Merry Easter Eels fans! Hot cross buns and four days off can only mean one thing: the now traditional Easter Monday clash between the Parramatta Eels and Wests Tigers is near. A (hopefully) sun-soaked CommBank Stadium for afternoon footy is the perfect end to an extra-long weekend, especially when the Eels will likely start three try favourites against the struggling Tigers, the only team in 2022 yet to win a game.

It hasn’t been a happy time for Wests, scoring a single intercept try in their last 160 minutes of football, playing in one of the worst games in rugby league history and holding the mantle of “prime punching bag” for Fox Sports as the smallest incidents are blown up to stir outrage in long-suffering fans. Don’t mistake this for sympathy, I’m just glad it’s them and not us after years of the Blue and Gold copping it from talking heads. The path out is easy, Tigers fans: win some games, make some finals. Just don’t start this week.

Game Info

Date: Monday April 18, 2022
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 4:00 PM AEST
Referee: Chris Butler
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 43, Eels 27, Tigers 15, Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.04 Tigers $11.00
Lines: Eels -22.5, total points 42.5
Fact: The Eels have won their last seven straight against the Tigers, and 9 of the last 10

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Don’t get me started on last week! I was fuming about the officiating and that had nothing to do with what that meant to the line in the punt. But it is an example of why we all must follow the advice of “gamble responsibly”. The outcome of matches can be impacted by the unexpected.

This week offers zero value with the Eels at the prohibitive odds of $1.06 in the head to head and a line of -21.5. That flows on to make other exotics high risk for low return, unless you’re selecting the Tigers in any market.

So let’s keep this as a look on week.

For a “fun wager”, I’m nominating future Tiger Isaiah Papali’i to score a try in an Eels win which is returning $3.75. That’s better odds than some players on the extended reserves list!

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Will Penisini 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Hayze Perham 17. Mitch Rein.

18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Jake Arthur 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Ky Rodwell 22. Samuel Loizou 23. Elie El-Zakhem 24. Zac Cini

So much for that luck turning a corner, as Waqa Blake going down for an extended period with an MCL injury sees the Eels #2 jersey officially enter curse territory. Will Penisini has provisionally been named on the wing with Marata Niukore coming back from his own injury into the centres, but the presence of Hayze Perham on the bench suggests a late change is possible. Which of the two options is better depends for me on who would be safer under the high ball: Perham or Penisini. Given the fullback Hayze has played for the Eels, I would suggest he comes into the starting team.

Simba makes a welcome return after missing the start of the year with injury

Junior Paulo is the other absentee this week, given a face-saving charge by the judiciary that the club accepted to reduce it to a single week off and put all this ridiculous business behind them. Let’s hope this ushers in a new era of consistency in NRL match review charges. Sorry, I know April Fools was two weeks ago. Oregon Kaufusi replaces him in the starting team.

It’s a light on bench as named, though against the popgun pack of the Tigers it shouldn’t matter. It’s the kind of bench I think the game is moving toward, where Perham can cover several backline positions in case of injury. Parramatta narrowly avoided disaster last week when Blake went off and Penisini was sent for an HIA, luckily he passed it and could come on right after halftime. Had Will failed that, we’re looking at a Cartwright/Matterson centres combination. Not ideal.

Wests Tigers

1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. James Roberts 4. Luke Garner 5. Starford To’a 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jackson Hastings 8. James Tamou 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Zane Musgrove 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue. 14. Jock Madden 15. Alex Twal 16. Thomas Mikaele 17. Alex Seyfarth.

18. Tyrone Peachey 19. Jacob Liddle 20. Oliver Gildart 21. Ken Maumalo 22. Tukimihia Simpkins 23. Junior Tupou 24. Austin Dias.

Madge has taken a broom to his Tigers side after five successive losses, but he’s forgotten it was the one he used last week to sweep up all the dog crap and it’s left streaks all over the deck. These swaps are like alternating between two sets of underwear on the top of the dirty clothes pile, just because one is less dirty than the other doesn’t mean they aren’t both filthy.

