It’s been a fairly flat month for Parramatta fans. Suspensions, injuries and not a lot to like on the field, the creeping doom of being the odd team out in the finals race isn’t helping either. Yet nothing shakes off that malaise like a good old fashioned rivalry game, and you don’t get many better than those between the Eels and the Storm.

There are plenty of unknowns here. Instead of the rectangular fortress of AAMI Park, the Storm will host this game at the cavernous purpose built AFL ground, Docklands Stadium, thanks to the soccer world cup. Both sides are missing stars; the Eels RCG, Shaun Lane, Maika Sivo and Dylan Brown, the Storm Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Justin Olam, Remis Smith and Tariq Sims. Both teams are coming off losses, the Storm’s perhaps a touch more embarrassing.

At the risk of repeating myself, it’s must win football for Parramatta. Upsets and drops in form have changed the equation: 13 wins should get you into the finals now, maybe even 12, but there are a few new contenders in the mix with the Knights, Sea Eagles, Roosters and Dolphins still within striking distance with a winning streak. You just need to keep winning, or in our case, start winning. Let’s see how we can do it.

Game Info

Date: Friday, July 28th, 2023
Venue: Docklands Stadium, Melbourne
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Gerard Sutton
Weather: Wet, cool
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

The Eels are absolutely blowing in the premiership market, and that also means the tough road to the finals will be producing more attractive prices.

This week the Storm are overwhelming favourites to beat the Eels. In the head to head market, you can get $2.70 on the Eels.

If you used last week as a form guide, this would be closer to an even money contest. That said, the Eels left edge remains unchanged and Craig Bellamy won’t be ignoring that weakness in his tip sheet.

Nonetheless, if the Eels can remedy the dysfunction on that side of the field they are in with a show against a Melbourne team that has issues of its own.

My tip is the Eels in that head to head market.

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Sean Russell 6. Daejarn Asi 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Andrew Davey 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Joey Lussick 17. Ryan Matterson.

18. Haze Dunster 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Jack Murchie.

Sean Russell is solid, which makes him our second best back right now

The Eels recruitment and retention team owe a ‘please explain’ for their inability to secure a single reserve outside back in the player market this year, as one single out has exposed us to grade football level performances from Waqa Blake and Isaac Lumelume. I appreciate that building a roster like we have, with a lot of big money forwards and three quarters of a representative spine, costs money, and that needs to be saved somewhere, but our outside backs’ depth is costing us wins, and only one (Will Penisini), maybe two (Maika Sivo) of our starting outside backs would get a run in other first grade sides. In matches like last week where the system can’t create the points, the players need to create them. Our outside backs are largely incapable of that, and our backups are some of the worst defensive players I’ve had the misfortune to watch.

In the pack, Shaun Lane is gone until the finals and probably beyond, given his fitness struggles. Andrew Davey comes back into the back row for Lane. New recruit Joey Lussick takes Davey’s spot on the bench, he’ll probably take 20-30 minutes from Brendan Hands and perhaps offer some more with the ball against tired defenders. 

Melbourne Storm

1. Nick Meaney 2. Will Warbrick 3. Marion Seve 4. Young Tonumaipea 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Tom Eisenhuth 13. Josh King. 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Eliesa Katoa 17. Tyran Wishart.

18. Grant Anderson 19. Chris Lewis 20. Tepai Moeroa 21. Aaron Pene 22. Jayden Nikorima.

The Storm backline is barely recognisable from recent seasons, and has had some of the same issues the Eels have had in substandard players being unable to handle regular first grade. Marion Seve and Young Tonumaipea need to be exploited defensively, while Will Warbrick has had plenty of ordinary moments of his own, but has at least proven a good finisher.

The forward pack is kindly described as workmanlike without the impact of Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Trent Loiero, Tom Eisenhuth and Josh King will hold their own, but the Eels should be able to get on top of the field position battle if they can maintain discipline (and their opponents are appropriately punished for their own ill discipline). The depth stretches even thinner on the bench, and there really is no excuse for the Eels if they can’t handily control the middle of the park.

