Game Info

Date: Saturday, 29 May 2021

Venue: Stadium Australia, Homebush

Kick Off: 5:30PM AEST

Referee: Gerard Sutton

Head-to-head: Played 129, Parramatta 55, South Sydney 71, Drawn 3

Odds: Eels $2.20 Rabbitohs $1.67

Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

South Sydney 38 d Parramatta 24, Semi Final, 2020

South Sydney 38 d Parramatta 0, R16, 2020

Parramatta 26 d South Sydney 14, R12, 2019

South Sydney 26 d Parramatta 20, R20, 2018

Background

I don’t want to talk about it. Last week was trash, let’s move on. 

We’re playing the Rabbitohs this week, they’re coming off giving up 50 to the two premiership favourites in the space of three weeks and a Wayne Bennett ice blast, walking out of the sheds without a word to his team. One of those losses was with a B-team thanks to injury and suspension, but it is clear there is a gap between the Rabbitohs and the best teams in the competition. Are the Eels one of those best teams, or are they just as likely to have the best put them to the sword? A win against South Sydney won’t make people think this is a three team competition, but another convincing loss and Parramatta are definitely just another team. The pressure is on after a relatively cruising start to the year, can the Eels handle it?

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Ah, the mixed feelings that come from a loss that still delivers a winning punt!

Last week, I advised punters to take under 45.5 total match points for the match at the odds of $2.40. A 28 to 6 loss was not what I expected, but the total match points of 34 saw the suggested wager absolutely romp home. I also indicated that there was good odds to be found if anyone was happy to opt for even lower total points.

This week, everything points to a high scoring game. The Bunnies have had big points put on them in recent weeks, whilst they also have a lethal left side attack, capable of exploiting the Eels right side weaknesses.

However, I think it will be a tight game, and that line of 50.5 is very high.

Let’s dig back into the Head to Head/Over under double. I’m selecting Parra to win, with under 50.5 total match points, at the odds of $3.80.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

How we look

It’s tempting to blame Waqa Blake for all that ails the Eels, and evidence suggests he deserves a fair share of that scorn. The right edge conceded every try in last weekend’s rout and each one of them was due to the wide defenders being caught well short in numbers then making ineffective decisions in shutting down the overlaps. Defending from the inside out puts a lot of pressure on the centre, who needs to make good decisions on rushing or sliding, but also to communicate that numbers need to spread wide to help out. You don’t get a four or two overlap out wide just because your centre can’t tackle, and while some of the Manly plays were very well designed to draw and hold defenders on the inside, too often the overlaps started inside and were exacerbated by Waqa’s decision making and his “oil and water” combination with Blake Ferguson. Waqa isn’t the only issue, but that edge defended just fine with Marata Niukore out there, and since Blake’s return it has fallen back into old, 2020 habits.

If Waqa’s mum is reading this, I’m very sorry.

Another reason for those overlaps and the general fatigue in Parramatta’s defensive line was the number of offloads the Eels surrendered. Ineffective tackles are a problem we’ve mentioned here before, for example offloads kept the Tigers game closer than it should have been, but Manly offloaded at will, especially those killer offloads late in the tackle. Defenders are loathe to attack the legs to chop down a big forward stuck in a wrestle-dance, fearing giving away a penalty or worse, but Martin Taupau got away far too many late offloads when he was well wrapped up that essentially gave Manly an extra tackle each time it happened. Getting big men to the ground has to be a focus of an Eels defence that has often relied more on finesse this year. Luckily the Rabbitohs are second last in the NRL in offloads this season, but Wayne Bennett will happily shift his gameplan to exploit an opponent’s weakness.

The dreaded lack of composure struck against Manly as well, with some truly shocking decisions made in attack. Bryce Cartwright’s terrible grubber/penalty combination against 12 men summed up the night perfectly, until Mitch Moses dropped the ball cold when attacking the line and gave us an even better summation of the Parramatta train wreck. Reed put in some terrible kicks, both long and short, and the side-to-side attack was back too, with no commitment to the middle meaning Manly somehow had more defensive numbers on both edges despite playing with 12 men at some stages. It can’t be that bad again, surely, but it’d be nice if the team could shake these bad habits for good.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Jake Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Oregon Kaufusi 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Marata Niukore 15. Shaun Lane 16. Joey Lussick 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Haze Dunster 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Will Penisini 21. Jordan Rankin.

There’s only one story here, as Brad Arthur has gone to the ATM and withdrawn all the goodwill left in his account at Blue & Gold Army Bank, beelined for the roulette table and put it all on Waqa 4. While the roulette odds of 37/1 are about in line with Waqa Blake’s chances at shutting down a backline shift to the right edge, chasing your losses sees you ending up in a deeper hole far more often than you hit the miracle. Arthur’s famed trust in his troops to come good is being put to its ultimate test, and frankly if Waqa Blake does exactly what we expect him to do against the best left edge attack in rugby league, it is all on the coach to wear. 

Simba is back, in his “bench weapon” form after a successful stint as a centre

Elsewhere, Marata Niukore returns from suspension to take a place back on the bench and in the middle rotation, while Reagan Campbell-Gillard took a one week suspension which gives Oregon Kaufusi a rare chance to start. The Gun deserves it after being one of the few to look to be putting in last week, but RCG is a massive loss. The extended bench is unusually heavy in backs, but BA hasn’t been one for mind games, particularly with rookie debuts, so don’t expect a sneaky Will Penisini start. One of the backline being in some doubt is the more likely scenario.

