I am not feeling season 2022.

Maybe it’s the impending departures and team shake-up after many years of squad stability. Maybe it’s being worn down from years of being close but not quite there, of club-wide issues that remain unresolved like playing down to (or worse) than the opposition. It might be the tease of the best the Eels can offer on the field clearly being premiership worthy, but we’ve only seen it perhaps three times this year. Or it could just be the weather, the economy, the fact I don’t like the members’ hat this year, or the lack of home games in the first half of the season.

It doesn’t matter the reason, like Parramatta I’m struggling to get up for games this year. On Saturday night I’ll be, against my better judgement, getting the “old school” football experience on the hill at Leichhardt. Sydney’s weather this week has seen the SES issue mudslide warnings for the hill, so Sterlo help us all out there on Saturday. If I go all that way, pay $40 to stand in the mud and watch the Eels phone yet another one in for 2022, the only thing shorter than next week’s preview will be the grades on Sunday morning.

Dylan has been a bright spot in a testing season 2022

Anyway, that’s a whole introduction without mentioning the Tigers, who the Eels are playing this weekend. Parramatta’s opponent doesn’t really matter this year, it is unlikely the Eels will be outplayed by them so much as outplay themselves. Mathematicians estimate a 70% effort from Parramatta will be enough to beat the Tigers best, but I get the feeling the range of outcomes here is limited to two: a dire, embarrassing loss or giving the turmoiled Tigers an absolute belting.

Game Info

Date: Saturday July 9, 2022
Venue: Leichhardt Oval, Leichhardt
Kick-off: 7:35 PM AEST
Referee: Chris Butler
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 44, Eels 26, Tigers 16, Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.22 Tigers $4.30
Lines: Eels -12.5, total points 38.5
Fact: The Eels have lost their last three at Leichhardt. Of course, those games were in 2013, 2004 and 2002.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Who would punt on Parramatta?

It feels like another week when I should be advising people to keep their money in their wallet. I’ve been correct in the past with such advice. And once again the Eels are at prohibitive odds against an ordinary opponent.

If that’s not a recipe for a gambling disaster, then I’ve never watched an Eels game.

However, given the goal of this part of the preview is to come up with a tip, I’ll tip Mitch Moses to score a try. The odds on that are $4.00, but given his affection for lifting against his old club, why not go all out and take him to get a double. The return is $23.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Marata Niukore 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Tom Opacic 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Ky Rodwell.

18. Nathan Brown 19. Jake Arthur 20. Sean Russell 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Hayze Perham.

Two changes for the Eels, as State of Origin duty sees Junior Paulo make way for Marata Niukore while Ryan Matterson returns at lock after missing last week with a rib injury. Ribs are usually a pain tolerance issue, so Matterson may be touch and go for this one.

Tom Opacic remains on the bench, likely to provide the backline cover we would normally expect from Marata Niukore. It isn’t an optimal use of that bench spot, but the fitness of the Eels middle rotation means a four forward bench is usually wasted. Put it another way, I’m not calling for Brad Arthur to be sacked because he put a centre on the bench, even if I think there are better options for him.

That Nathan Brown wasn’t able to earn a reprieve after Matterson pulled out raised eyebrows, though another late withdrawal this week may force the coach’s hand. On the field Brown has responded well to his demotion, putting up good numbers in reggies last week, but we aren’t privy to what is going on behind closed doors and I’ll trust Brad Arthur to bring him back in when he sees what he wants to see from the Cyborg.

Wests Tigers

1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Starford To’a 4. Adam Doueihi 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Fa’amanu Brown 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Luke Garner 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Joe Ofahengaue. 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Justin Matamua 16. Jacob Liddle 17. Fonua Pole.

18. Austin Dias 19. Alex Seyfarth 20. Junior Tupou 21. Asu Kepaoa 22. Jock Madden.

The Tigers camp is not a happy place right now, with interim coach Brett Kimmorley yet to taste a hiding by less than 20 points, let alone get a sniff of victory. This week the inmates made a play for the asylum, Luke Brooks calling out the endless leaks from the Tigers board and all but marking that his future lay elsewhere, while Adam Doueihi demanded the five-eighth jersey or no place in the side at all.

While coach Noddy has just tried to get his best players on the park at the same time, Doueihi is clearly over being a centre and is reacting exactly like somebody who was promised “don’t worry, you’ll still be in the halves” when Jackson Hastings was signed would react. Hopefully both he and Brooks phone it in on Saturday night, though with Brooks you may not be able to tell the difference.

The pack barely resembles the one that thoroughly dominated the Eels back in round 6, with Eel-killer Luciano Leilua off to the Cowboys and former Eel Alex Twal out injured. Joe Ofahengaue had a career day last time out against Parramatta and must be watched, he’s quietly in some great form this year. Nu Brown poses some interesting questions at hooker, but is also a defensive weakness that can be exploited. The bench contains two players I’ve never heard of, which in this age of Supercoach is a rare occurrence indeed.

