How do you feel after that first round washing machine ride, Eels fans? At least we came out of the weekend with a fresh and clean two points, even if we’re looking a little worse for wear. Here’s hoping the Eels put us through the gentle cycle this weekend after a rough first start.
Now Parramatta heads to Cronulla for a faux-milestone game at the new Shark Park. The Sharks technically christened their new, half-built grandstand in a trial match a few weeks ago, but this is the first premiership contest Shark Park will host since 2019. It will also be the first in-person coaching appearance for Craig Fitzgibbon, who missed the Canberra loss last weekend under Covid protocols. It’s safe to say Cronulla has plenty to play for.
I’m not quite on board the Lane Train just yet, but I’m sure checking the timetable for its arrival.
Brad Arthur will be looking for some defensive resolve after his team made the Titans look like the Sea Eagles or Rabbitohs, carving through the Parramatta right edge like Peter V’landys slicing through the NRL media department. Nico Hynes and co. will ask plenty of questions of the Parramatta defence, so let’s hope the Eels have all the right answers after blanking in round one.
Game Info
Date: Saturday March 19, 2022
Venue: Shark Park, Cronulla
Kick-off: 5:30PM AEDT
Referee: Peter Gough
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo
Numbers
Head-to-Head: Played 82, Eels 42, Sharks 47
Odds: Eels $1.70, Sharks $2.15
Lines: Eels -2.5, over/under 43.5
Fact: Parramatta has not won at Shark Park since 2014 and has one win there in 7 attempts since 2009
Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
Not long before half time last week I was feeling very smug. Here’s the flashback to my punting tip from the match preview:
“Select the first half line/over under double market and take Parra at -5.5 points with over 22.5 total first half points. The odds are currently $3.10.”
At 26 to 12, that tip was looking very sweet. Then I opened my mouth to brag about my wisdom. We all know how that worked out!
So I’ll do two things this week. Firstly, I’ll look for even more value. And secondly, I’ll keep my trap shut.
Therefore, with my confidence about an Eels win relatively high, that strong desire for value has me hitting the “score a try and win market”.
I’m selecting Isaiah Papali’i to score a try at any time, along with an Eels win, and that’s returning a juicy $6.00.
Happy, responsible punting.
Sixties
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Oregon Kaufusi. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Ray Stone 17. Nathan Brown.
18. Jake Arthur 19. Mitch Rein 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Hayze Perham 22. Wiremu Greig 23. Solomone Naiduki 24. Sam Loizou.
The casualty ward is filling up as Ryan Matterson, Sean Russell and Marata Niukore join Maika Sivo and Haze Dunster on the sidelines. While depth in the outside backs is stretched to the limit, middle is one area the Eels are blessed to have significant reserves, particularly with Nathan Brown returning from injury via the bench.
Brad Arthur has opted for experience and a positional shift to cover for Sean Russell, with Tom Opacic coming into the side following his four-try day in reggies last weekend, and Waqa Blake moving to the wing. As long as Waqa goes low and hard instead of airborne and awkward on his finishes, he’ll be fine as a flanker.
Oregon earns an unexpected promotion to the starting side
Matterson is out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury, while Niukore has a worryingly indefinite calf injury. Oregon Kaufusi was impressive enough last week to earn the starting call-up, while Bryce Cartwright takes the place of Jake Arthur. It leaves the bench short on options should an outside back go down injured or for a HIA. I think it is crucial to have outside backs coverage on the bench in today’s game, and while Cartwright can cover just about anywhere in a pinch, a specialist such as Perham or even Rankin would be my preferred approach.
Cronulla Sharks
1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Ronaldo Mulitalo 5. Matt Ikuvalu 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nico Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane. 14. Aiden Tolman 15. Siosifa Talakai 16. Royce Hunt 17. Andrew Fifita.
18. Luke Metcalf 19. Cam McInnes 20. Connor Tracey 21. Jenson Taumoepeau 22. Lachlan Miller 23. Jayden Berrell 24. Franklin Pele.
No changes to the Sharks from last weekend, though Cam McInnes is an intriguing name in the reserves. He probably has to pass a fitness test closer to match day, but he will be a big inclusion should he be able to play.
