The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 21, 2021: Eels vs Rabbitohs

Game Info

Date: Friday, 6 August 2021

Venue: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast

Kick Off: 8:05PM AEST

Referee: Ashley Klein

Head-to-head:  Played 130, Parramatta 55, South Sydney 72, Drawn 3

Odds: Eels $3.15 Rabbitohs $1.35

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

South Sydney 38 d Parramatta 20, Stadium Australia, R12, 2021

South Sydney 38 d Parramatta 24, Bankwest Stadium, Semi Final, 2020

South Sydney 38 d Parramatta 0, Bankwest Stadium, R16, 2020

Parramatta 26 d South Sydney 14, Bankwest Stadium, R12, 2019

Background

Nope. Not doing it.

Parramatta plays South Sydney in a game of rugby league this Friday night. It will be played at the Gold Coast, without crowds. Parramatta has not done very well against South Sydney in recent times. It will be hard.

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week’s loss without scoring a point was never going to help our punting cause.

Based on that Roosters result, it would be easy to understand why any Eels supporter would be reluctant to invest any coin on a win.

With that in mind, I’m looking to back an in-form Eels player to score a try.

Dylan Brown has constantly threatened opposition defences since returning from suspension. A correct ruling from the bunker last round denied Dylbags a place on the try scorers list over three consecutive weeks.

Brown is at odds of $3.60 to score a try at any time. If you think he can make up for last week’s disallowed try by scoring a double, you will get $19.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties


How we look

I suppose one good thing about the Eels in recent weeks is they appear to have improved in the area where South Sydney has continually torn them to shreds. The defensive combination of Blake Ferguson, Tom Opacic and Jake Arthur was destroyed by the Rabbitohs left edge attack on its debut back in round 12, but Ferguson has passed admittedly limited tests in the last two games defending alongside Opacic and Penisini, while going from Arthur to Dylan Brown may be the biggest defensive upgrade you could make in a single position across the NRL. The Rabbitohs have scored 38 points in each of the last three contests against the Eels, Parramatta needs to halve that total to be any chance here.

Never leave again. Never. Leave. Again.

Most of the defensive deficiencies against the Roosters come down to low effort play. That’s not exactly a positive assessment, but effort is more easily fixed than technique or structure. I’m not going to blame the team for mentally checking out of that contest considering how impotent the attack was, though I’d prefer they held it together in any tough situation rather than throwing in the towel. The defensive resolve was there against Canberra so it isn’t like this is a trend, for now I’m going to write off the defensive part of the Roosters game as a one-off.

What isn’t a one-off is that attack. I’ve developed a deeper appreciation for Mitchell Moses in the last two weeks, as in this exact attacking structure he manages to make things happen where Jake Arthur was just buried every time he caught the ball. Imagine if we played in a way that helped Moses instead of presenting a challenge for him to overcome every time he catches a pass. It’s probably not getting fixed this late in the season, but I’d like to see backline shifts start a little closer to the posts with the halfback taking a shorter pass on the run. Maybe just run every attacking play like it is a short side raid. Teams have figured out how to rush the Eels out of their attacking shape, and with how deep the first receiver stands and how flat his outside men are I don’t see a way to just “quick shift” around the rush.

As Sixties said in the Spotlight, until the last two weeks the Eels base attack has been getting the job done this season. Forward dominance, Reed picking runners, the wingers barging over and tries off the boot don’t draw the praise of Melbourne’s ad-lib brilliance, Penrith’s clinical edge running or Souths’ lethal left side combinations, but they sure count the same on the scoreboard. South Sydney is not an elite defensive unit and these ‘go to’ plays will be enough to win this game, if executed properly.

Where my issue comes is that these plays are more easily defended and countered than an effective structure that forces a defence to make choices and thus mistakes. “Eels Footy” relies on beating players one-on-one, where structures can be varied to challenge defenders that think they know what is coming from watching tape. It’s why the Rabbitohs’ left edge works so well; just last week Cody Walker preyed on a defensive line that overcommitted outside by throwing the cheeky inside ball, while last time we played them he hit Gagai short when we expected long and Johnston long when we covered short for a try every time they went that way.

If Parramatta wants to win a premiership it has to be in the style of “you know what’s coming, but good luck stopping it”. That requires a significant advantage over any opposition in what you are trying to do. The Eels pack can be that dominant, but to beat the best teams on the biggest stages, it will require perfection and taking advantage of those opportunities when they have been earned. It means a single minded focus on doing what they do best and not wasting time with sideways play. I’d love to see the Eels start that march this weekend against a pack they should beat on paper but have struggled to get over in recent years.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Shaun Lane 16. Marata Niukore 17. Will Smith. 18. Haze Dunster 19. Ray Stone 20. Jake Arthur 21. Makahesi Makatoa.

