Alright Eels fans, time to get serious. A brutal run to the finals begins this week, as Parramatta hosts Brisbane in the most crucial matchup of their season so far, at least until next round. Brad Arthur is preparing his troops for the coming battles with a week of bonding up on the Central Coast, where hopefully a lot of teammates sat by the light of a fire looking into each other’s eyes and promising to win it all before they head off to college. Texas forever.

It is a very good week for the Adonis of O’Connell Street to return.

If complacency has been the biggest enemy of the Eels in season 2022, it will quickly fade away seeing the run Parramatta has coming up. Penrith, Manly away, Souths, Brisbane home and away, Melbourne, and I hope the team has learned their lesson about taking Canterbury lightly because they’re on the slate too. Last year Parramatta fell to pieces right as the going got tough, only to recover on the eve of the finals and give the Storm a beating and Penrith an almighty scare. We can’t afford that again.

If they aren’t getting up for this run, they just aren’t footballers. Players should live for these moments, and it should bring out the best in them. That’s what I demand to see this week against Brisbane: the best of Parramatta. It’s been too long.

Game Info

Date: Thursday July 21, 2022
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 7:50 PM AEST
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 61, Eels 27, Broncos 33, Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.53 Broncos $2.50
Lines: Eels -4.5, total points 42.5
Fact: The last time the Eels and Broncos played a game when both were in the top eight, the Eels won 58-0.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Though Parra are firm favourites in the betting market, I feel that there is genuine value to be found this week.

If you go conservative, taking Parra at the -4.5 line returns $1.90, which might be a good way to kick off a multi.

But this week, I am very confident about a victory that will be founded on a powerful start to the clash. For that reason I’m digging into the first half, select your own line market.

I believe that Parra can get at least a two try jump over the Broncos in the first forty minutes. However, I won’t go too wild with the points, especially with the inclement weather, so I’m taking the line of Parra -8.5 which is paying $3.60.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jake Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore.

18. Ky Rodwell 19. Ofahiki Ogden.

We’ve done this dance before, but by all accounts Ryan Matterson is making his return this round after a few extra weeks of rest for a rib injury. He has been a huge difference maker in this team and will be a welcome sight for all fans. His return pushes Marata Niukore to the bench and Ky Rodwell to the reserves.

Jake Arthur retains the bench utility role despite his brief cameo at hooker last week not doing a lot to reassure me he’s a legitimate option in that role, especially in defence. The starting pack just doesn’t leave room to give a four forward bench playing time, but the current Eels roster doesn’t have a suitable utility player available with Ray Stone injured. There is no impact hooker, nobody that can play a spine position and in the outside backs, and no high impact speedster that could create havoc in a short stint like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. If only rugby league was some sort of video game where you could get a 4 point head start by choosing to only run with a 16-man squad, we’d do it every week. Heck, with this roster I’d run with 15.

Nathan Brown couldn’t even crack the reserves this week, and rumour has it B.A made him sleep in his car during the bonding camp this week, so don’t expect to see him in firsts again unless injuries strike. He’s been unimpressive enough this year that I’m not too worried about the coach enforcing some discipline if it is deserved, but it isn’t making “the discourse” any more pleasant. If you boo Jake Arthur you’re an arsehole and can get in the sea, I don’t care what point you think you are making.

Brisbane Broncos

1. Tesi Niu 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan. 14. Cory Paix 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Thomas Flegler 17. Keenan Palasia.

21. Delouise Hoeter 19 Zac Hosking.

The Broncos got the chance to rest a few banged up bodies last weekend against the Titans, with Corey Oates, Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan and Kurt Capewell all returning to the side this week. Haas is an interesting case, he’s clearly banged up but is also too important to be missing from the side for too long. The Eels forwards should single him out for some extra attention.

Selwyn Cobbo hasn’t been able to return from his Origin concussion, good news for Parramatta as players with that kind of speed on the wing cause us no end of trouble. Watching Adam Reynolds chip into a wide open space behind our wingers is still a risk, but Pereira and Oates don’t have that blistering speed of Cobbo.

Ezra Mam has made an impression in his brief first grade career, but he’s raw and can be forced into mistakes. Jake Turpin has taken back the hooking role that has been a problem for Brisbane all season, he and Paix offer little threat around the ruck. There’s a few unfamiliar names in that Broncos pack, but they have been playing decent footy and while Jensen, Palasia and Hetherington might not put a smile on a kids face when pulling their footy card from a pack, they have proven tough competitors this year.

The Game

It’s funny what a good halfback can do for a team.

While the Broncos have won a few games without him, Adam Reynolds has been largely responsible for the jump Brisbane has made from the mid-lower pack to top four contenders. His game management and kicking has improved the Broncos field position and possession numbers, which ease the pressure on the defence and give the attacking stars more chances to shine. If only improvement was as simple for the Eels, but for the Broncos it really was as basic as “get the ball in better spots”.