Andrew Fifita has been seen in a moon boot, which isn’t usually a good sign somebody will play on the weekend. If not McInnes, Pele seems the man most likely to come in, and is probably the more dangerous player. He’s got a bit of Suaia Matagi about him, in that the only skill I have seen from him so far is a complete lack of self preservation instincts when returning kicks.
Matt Ikuvalu stands out as a target in that squad, he will defend on the left edge and presents Bailey Simonsson a chance to make up for what we will charitably call a “muted” debut last weekend. Expect an early aerial assault aimed at the Sharks winger.
The Game
The Sharks pack miss an awful lot of tackles, a trend from last season that carried over into 2022. It’s a bad sign against an Eels team that rumbles through the middle so effectively and was happy to pick at the fringes of the ruck last weekend. Reed Mahoney is going to be crucial, choosing his times to run but also scooting and passing to attract defenders and create better one-on-one situations for the Eels forwards against Sharks forwards, inviting those missed tackles.
Cronulla will be looking to establish themselves in the middle more effectively, possession and field position were against them for long periods last weekend and the yardage totals of their pack were pedestrian. They generally lost the contact battle against Canberra, conceding plenty of offloads which will be an area of focus for Parramatta after an unusually conservative first round with only ten offloads made.
Reg was immense last week, and I expect more of the same in this one
Where Cronulla could be dangerous is the combination of Hynes and Kennedy. Hynes is fast across the field and uses that to create overlaps, particularly effective against compressed defence. Kennedy chimes into the line at pace then exploits indecision as defenders drift, and his ballplaying has improved enough to feed the talented Sharks outside backs. If Hynes or Kennedy choose to go short, Briton Nikora offers a threatening running game and Teig Wilton ran a good line for a try last week as well.
Another area to watch will be scrums, where Parramatta fell victim to a few trick plays last year and Cronulla has already shown last week they’re willing to try a few things from the scrumbase with good ball. Blayke Brailey was the threat in that play, a sign the young rake is gaining confidence in his running and ball playing.
But enough about the Sharks, why was the Eels’ right edge defence so bad last week? The main concern was an inability to shift the line when one or both Titans halves moved quickly across the field, creating an overlap from the middle that manifested on the wing. On the first two tries, Clint Gutherson was caught defending in the ruck and couldn’t join the line, it seemed to be a Titans attacking ploy to shift when Gutho was caught next to the ruck. This also takes away the “eyes” of the defensive line, with the fullback usually responsible for calling on the line to number up.
The compressed Parramatta defence is designed to only be beaten by those lofted passes such as the one for the Titans first try (ideally going backwards), the theory being the cover can get across and beat the man to the corner as the pass floats. This is tough when the cover has to run from the other side of the posts. It also requires good decision making out wide, and on the second try had Mitchell Moses been aware the Titans had a two man overlap outside he may have rushed Sexton to shut the play down early.
On the third try the Eels defensive line handled things about as well as they could following a break, but a lack of time to set the line and again, the fullback making the tackle prior, meant the Titans had space. The break itself was a bit of a loose ball fluke, so I’m willing to let this one go.
I gave Bailey Simonsson some flack in the grades this week, and while none of these overlaps were his fault he never put himself in a position to shut anything down. He didn’t pressure the ball carrier to try and force a mistake or leave himself enough room to cover the outside man, he just got caught in no-man’s-land and flailed a bit. It’s a tough spot for a winger to be put in, trying to shut down a two-on-one, but at least force the attacker to execute rather than making it a training run for them.
I’m not as concerned now as I was when watching live, as the combination of a Titans gameplan that we didn’t adjust for (spreading when Gutherson was in the ruck) and some passive play from a new edge combination of Simonsson, Penisini and Moses seems to be the cause. It wasn’t bad reads or poor form, just numbers. That’s easier fixed than bad tackling technique or lack of trust in the men around you.
The Lowdown
Cronulla has the tools to execute a similar gameplan to the Titans, with an even more dangerous ball runner in Nico Hynes. The key to success for Parramatta will be limiting those chances. Nearly every try for the Gold Coast came from gifted field position, and once the Eels started to hold onto the ball (and keep it with a few good captain’s challenges) they choked the Titans out of the contest. I expect them to be able to strangle the Sharks in a similar fashion if they can just hold the damn ball.
