The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 22, 2021: Eels vs Sea Eagles

Game Info

Date: Saturday 14th August, 2021

Venue: Sunshine Coast Stadium, Bokarina

Kick Off: 7:35PM AEST

Referee: Grant Atkins

Head-to-head:  Played 144, Parramatta 54, Manly 86, Drawn 4

Odds: Eels $4.40 Sea Eagles $1.20

Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Manly 28 d Parramatta 6, Bankwest Stadium, R11 2021

Manly 22 d Parramatta 18, Brookvale Oval, R10 2020

Parramatta 19 d Manly 16, Bankwest Stadium, R4 2020

Parramatta 32 d Manly 16, Bankwest Stadium, R25 2019

Background

It’s all a bit bleak, isn’t it?

I’d spent all season looking forward to these late games, where the Eels would get to prove once and for all that they are the real deal. It was an ideal draw, sharpening the team for a finals campaign by taking on every opponent we’d need to beat to win the comp, and instead of marching towards a title we’re going so bad that Paul Kent thinks he can turn fans against our captain again with a few dirty rumours and only lockdown rules are protecting the Kellyville training grounds from a mob of pitchfork wielding fans demanding Brad Arthur’s head.

The most frustrating and disappointing thing is that, yet again, we’re not seeing the best this Parramatta team can do. If we played near our best footy and couldn’t match the Roosters and Rabbitohs, fair enough, we’re not good enough, back to the drawing board. We didn’t even give ourselves a chance to do that. This mythical “best Parramatta” remains a ball of potential, eclipsed by yet another late season collapse into predictable footy and a once dominant middle being belted week in, week out. If the Eels team that beat Melbourne and Canberra early in the year was the same one that played these last few weeks, I’d at least feel a little justice. Instead it is another season of what could be. I’m tired.

So what is going wrong? Is there any hope? Is one open letter from Junior Paulo enough to turn our season around? Does Gutho really want a million dollars (no, he doesn’t). Let’s shake it off and get into the preview.

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

If you’ve jumped off punting on Eels matches, it’s hard to blame you.

If you’ve anchored your wagers on an Eels loss over the last couple of weeks, I congratulate you.

Given that TCT is an Eels supporter site, I find it difficult to tip against our boys. I’ve done it before but it just feels wrong.

There is temptation in the points start market this week. That 14.5 start to the Eels carries odds of $1.85. It’s not a big return, so if you’re looking for greater value the Eels are at $4.40 to win.

Surely the Eels will bust a gut against an old foe like Manly. If they do, I’m tipping a tight contest.

Then again, you might prefer to keep the wallet closed.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

 

How we look

Shithouse.

I’m upset with the current team, so this preview is going to include images of classic Eels players instead. We could use some of Pricey’s fire.

Last weekend really highlighted a point the preview had made a few weeks earlier: once Parramatta start doing something that doesn’t work, they respond by continuing to do it, over and over again. South Sydney collapsed their middle defence and muscled the Eels out of the contest, and the Eels responded by putting the head down and continuing to charge into a brick wall. There was no scope to adjust, which is baffling because early in the season Parramatta made great use of the passing of Nathan Brown and Junior Paulo to stop exactly this: one man being monstered by four. 

Maybe it is a confidence in their ability to win contact, or pride in not getting beaten in the middle of the park, but sometimes you need to take the path of least resistance. The compression of the Rabbitohs line gave Waqa Blake some good looks against the edge defence, it’s a shame all he ever sees is a gap to step back inside into, but he was dangerous even if he is predictable. Isaiah Papali’i is one of the best edge runners in the league this season, and Ryan Matterson once had a reputation for that kind of work too, both need to be employed more productively. The halves need to step in and make these edge shifts happen, but even just some two pass runs would help here.

I hope you will forgive me for not going back and watching the last three games again, but one thing I haven’t seen the Eels do that other teams do is group running from forwards, such as diamond shapes and running in pairs. The easiest way to force a mistake from a defender is to force choices on them, and too often defenders against Parramatta only have one choice to make: whether they can put three or four men into the tackle on Junior Paulo. Getting into shape on early tackles is hard, you’ve just defended a set and run back 30 metres, but half hearted decoys may as well be no decoy at all, and the Eels big men will continue to be belted until defenders are punished for cheating the middle.

That middle defence can also collapse in knowing they have the time to cover the slow, predictable backline shifts Parramatta implement, but we’ve talked so much about the attacking problems and I don’t have anything new to say about that. Parramatta’s attack is stale and not fit for purpose, crying about it again won’t change that.