South Sydney

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Jai Arrow 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray. 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Hame Sele 17. Thomas Burgess. 18. Liam Knight 19. Jaydn Su’A 20. Patrick Mago 21. Braidon Burns.

Souths are basically back to full strength, depending on how much you rate the ghost of Josh Mansour, who is resting after a concussion. Taane Milne is a steady veteran who Maika Sivo will like his chances against, though Maika’s decision making last week was so bad he’ll probably try and chip and chase over Milne rather than run through him.

Jai Arrow has moved into the starting prop role with Tom Burgess back to the bench, but Wayne Bennett does better than most coaches in getting an even rotation of his middles going. There isn’t much to fear in Nicholls, Sele and Host, but a similarly modest pack made the Eels look like amateurs last season so I’m not taking anything for granted here.

One wildcard is the impending Origin team selection, with several Rabbitohs on the fringe of the squad such as Cody Walker, Cameron Murray and even Latrell Mitchell. Walker didn’t exactly have a day out last week in what was dubbed a battle for the five eighth jersey against Jarome Luai, but this is the last chance to impress so I expect a better effort here.

Intangibles

It’s cold and it might be slippery on Saturday evening at Stadium Australia, but the biggest outside factor in this one will yet again be the referee crackdown. No sin bins in Thursday night football might be an indicator the edict has been loosened somewhat, plus Peter Gough was quietly dropped last week after the Roosters v Broncos game he officiated became a poster child for everything wrong with the crackdown. As we’ve said before, any action on softening the stance on sin bins will happen quietly, and these are two quiet actions that might mean things are going to return to normal somewhat following two crazy rounds.

Gerard Sutton is the referee, he didn’t bin anybody last week in the Raiders v Storm clash but did march four players in the debut of the new rules back in Magic Round. Parramatta have lost their last three under Sutton, including two against Souths, but generally he is one of the better officials and you are happy to see his name on the sheet come Tuesday.

The Opposition

One consolation for Eels fans this week is the recent form of the Rabbitohs, who gave up 50 to the Storm and Panthers over the space of three weeks. A lot of that is on the quality of those sides, but Souths have been a very leaky defensive side this year and last. They back themselves in a shootout, but the elite defensive sides that shut them down have managed to rack up a score in the process.

Take your pick for who the most dangerous man in the Souths team is. Cody is a good choice.

For as good as the Rabbitohs left edge is in attack, it is a bit of a liability in defence. Fox Sports credits Cody Walker with 11 try concedes, Dane Gagai 9 and Alex Johnston 7. The Eels need to trust Jake Arthur to unlock that edge, or shift Moses over there to create the plays himself. Waqa and Fergo don’t have a great attacking combination, but judging by those concede numbers on Walker and Gagai they might not need to link up to exploit that edge. 

That left edge attack though, if you can shape a weapon to strike directly to the heart of the Eels, this is what you would come up with. Latrell Mitchell is the ultimate option runner, equally adept at the tap on with quick hands, the long pass over the top and just tucking the ball and breaking a tackle himself. His decision making is sublime, even under the pressure of a rushing defender. He is fed quality ball from Cody Walker, himself a running threat that will hold middle defenders, and Alex Johnston is an elite finisher on the wing. Holding this edge to three tries will be considered a massive effort for this Eels defence.

Walker takes the reins close to the line, but Adam Reynolds and his pinpoint kicking game is what gets the Rabbitohs into position to execute. He’ll ensure the Eels’ field position tactics aren’t as effective as they have been, equally adept as Mitch Moses at pinning teams deep and shifting momentum with a 40/20 kick. Damien Cook can’t be discounted either, though he’s not the threat he once was he will keep defenders honest at the ruck and that threat goes a long way to creating the space the left edge thrives upon. 

The story

Parramatta just need to be better. Last week was a disgrace, a capitulation into old habits that burned away much of the hope the start of the season had provided. “Bad Parramatta” hasn’t been buried, it resides just under the surface and a bit of pressure from a committed opposition saw panic football, weak middle efforts and side-to-side play without earning it come straight back into the Eels gameplan. It was a loss that made me wish football didn’t exist for a week, that it was against a bitter rival made it even worse. Hopefully the players care as much as the fans do and are out to right the wrongs at Stadium Australia on Saturday night.

Brad Arthur is going to have a lot to answer for if the right edge continues to crumble.

Sadly, if Waqa Blake lines up out wide for the Eels I see no path to victory for them. The right edge crumbles in his presence, and while he might not be the sole cause, he was the unlucky one that got injured and revealed that replacing one piece of the “Wall of Blake” was enough to improve the right edge, which held just fine with Marata Niukore at centre. Brad Arthur evidently has faith in Waqa to get it right, but honestly he’s had three times as many second chances as he deserves in his short Eels career. Brad won’t be getting the sack if Blake fails on Saturday night, but somebody high up in the club should be having a sit down with him if Latrell and co. carve Waqa up yet again.

Souths have had Parramatta’s number in recent history, Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell were unstoppable in the regular season clash last year and Damien Cook was a killer in the semi final. There is certainly a path to Parramatta victory; middle dominance, keeping Souths out of the attacking quarter, patient execution off the back of Reed Mahoney picking his passing and using his big men close to the line. Yet Manly exposed the edge defence from every point of the field last week, and Souths are certain to replicate that strategy. Maybe I’m still sour after last week, maybe I’m a realist, but barring some last minute BA trickery (and if there is, well, this preview is as relevant as Paul Crawley’s opinion) I don’t see this team as named standing much chance against the Rabbitohs.

Go you Eels! Please.

Prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs 36 Parramatta Eels 22

Man of the Match: Latrell Mitchell

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