There is nothing to worry about with the attack. Parramatta threw some great shape at the Titans, running in diamond formation with support inside and out, particularly on that left attacking edge. Dylan Brown and Shaun Lane need to be the big improvers for Parramatta this year and both showed very encouraging signs before Dylan was forced into the centres where he disappeared.
It’d be a brave punter to back the King to have two bad games in a row
The Sharks will key on those quick, almost no-look passes to the winger when Gutherson and Moses sneak into the line on that edge, but I expect Brad Arthur to have some variations on those plays to exploit any overcorrection. Catching Greg Marzhew out isn’t exactly a crowning achievement for any side but on the eye test some of those passes to Russell would have beaten the best defenders.
I’ll say this in most previews for games against “the rest”: this match is Parramatta’s to lose. Cronulla look solid this year, good top eight contenders, but they still sit on the low side of the gap between the top six and the trailing pack. Field position, ball control, defensive discipline and attacking execution should be enough for a comfortable Eels win. Easy for me to say, right? It might just come down to the King. Gutherson had an unhappy game last weekend, if he gets things right we’ll be tough to stop.
As long as the team bus doesn’t pull in to Engadine Maccas on the way to the ground, I can’t see Parramatta going ScoMo in this one. Go you Eels!
Prediction: Parramatta 26 d Cronulla 16
Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson
Nice summary Gol. I think based on last week against the Raiders defence is going to be a big problem for the Sharks.
I reckon the Sharks will get better each week as their new combinations settle – and that’s in both their attack and their communication and team work in defence.
Good point about the missed tackles by the sharks, looking forward to the Eels middles testing this.
The Sharks had the wood on the Eels for much of the time Gallen was there but the tide has changed and the eels have won 3 of the last 4, not sure if home ground will be enough to save the Sharks.
A test of the eels resolve this week, how do they respond to the hot / cold effort last week?
Dylan has spoken about that in this weeks media call. He spoke about playing in a way that suited the Titans then settling down to play our type of footy. I called it touch footy in the first half and a grinding win in the second. One was on the path to a high scoring loss. The other took control for a grinding win.
Tks Gol. Your review of our defensive lapses was good to absorb. Souths were throwing great shape out wide at the Storm last night, but dropped the ball at least 6 times. I was thinking ‘ this wouldn’t be pretty if it was us’. The Storm were actually numbering up OK but the shape and ball movement was troubling them, we need to get our head around this stuff ASAP. I’ve been a worn record on this one, but when Niukore is on the park, we just seem to defend better. Also keen to see Nathan Brown with his body repaired.
Yeah Melbourne did well at rushing the right man and forcing those tap-ons that the outside men couldn’t handle. It was all very well scouted. That’s what I’m looking for from Simonsson and all of that edge, forcing those tough plays when they know they’re outnumbered. We backed off and were too passive last week.
Gol, you have not mentioned Pappa or any edge forward getting across to cover….. only Moses, Penisini, Simonsson and a preparedness for Guth.
We need to cover across in a swarm, specifically the edge forwards.
Titans played to a plan last week, drew us out wide to Fifita where we sured up and then a quick change back to attack to our right. Fifita was the decoy!
The other way is an umbrella defence to cut off the switch back, I commented that maybe against the attacking side/scrum in our 30 that Dylan Brown pack’s loose as lock with a view to the umbrella or covering across. I don’t believe Papa can move quickly in a lateral sense. Dylan is the only other cover that has the speed to do it. i.e. cover like an old fashioned lock. Not sure why Kaufusi is playing lock, but Nathan Brown is not a noted cover defender either. With someone moving across from the ruck then Penisini and Simmo can cover/mark their direct opposition.
You can bet a lot of attack is going to be thrown at that right side, if it is just kicks we should be ok but ball’s through the hands will be on as well as a single kick from Hynes or Moran to an unmarked winger if Simmo leaves him alone out there….Just my thoughts.
I believe this area was not addressed adequately last week.
Gutherson sometimes is slow at moving in-line with the ball as it moves along the opponent’s backline
Like many teams we are playing the fullback in the line. I don’t like it to be honest.
I believe that there was a poor defensive attitude in the first half last week. It started with errors in possession but the mindset wasn’t good I defending errors. Titans players had far too much space as our line speed allowed the shifts. We dominated territory and possession in the second half, and that removed the pressure. Our red zone wasn’t tested in the second half, so whether we fixed the issues remains to be seen.