It’s time for the Territory Eels’ annual trip north to Darwin, which means it’s time for my annual rant about how little the NRL does to support this initiative. Maybe because the deal is club driven, something the Eels profit handsomely from, that leads the NRL to give absolutely no consideration to turnaround times or when the game is played. Maybe some bright spark decided in the most recent deal that autumn is a better time to play in the hottest part of the country than the middle of winter. Regardless, a game that used to happen in August or June is now played in April.

This year it comes with the bonus of a short turnaround. It is well within the NRL’s power to eliminate five-day turnarounds, yet submission to the wants of broadcasters sees most clubs with two or three in a season. I doubt many of them involve such a lengthy trip across the country as this. Combined with the quirks such as South Sydney and Parramatta playing the same set of opponents over the first five weeks and the Eels managing to face three teams in a row coming off a bye, it doesn’t leave fans with a lot of faith in the system. Perhaps the draw is playing 4D chess, balancing these with two stretches of five games in a row against teams that finished outside the eight in 2022.

While the Eels found success against the Broncos in Darwin two years ago to the tune of 46-6, this is a very different Broncos team with a very different formline to those wooden spoon holders of 2021. Their pack has been dominant and their outside backs sharp, and they’ll present a tough challenge to an Eels team just finding their feet in season 2023. Let’s dig in!

Game Info

Date: Friday, April 21, 2023
Venue: TIO Stadium, Darwin
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Kasey Badger
Weather: Hot, very humid, chance of rain
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

After keeping the powder dry for the last couple of weeks, there is genuine value in selecting Parra this week.

I’ll keep it simple by taking Eels in the head to head at $2.15.

For those looking for more value, consider diving into the line/over under market. The humid conditions should see the defences struggle to keep up with the attack and it will likely be a relatively high scoring affair. If you take the Eels at +1.5/over 42.5 you will get a return of $4. Not bad!

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson.14. J’maine Hopgood 15. Brendan Hands 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Matt Doorey.

18. Jake Arthur 21. Bailey Simonsson.

After missing last week with illness Josh Hodgson returns to the starting lineup, pushing Brendan Hands back to the bench and Makahesi Makatoa out of the side. Hands was very solid in his first 80 minute run at hooker and is working his way to deserving an even time share with Hodgson, though the indifferent form of the Brit also has something to do with that.

Greig is coming off his best first grade game, but the heat will be tough for him

Brad Arthur made a late change last week to get J’maine Hopgood into the starting side, relegating Bryce Cartwright to the bench. Against a big, aggressive Broncos pack a repeat of that move makes sense. In sweltering conditions Arthur absolutely has to make good use of his bench, especially considering Wiremu Greig probably can’t play much more than a ten minute stint at full effectiveness in that heat. Dropping Makatoa for Doorey is interesting, Maka isn’t a high impact runner but he has a good motor and would have been useful here. Doorey has played well and deserves his opportunity however.

Bailey Simonsson returns from suspension on the extended bench, with Sean Russell and Haze Dunster remaining in the starting team. Neither has really impressed in their two week stints so far, but neither has Simonsson for most of his time in Blue and Gold, so best go with the young players with upside. Both will get better.

Brisbane Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan. 14. Cory Paix 15. Corey Jensen 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Martin Taupau.

18. Jesse Arthars 19. Keenan Palasia

It’s a rare sight that two full strength teams meet even two months into a season, but that’s what we have right here. Corey Oates returns from a broken jaw while Thomas Flegler and Jordan Riki have overcome scares to be named.

That Broncos forward pack is something else. While Kurt Capewell hasn’t found his Penrith form since moving up north and Billy Walters is the token “fans gotta complain about somebody” addition to the squad, the rest of that group are impressive specimens. You know all about Payne Haas, but Pat Carrigan has been a killer since coming back from an ACL last year, and Jordan Riki can be an elite line runner on his day. On the bench Corey Jensen and Martin Taupau have been in good touch too.

Us

The Eels did a good job defending their errors last week, but it won’t always be so easy. At least the errors are usually being made in attacking positions, but they often weren’t from throwing offloads or risky play, but forwards overrunning a pass or being given an impossible ball. Parramatta has shown they can play clean football this year in the Penrith win, but are yet to combine it at full effectiveness with an expansive attacking style.

Dylan Brown has quietly taken on a more mature role in the side this year

There was plenty to like about the gameplan against Canterbury. Six repeat sets, including several to start the match, forced the Bulldogs into plenty of defence, which was compounded by a level of discipline that earned a lopsided penalty count. The Broncos are the best attacking team in the competition right now, and starving them of quality possession will go a long way toward victory.

