The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 11, 2022: Eels vs Sea Eagles

It’s make or break time for the Parramatta Eels who, despite holding the two biggest wins of season 2022, are on the wrong side of the top four divide in an increasingly intense race for a finals football second chance. With troops coming back and weekly talk of consistency, respect and playing for the full 80, excuses are running thin for the men in Blue and Gold.

Bitter rivals Manly come to CommBank Stadium this weekend with plenty of their own issues but if they should have confidence against any opponent, it is Parramatta. They’ve outclassed the Eels in recent matchups with a forward pack playing beyond themselves and a Tom Trbojevic led attack that the Parramatta edge defence has had no answer for.

If there was ever a week for the Eels to pull it all together and put on a hiding, against a traditional rival and at home after a month on the road is the best time for it. Parramatta has done its best work away from home this year, and I’d like to enjoy being in the stands for a big win against a tough opponent, please. On with the preview!

Game Info

Date: Friday May 20, 2022
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 7:55 PM AEST
Referee: Ben Cummins
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 145, Eels 54, Sea Eagles 87, Drawn 4
Odds: Eels $1.40, Sea Eagles $3.00
Lines: Eels -7.5, total points 40.5
Fact: Manly suck and should be moved to Perth or the bottom of the ocean

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

It’s starting to look like the punting tip should only feature every second week! If I’m going to tip Parra to win, a fortnightly wager is looking the most likely to produce a return.

Nonetheless, based on a weekly $20 investment, those following the speculation would be a massive $27 in profit. It’s not going to get you an early retirement, but right now it provides a “free bet” this week.

Given the lack of value in selecting Parra in many markets, I’m looking to the try scorer market for a decent return.

In this week’s podcast, I selected Dylan Brown to be first try scorer, but I won’t be that bold on the punt. Instead, I’ll take him in the “score the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd try“ market. That selection is offering odds of $5.50, which looks generous to me.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

 

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Hayze Perham 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Marata Niukore 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Nathan Brown.

18. Wiremu Greig 19. Jake Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Bryce Cartwright 22. Sean Russell 23. Elie El-Zakhem 24. Maika Sivo.

A few changes for the Eels as Marata Niukore returns from injury and Ryan Matterson displaces Nathan Brown from the starting side. Matterson’s form off the bench has been sensational and he deserves a start, though a first change middle rotation of Nathan Brown, Kaufusi and Makatoa doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Brown did have his best game of the year off the bench however, back in round two. With Martin Taupau coming off the bench for Manly, these guys will need to stand up.

Hope you’re back for longer than a week this time, Simba

Niukore is a welcome return, an aggressive runner with positional flexibility to cover some backline spots as well as middle and edge. Brad Arthur will need to change up his bench rotations to accommodate Niukore, he shouldn’t be getting a token ten like Bryce Cartwright has. There are so many rotational options for BA that I’m just going to sit back and observe rather than guess, but my ideal scenario is Shaun Lane seeing reduced minutes and finding a way to get Niukore into the game in the first half, perhaps by shifting Papali’i from edge to middle for a short stint.

Hayze Perham retains his wing position for another week, with Sean Russell and Maika Sivo named in NSW Cup. Had Cup played last week I expect Russell would be starting on Friday, but Sivo will certainly need a couple of runs in reggies to get fitness and confidence in his knee. Christian Tuipulotu will be marking up opposite Hayze, and has probably spent all week catching high kicks.

Manly Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Morgan Harper 4. Tolutau Koula 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Sean Keppie 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Andrew Davey 13. Jake Trbojevic. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Josh Schuster 16. Martin Taupau 17. Toafofoa Sipley.

18.Ethan Bullemor 19. Kurt de Luis 20. Kaeo Weekes 21. Jamie Humphries 22. Alec Tuitavake 23. Zac Fulton 24. Jacob Sykes.

It’s a new look backline for Manly, with Brad Parker and Jason Saab both out injured. Morgan Harper gets a reprieve after being steamrolled back to reserve grade by Siosifa Talakai earlier in the season, while highly regarded rookie Tolutau Koula and “who is that guy” Christian Tuipulotu take the other spots.

