carved Parramatta up last year with the early spread, exposing what became a season long weakness of the Eels to ad-lib and early attack. Melbourne found similar success in round one this year, but they also had a special group of players to execute it and found a defence that missed the whistle for the season opener by about three weeks.

If and how Parramatta can stop that threat will go a long way to deciding the contest. Xavier Savage has pace that the Eels couldn’t match in 2024, but this season the additions of Iongi and Addo-Carr even up the score somewhat. Addo-Carr makes a huge difference to the ability of the edges to mark up with his communication and general ability to read a play. Hopefully it won’t be so easy as throwing three passes on tackle two this time around.

Of course, the Raiders may go for their traditional method of attack and drag this one into a grind. Again, the conditions make this a risky bet, but many of their big men are more than capable big minute players and their backs can handle relieving the middles of their load. Jamal Fogarty is a solid controlling half with a point to prove, and if the Raiders can just tilt the field position battle a few times by forcing errors or driving a few big sets down into Parramatta territory, his short kicking game will eventually produce results.

Some big asks will be made of the Parramatta edge defence. With Lomax out we’re looking at untested combinations on both sides, and both Simonsson and Russell have had their issues with reads and decision making over the years. Will Penisini looked a lot more comfortable last week moving back to his preferred right edge, but his form on the board in 2025 hasn’t been great outside of that. That assumes the Eels can hit and stick if they do match up one-on-one; Kris and Timoko are both powerful runners that have found success against the Eels. If the retreating defensive line we’ve seen all too often this year rears its head once more, those two will be scoring close range tries.

The Game

Welcome back Bailey!

There is a lot of reason for hope in this one. Saying Dylan Brown played his best game of the year last week isn’t saying much at all, but he was legitimately strong and had the space to make an impact on the contest. The coherence of the attack will only improve with a week of (albeit interrupted thanks to the long trip) training with Dylan Walker, and Isaiah Iongi was more involved last week in attacking movements than the first month of the season combined.

In the middle we’re starting to find a balance for the big men in attack. Junior Paulo is somehow playing even more minutes this year, if Brad Arthur was running him and RCG like they were rental cars, Jason Ryles is fanging Junior around like someone else’s credit card is on the deposit. Joe O needs to lift, but Shaun Lane is steadily improving and is showing a level of consistency in his defence I am finding refreshing. I’m still on the fence about Kautoga, there is some good there but also a lot of rough moments, and if Matterson gets his chance this week he’ll smell blood and hopefully have a huge impact.

While some of this is my hope that the Raiders continue to be poor when traveling and don’t handle the conditions, I’m feeling alright about our chances here, even sans Lomax. We’ll miss the yardage work and the effort plays, but Bailey Simonsson should be adequate in the yardage cover, he has a knack for getting in between defenders and earning good play the balls, even if he isn’t a huge metre eater. The side can leave everything on the table here knowing the bye is coming up, which I will credit the NRL, is a lot better than the short turnaround we got last year.

I got some looks for tipping the Eels last week, but ultimately hope won the day, so I’m going for it again. I reckon we can spring the upset here. Let’s farewell the NT in style, boys.

Prediction: Eels 22 d Raiders 20

Man of the Match: Dylan Brown

Gol

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