This game shapes up as another great chance for Shaun Lane.

Reynolds himself has also shown more attacking nous than was ever required of him at Souths, directing the red zone attack where previously he just needed to hold some numbers on the right while the left edge did their thing. He’s thriving in this environment, at least while he can stay healthy. Naturally this means the Eels need to work him over all night long. He’s too experienced to be too rattled by kick pressure and strong defence, but even the greatest halfbacks struggle when given little time. It isn’t a strength of Parramatta, but Reed Mahoney, Isaiah Papali’i and Shaun Lane need to work hard on pressuring the kicker.

The Broncos’ numbers indicate a bit of an “Eels-lite”, with a similar focus on completion rates and field position. They don’t make a lot of errors and have reasonable discipline, but they miss plenty of tackles and, crucially for Parramatta, are the worst in the NRL at conceding offloads. While the CommBank Stadium grounds will be well soaked on Thursday night, the Eels have shown they can move the ball around a bit even in the wet, and offloads from Ryan Matterson and Junior Paulo will play a huge part in the Eels gaining ascendancy through the middle.

While Kotoni Staggs is the man to fear with the ball, he’s the best target for the Parramatta attack. His defensive reads can be ordinary and he falls off plenty of tackles. He and Waqa Blake will be a fun battle, though the over/under for missed tackles between them is 11.5, and money is pouring in for the over.

The Broncos edges also concede plenty of tries, with Jordan Riki, Kurt Capewell and Kobe Hetherington all responsible for 5 or more try concedes this year. Shaun Lane and Isaiah Papali’i will be licking their lips at the prospect, and it will be very important for Parramatta to set up good attacking shape in the red zone. Reed Mahoney getting too happy with his crash balls would be a real waste this week.

Despite the late fades in back-to-back weeks, I’m not overly concerned about that happening this week. It’s a long season, and it is easy for a team to slip mentally when well ahead late in a game. I’d prefer they put the foot on the throat and suffocate those bad sides, but history is on the Eels side for their fitness being among the best in the competition. Of more concern is the edge defence which will yet again be tested. The Broncos like to create their mismatches through players rather than passes, with Kotoni Staggs beating a man one-on-one, which actually plays into the Eels strengths as quick passing and forcing decisions on the outside defenders is our weakness. All that is required after that is Waqa Blake making one-on-one tackles and Maika Sivo staying out wide and trusting him. It is short odds we’ll see Sivo rush in and make no difference in stopping an offload that Andrew Voss will call “Gidley-esque” that leads to the winger strolling over untouched.

As usual, it will come down to Parramatta limiting those opportunities. They should have the edge on this Broncos pack and, provided Clint Gutherson can handle the Adam Reynolds kicking game, I trust the Eels to win the arm wrestle. One fun stat: Reed Mahoney has made 4 kicking errors from 26 kicks. Mitchell Moses has the same number of kicking errors from 240 kicks. Take away his kicking license, B.A! The same might apply to Gutho, who has 5 kicks dead and 3 errors from 27 kicks. Leave it to the professionals, boys.

The Lowdown

The Broncos have impressed this year, but I can’t shake the feeling that Parramatta is a class above them. Except for an early loss to the Warriors, Brisbane has beaten the teams they should and knocked over a few mid table contenders that struggled. Against the cream of the crop they’ve been soundly beaten each time. It might be generous of me to include Parramatta in the cream right now, but I think we’ve got too much talent across the board for Brisbane to compete.

Offloads aplenty are expected from the captain.

I’m putting a lot of faith in bonding sessions and Brad Arthur playing the long game, but the talk this week has me encouraged for our run home. It’s the first time I remember Brad actively talking up our premiership chances and putting some expectation on the team. Yes we’ve been inconsistent, but the side doesn’t look worn down and there is plenty of improvement left in them. The confidence is within them after beating Melbourne and Penrith early in the year, and having got so close last season.

Maybe I’m just reaching in a season where the Eels have been both the best team in the competition and the worst depending on the week. I went back and reviewed a few games this year and the best wins are truly impressive, but the couple of bad losses are sadly predictable and we’re usually good for at least one or two absolute beltings of mismatched opposition that just haven’t really happened this year.

This week is when the finals hype starts, or the finals hype dies. If the Eels can’t lift here, what hope have they got? I’m putting faith in Brad Arthur that he’s timed this team’s run after a few years of going out early, falling down and relying on a second wind to get us through the end of season. If it turns out we’ve been at the red line this whole time in season 2022, and this is the best the Eels can do, that will be a massive disappointment.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 30 d Brisbane 16

Man of the Match: Ryan Matterson

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