It’s very funny that the Sydney Roosters are so upset about a young kid they poached and bent over backwards to support abandoning them for rugby union, because the Roosters are very much the rugby union of rugby league. Propped up by the wealthy, lacking in actual supporters and we’d all be better off without both of them. The salary cap antics that we all question conjures up Hollywood images of Uncle Nick running his Roosters like a cross between a hedge fund and the mafia, and I’m very much enjoying watching one get away from the family. It doesn’t happen very often.

What does this have to do with the Eels? Not much I admit, but without any real rivalry between the two clubs to speak of sometimes all that is left is to sink the slipper in a bit. Parramatta closes their Thursday Night Frenzy with a visit to the new Sydney Football Stadium, the best new stadium since their own, and I can’t wait to get out there on Thursday and talk non-stop about how much better I think CommBank Stadium is.

The Eels haven’t beaten the Roosters away from Parramatta since 2008, a stat that would be far more damning if it covered more than just five away games that weren’t played at neutral venues. Indeed this is the first time the Roosters will be hosting Parramatta at their actual home stadium since 2017, which for Parramatta might as well be 1908. Only Clint Gutherson remains from that team that was beaten a lot to not many in front of barely any. Only two other members of that team are still (sort of) in the NRL: Tepai Moeroa and Nathan Brown.

It hasn’t been a happy decade or so of clashes with the Roosters, but the ledger is square in the last four starts and the Eels will be full of confidence after opening the account last weekend. I’m as pumped as a Fox Sports journalist getting to react to an overblown rumour about Clint Gutherson, so let’s get into the preview!

Game Info

Date: Thursday, March 30 2023
Venue: Sydney Football Stadium, Moore Park
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEDT
Referee: Grant Atkins
Bunker: Gerard Sutton
Weather: Mild, low chance of rain
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

We went so close last week with the speculation. But being only 1.5 points short is exactly the same result as being wrong by 40 points – it’s not a winning selection.

Hopefully you took the Eels to win, which we suggested was at the very good odds of $3.50.

This week the Eels are again the underdog, paying $2.50 in the head to head market. That seems like great value.

If you want a bigger return, look to the score a try at anytime and win market.

Dylan Brown is due to have a big game and I reckon he’ll score a try. If you take him to score a try anytime in an Eels win, the return is $10.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Wiremu Greig 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Matt Doorey 15. Brendan Hands 16. Jack Murchie 17. Makahesi Makatoa.

18. Jake Arthur 22. Haze Dunster

You’ve got one job big man.

One forced change for the Eels, with co-captain Junior Paulo sitting for two weeks following his leaping lariat in the last minute of the Panthers clash. We’re lucky that is all he’s missing. Wiremu Greig is the surprise replacement, though I still expect most of Paulo’s minutes to go the way of Makahesi Makatoa. Greig will be tasked with taking it to the Roosters starters, particularly Jared Waerea-Hargreaves who loves to lift against the Blue and Gold.

Jack Murchie returns in the bench spot Greig vacates, also likely to absorb some decent middle minutes. He’s one dropped ball from being nicknamed Jack Kaufusi-Terepo, so he’d best have a solid performance. Brendan Hands retains his bench utility role after a cracking debut, and I dare say a spot on the bench is his to lose for the rest of the year.

Sydney Roosters

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Drew Hutchison 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley. 14. Jake Turpin 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Corey Allan 17. Fletcher Baker.

18. Ben Thomas 19. Junior Pauga.

The Family business can be a hazardous line of work, as the constant overflow of the Roosters casualty ward can attest. Joey Manu misses this one through suspension while Matt Lodge, Sitili Tupouniua and Connor Watson are out with injury and Angus Crichton remains on personal leave. It leaves Drew Hutchison (or more likely, Corey Allan) taking a spot in the centres while the bench lacks that high impact we’ve become accustomed to.

That bench consists of five game prop Naufahu Whyte, utility hooker Jake Turpin, reserve outside back Corey Allan (or the more versatile Hutchison as suggested earlier) and depth prop Fletcher Baker. It means a big ask of the Roosters starters, and presents the Eels a chance to run some big, skillful men at some inexperienced forwards.

Us

Normal service resumed for the Eels last weekend, playing a high completion game and minimising tackles defending their own line. Penrith were good enough in their own completions that it didn’t translate into great field position very often, hence Mitchell Moses kicking for an NRL record gain, but playing like that every week will create plenty of points against mortal opposition.