This could be a whole article in itself, but I’m a big supporter of club administration bringing in a new coaching structure around Brad Arthur to change our attacking performance, rather than just sacking him and hoping the next guy can improve things. Like how NFL teams use offensive and defensive coordinators who have near total control of those aspects of the game, I’d like to see the attacking side of the game handed off to somebody with new ideas.  The accepted NRL format of a head coach, his assistants, and some support staff should be challenged. You might not see it for three horrible losses, but BA has plenty of the qualities you want in a coach, and I’d be adjusting the structure of coaching to fill his weaknesses (attacking innovation and structure) rather than throwing the baby out with the bathwater, sacking him and starting again with a scrapheap coach like Shane Flanagan or Paul Green who are no guarantee to do any better. 

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Michael Oldfield 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Isaiah Papali’i 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Will Smith 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Marata Niukore 17. Makahesi Makatoa. 18. Ray Stone 19. Will Penisini 20. Haze Dunster 21. Jake Arthur.

Sterlo has unfortunately not quit Channel 9 to come and play halfback for the Eels for the rest of the year.

The Parramatta casualty ward is filling at the wrong end of the year, with Reed Mahoney gone for the season, RCG out until the finals, Oregon Kaufusi recovering from concussion and Blake Ferguson sidelined with a calf injury. On top of this, Mitchell Moses is playing busted; if you took a drink every time the commentators talked about how painful it must be for him to be playing with a back fracture you’d have mercifully blacked out for the second half last week. Clint Gutherson doesn’t look right either after he copped a rib injury back against the Titans. 

Haze Dunster finds himself dropped for being haunted by the ghost of Josh Mansour, with veteran Michael Oldfield getting his Blue & Gold debut on the right edge that Tom Trbojevic and co. tore to pieces last time around. Good luck Oldy. Isaiah Papali’i moves to prop and Shaun Lane returns to the starting team, while Makahesi Makatoa gets a much deserved debut off the bench. Big Mak killed it through NSW Cup while it was still being played and shouldn’t let anybody down, congratulations on the first grade debut at age 28 my man.

Manly

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Karl Lawton 16. Curtis Sironen 17. Kurt de Luis. 18. Moses Suli 19. Cade Cust 20. Jack Gosiewski 21. Ben Trbojevic.  

Manly’s casualty ward is stacked with middle forwards, leaving their bench a little light on this week. Their starting back row has certainly played beyond their reputation this year, Olakau’atu is becoming a big attacking threat and great runner, while Josh Schuster is a true “half in a forward’s body” who plays with a lot of confidence and is a great line runner. Sironen and Lawton are handy players to have coming off the bench too, if a little undersized.

The three quarter line isn’t exactly filled with household names, but Parramatta has probably kept Brad Parker in first grade as half of his career highlight reel has come against opposition in Blue & Gold. Making nuffies look like worldbeaters isn’t a great feeling, but he pops up in the right place and is strong enough to beat one-on-one tackles in broken play. Morgan Harper is more traditionally talented, while Garrick is a finisher and Saab a speedster. Sivo v Saab is a very unfortunate matchup, but Manly didn’t really venture that way last time around.

Intangibles

Giving each other funky haircuts clearly isn’t overcoming the pains of bubble life for Parramatta, though I doubt the Eels current issues are solely related to living together in a Gold Coast hotel. The way Sydney looks I expect the NRL season to finish in bubble conditions, so the Eels better get used to it, quick.

It should be warm and dry up on the Sunshine Coast, probably a disadvantage to Parramatta since most of their best football has looked suspiciously like the old fashioned “wet weather” type, middle runs, bruising play, ball security. Not that they look capable of that right now, and Manly did pretty well beating the Eels at that game back in round 11, so I’m not sure what kind of weather would favour them. Snowstorm? Heatwave? Isolated meteor strike that only hits Tom Trbojevic’s hamstring?

Grant Atkins is the referee, but whatever. The Eels are 2-2 with him this year, Manly 1-0. 

The Opposition

Last time the Eels played Manly was a one-sided affair that Parramatta never really got into. You wouldn’t know it from the statistics, where the Eels won possession and matched Manly for metres, tackle breaks and offloads, but in a classic tale of “stats don’t tell the story” there is no statistic that measures how the clueless Eels right edge fell to pieces every time Tom Trboejvic joined the line. Turbo put on four line breaks and two tries, scoring one more himself (okay, maybe there are some statistics that tell the story) and generally toyed with the Parramatta side. He’s only gotten better since then, a scary proposition for another untested right edge combination.

Photo from the 1982 Parramatta Eels grand final celebrations

Let it never be forgotten that half of the Eels grand final victories have come against Manly.