One big in, one big out for the Eels with Mitchell Moses making his return while Reagan Campbell-Gillard will miss some time with a groin strain. Moses is a sight for sore eyes, a massive upgrade over Jake Arthur in every way; poise, kicking game, playmaking and most importantly (and surprisingly considering his reputation a few years ago), defence.

Stand up big man, we need you.

We’ll miss Reg an awful lot, and now is the time for his middle mates to stand up for the finals run. Junior Paulo has been quietly average for a long stretch this season, certainly not in Origin form. He needs to be a wrecking ball in the middle, earning those offloads rather than going into contact looking for them. I hope he can flick that switch this week as another mediocre effort will make this a very tough forwards battle to win.

Marata Niukore is also back, hopefully not underdone as he is one of the few men in this pack I would trust to give a complete effort in any situation. He will need to come out with an edge against a Rabbitohs bench that (and I feel I say this every time we play them) is significantly inferior on paper. Oregon Kaufusi also needs to step up, he hasn’t taken the leap we had hoped for from a young buck. His hands have been a concern. Like Starks in Winterfell, there must always be a butterfingers in the Eels pack, but Shaun Lane inherited that title from Peni Terepo and we don’t need two. 

Blake Ferguson retains his spot over Haze Dunster, and this is his big moment. If Fergo can hold out the Rabbitohs left edge, the spot is his for the rest of the season. If he goes how he usually goes against Walker, Mitchell, Gagai and co then he finishes the season by the Gold Coast Mercure pool. 

South Sydney

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Josh Mansour 3. Dane Gagai 4. Taane Milne 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Mark Nicholls 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray. 14. Benji Marshall 15. Jacob Host 16. Tevita Tatola 17. Jaydn Su’A. 18. Braidon Burns 19. Patrick Mago 20. Blake Taaffe 21. Davvy Moale. 

The Rabbitohs get some troops back for this one with Cam Murray, Benji Marshall and Tevita Tatola all named, while Campbell Graham, Liam Knight and most notably Alex Johnston remain on the sidelines. That leaves a makeshift right edge of Milne and Paulo, and Josh Mansour fills in at the end of the lethal left for Johnston. The changes haven’t taken any bite from the Rabbitohs attack, but it might mean they can be pressured into uncharacteristic mistakes.

The South Sydney pack has won a clear points decision over the Eels in each of the last three encounters, infuriating considering the names in both squads. Mark Nicholls has had a late career surge in the six again era, while Tom Burgess has been a battering ram that breaks the line far more often than a prop should. 

This is also the Rabbitohs’ best back row combination, with Koloamatangi offering powerful edge running, Arrow a relentless workrate and Murray an unfair combination of both, plus the quickest play the ball in football. The Eels need to win the tackle, either through power or wrestle, and we know they can’t wrestle. 

Intangibles

Maybe bubble life doesn’t agree with the Eels. Two games and two unexpected losses suggest that, though identifying a specific reason for the flat effort last week eludes me. The shocking bubble haircuts may be a cry for help? Souths have put 50 and 60 on in the two bubble weeks, and haven’t been giving each other hair styles, but they have also played a level of opposition you could charitably call “ordinary” and it didn’t take a lockdown for Jai Arrow to sport one of the worst hairdos in league.

It won’t be too hot up on the Gold Coast this weekend, especially compared to Mackay, and the track should be dry. This is a double header with the Raiders/Dragons game, but the pitch has held up well to prior back-to-backs and the stands will be empty thanks to the Queensland COVID lockdowns. 

Ashley Klein is the referee for his fifth Eels game this year. We’re 3-1 so far, with the only loss being to Penrith. He has only controlled one Souths game, their win against the Roosters in round 3. If we lose a close one mute his name on Twitter, trust me.

The Opposition

An important thing to note about South Sydney is that they haven’t played a real opponent in two months, and that opponent was the Eels (let’s call ourselves a real team here for the purposes of the preview). In the three weeks before that game, Souths lost to Penrith and Melbourne by 44 and 50 points respectively. Beating Blake Ferguson’s edge defence in round 12 started an eight game winning streak for the Bunnies against the Cowboys, Broncos, Tigers, Cowboys, Bulldogs, Warriors and Dragons. They’ve put up a few big scores in some of those games (Dragons, Cowboys, Broncos) and barely beaten terrible teams in others (Bulldogs, Knights), but South Sydney is largely untested and unproven against real opposition. If Parramatta can step up here they might catch Souths a little flat after beating on battlers for two months.