Tyrone Peachey, Ken Maumalo, Jacob Liddle and Oliver Gildart make way, I can’t say if they are deserving moves or not because I’d rather live September 20, 1998 as Paul Carige on repeat than watch the Tigers play this year. Jackson Hastings makes his return from suspension at the expense of Jock Madden, who did enough in his three games deputising to earn a bench utility position.

The Game

I’ve had some fun here, but the Tigers aren’t without a hope in this one. Their path to victory is effort, and Jackson Hastings could be the man to lead that effort after Wests looked like they’d rather be anywhere else last weekend. He’s a high energy player who gives a damn, and if he can inspire that in his teammates suddenly we have a game on our hands. The extra responsibility publicly placed on his shoulders this week should only motivate him, as well as giving Luke Brooks a licence to disappear in the Tigers team which might just be an improvement for their attack.

Let’s hope Hayze didn’t learn bomb defusal from Blake Ferguson

The corresponding clash last year was an example of Tigers effortball, as they offloaded and competed in the middle for much of the contest and dragged themselves back into the game several times. Blake Ferguson giving a masterclass on how not to defuse a bomb didn’t help that field position battle at all, mind you. Blake is gone and his tormentor last year Adam Doueihi is injured, so that gameplan probably won’t work this time around, but it was helped by Wests being uncharacteristically competitive in the middle.

Wests competing in the middle against Parramatta would be a massive break of form, much as it was last year. The Tigers are among the least effective packs in the league, second last in total run metres and last in post-contact metres, both of which categories the Eels rate top four. Some of this comes down to discipline, the Tigers give away the second most penalties (Eels third fewest) and make the most errors (Eels third fewest) which leads to their lacklustre 48% average share of possession.

Even without Junior Paulo, the Parramatta forwards should be far too much for the Tigers to handle. Wests rely on dummy half runs from their backs to start sets and don’t get nearly enough from their middles. Luciano Leilua has built a reputation as an Eel-killer and is in good form, but he is but one boat on an ocean of mediocrity. I expect complete Parramatta dominance of the ruck and as a result, field position. From there it is just a matter of execution.

On that front, the Tigers are a train wreck. Hastings may help this, but Daine Laurie hasn’t been in great touch, Jake Simpkin is largely unproven as an attacking rake and Luke Brooks, well, he ain’t it. They are bad at shape, have very little ad-lib football in them and have exactly one player (Leilua) capable of making a game-breaking individual play. Their defence hasn’t been a disaster, but it regressed last weekend and hasn’t been good by any means. They should present enough resistance that the Eels will need to execute, but that hasn’t been a drama for the best attacking team in the competition this year.

The Lowdown

This has to be a win. Everything I have seen from Parramatta this year suggests they are switched on for season 2022, and a switched on team is all that is needed to win a game where the disparity in talent is so stark. After handling business against the Dragons and grinding out against adversity last weekend, I expect a tough performance from Parramatta here, and that will be enough to secure a comfortable victory.

Mitchell Moses always loves a revenge game against the Tigers

I do expect Wests to show up with a bit more fire in the belly than recent weeks. I’m not sure it will be because of Michael Maguire’s changes, but Jackson Hastings will drag this team up a level and Wests have risen to the occasion many times on Easter Monday. I’d love a repeat of the 2019 stadium opener, but I think the Eels are pacing themselves into 2022 and the Tigers should provide a little more resistance.

That may just mean a tight first 20 minutes before Parramatta starts to run away with it. It could mean some early points for the Tigers that they desperately hold on to and force the Eels into executing. Whatever scenario plays out, Parramatta has to win this game. They have too much class across the park and a loss here will undo so much hard work in season 2022 thus far.

I’m going with a big Eels win that is tougher than it eventually looks on the scoreboard. It could be similar to the Dragons game, where execution and field position eventually grinds down an otherwise game opposition. It’s a tough year ahead for the Tigers, and it is a genuine premiership chance for Parramatta. The final score should reflect that come Monday evening.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 40 d Wests Tigers 12

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

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