In the pack, Martin Taupau hasn’t had his best season and is now starting from the bench, where Josh Schuster is also returning from injury. There is a significant former Parramatta presence in the Sea Eagles pack, as you would expect for a team that gets more juniors from western Sydney than the northern beaches. Andrew Davey and Kieran Foran are the only players to actually pull on an Eels first grade jersey, while Josh Aloiai, Sean Keppie, Josh Schuster and Haumole Olakau’atu spent time in the Parramatta junior ranks.

Olakau’atu was in the media this week talking it up as a revenge game, which is a bit rich from a guy who got his start at Manly by giving Manase Fainu a ride to training and didn’t establish himself as a first grade footballer until he was 22. Still, undue motivation is motivation all the same, and he’ll need to be put in his place like the kid not good enough to make the Eels SG Ball squad that he is.

The Game

The talk this week has, as usual, been about Parramatta competing for 80 minutes. Another slow start and a loss that could have been a win will do that, and I’m pretty sick of hearing it. Put up or shut up Parramatta, you can either lift for every game or you can’t. Limping into the finals and digging deep to lose valiantly against a good team isn’t going to cut it this year, and it is looking like the battle for third and fourth spots on the ladder will be contested by as many as seven teams. Winning the ones you should is more important than ever.

He isn’t at a 10cm height disadvantage this time, but Hayze will still be a target

This is indeed, one of those “should” games for the Eels. Manly hasn’t come close to competing with any decent team this season, and judging by last week their best player is banged up. Rugby league’s reversion to the mean after a couple of years of V’looney Tunes football has not been kind to Manly, who are not finding the same space on the edge and aren’t competing strongly in the middle of the field, where football games are once again being won.

The Manly right edge in 2022 is making Sea Eagles fans look with jealousy at the defensive prowess of Blake Ferguson and Waqa Blake. Morgan Harper has been responsible for a lot of that, and while Tolatau Koula has played there in recent weeks that hasn’t improved them much. It is an issue on all fronts: communication, technique and decision making, and Parramatta needs to throw shape at the edge early and often. Target Daly Cherry Evans, not just with runners but with decisions. Dig into the line, throw the late pass, have option runners. It doesn’t take much to break through, but it won’t just happen by moving laterally.

Manly aren’t getting much going through the middle of the field. The decline of Martin Taupau has been drastic, his numbers this year are comparable to Oregon Kaufusi. Many of their middle forwards have spent time on the sidelines, while Josh Schuster has missed most of the season thus far. That has left Haumole Olakau’atu to shoulder the load, which has got him in the frame for Origin, but he is but one man. Andrew Davey runs a good line and can occasionally shine in an effort play, but he’s no superstar. Jake Trbojevic is the Isaah Yeo we have at home, not as dangerous running the ball, not as good a distributor. On paper the Eels pack should have their way with this group, and that is how it needs to play out come Friday night.

Just look at the splendour of this man. He is going to feast this week.

This is a Manly group that has outperformed the Eels middle in seasons prior, and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves proved last week you shouldn’t write off champion forwards easily, meaning Martin Taupau could go ham here. Olakau’atu is a game breaker and needs to be shut down, while Aloiai has a strong carry and is another who has played career games against the Eels in seasons gone. The Parramatta forwards can’t take this one for granted, but if they come out fired up they should have too much for the Sea Eagles. One area to watch is for offloads; Manly has been one of the worst offloading teams in 2022 and second phase play has been where they’ve killed the Eels in recent wins.

If Manly do get rolling, we are in big trouble. Tom Trbojevic is the ultimate downhill runner and space just opens up for him if he gets to run in shape off quick play-the-balls. He is Parramatta kryptonite, the weapon perfectly designed to exploit our defensive tendencies should we end up on the back foot. What is especially dangerous is his ability to execute from mid-field, where the eels love a compressed defence and have to react by scrambling wide. They haven’t managed to execute this much in 2022, but if Trbojevic is fit and Manly are playing with confidence it will be a huge threat here.

