The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 14, 2020: Eels vs Dragons

Game Info

Date: Friday, August 14 2020

Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Kick Off: 7:55PM AEST

Referee: Grant Atkins

Head-to-head: Played 37, Parramatta 20, St George-Illawarra 15, Drawn 2

Odds: Eels $1.20 Dragons $4.50

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Eels 12 d Dragons 4, Kogarah, R20 2019

Eels 32 d Dragons 18, Bankwest Stadium, R8 2019

Eels 40 d Dragons 4, ANZ Stadium, R22 2018

Dragons 20 d Eels 18, Wollongong, R16 2018

Background

Last week’s swim with the Sharks was a classic mid-season episode: a fun diversion, but ultimately we’re no closer to finding out who the Ice Truck Killer is or if Parramatta has turned a corner after a month of lacklustre footy. It was a shame to see the weather deny Parramatta a chance to flex their attacking muscles back into shape against a porous Cronulla defence, but a gritty win in a tough game is a good result and great experience for the tougher contests ahead.

This week is not one of those tougher contests. The Dragons rallied for a couple of weeks but are now firmly in a “quit on the coach” cycle despite having chances to win just about every contest they’ve played in the last month. That has culminated in coach Paul McGregor quitting on the team after being told he was surplus to requirements for 2021, this will be his last game in charge of the Dragons. McGregor’s early exit marks the first time he has been ahead of the game in his seven year coaching career.

The best way to describe the Dragons this year is unsettled. Their spine looks like a testing dummy for amateur chiropractors; misshapen, bent and held together with a wooden spoon and masking tape. The marathon saga of Jack de Belin continues to haunt them, and club mainstay Tyson Frizell is counting the days until he can head up north to Newcastle. It is a game the Eels should win, and win comfortably.

That said, the Dragons shouldn’t be taken lightly. Their attack has sparked in recent weeks, led by electric, high speed fullback Matt Dufty and a revitalised (but now banged up) Zac Lomax. Ben Hunt is a new man playing at hooker, and if you give this Dragons team a sniff they’ll run in some tries on you.

Normally it feels like the Eels are on the wrong end of these stats (see our record against the Sharks, Storm or Roosters), but Parramatta has won nine of their last ten against the Dragons. Of course, they only had a win and a draw to show from the ten before that, but those dark days of 2010-2013 are well behind us, as are those same glory days of the red V. It’s nice to be the bogey team instead of playing one.

Everything points to a Parramatta victory, but Eels fans know to take nothing for granted and plenty will be shifting nervously on their lounge or in their Bankwest seats come 7:55 Friday night.

History

There was a time when the Dragons were the Eels biggest rivals, though those feelings might not have been reciprocated. St George and Manly were constant tormentors of the Blue & Gold in the 70s, playing a rough and tumble, bash and bully style of football that usually got the best of the Eels on the biggest stages. It was one of the great disgraces in Eels history that Rod Reddy was given a job at the club after what he did to Ray Price in the 1977 grand final. Of course, he ended up being terrible at his job, because he’s a dirty, cheating ratbag.

With my trusty copy of Neil Cadigan’s “The Quest for Glory” sitting deep in a storage lockup as I move house, I don’t have my usual source for Parramatta trivia from before my time so I can’t regale you with classic stories and moments. I’ll justify it by saying that history is with the St George Dragons, not the current, merged St George-Illawarra. The history between the Eels and the new entity could be written in the empty squares of a Big League crossword, but there have been some notable moments between the Eels and St Merge.

Luke Burt of the Parramatta Eels, in his jersey on a beach, holding a surfboard

Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt. Burt.

Parramatta dealt the merged Dragons their first loss in premiership football, back in their first game. This was the historic 1999 Double Header that opened the season and marked the first event at Stadium Australia, back in its 110,000 capacity days as an Olympic venue. You haven’t lived until you’ve watched rugby league from behind the posts and a good 100 metres from the action. It was also the debut game for a long haired surfer boy winger named Burt, one of the great clubmen in Parramatta history.