Unfortunately, playing like that every week is a near impossibility. 90%+ completion rates are rare, you will have to defend your own line eventually. The Roosters have traditionally been the team to break the whole “completions are important” narrative, rarely needing many opportunities to break an opponent down and content to chance their arm and rely on their defence if it goes awry.

Mitch Moses has had some of his best moments against the Roosters

Last week we fixed the mistakes with the ball, but if the mistakes without it aren’t also addressed this will be an unpleasant school night for the Eels. I’m looking forward to seeing the tighter combinations and better decision making that come with a month of cohesion on the training paddock, but I can’t say I am without concern. Dylan Brown has been the man caught out several times this year, though it is unlikely that all of those were Dylan’s fault. Like wingers are blamed for overlaps caused by decisions made well in-field, Brown is likely to be over-compensating or making desperate attempts to fix a problem not exactly of his own creation. Inside men not sliding fast enough, outside men making poor decisions or not rushing with him, that left edge has been targeted by every Parramatta opponent so far this year and I expect the Roosters to come knocking on that side early and often.

Brad Arthur does seem to save his best tactical games for the tri-colours. He’s exploited their defence with inside runners against the grain to great effect, and Mitchell Moses continually found joy down the short side against them last year. I’d expect a couple of plays against type this week, as the Roosters tend to bring out the unexpected in the Parramatta attack.

Them

The Roosters are still a bit scratchy coming into season 2023, despite winning two of three. They’re yet to crack more than 20 points in a game, while head knocks have minimised the amount of time new recruit Brandon Smith has spent on the field. Now prime yardage man and their best “something from nothing” creator in Joseph Manu is out, and it looks like a prime opportunity for the Eels.

Every Sydney Roosters win over Parramatta in recent years has started with a dominance of the middle. It’s a bad time for Junior Paulo to be missing, and JWH has had plenty of “those” games against us and might be primed for another considering the weight on his shoulders with such a light bench. You don’t need to dominate him, just make him look a bit human now and then. Don’t try and crunch him and get involved in a back and forth, just work hard to bring him to ground.

Reg will relish the challenge this week.

Parramatta also needs to execute on a plan B if the Roosters bring the line speed and are allowed lenience in the ruck. Again, Junior’s absence hurts here and I don’t want to see the passing game of Makatoa or Greig, but getting Hopgood and Matterson involved in distribution and running in pairs will be important if the one out plays aren’t working. Josh Hodgson should also shine in this environment, showing some deception and variety at dummy half to slow aggressive defenders down.

I don’t feel the need to outline all of the attacking threats of the Roosters, you know how good and how dangerous they are across the park. There are a few particular areas that I am more worried about. The potato pair of Simonsson and Blake always concern me, but especially some of their efforts this year on contested high balls. Suaalii and Tupou will be aiming to get decent one-on-one matchups across the park should the Roosters be kicking in the attacking 20. James Tedesco joining the line will be a five alarm event, and Clint Gutherson overcommitting on any overlap is liable to be exploited by the clever Roosters halves.

Still, win the middle, win the match. Reduce the silly mistakes and play our attacking game, and we’re every chance of the upset here.

The Game

I’d say we’ll know early on if we’re in this one, but Magic Round last year really knocked that theory around. It was an unusual but welcome experience to watch the Eels peg back a three try deficit, even if the result ultimately didn’t go the way of the good guys. I’d still prefer that we didn’t drop 16 points behind against good footy teams, but if the Roosters do score early, the team have experiences to dig into that will reassure them the game is far from over.

It really does come down to how our big men handle themselves. Hopgood and Matterson will likely play similar roles and both need big attacking performances. I have all faith that RCG will come out fired up, and that just leaves a group commonly known as the question marks. Doorey, Greig, Makatoa, Murchie, Cartwright, they all need to be at the top of their game here. Anything less will be found out.

I’ve mentioned the Magic Round loss from last year a lot, but I haven’t touched on what was one of the Eels best halves of footy in 2022: the round 15 victory where the Parramatta attack was in rare form, offloading at will and scoring some sensational tries. That is what a confident Eels side can do, then in the second half the pack closed up shop and defended the lead like a dog with a particularly juicy bone. It was a complete performance, and one I think we’re capable of repeating.

I’m feeling real good after the win last week. Beating the defending premiers and benchmark side of the competition will do that to you. The Roosters are another one of those benchmarks that just hasn’t quite got it together for a couple of seasons now. They’re just rough enough, missing just enough players and shown just enough vulnerability, that I think we’re a very good shot at taking the win. Confident enough to tip it, even. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 26 d Sydney 18

Man of the Match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

Gol

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.