I wanted to shout out Dylan Brown, who is quietly having an effective season. He is fifth in the NRL for try assists with 6, for comparison he managed only 12 in his first three seasons of grade. He hasn’t been flashy and many are saying he isn’t playing well, but he has taken on a more senior position in the side this year, isn’t overplaying his hand and has been strong, if not a standout, in his role.

More of those X-factor moments that Dylan produced last year is the next step for the Parramatta Eels in attack. With Shaun Lane back and rounding into form and the newfound threat of Will Penisini with the ball, the Eels have a few more options for individual creative brilliance at their disposal. Add that to the ad-lib football produced by the offloading of Paulo, Matterson, Cartwright and Hopgood, and there is a lot of room for an already strong attacking side to go up another level.

On the defensive side, last weekend was a nice boost to the differentials and it has to build confidence to keep a side to one try, but not much can be taken from restricting an anaemic Bulldogs attack. This week presents a much sterner test. Brisbane are scoring from anywhere on the park, have individual weapons everywhere and a fullback who is icing every half opportunity presented to him. I don’t think the Eels are as bad defensively as the opening stretch indicated, but we’re hardly an elite defensive side either. I’m confident of improvement now our full starting lineup is together and combinations can develop, but a lot of eyes will be on Dunster and Russell to show more in their decision making than the men they replaced.

Them

The Broncos lead all of the attacking stats you would expect from a team that has posted nearly 30 points per game this year. Metres, post-contact metres, offloads, line breaks, tackle breaks, they’re at or near the top in all categories. They’re attacking from anywhere on the field and creating tries with their speed outside and individual talents.

Reg was a one man destroyer last week

They’ve managed this with a league leading error count and one of the worst completion rates in the competition. It goes to show how completion percentage is overrated as a contributor to winning, but it does mean that good ball opportunities will be there for Parramatta to take. They may be able to counter the field position battle with long range attack, but they will eventually crack if they give the Eels too many good ball opportunities.

It may also be that the Broncos aren’t as good as their record indicates. While nobody can discount a victory over the defending premiers, since that round one upset Brisbane has beaten the Cowboys, Dragons, Dolphins, Tigers and Titans, while losing to the Raiders. There isn’t a premiership contender among that lot, especially now that we can see North Queensland is not the same side it was last year.

Further, they’ve run up their attacking stats against those terrible defensive sides. The Dragons were a real shot at the win for about 60 minutes of their clash before crumbling late. Putting 40 on the Tigers or Titans isn’t exactly hall of fame material either. Cobbo, Walsh, Farnworth, Mam and Staggs are all excellent attacking players, but there is a difference between running downhill against inferior opposition and matching it with the best. This game will be a test for the Broncos as well as the Eels.

The Game

Against a resolute Raiders side the Broncos reverted to old habits that saw them collapse and miss finals football last year. There are still mental weaknesses in this team and if the Eels can start well I think they can instil some doubt and crack their resolve. Parramatta are traditionally a side teams always think they have a chance against, just look at the Tigers two weeks ago, but a traditional Brad Arthur front loading of effort would let the Broncos know they are in a game, and if a few errors are forced and the scoreboard ticks over, they are vulnerable to collapse.

The conditions will exacerbate this. Doing a lot of defensive work in the Darwin sauna, especially if the predictions of rain hold true, will almost certainly lead to an imbalance of fatigue and a big disadvantage later in the game. Brisbane are well equipped for a middle-based power game, but it would play into the Eels hands and away from the Broncos biggest advantage: outside back star power. Going to the edges and testing Dunster, Russell and Sivo early on could force errors in slippery conditions, giving the Eels more chance to grind through the middle.

I’m worried about how the Eels can handle the speed and footwork of Staggs, Farnworth, Mam, Walsh and Cobbo, but traditionally the Parramatta edges are vulnerable to shape and execution, not individual brilliance. Parramatta’s long maligned edge defence isn’t beaten by mismatches on paper but mismatches in strategy, and that isn’t the strong suit of Kevin Walters and Brisbane. Reece Walsh is fast enough to chime in on a backline movement and create an overlap, but are we going to see well structured attacking plays that target individual weaknesses? I’m not so sure.

It’s a high risk game, and if it goes against the Eels early I worry for what the scoreline could be, but that goes the other way too. I’m confident in our full strength pack, I’m worried about our raw backline (but I’d be even more worried about the men they replaced). It should be a ripping game, one I’ll watch biting into my own knuckles, but I’m going to tip us to get the job done.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 28 d Brisbane 22

Man of the Match: Dylan Brown

Gol

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