The Game

Round 6 was an embarrassing loss for the Eels, victims of a team that played high effort footy while they fumbled and bumbled along. The completion rates were nowhere near the standard the Blue & Gold set across the rest of the season, and the Tigers offloaded at will. Still, even as the Parramatta pack failed the eye test, they still won the possession and metres battles convincingly, even if they made Joe Ofahengaue and Alex Twal look like Arthur Beetson in his prime.

There will come a day when we are thankful for backline coverage off the bench.

Even without Junior Paulo it is hard to see a repeat performance coming. Isaiah Papali’i had his quietest game in Blue & Gold that week, and Ryan Matterson had not yet morphed into the player that earned State of Origin selection in game one. Marata Niukore adds a level of effort in his runs that the Tigers pack will find tough to contain, and Reagan Campbell-Gillard will be smarting after being snubbed for Jordan McLean in Origin 3. Parramatta also has a significant bounce-back factor this year, never losing two in a row and the two most impressive wins of the season coming off defeats.

The Parramatta defence is an even bigger concern than it was before last week, though the Rabbitohs tearing the edge to shreds wasn’t exactly a shocking twist. The Tigers have been an inept attacking side since Brett Kimmorley took over, scoring 18 points across three games, and they are comfortably the worst attacking team over the season scoring a paltry 12.4 points per game. On a soggy Leichhardt Oval there are no excuses for the Eels to leak points, and I would expect a better wet weather performance than last week when Parramatta tried to play dry footy in a monsoon.

The Tigers play off of their halves more than any team in the competition, with Brooks and Hastings combining for 160 possessions last week and Hastings in particular getting his hands on the ball more than any player in the NRL. This will allow the Tigers to test the Eels edge defence, but it also gives the inside defenders more time to react and the line a chance to move up more aggressively. South Sydney beat the Eels with flat (very flat) passing at the line and winning the middle at contact, one off the ruck. That isn’t the footy Wests play and it opens the door for an aggressive Eels middle that will be smarting after last weekend.

In saying that, I’m going to be on David Nofoaluma for any-time try scorer based on his history against us and the Eels defensive issues. Adam Doueihi should create some more opportunities on the edge, and I’m hoping the Tigers don’t follow Brad Fittler’s example and find ways to get a centre into the kicking game, especially if it is wet. Fa’amanu Brown loves a dart near the line, which will force the inside defenders to be honest and may slow down the Parramatta shift on the line, bad news for a team that barely covers any backline movement within the red zone.

The Tigers’ defence will struggle for answers against the best the Eels can throw at them. The Dylan Brown/Shaun Lane combination is clicking, the second phase play has been strong (even if Junior and potentially Matto missing will stunt this somewhat) and in good ball it is usually just a matter of pressuring the Tigers until they break. That isn’t always a given for Parramatta, but a composed performance will be enough to get the job done.

The Lowdown

This is another game that is Parramatta’s to lose. They have the Tigers well covered for talent, they are on the “up” side of the rollercoaster that is the 2022 season and the Tigers themselves are acting like a year 10 class when the teacher doesn’t show up. Even the magic touch of Leichhardt shouldn’t save them, though that is largely myth anyway as they haven’t won back-to-back games at Leichhardt since 2019 and over the last five years they haven’t even cracked a 50% win rate.

The Moses revenge game against his old club is always fun to watch.

We’re all sick of seeing the same old, but this week at least I wouldn’t mind some of it as the “same old” is a bounceback from another disappointing loss. Putting a real belting on the Tigers won’t wash off the stink of the last month, but it would provide a nice high for a few days. Whatever mental blocks impact the performance of this team aren’t going to be solved overnight, so I’m resigned to the ride and just hoping winning every second game is enough to sneak us into the finals.

I’m all doom and gloom right now, but the fact is Parramatta are still in with a red hot shot at the top four and that crucial second chance in the finals. The Sharks and Storm have tougher draws into the finals than us, and two games against Brisbane provide good opportunities to peg them back in the race. The margin for error is shrinking and form suggests we should be worried about top eight, not top four, but I believe the taste of the business end of the season will drive the Eels to better performances down the home stretch.

That starts with an absolute bollocking of the Wests Tigers in front of their home fans on Saturday night. The Tigers have spent the week playing out their grievances in the media, Brett Kimmorley is making a run at the least successful coaching stint of all time and when their chairman isn’t arguing with podcasts he’s putting out press releases to preempt their rejection by a potential new coach. If we lose to this trash fire of a team I’m deleting Twitter, leaving the Facebook groups and closing the comments.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 54 d Wests 10

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

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