Origin is over, and the race to the finals begins! I’m not naive or hopeful enough to start making calculations for the Eels to make the eight after the impressive win last week, especially since six of our last nine are against current finals contenders, but if the Eels can just keep the heads down, plug away at some victories and some magic happens, maybe we can talk in a month.

For all the guff I give “hope” in these previews; accusing it of being a killer, saying it is instilled only in fools, that kind of thing, it’s an important part of the rugby league supporter process. Why would we give over so much of our happiness to an entity and the 19 players that represent it on a given week, without so much as a hint of control in their performance, if not for a desperate addiction to things like hope? Better days are always around the corner with hope by your side.

That’s a lot of words to avoid talking about this week’s game. The Roosters have been decimated by Origin resting, or to put it another way, are so confident in besting the challenge presented by Parramatta that they can rest their Origin players. That confidence is well earned, holding a 10-3 advantage head-to-head over the Eels in the last decade. The last time we managed back-to-back wins over the tricolours was 2007, and since that contest the Roosters have gone 18-7 over the Eels. South Sydney might be our current nemesis side, but the Roosters have earned a lifetime achievement award for being a team that delivers misery to Parramatta more often than not. Is hope enough to overcome the weight of history? Let’s dig into the preview and find out!

Also, an apology for missing the preview and grades for that amazing win last weekend, I was laid up sick for the weekend and most of this week. It will be left to imagination just how wrong I could be in a preview, because it probably wasn’t going to be glowing given the performance of the week before. But that’s why we play the games. Anyway, let’s go.

Game Info

Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
Venue: Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 7:30 PM AEST
Referee: Adam Gee
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Weather: Cold, dewy
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)

To come…

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Araz Nanva 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 22. Jonah Pezet 8. Sam Tuivaiti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Jack Willliams 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Toni Mataele 16. Teancum Brown 17. Harrison Edwards 18. Joash Papalii 19. Charlie Guymer. 21. Ryley Smith

Sean Russell joins the casualty ward with a quad strain and given his round 23 return coincides with Bailey Simonsson’s heroic recovery from his leg bending six different ways, Rusty may have played his last game in Blue and Gold. Araz Nanva comes into the centres as the replacement for now. Luca Moretti was a late withdrawal last week and we’ve found that is due to concussion, he’ll also miss this week with Teancum Brown and Manly-bound Toni Mataele taking bench middle duties while Sam Tuivaiti is officially promoted to a starting jersey.

Mitch Moses has, as expected, been rested after Origin, though he has worryingly been designated with a cork as well. Ryles has said he’ll be back next game after the bye, but last time he said that we didn’t see Mitch for a month. Jonah Pezet takes his place at halfback.

Sydney Roosters

22. Cody Ramsey 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Hugo Savala 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Connor Watson 10. Spencer Leniu 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley. 14. Benaiah Ioelu 15. Taylor Losalu 16. Egan Butcher 17. De La Salle Va’a 18. Rex Bassingthwaighte 19. Tommy Talau. 20. Toby Rodwell.

Four Origin players are rested for this one, though three were telegraphed by being named in the extended squad in Sam Walker, Reece Robson and Lindsay Collins. Victorious Blues fullback James Tedesco joins them after being concussed in the decider, replaced by Cody Ramsey though young gun fullback Rex Bassingthwaighte lurks on the extended bench.

For the others, utility Connor Watson starts at hooker for Robson, with Benaiah Ioelu on the bench. Hugo Savala shifts to the halves for Walker, having played a bit of centre in recent times, and hopeful future Eel Spencer Leniu starts in place of Collins. Another former Blue in Angus Crichton is also out, replaced by Salesi Foketi.

Being Less Bad

The Big Sam start is official!

The Eels are proving a reasonable match for opponents over the last month or two when they can crack an even share of possession, whether that is by Parramatta holding the ball themselves or, more likely, the opposition also fumbling it away. Whilst the Roosters historically are carefree about completions, recent form has them hitting that 80% mark more often than not and, combined with their attacking strength, means if the Eels want to compete they will need to set a minimum standard of handling above what they’ve shown in recent games.

The reversal (thanks Eye Test) of the “speed up the game” mandate has benefited the Eels too; as one of the worst defenders of repeat sets in the league it has been a major boon that referees stopped waving them. The average score conceded by the Eels this year has dropped under 30 points after scraping “worst of all time” levels in the early rounds, and since the crackdown was reversed after round 13, they are conceding only 18 points per game.