Melbourne was credited with “containing” Turbo last weekend, where he only put on two tries. It reminds me of when Ricky Stuart said his 2009 Cronulla side “contained” Jarryd Hayne well in a 30-0 defeat that saw Hayne score two tries and run for 200 metres. The Storm’s primary innovation in defending Turbo was to, you’ll never believe this: mark up on him. The defensive line called out his position and identified when he got into his favourite attacking shapes and adjusted. Sadly even this feels too much for an Eels defence that was absolutely clueless against shape last weekend and defended like they were a man short down the right side every time the ball went there.

Not that Turbo is their only threat, just their most obvious. Schuster also had a field day against the Eels last time (admittedly playing in the halves rather than back row) and will threaten lazy ruck defence, and Martin Taupau massacred Parramatta with late offloads. I’ve already mentioned Saab against Sivo, which will force Clint Gutherson to cheat that side of the field to cover middle distance kicks and leave him far away from the right edge that will need him barking instructions and covering breaks. I will be especially disappointed if Parramatta concede on set play kicks to Saab, knowing it is such an obvious tactic. Sivo should just flatten him if he sees a kick go through and give away the penalty.

Manly are by no means an elite defensive unit, though we said the same about the Roosters and Rabbitohs the last two weeks and Parramatta couldn’t challenge those defensive lines. They’ve conceded 20+ to the Titans, Tigers, Sharks, Raiders and Storm in their last seven games, only holding out the pathetic Bulldogs (zero) and the BBQ-bashed Dragons (18 points). They don’t mind conceding through the middle of the field either, meaning there might be opportunities to go back inside or find Clint Gutherson in support if we can get offloads away. 

Those chances may come against the Manly bench which is certainly lacking in size. Last time around the bench impact of Sean Keppie and Toafofoa Sipley kept Manly in control of momentum, and this time both men are out and a group of edge players replace them in Sironen and Lawton. Kurt de Luis is the only noted prop on the Sea Eagles bench, and while he has had some busy stints and made good metres off the bench in his limited chances this year, he’s a 25 year old debutant, third string prop. The Eels own bench has thinned out, but it would be a good week for Niukore, Matterson, Lane and Papali’i to stand up.

The story

I haven’t got a lot to say about this one. Reed Mahoney was the Eels best this year, and he’s gone. Joey Lussick is a handy replacement, but without Reed’s ability around the ruck (which hadn’t been very effective in recent weeks anyway) one of the few remaining Parramatta attacking threats is gone. That leaves Mitchell Moses getting the ball flat footed, bombs across field, and the hopes that Maika Sivo remembers he is a fast, strong man that can trample other men. It doesn’t feel like it will be enough.

I bet these guys could mark up on an edge shift.

There is a lot of talk coming from the Parramatta camp this week. Open letters from Junior, Ryan Matterson declaring they’re fired up, Brad Arthur assuring that the season is not done for. I can’t remember a time when the Eels have risen in the face of adversity rather than collapsed under it, so forgive me for being sceptical. Talk is cheap and we’ve heard too much of it over the years, if you are fired up how about you come out and steamroll Manly? The last two weeks of the Eels “playing for Western Sydney” haven’t inspired much confidence. 

To win this game Parramatta needs to take the pressure off a banged up spine. Clint Gutherson and Mitchell Moses aren’t saving them here. That means effective offloads from Junior, Matto and Lane, creative ways to find Papali’i, Lane and Bryce Cartwright running at flat footed defenders on the edge, and Dylan Brown finally taking some playmaking responsibility. 

The Eels also need a committed defensive effort, which feels like an even bigger challenge. Sorry for being so bleak in this preview, but the facts are I’m beaten down, not just by three weeks of inept Parramatta football, but years of the same story. You can only hope for the best so many times, and I think Reed going down in the dying stages of a flogging was the final straw for season 2021. A big effort this week will be a pleasant surprise, but honestly it may not be enough against one of the form teams in the competition and the best player in the world right now. All we have is hope, now. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Manly Sea Eagles 34 d Parramatta Eels 12

Man of the Match: Tom Trbojevic

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19 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 22, 2021: Eels vs Sea Eagles

  1. !0 Year Member

    Totally agree with the write up .. However….I don’t expect anything but a flogging. I do subscribe to the theory that BA is the coach for us. But is he willing to grow and totally revamp his coaching team? I am not too sure. We should…. When we get a chance…. Send him to done big sporting clubs so he can learn and grow. But is he too stubborn to want to learn? The thing BA has going for him…. Apart from being a solid coach…. Is he bleeds blue and gold…… If we replace him we need someone the same.