Back-to-back games in 2009 were another high point for the Parramatta/St George-Illawarra rivalry, where the Dragons secured the minor premiership in the final round with a convincing 37-0 victory over the Eels at Kogarah, ending a seven game winning streak for the Blue & Gold, who had secured their own finals position with a win the week prior. The Eels returned to Kogarah one week later for the 1st v 8th semi final which Parramatta controlled from start to finish, including one of the great individual tries from Jarryd Hayne and a memorable Eric Grothe Jr length of the field intercept try. Following the match Hayne admitted that the team played a bit of possum the week before, keeping most of their attacking structures in the back pocket knowing that a loss would see them play again the week after. Sure, it would be the last time the Eels beat the Dragons for four years, but it was worth it.

Our favourite journeyman David Gower is one of two current Eels to have played in the red V, with 7 games back in 2011-12. Mid season acquisition Jai Field was also a long time Dragons “why doesn’t he get a go?” candidate. Corey Norman departed the Eels for St George-Illawarra back at the start of 2019, arguably setting in motion this great era of Eels football, while Brayden Wiliame and Tyrell Fuimaono are also former Eels.

Beau Scott, Danny Wicks and Piggy Riddell are the biggest names to go from the red and white to the Blue & Gold, though many Eels fans will remember Justin Poore for his high priced fall from Origin prop to Parramatta punching bag. Henry Perenara gets to make another appearance on this list, while Michael Witt had a short, forgettable stint in the red V as well. I haven’t got it in me to go back through the St George and Illawarra teams of yesteryear to find shared history with those clubs, but wanted to specifically call out the great Steve Edge as a former Dragon and premiership winner at both clubs. I also want to mention Dean Schifilliti, because not enough people do and Schifilliti is very fun to say.

 

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

“If the weather is poor and conditions are soggy, the total match points might be difficult to achieve. In that instance, just take an Eels win or keep your money in your pocket.”

When the heavens opened up last week to create Lake Kogarah, the above advice proved to be true. So hopefully you either stayed away from the punt or just backed a Parra victory over the Sharks.

This week, if the rain stays away, I’m confident that the points will flow. If we get more rain, leave your money in the wallet.

Historically, Eels/Dragons clashes have been high scoring affairs, with the only exception being the 12 – 4 scoreline at Kogarah last year. Since 2013, nine of the eleven matches have resulted in total match points of 34 or more. In fact, six of those have seen between 44 and 50 points scored.

Looking at the “pick your own total” market, I’m suggesting a selection of over 43.5 total match points, which is returning $2.65. If you’re game, you can get $5.70 for over 51.5.

Go the Eels and happy punting. Of course, gamble responsibly.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Ray Stone 15. Marata Niukore 16. Kane Evans 17. Oregon Kaufusi. 18. Andrew Davey 19. Haze Dunster 20. Stefano Utoikamanu 21. Brad Takairangi.

The Eels are officially full strength, with Ryan Matterson returning to the starting side after a few weeks of rest following a concussion. This bench looks to be the ideal Eels middle, with Ray Stone’s versatility to cover hooker (however ordinary his service may be) earning him the utility role over Brad Takairangi.

Kane Evans was announced as a new signing for the Warriors during the week, but he will retain that bench impact role for as long as he is healthy. Sadly the prop market is so barren that it was unlikely the Eels could ever field as competitive an offer for Evans as other teams, particularly those that will pay him as a starter while his Eels future would be from the bench. For those feeling down about the loss of Kane, consider that he has played only 34 of a possible 63 games for Parramatta during his three years at the club, so you’ve already experienced life without Kane for about half of his Eels career.

One other player of note is Haze Dunster, who has stepped into the reserve back role formerly held by George Jennings. There is a good chance the youngster makes his debut if Blake Ferguson needs another rest before the finals, unless the Eels recall Jennings from the Warriors (where he has been good) on short notice. 