The left side of the South Sydney line is now held by the ghost of Josh Mansour, who is matched only by Blake Ferguson in the brain snap department. Mansour should be targeted mercilessly with kicks and numbers, give him as many opportunities to make a mistake as possible. Maika Sivo vs. Jaxson Paulo is a huge physical mismatch on the other edge, and the raw combination between Milne and Paulo should be tested as well. Benji Marshall when he is out there is an easy target for bigger runners too. 

The hard part will be stopping Latrell, Walker and Gagai from chewing the Eels right edge up as they have done consistently for the last two years. I should again just copy and paste from previous previews, but the first step is to give them few opportunities in the red zone by winning the middle and controlling play. That will deliver the benefit of taking Damien Cook out of the game as a bonus, a player who has played the entirety of his good games in the last two years against Parramatta. 

Then we just need to defend as a unit on the edge. Blake Ferguson has to follow Tom Opacic exactly, trusting him to make one-on-one tackles and following him up in the line if he decides to put pressure on Mitchell or Walker. Let Mansour try and beat the cover defence to the corner, I like the chances of Dylan Brown or Gutho getting there first. Opacic for his part needs to trust Dylan Brown and his reads, while our edge forwards just need to show hustle and high effort, particularly covering back on the inside. Looking at you, again, Shaun Lane. The Rabbitohs’ left edge is almost certain to get theirs, Parramatta just needs to limit that to a couple of tries instead of a gift four points every time they shift that way. 

The story

The limited tests South Sydney has faced in 2021 suggest they are there to be beaten. Melbourne accounted for them easily, twice, and Penrith belted them too. A soft draw will secure them a top four berth, as will their ability to win the games they should, but the two best teams in the league have handled them easily and beating on the Warriors  and Dragons means little to premiership bona fides. 

The Gun needs to fire this week

The dregs have managed to score on Souths. New Zealand put on 22, the Bulldogs 24, Tigers 22. Parramatta have managed to put a few tries on the Rabbitohs in the recent meetings, just not nearly enough to cover for leaking 38 points per game. If the Eels can just hold on that right edge, they are a big chance here. Sure, that’s like banking on an Australian runner holding two Kenyans out in the final straight, but it is at least a hope, however unlikely.

No matter how well the outside defence plays, Parramatta needs to score points. The sideways attack last week looked like a child over exaggerating to a parental instruction, when Papa Sterlo told little boy Brad to play with some width, his players start throwing the ball across field without purpose, glaring defiantly at their exasperated parents and sneering “like thiiiiiis?” It was painful to watch, indeed it was the first game in many years I turned off with 15 to go. I’m in lockdown with a toddler, I don’t need more suffering in my life.

I just hope the Eels keep it simple. Hard middle running, good offloads and finding room for our outside men to put on footwork. Field position and possession control leading to traditional Eels tries: kicks to Matto, barge-overs from Sivo, rumbling runs from Papali’i, freak corner putdowns from Fergo. On the other end is where the game will be won or lost, and while I don’t have confidence in Ferguson and Opacic, a couple of plays last week where Fergo followed Opa in defence gives me hope.

It has been a miserable two weeks, and Parramatta fans have not been taking losses well. Everybody from Brad Arthur to Gutho to the trainers have been earmarked for sacking by frustrated fans, and just to make social media bearable again Parramatta needs to put in a true effort here. A loss is okay, but the Eels need to be in this one until the 80th minute. I’m choosing to take a big gulp of blind optimism and suggest the Eels figure it out this week and get things back on track. If not, well, the gold medal match in Olympic Table Tennis starts about 8:30.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 28 d South Sydney Rabbitohs 24

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

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21 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 21, 2021: Eels vs Rabbitohs

  1. Max

    Great summary, I also don’t mind having a hard run home we really could rattle some sides if we beat them and gain much needed confidence.

    1. Anonymous

      Is tonight about the win or the way Parra plays? I’m not sure. There is a monkey on our back with Souths. Beating them would be good for the confidence.

  2. Zero58

    Unlike the past two games Parra has their best seventeen available.
    I have held back from commenting this week because I was extremely disappointed with our outcome.
    I am a BA fan and I believe he does the best he can but, I seriously wonder why he did not put our best seventeen on the park for the last two games.
    If Bryce Cartwright is not a better player than Jacob then I have been watching the wrong game and know nothing. Jacob is simply not ready for championship games at this stage of his career.
    BA talked about dumb plays last week but, it was compounded by dumb dumb dumb team selections
    This is a better team and I hope this week BA uses more thought with bench rotations.
    You might be excused for thinking it was mid season with his team selection for the Raiders and Easts.
    Last week was BA’s fault. They were never going to win with that team.