The Lowdown

At the start of the year I circled these matches against Manly and Souths as the “real deal” games for Parramatta. The Eels had already proven they could beat Melbourne and Penrith in 2021, and that has played out in 2022, but the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs have carved Parramatta to pieces in the last few seasons and Brad Arthur needs to come up with an answer. Neither the Rabbitohs or Sea Eagles have had a happy start to 2022, but this game remains as a huge test in my books. The Eels need to make a statement here.

I wasn’t just being dismissive when I said Manly haven’t even competed with a good team this year. Their wins come against the Tigers, Titans, Knights, Raiders and Bulldogs. Souths, Brisbane, Penrith, Sydney and Cronulla thrashed them to various degrees. It carries on a theme from 2021, where unfortunately for Parramatta they proved to be the only top six team Manly was capable of beating.

Ryan Matterson’s incredible form has been rewarded with a start

You can’t write off the Sea Eagles chances, but something clearly isn’t right with Manly. They knew it from early on, Des Hasler and the Manly brass were putting pressure on the NRL through the media from the pre-season about rule changes and killing the precious “flow” of the game. Nobody benefited from V’landy-ball more than Manly, so it was understandable, but how bad they have been now that the game has tilted back towards defenders a touch is remarkable.

That won’t mean much on Friday night if the Manly forwards are offloading and running like they haven’t all season and Tom Trbojevic is running freely and putting on chances with every touch. Stopping that momentum early is crucial, the Sea Eagles need to get that feeling from the start that this is going to be another one of those games, and not a potential turning point in a so far disappointing season. No opening 20 minutes will be more important this season for Parramatta. Dominance is a must.

I’m putting my faith in Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Ryan Matterson and Isaiah Papali’i, who are the three players that stand up every week for Parramatta. Junior Paulo needs a big game, and I think Nathan Brown from the bench will see him improve his level of impact. Marata Niukore gave us a taste of what we’ve been missing in his cameo a few weeks ago, and he’ll be fired up off the bench too. It really is as simple as “win the middle, win the game”, and I’m betting that the Roosters punching the forwards in the mouth last week hurt more than they let on. It’ll be a fired up group of big men in Blue and Gold, and they’ll put Manly to the sword.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 34 d Manly 18

Man of the Match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

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10 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 11, 2022: Eels vs Sea Eagles

  1. Milo

    Great read Gol, and i hope you are right about the result. Manly is a team we love to dislike with a passion and I feel this will go to the wire, as Des will get the best out of them this week, and we need to simply play well for 80 mins.

  2. Johnno

    Junior has been down, but he always is around origin time, might be saving himself. Dont get me wrong terrific player and generally good contributer, but this has happened around this period before( could just be we are nearly at the seasons half way mark), that aside we need everyone to contribute their bes, last week we had about 5-6 players really having a dig. Go parra

  3. Prometheus

    I notice Lane wasn’t in your stand up every week category. He’s definitely a liability after half time as he fades quickly. BA has to replace him much earlier.

  4. Offside

    This is a danger game Manly always lift against us last year they were out of form then touched us up at home they play that style that worries us playing with width.
    My expectations are low but I hope we get up but we need alot of improvement

  5. Leigh

    Great report Gol. Haven’t always enjoyed your style but very impressed with this post; it’s ideas, accuracy and presentation.

  6. pete

    Great read Gol as always.
    It’s interesting how down our middles (run Meters) were last week yet we almost got the win. Also our execution was a bit clunky. Hopefully we are getting these games out of our system for the season. We really need to get this win.
    Go Eels!!

  7. Shaun

    Quietly confident. And thinking back to the game at old Parra stadium in 2014 when after a Sandow had a try disallowed, the crowd turned feral as we only could, lifted the team, Semi scored a 95 metre and Parra won. RCG for first try scorer.

  8. !0 Year Member

    Defensively, our team cannot handle second phase play. It we don’t shutdown the primary ball carrier we will bring the Eagles into form.

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