System Disabled

Moses needs to adjust after being hurried last week

With a few parts replaced with cheaper models the Parramatta attacking machine hasn’t been operating at peak performance, and that hasn’t been helped by our opposition starting to work out the patterns and target the key pieces of our moves. The Cowboys paid almost no attention to the decoy runners in the Eels attack, either not believing they’d ever get the ball or feeling comfortable in sliding if they did. The half would dig into the line then sling the ball out yet wouldn’t commit any defenders, while the edge defence would rush the ball carrier like they knew he was getting the ball all along.

Some referee leniency in defenders getting off the line very quickly has helped opponents shut us down with the rush, but if your attacking formation requires referee consistency to succeed then it isn’t a very good attacking formation because you’ll never get consistent officiating. The Storm will be all too capable of shutting down the Eels attack like the Cowboys did, so it is time to start showing off the variants that we are capable of. Inside balls, actually hitting forwards on the flat decoy run, kicks behind the line, playing the short side. There are undoubtedly variations practiced like these by the team, we can’t afford to save them for finals games that we might not ever see if we don’t win now.

Protecting Weakness

The Cowboys tore the Parramatta left edge to shreds, running through Daejarn Asi and around Waqa Blake, who left continental sized gaps down the sideline with ineffective rushes. The Cowboys didn’t even need to exploit Waqa’s inability to catch a high ball. Andrew Davey might actually have a better connection with Asi than Shaun Lane did, given how often Lane has been injured, and he’s a high effort player who won’t make the lazy mistakes Lane did last week. Still, the only real protection against the Waqa defence is to not let it get exposed in the first place.

Completion rates are overrated as a stat, but damn if they aren’t going to be crucial to Parramatta this week. They simply can’t give Melbourne easy field position, because with defenders like Asi and Blake, field position means points. The Eels forwards should have an advantage here, but mistakes and ill discipline will be punished more brutally than usual. “Be perfect” might be a simple strategy, but it might be what we need to win this game.

Exploiting Weakness

Young Tonumaipea and Marion Seve are no Peta Hiku and Val Holmes, so the Eels could reasonably expect that the rushing defence won’t be quite so ferocious this weekend. If Parramatta can get the defence on the back foot, points should come from simply running numbers and shape at the edge. Bryce Cartwright will be crucial, points follow him when he’s running at a retreating defence.

It could also be a week for the big man try. While Brendan Hands has proven himself resistant to the crash ball curse that plagued Reed Mahoney, there will be matchups to exploit on the edges with smaller, less experienced forwards all across the Storm back row and bench. Combinations also won’t be what the Storm are used to, so targeting either shoulder of the halves with big runners could produce simple, but effective results.

The Game

Good things are happening off Carty this year

Despite sitting in the top four, this isn’t the Melbourne Storm we all know and hate. In their recent matches against fellow contenders the Panthers and Cowboys, they’ve not been competitive at all, and the good Rabbitohs of May tore them up too. They’ll put teams away that beat themselves, but when asked for that top gear this year, Melbourne haven’t been able to deliver.

So the question is, will the Eels beat themselves? There’s a decent chance unfortunately. There is a lot of star power missing, and the replacement level guys just aren’t getting it done. Moses and Gutherson tried to take the team on their back last week, but it was too much for even the mercurial form of our two best players.

Still, injury and suspension has weakened the Storm to the point where I give us a good shot. It was foolhardy to tip the Eels last week, but this week I do so with some confidence. Last week wasn’t great, but it wasn’t terrible. The Cowboys are a good team, and we came home the stronger, we just gave them too much of a start due to too many reserve graders (or reserve grade performances from first graders). If we don’t do that against Melbourne, I can definitely see a win.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 28 d Melbourne 18

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

Gol

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