    1. BDon

      Maybe start with the All Blacks, their regime includes psyche stuff based on the Israeli Mossad. Yeah…probably a bit dark for a sunny Saturday morning.

  2. Eelboy

    Yes, a letter from Junior Paulo can make a difference. It saved me from confusing being a Parramatta supporter with being a media critic. It reminded me to stop saying “no, Mahoney” and say “Go, Lussick”. It reminded me its not about “No RCG” but rather “run hard Maka”. It’s game day and I was up early like Christmas Day. This is sport and we have a challenge, a contest and 80 minutes of soap opera to partake in. We are rightly underdogs, how good! If we pull of the upset it will be delirious. There is a present under the tree, how lucky are we, can we unwrap another week in the top four. Go Parra, Go Coach Authur, C’mon Eels, ears back and run son.

  3. Sec50

    I agree with BDon about the psychology of the team. Sixties, do we employ a sports psychologist and if not why not?This is a team crying out for one.
    I can empathise with your take on our chances. I have decided however I am personally going to watch with optimism and not criticise our team (at least aloud). I know it defies reality but I am doing that for my own peace/piece of mind. I also irrationally believe that if our supporters believe we will transfer our positive energy to the team.
    But anyway I would love an answer about the Sports Psych as i am of a view that is paramount for success. The body language of the team has been terrible these past weeks. I remember watching a previous team before the Knights GF sitting in the dressing shed coached by Smith. They looked like they had played the game already and events showed they had. It was a serious case of over optimal arousal. That is not the problem with our team now but I certainly feel it is a mental problem that should be addressed by an expert.

  4. Mick

    Theres plenty of motivation to turn up for this game and make it a good 80 min contest. It’s OK to lose, it’s not OK to never be in the contest. They need to build a game, be clinical and patient. If they do that, I’ll be happy.

    If we see another performance like the last few weeks, I have to think it comes down to season fatigue and just the wrong strategy to build a season. Maybe needing to rest players more regularly through the season, better bench rotation so people aren’t constantly playing 80 min games etc.

    So for this week, I have some optimism, Manly are beatable, we’ve had a decent 8-9 day turn around, and fresh blood in the team. Fingers crossed, go the eels.

  5. Trouser Eel

    There’s a reason we’ve been in the top 8 all year. I haven’t given up yet and I don’t think our guys have either.
    Chin up Gol. Thanks for the usual quality preview.

  6. Scott

    I remember a time when Wayne Bennet sacked his entire staff it was basically they go or he goes and we’ll he’s still coaching and kev Walters is not rated by players . Maybe B Arthur needs to go down that road . You TcT guys watch the pre season and year after year we see this compressed defence and year after year we get burned on the wide ball something has to change .

  7. Hopeful Eel

    Good news is that Lussick is a pretty great replacement for Reed.

    I love Reed and we will miss him, but he hasn’t been 100% since the Titans game and Lussick has most of the skills Reed does. Reed is probably a better kicker and maybe gives us a touch more width from dummy half, but Lussick has decent width too and is deceptively strong around the ruck. He is also a bigger body and likes to whack people in the middle.

    1. The Captain

      I was actually looking forward to watching Lussick play tonight. Unfortunately he played absolutely terribly. His service from dummy half was appalling.

      1. Trapped in the 1970’s

        No it wasn’t his best game and he was certainly a bit rusty from lack of match play, but rustiness had nothing to do with that penalty on the second tackle of the game that resulted in them not getting the ball for another 10 minutes.

  8. Milo

    Fair read Gol, i cannot disagree with this, maybe except the score.
    I am hoping for a closer contest, but realistically am having trouble finding a win.
    22-18 Manly for me, and i am looking at strong intent for the game…..

  9. Peninsulaeel

    Weak in the middle
    Weak in defence
    Weak in attack
    Weak in attitude
    And the cherry on top, the coach says he has no idea in the presser.
    “Guess it’s over, call it a day, sorry that it had to end this way, No reason to pretend We new it had to end some day”…Goodbye Brad Arthur!

  10. The Captain

    Whilst I’ll never stop supporting our club, tonight the team embarrassed us as fans. To watch what is, on paper, a talented roster get absolutely carved up whilst we dish up the same outdated tactics week on week, and to top it all off to see the utter lack of leadership on the field was so disheartening.

    The boys themselves said that this week was their line in the sand. They failed their own test, so what are the consequences?

    For what it’s worth I wasn’t expecting a win, but I wasn’t expecting to be embarrassed. What a shameful performance by everyone from coach to players. And I’m disappointed that we trot that out for Maka’s debut, he tried hard and deserved better.

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