St George-Illawarra

1. Matt Dufty 2. Jordan Pereira 3. Euan Aitken 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Adam Clune 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Kerr 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Tyrell Fuimaono 13. Cameron McInnes. 14. Tristan Sailor 15. Kaide Ellis 16. Korbin Sims 17. Jacob Host. 18. Brayden WIliame 19. Eddie Blacker 20. Jason Saab 21. Jayden Sullivan. 

A few key outs for the Dragons, led by Origin front rower Paul Vaughan and far less deserving Origin back rower Tariq Sims. Jackson Ford is suspended, meaning the Dragons are down to their third and fourth choice front rowers in Lawrie and Kerr. In-form centre Zac Lomax was under an injury cloud but looks set to play.

It will be interesting to see how coach Paul McGregor adjusts his spine in his final coaching appearance. Does he finally throw caution to the wind and give the reins to youngsters Clune and Sailor, or does Corey Norman get to stifle backline movements with his trademark inside ball against the Blue & Gold instead of for them? Ben Hunt has played his best football at 9 or 14 this year, and Matt Dufty is in good touch, but the halves have been a major concern for the Dragons no matter who has worn the jerseys.

There is plenty of ex-Eel flavour to the side, with Norman the name most recognisable to Parramatta fans. Tyrell Fuimaono and Brayden Wiliame are also former Eels. 

Intangibles

While it won’t be as bad as last week (and Bankwest’s high tech drainage should be able to handle biblical floods better than Kogarah did) it is set to be a wet and rainy Friday in Sydney which means yet another round of wet weather football for the Eels. Considering the outs for the Dragons this probably works in Parramatta’s favour, playing through the middle and limiting the chances for Dufty and Lomax to use footwork and speed.

It still doesn’t feel right comparing home and away records in this COVID affected season, but the Dragons have a solitary away win in 2020, at Suncorp against the Titans in the early days of fans returning to the footy. The bigger intangible will be how the Dragons play in their coach’s final game. For all the “quit on the coach” talk they did win a couple of games after the Dragons board committed to Mary for the rest of the season, so maybe they do care about him enough to put in a big effort. Even a big effort from this Dragons team shouldn’t be enough to beat a full strength Eels side, but a fast start and some extra resolve to defend for 80 minutes might be enough to beat the Parramatta that trotted out against the Bulldogs or Tigers.

Grant Atklins is in charge of his second Eels game of the season, he was last in the middle for the Eels round one win against the Bulldogs. The Eels were 1-4 under Atkins in 2019, including both losses at Bankwest Stadium. If that worries you, just take comfort knowing the Dragons are 0-4 under Atkins since 2019, including two losses this year. Atkins is on the higher end for blowing six again calls and penalties, but not an outlier. He shouldn’t be a factor here.

Us

It is easy to forget as you watch both Eels edges make every defensive stop of a backline movement look like a happy accident, but Parramatta has the best defensive record in the NRL this year. The middle is iron-clad, the cover defence is strong and there is a reason why teams don’t simply target the weak edges at every opportunity: they aren’t given the chance by the aggressive Eels inside defence. It would be nice to see the outside men work as a unit after 13 rounds of footy, as the Parramatta line would be near impenetrable.

The outside woes are particularly concerning because coaches seem to have figured out how to defend the wide spread many teams have found success with this year in the early rounds. The space and overlaps that were there for Clint Gutherson to exploit when he chimed in to an attacking movement are no longer there, and teams are shifting from the inside quickly and marking up from the outside-in much more effectively than they did a month or two ago. This defensive adjustment has probably led to some of the more maligned play by Dylan Brown and Reed Mahoney in the last month. Dylan adjusted by running more at the inside, which had more space as defenders shift wide, and Reed started to target the crash ball as defenders adjusted wider to cheat the spread. Dylan exploited a version of that for his try last week, though the outside defenders in that case were cheating up to cover the short side, which sums up the Sharks defensive abilities this year.

