First up, apologies for the absence over the last week, while the NRL has gone back to 2021 with six agains, blowouts and general officiating driven angst, my household went back to that same period and all caught covid. That experience has been about as pleasant as witnessing V’landyball 2: The Reckoning, though at least my pain subsides after a few days. There is no end in sight for the six again sickness that plagues rugby league.

In a fever dream last weekend the Eels were valiant but suffered for the lack of quality that comes with losing a dozen members of your top squad. As long as that effort level remains they’ll have a shot in any given contest, and that will prove especially true this week against one of the real enigmas of the NRL: the North Queensland Cowboys.

History suggests it would be foolish to call the Cowboys the real deal unless you see them holding the NRL trophy late one September evening, but they are off to a strong start for 2026. They sit on the fringe of the top four and have banked wins over the Sharks, Broncos, Storm and Bulldogs, and only two of those wins have come in typically oddball Cowboys fashion. Can the Eels go on the road and pull off the upset? Only the preview can tell you for sure!

Game Info

Date: Friday, 8 May, 2026
Venue: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Warm, dry
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)

Gol apologised for his absence last week, but I make no apologies for my punting absence. If it’s not working, why spread the speculating pain!

This week I’m feeling some confidence, but it’s about the points to be scored, not about the result.

Everything points to a high scoring game, no matter the winner. Our Eels have leaked way too many points multiple times this year, whilst the Cowboys are hardly regarded as a defensive unit.

Hit the “pick your own total” market which pays $2.65 for over 61.5 total match points. If you think it will go higher, the return is better.

As always, keep the punting fun and responsible.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Joash Papalii 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Luca Moretti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Jack Williams 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Saxon Pryke 16. Toni Mataele 17. Charlie Guymer 18. Apa Twidle 19. Teancum Brown. 22. Lorenzo Talataina.

The maw has swallowed half of the Eels roster this year and still demands sacrifice, this time taking Will Penisini and Ryley Smith while generously returning Jordan Samrani and Apa Twidle to the fold ahead of schedule. Samrani comes straight into the backline for Penisini and offers a good replacement to the hard ruck runs Will had been delivering.

With Smith out, Tallyn Da Silva moves into the starting rake role while Toni Mataele returns to the bench. Twidle comes straight onto the extended bench in place of Lorenzo Talataina, with Teancum Brown also on the elongated pine. I’m not sure where that leaves us with a bench utility to spell Tallyn, Guymer may be able to operate there in a pinch, or a Vollkman shuffle could be initiated by bringing Twidle on. Let’s just hope TDS can go the full 80.

North Queensland Cowboys

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tom Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Coen Hess 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Sam McIntyre 13. Reuben Cotter. 14. Soni Luke 15. Griffin Neame 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Matthew Lodge 18. Xavier Kerrisk 20. Kai O’Donnell. 22. Robert Derby.

Jeremiah Nanai departs as quickly as he returned from injury, joining his fellow Maroons representative Murray Taulagi on the sidelines as the only current casualties for the Cowboys. Sam McIntyre will take Nanai’s spot in the back row.

The bench pack is a beastly bunch and it feels unlikely they are used 14 through 17 as listed. Neame, Mikaele and Lodge are all pure props, while the 18th and 19th man are apparently a hooker and a fullback. I’d expect some shenanigans here given regular squad members Kai O’Donnell and Kaiden Lahrs sit in the extended reserves.

Big Units

The beak was in big form before his injury

Size is the big threat for Parramatta in this one. The overgrown outside backs and the monstrous middles of the Warriors steamrolled the Eels in the middle stages of the contest last week, especially once errors forced repeat efforts in defence. The Cowboys outside backs don’t match the Warriors on that front, but their middle and bench are more than capable big units that would love nothing more than rolling downhill and scattering Eels defenders like ten pins. Jason Taumalolo is in a big milestone match and has been turning back the clock this season; he will be a huge threat if North Queensland can get a roll going.

The main concern with big men rolling through the Parramatta middle is set restarts. Rugby League Eye Test did some great breakdowns this week on the general impact, with the cliff notes being that an average NRL set that contains one or more restarts will result in 0.7 more points scored than a regular set. The Eels, of course, are not a regular team, and concede tries from restarts at close to double the NRL average, meaning every arm wave against the Eels is adding 1.4 points to the oppositions score.

There is a bit of bastardisation of the math there, as the Eels also concede in regular sets 50% more often than an average side, but the numbers are extreme enough that the point remains. Honestly we didn’t even need this kind of data to prove that set restarts are poison to the Parramatta Eels, but the fact is no team is worse at defending restarts than us. We’re not much chop at scoring from restart sets either, but my completely untested theory on that is because we get so many “square up” restarts later in games that make the final counts look better but do little for an exhausted squad in terms of attacking chance.