    This week – we hope – will turn the corner otherwise don’t buy any GF tickets.

  3. pete

    Thanks Gol. Great read.
    I really hope we can turn our form around. The bunnies have been putting points on opposition’s. I have my fingers crossed and hope Moses can make a big difference in attack. His defence has been very good this year too. I really hope we can win but a narrow loss I’ll except… Anything less will be very disappointing.
    Go Eels!!

  4. Wilhelmina

    I guess you wrote this before the team was culled last night Gol, with Fergo out of the side. I saw one site claimed it was due to the cut on his head (which looked shocking, to be fair), while another reckoned it was a calf injury. From what I’ve seen, Dunster’s defensive technique was very different – he was prepared to show his opposite the sideline, and say take it if you can.

    I’m certainly not feeling any kind of confidence, after the lacklustre performances the past two weeks, but I’ll be horrified if we aren’t scoring points against Souths’ defence – they simply haven’t been very good against the best sides. As you say, the trick will be holding out against their offence, which is largely dependent on effort plays and working as a team.

    On a side note – I really wish the preview came out a day before the game. You don’t get nearly the credit and attention your posts deserve Gol, because so many simply won’t get time to read and comment. I’m only here due to working from home!

    1. Gol Post author

      Yeah late team changes have a habit of ruining the preview! I think Dunster has been very good defensively and is an upgrade from Blake in that department. If Haze can shut down that left edge then Blake shouldn’t be getting back into the team. I like Fergo and wanted to see him get his chance to prove he’s turned it around, but I definitely feel more comfortable with Dunster out there.

      1. Colin Hussey

        The team changes basically improve at least from my perspective as I rate Dunster over Fergs, I hope he plays well and makes it very hard to be removed from the team, he was getting incremental improvements prior to BA handing Fergs back his wing spot, didn’t really help much.

        Our forwards if they are wanting the win, are better than Souths but, not to be taken likely, their backs have speed in more than one player, and with Benji on the bench they lose nothing should Reynolds need replacing, Renoylds I believe is likely the main danger man, with Mitchel not far off him, speed and swerve is his biggest attribute but Reynolds kicking ability is often deadly especially the high rolling kicks.

        I look to a win, but will be very tight.

        1. Raptor Jesus

          Anyone still rate Dunster over Fergs AFTER the Souths game?

          Honestly, I have no idea what you guys see in Dunster. He is a waif that gets folded in every tackle. Fergo doesn’t get folded like him and their defense is pretty similar to be honest. I’d give the athletic edge to Fergo on the scramble but I don’t think either of them are LOCKDOWN DEFENDERS.

          Dunster’s only effective game was against the GC Titans. He is a myth. Souffs tore him to shreds last night and he had zero answers at all.

          Guess what? It’s pretty hard defending against Souffs left edge, and this site has been guilty of scapegoating Fergo when he was clearly not the only problem.

          The night Fergo got toasted by Souffs, Opacic was awful inside him and so was Jake Arthur. Yet this site SOLELY BLAMED FERGO. You all gleefully put the boot into him. Even back at the dragons loss, Shelley and others put the boot and blame into Fergo.

          This site owes Ferguson an apology.

          I notice you are all quiet now that you realise BA doesn’t have the answers. Our season is over. BA can’t outfox this big dog contenders and now we need to find a person who can for 2022.

  5. Milo

    Thanks Gol, great preview as always.
    I am not confident at all, Souths play like the Broncos of old to me, and we used to play them well with B Smith as coach back then; slow things down, kick with variety, and frustrate them.
    I am not sure again this week….if Souths get away by halftime, I do not think we will have it in us to come back. If we are good enough then we can do it…but form is not kind to us.
    We must be better than Souths in the forwards firstly, and then kick well in general play, and limit their chances in our 20-30 m zone.

  6. Anonymous

    Brilliant write up as usual……very funny especially the like thiiiiiissss!!!!
    It was very very embarrassing 😳

    Well played! Hope I can say that about a Parra tonight

  7. Anonymous

    No team in the last 20years has won a premiership with out a indigenous player we have 2 1has played for his country and state can’t get the ball when Waqa plays and the other is known for his attacking ability was playing hooker in SG cup I say the team was cruising until Waqa came back the bloke can’t pass a ball and always cutting back inside where the defence is coming if BA can’t figure that out 9years at the club time for him to move on

  8. Scott

    Ashley Klein hates Parra… he is constantly looking for ways to penalise them, always telling them to roll away and get up… yet let’s South’s lay all over Parra

    1. BDon

      Sivo got pushed backed down, not once, twice (by Gagai I think) when we couldn’t buy a break. And how does Mitchell go unchecked for high contact in Sivo’s try? He also crowded Mahoney then when Mahoney does it to him throws a push punch.
      But, we weren’t good enough. Simple as that.