It’s time to shine, Mitchy baby!

It will be a test of Brad Arthur in the next month to recondition his attack to exploit this new normal. BA has never been regarded as a coach ahead of the game, he isn’t a tactical innovator, but he does need to identify what has changed and help his troops take advantage of that. A lot will be on the shoulders of Mitchell Moses, who has been content to control play this season without pushing the attack. With the final seven rounds upon us, it is time for Moses to step up and be the dominant playmaker. 

Last round was a good reminder that the Eels really haven’t used the attacking kicking game to their advantage in 2020, but they do have a very effective kicker in Moses. The repeat sets are there and the high kicking game from mid field has been more effective, but Ferguson and Sivo will have size advantages over most opponents and Fergo is a noted aerial specialist. Waqa Blake loves to throw a weak hand up at bombs that will almost always lead to knock ons, but he does get to the ball well and if he can get a clean contest he will be dangerous too. Mitch Moses has good touch on kicks against the grain as well, it might be time to try and unlock Michael Jennings, Gutherson and the forwards chasing cross field chips and grubbers back across the posts.

We are taking it for granted, but this is your weekly reminder of how awesome the Eels forward pack is. Last week was the quietest Junior and RCG have been in months, and they still combined for over 300 running metres, 100 more than the Sharks starting props combined. That left enough work for Nathan Brown to casually run for over 200 metres of his own. Then you have the offloads and the ball playing, and we haven’t even mentioned the skills of Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson on the edge. This pack will win most games by themselves, and such is the high expectations of Parramatta on the back of them that we are nitpicking the performance of the halves and outside backs.

Them

Looking at the stats, you would be forgiven for thinking the Dragons were one of the contenders this season instead of a basket case. They are doing their best to drive amateur statisticians mad by not living up to the one statistical correlation in rugby league that can be relied upon: running metres means wins. St George-Illawarra sit fifth in running metres, third in completion percentage, and are in the three best teams for fewest penalties conceded, fewest missed tackles and fewest errors. So why are they so bad?

It really does come down to their halves and lacking playmaking ability. Fullback Matt Dufty leads the club in try assists with 9, and he didn’t become the permanent fullback until round 5. Adam Clune and Corey Norman have combined in the halves for the majority of Dragons games, and have only 10 try assists between them. Assists aren’t the be-all and end-all (Mitch Moses and Dylan Brown are widely regarded as in good form, but have only 9 assists between them), but the Dragons don’t have middles like Junior Paulo creating opportunities for them either, and both Dragons halves regularly fail the eye test.

Throw another inside ball why don’t you Corey?

Most of the Dragons attack runs through centre Zac Lomax or Dufty, who are both conveniently defensive liabilities. Indeed the Dragons back three should all be targeted, if Gutherson or Waqa Blake can contest a bomb with Dufty I like their chances of winning the ball, and Blake Ferguson has come very close in recent weeks to snatching the cross field kick for a try. The Dragons edges have let in a fair few soft tries over the season, ranging from simple crash-overs to defensive misreads and overcommitments that would make Waqa Blake proud. If the Eels get clean shifts going they will eventually crack the line.

Departing Dragons back rower Tyson Frizell appears to be in maintenance mode for the remainder of season 2020, happily tackling himself to a standstill but lacking the punch to his runs that made him an Origin player. Cam McInnes has similarly made up for lost time after missing the early rounds, adding some decent line running to his long standing tacklebot status. The rest of the pack deserve mention more as targets to exploit than for their prowess, Tyrell Fuimaono is a walking error, Blake Lawrie is a rare combination of complete lack of offloading and tackle breaking threat, and Kaide Ellis might not even know his teammate’s names he is so fresh to the club.