On the brighter side, one key from last week was that when the Eels weren’t throwing the game away with mistakes, they were doing rather well in the field position battle against the big Warriors squad. Getting fast play the balls, running hard at the edges, utilising the short side, Parramatta was on top in the early stages on the back of fast, fluid football. The Cowboys don’t mind an error, and are more than capable of compounding those errors once they start. It is a big ask of the Eels to play clean footy for 80 minutes, but if they can hold together well enough then North Queensland are always a risk to beat themselves.

It is hard to trust that those errors won’t come. There were far too many basic errors in the ruck, trying to push offloads that weren’t there or mucking up the simple act of putting the ball on the ground, and that was just Saxon Pryke. Brian Kelly is never going to get a penalty called for a strip when he loses the ball in a contested tackle, such is his reputation, and the Eels better hold on to their challenges just to cover for it. Kelma Tuilagi hasn’t shown us his upside in a hot minute, but we certainly saw the downside last week with a couple of handling errors. If we get “good Kelma” this week it goes a long way to winning the game.

Attack Alert

Against big boppers, we need another big effort from Junior

While the Cowboys aren’t sitting alongside the elite attacking units of 2026, that is mainly due to their not putting a full beatdown on any opponent yet this season. Their best scoring effort was an impressive 46 against the Sharks, except that game was still a contest in the final ten minutes and was a contender to eclipse that Eels v Dragons game for a team posting the highest ever losing score. A staple of Todd Payten North Queensland sides is their attacking strength, and that remains in 2026.

The Cowboys don’t rely on a singular threat, playing both sides of the field equally and sharing the attacking load between Tom Dearden, Jake Clifford and Scott Drinkwater. It makes giving them good ball possession especially dangerous, though for the porous Eels defence giving away any possession has proven a problem. Tom Chester and Braidon Burns are proving excellent exponents of Panther-ball, making tough rucking metres while proving capable of making something more when given a touch of space. Taumalolo and Tom Mikaele are battering rams, excelling at both pre and post contact metres, while Coen Hess presents a size mismatch against a lot of defenders and even Griffin Neame has been a bit of an Eel-killer in the past.

On our side, the attack has looked a lot like half of the first grade side is missing in action. Mitchell Moses hasn’t looked as fluid when setting up plays with a patchwork attacking line, and the individual brilliance hasn’t quite been there this year to overcome the lacking continuity. Ron Volkman has had some great individual efforts but isn’t being relied upon like Jonah Pezet was to relieve Moses, and Joash Papalii is very much a work in progress as a playmaker from the back.

It creates a situation where the side needs more chances to rack up points, and that comes from low error footy. Parramatta compounded errors against Manly and played themselves out of the contest in the second half, while they spread the pain a bit wider against the Warriors but still dropped too much ball to remain competitive. Some of the problem is simply talent and experience; there are a lot of raw footballers in this team, plus a few that class as “take the good with the bad” who make mistakes but also offer attacking brilliance. Some of the problem is concentration, a bit of it would be fatigue as well. I don’t know how it can be fixed, but taking the advice from the hill of “hold on to the bloody ball would you” is the surest path to improvement for the Eels right now.

The Game

Always keep a challenge in your pocket for when somebody strips the ball from Brian Kelly

With an inconsistent attack, individual brilliance becomes more important. A freak play from Brian Kelly, a hard charge from Kelma or a clever dart from Da Silva could be the difference for the Eels. Mitchell Moses hasn’t taken too many matches by the scruff of the neck this year, but this week would be a good time for him to stand tall in a potential Origin preview against Tom Dearden.

The Cowboys can be enticed to beat themselves, so playing them tough from the start is a must. Put them on the back foot, get them chasing points and hope the issues compound. Then just hold it together for a full 80 to get the result. Easy game. They haven’t been a terrible defensive side in 2026 but reputation suggests they can be scored upon, often in bunches. If the Eels can win the middle and tire out the big Cowboys forwards, those edges of the ruck will start looking very tempting for Dylan Walker, TDS, Volkman and Moses late in the halves.

It all comes down to that massive “if”. If the Eels can hold onto the ball. The last two weeks suggest they can’t, not consistently through 80 minutes of football. It’s a tough ask to be there for a full 80 minutes, eventually your opposition will force mistakes, calls won’t go your way, momentum will shift. Parramatta’s defensive efforts have improved in terms of not giving away easy, unpressured tries, but on back-to-back efforts their flaws are being exposed. Defending repeat efforts has to improve.

Defending as a whole simply must improve. This is a historically bad defensive side. Yes it is a historically anomalous scoring season, but the Eels are conceding 10 points per game more than the average side and slot in behind only the 1935 Bulldogs (who famously lost back-to-back games by a margin of 178-13), the 1999 Magpies and a pack of University seasons for worst average against in history. It is not good company to be keeping.

The Cowboys will be licking their lips at a chance to run at this defence, but if the Eels can keep them contained to an average score they are a great shot at victory. Again, it is all about that “if”. I’m not going to tip that it happens, but I have more hope than you’d expect for battling a team entrenched in the top eight and looking in good touch this season. That’s what the modern history of the Cowboys will do for your confidence.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Cowboys 32 d Eels 20

Man of the Match: Jason Taumalolo

Gol

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