  9. Steele

    I suppose we are all emotional after that. I felt like we played ok for the first 20 or so, and that haze went alright too. Not an easy assignment at all for the kid.

    On a more negative note, i Have always loved what BA has brought to the eels, but he lost me tonight. It’s clear now we are in all sorts of trouble and he’s not reading the game conditions well, the confidence is rattled and he’s been making poor decisions.

    Reedy was dragged off when we needed him most against raiders 2 weeks ago played to death in a game gone at minute 50 tonight. Brad has no proper concern for reed or he would have pulled him and used will smith with 10 to go. Now Reed is busted, and seems to be gone for the year. I’m shattered for him & his family. Whom i have had the good fortune of meeting once.

    Bad luck injuries happen thats true and its not directly brad’s fault but certainly a consequence of the poor team management and an example of a lack of coaching nous on display tonight.

    Front loading effort chasing collisions efforts being there etc et al ad nauseum. These are not the words of a coach with his finger on the pulse of the modern game and its not been the performances of a team that trusts their coach or game plan. The last few weeks. And now as good as the progress that BA has helped us make has been, the late season fades have tipped the scale to an overbalance in the other direction. He must do the honorable thing and resign his position at seasons end. We have to look to the future with confidence, and it obvious the team is not happy with things the way they are.

    Brad has been almost miraculous in his efforts to drag us out of the mire but we are out now and the time has come for us to take the next steps into the upper echelons of the league and He is not the coach for the job.

    I love my eels, far too much actually and way more than my neighbors appreciate after a loss or good win. And ill never stop supporting the boys. But im hurting for them and for Reedy tonight. And there must be some consequences for another faltering end of season run.

    1. Max

      Good comments Steele. I think BA treats his players as cattle and are expendable. Without Reedy and RCG they might as well start preparing for next season. Start blooding his other young Rouse hill rhino players.

    2. Raptor Jesus

      Well said.

      BA has no idea how to use the bench properly. Back when we had Nathan Peats, he played him 80 minutes a game until he burned him out too. Peats broke his neck, dislocated his elbow and all sorts of other nasty injuries that stilted his potential and killed his career as BA threw him into the meat grinder for 80 minutes a week until he was broken.

      Now the same has happened to poor Reedy.

      1. Steele

        I’ve cooled down alot today, but whenever i see those images of Reedy in distress, i think of JA’s face as he was getting destroyed defensively by South’s earlier this year – he was being traumatized by that game. And i think of Peats’ and how hard he worked and i recall several games with young Tep Moeroa having a limp arm dangling by his side but he was allowed to play on.

        As i said and many have said before, BA has done great things for Parra including realigning our expectations as fan’s – we expect to win these days, with good reason. Our squad is solid, if not legit top 4.

        But weighing up the few things we have, the damage to young players, the late season fades, our lack of confidence/coaching to throw consistent, repeatable shapes during games and His at times stubborn refusal to make needed changes to the team list or players on ground during games. And there are many examples. Wall of Blake for one. 2018 first 6 rounds another.

        I can’t support our coach past this year, i was happy to do so as brad like us really loves parra and his family is invested in the club which i respect. But he is too close to this now, he needs some professional distance and for another coach to take the reigns if we are going to improve our performance under pressure and get back where we truly need to be on the premiership podium holding the trophy aloft.

        Here is to hoping, BA makes me eat all of these words and pulls us together for a miraculous run home. He deserves a decent finish to the year, but more than that the players like Ice/Marata/etc deserve to go out with a bang and even more so we deserve it as long suffering fans. Go parra!!!

        1. Raptor Jesus

          Well said. We need a radical change. Our team looks lost, tired, confused, defeated.

          Bring in fresh blood!
          Makatoa needs a run!
          Hipgrave for more than 15 minutes!
          Lussick!
          Penisini!
          Greig if he’s fit!
          Oldfield? Maybe?
          Cartwright more game time!

          Opacic needs a holiday. Sivo needs a holiday. Even Gutho looks like he needs one. Our season is cooked. We are literally in free fall. It is time to try SOMETHING.

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