One player I wanted to note was Euan Aitken, who can be a world beater one minute and a reserve grader the next. He will be lining up against Waqa Blake, a matchup I don’t mind as I don’t trust Aitken to have the touch to unlock his outside man, and while Blake has missed plenty of tackles he usually isn’t shrugged off with strength, which is Aitken’s method of attack. It will be very embarrassing if Blake can’t win this one-on-one matchup, and it has been a while since we’ve seen that individual brilliance that makes you forget the heart attack defensive reads he makes.

How it goes

I lean on the side of the Dragons giving us a real shake in this one, but ultimately not having the talent to get over the top. They’ll play some high effort footy early, and if Parramatta can hold out against that then the points will eventually come and the Dragons have shown they crumble in pressure situations.

Having watched him at Parramatta for years, I have absolutely no fear of Corey Norman taking over the game and putting us to the sword. At this stage in his career, even a motivated Norman is nothing to fear, and he has dawdled his way through this Dragons season like he has most of his career. Corey can play a good game at his best, sure, but he needs the opposition to allow it and I don’t see the Eels giving Norman the time or the confidence to put on a show.

Just looking at the Dragons pack, would a single member of that team make the Eels starting side? You could probably make a case for Tyson Frizell or Cam McInnes, but on form I wouldn’t take either ahead of Lane, Matterson or Reed. Lawrie and Kerr wouldn’t even crack the Eels bench, Fuimaono wouldn’t even start for the reserve grade pack ahead of Davey, Takairangi or Gower. In what shapes up to be a wet game, anything other than total domination through the middle of the field would be a disappointment.

It might take the Eels a while, but they’ll eventually cruise ahead and win this one comfortably. The talent gap between the two sides is massive, and the time has come for the Eels to start ramping up to the finals after a month of grinding wins. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 26 St George-Illawarra Dragons 12

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

Classic Luke Burt image courtesy of the SMH.

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14 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 14, 2020: Eels vs Dragons

  1. BDon

    Tks Gol. You would expect that even if it’s a heavy track the Dufty/Lomax dúo out wide will be where the Dragons will look to hurt us. We have been good at nullifying obvious threats, let’s see if we can work that again. Your man for man theory looks a sound piece of opinion.

  2. Colin Hussey

    Two factors as to what may affect the result.

    Weather: The match last week was dinghy type for floods, if the ground is better at BW tonight as Gol mentions it should not play a part in the game, but depending on wet hands = slippery balls, and perhaps tired and aching legs from last weeks game may affect the team, at least with Matto back he should be fine and fresh.

    2: Referee: With Grant Atkins in charge tonight could be anything as he does neither side any favours and wonder where he gets his rule book from. Maybe his dad GA, may put him over his knees and whack into him some knowledge in the game of RL.

    Eels by at least 10 more if ground is dry, and team really focused for a higher spot on the ladder.

    1. sixties

      Atkins is probably the most pedantic of the refs Col. I believe he is quite even handed with such decisions, which means all fans of all teams have equal grievance 😁

  3. DDay

    Great preview Gol. Good point you make about teams adjusting to the eels wide dummy half pass – NBrown and DBrown are finding space arrowing back into the ruck. It does give you confidence knowing Norman is their key attacking half – he consistently goes awol. Eels should be too strong thru the middle.

  4. The rev aka Snedden

    Im going to keep it simple this week.

    Eels 42
    Dragons 8
    Ferguson to break his duck.

    Tries. Eels. Moses, Dylan, Gutherson , Ferguson , matterson, sivo , Jenko. Moses 7\7
    Dragons. Frizzel
    Goals 2\2

    Mom gutherson

  5. Prometheus

    Watching Brandon Smith last night and Harry Grant all year all I can say is RUN REED RUN ! our attack will explode from it.

      1. Prometheus

        I have to say something. Shaun Lane needs to be out of this side, his effort is nil, his impact nil . Andrew Davey has earnt his spot.

        1. Wilhelmina

          I have no idea what game you were watching, but it clearly wasn’t the same one as me. The problem was not our forwards.

          1. Prometheus

            Very astute observation, Lane was not playing as a forward he was bludging out in the backs.

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