It is important to break down improvements in Parramatta’s defence to those attributed to the change in meta and those coming from better execution and tighter systems. It is encouraging to see a dramatic reduction in the number of second rowers strolling over next to the posts over the last six weeks, though the edge defence against Cody Walker suggests there are still weaknesses in those combinations to exploit. From the eye test, several of our recent opponents didn’t possess the gameplan or the personnel to exploit known weaknesses in the Eels defence, but also those weaknesses were so glaring that gameplan wasn’t needed to exploit them, suggesting there is some improvement.

I scoffed at Jason Ryles’ suggestions earlier in the year that our defensive issues were individual lapses rather than systemic problems, but I believe that is more accurate now than it was back then. Souths exploited Kelma Tuilagi with pace several times and capitalised on the size mismatch of Tallis Duncan at centre close to the line; those are more targeted attacks than just “take a hitup between the half and back rower” which was all teams needed to do earlier in the year. Whether our structures have improved or the game speed has come back to a point where our structures are effective, that is the question. What could have been had the NRL not decided to massively change the interpretation of the game on the back of one of the better years of footy we’ve seen, huh?

On The Money

Kitione is the man most likely

Like most recent seasons the Sydney Roosters are a prominent name on the fraud watch notice, though this year they’ve started well and are covered in question marks rather than starting poorly and needing to storm home. They don’t post elite numbers in attack or defence and don’t have a signature win on the resume, but they’ve beaten fellow top eight sides more often than not and are efficient at getting the job done, having not lost in what I would call a significant upset this year.

Despite the recent completion numbers above, the Roosters turn over the ball a lot. They lead the NRL in errors made and are up there for penalties conceded. This is on brand, but it does mean the chances will probably be there for Parramatta at some point. The Eels have to test the back three with more than just clearing kicks; Mark Nawaqanitawase is a handling error waiting to happen while Cody Ramsey is still shaking off rust from his extended layoff. There are raw combinations out there too with Savala moving to the halves and Foteki on the edge, which should allow the Eels to throw shape at Nawaqanitawase and wait for him to make a wrong decision.

Where the Roosters will hurt the Eels is the yardage game. They are the best in the NRL for post contact metres, with their outside backs and forwards all adept at finding extra yardage. This doesn’t necessarily translate to a strong offloading game, but second phase kills Parramatta and I would expect the Roosters to be looking to unload the ball, particularly around the middle of the park. It will probably be slippery out there, but I doubt that stops the Roosters chancing their arm.

On the other side of that equation, the Roosters are the tightest tacklers in the NRL, missing the fewest tackles and among the best for ineffective. Parramatta aren’t a “break tackles to score” kind of side, it is usually structure that breaks down an opponent on the edges, but the easy chances won’t be there and it suggests we’ll need more than just “let Kelly or Kautoga terrorise their opposite” to break through.

The Game

Would you mess with a man who looks at you like this?

I’m not sure what to expect in this one. Parramatta haven’t been able to string together too many strong performances, and even last week the completion numbers weren’t great but Manly was worse. It was still a better, more determined win than any that had come before it, and if this really is a new Eels, they have a great shot against a weakened Roosters side.

This is a huge test for our young middles. Whyte and Leniu are a powerful, intimidating duo and aiming for mere containment is asking for trouble. If they get over the top of the starting pack, a lot is going to be asked of Brown and Mataele to reverse the momentum. They’re both capable, but they’re also both young and inexperienced.

Sadly it might just come down to experience. While Tedesco, Walker and Robson are missing for the Roosters, they still have Daly Cherry-Evans to lead them around the park and Connor Watson to direct the ruck. That should be enough to give their elite backs the chances they need. Nawaqanitawase’s great strength is his attack, and the Eels are historically vulnerable to the kind of fluke he pulls off on the regular. Daniel Tupou loves a strong effort against the Eels and is celebrating his 300th game, while Robert Toia is a mismatch for either centre he marks up against. It might all be too much for Parramatta to handle. I’m going to predict another noble defeat, but this game more than most is open to all sorts of outcomes. Let’s hope we get one of the good ones.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Roosters 28 d Eels 16

Man of the Match: Daly Cherry-Evans

Gol

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