Game Info

Date: Saturday, July 18, 2020

Venue: Brookvale Oval

Kick Off: 7:35PM AEST

Referee: Ashley Klein

Head-to-head: Played 148, Parramatta 59, Manly 85, Drawn 4

Odds: Eels $1.28 Sea Eagles $3.70

Broadcast:Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Eels 19 d Sea Eagles 16, Bankwest Stadium, R4 2020

Eels 32 d Sea Eagles 16, Bankwest Stadium, R25 2019

Sea Eagles 36 d Eels 24, Brookvale Oval, R18 2019

Eels 44 d Sea Eagles 10, ANZ Stadium, R7 2018

Background

Parramatta did little to convince the undecided of their premiership credentials on the weekend, despite emerging from Newcastle with two valuable competition points. Building a premiership campaign on defence will do that, but any Eels fan should be encouraged to see their side win despite turning over cheap possession and looking a touch wayward in attack. Maybe it is self-defence mechanisms kicking in, but reading about the Eels online and listening to their fans, you wouldn’t think Parramatta are one win away from completing half a season with a solitary loss to the defending premiers. 

That halfway point is reached following 80 minutes against bitter rivals Manly, who are still complaining about a win “stolen” from them at Bankwest back in round 4 thanks to a forward pass call that denied them a match-winning try as time expired. Personally, I relish any time a game is decided by a refereeing decision in our favour, to balance out the frustration, pain and anger when they go against us. Yet if the Sea Eagles needed extra motivation against their great rival, there it is delivered on a silver platter.

Manly is in a tailspin right now, with two of their best sidelined through injury or suspension in Tom Trbojevic and Addin Fonua-Blake. Another man who gave the Eels plenty of trouble back in round 4, Dylan Walker, is also in the casualty ward. As a result they have dropped their last three including their first game with a home crowd at Brookvale against Newcastle, and thrashings at the hands of also-rans Cronulla and St George-Illawarra. Manly are single handedly ruining the great “top seven versus the rest” stats, though treating Manly as one of the rest instead of one of the best still leaves an impressive 27-3 record of top teams against bottom ones.

Form usually means little when it comes to rivalry games, so I expect Manly to show up big time at Brookvale for this clash. Will that be enough for a weakened side that just got beaten by the Dragons? I can’t wait to find out.

What happened last time

With this being our first repeat opponent of 2020, I’ve decided against rehashing the history between the Eels and Sea Eagles here and instead will look at the last clash between the two sides. If you want to read about why we hate Manly and see a list of traitorous defectors to the peninsula, check out the round 4 preview. Screw you Jamie Lyon.

Nightmare material for the Manly defence.

Mitchell Moses was man of the match back in round 4, thanks to a controlled performance that choked the Sea Eagles out of the game for most of the contest and saw the Eels lead 18-2 shortly after halftime. It wasn’t until a few basic errors crept into the Eels game that Manly snuck back into the contest, putting themselves in a position to win with a last play gambit. I initially attributed the poor handling to the Eels first damp winter game at Bankwest, but since that time Parramatta has sat middle of the pack for handling errors. As they showed against Newcastle, the Eels have improved in stopping those errors turning into opposition points, which was costly in round 4.

One key aspect of the previous match was forward dominance. The match ebbed and flowed in terms of which pack was on top, but it was always clear one side was in control of the battle of the middle, it was rarely a traditional arm wrestle. Addin Fonua-Blake doubled the next best Manly forward’s post contact metres and really led the side. His absence will be felt this time around.

Round 4 was also when Parramatta fans started to realise something might be wrong with the Eels right edge defence. Fergo and Waqa were responsible for two tries conceded thanks to their miscommunications and the third was a result of Waqa trying to put the big shot on Dylan Walker instead of, you know, tackling him. You can’t say that right edge has been fixed, but last weekend they at least tried something different as Waqa Blake rushed up on inside men with abandon, even going as far as three or four men in. It worked, but it is the type of defence that a gameplan could easily exploit and is unlikely to be successfully repeated this weekend.

Not really related to how this week will play out, but round 4 at Bankwest was a textbook showcase of why people don’t trust the bunker. Four different “slight movement of the ball in the putdown” tries were adjudicated in different ways, with Dylan Walker and Kane Evans awarded and Oregon Kaufusi denied for near identical putdowns. It was a herald for the issues that blew up about bunker officiating last weekend, though it was largely ignored at the time thanks to ‘that’ forward pass call delivering the media and fans their referee outrage quota for the weekend.

Slow motion replays and over-analysis plagued those calls, but worse was that dissecting slow motion footage like it was the Zapruder film still resulted in three different rulings. The Eels were better than the refereeing that night and Manly weren’t, and the best way to overcome rough officiating is to be too good for the referee to matter, but Parramatta fans are still very sensitive to referee failures after years of needing everything to go their way for a chance of victory. It will take some getting used to, being on the other side of that and winning despite the calls that go against you.

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

I trust that, as advised, any punters waited till the last minute before making their punting decision last week. The heavens opened up in western Sydney in mid afternoon, and with the threatening skies approaching Newcastle it was not the best day to gamble on a high scoring game. And though the weather held off for much of the match, punters were still best advised to keep their wallets closed.

This week, the tip is looking at an entirely different market. I’m feeling confident about Maika Sivo scoring two or more tries. If, like me, you believe that he’ll continue his recent form, you can get the sweet, sweet odds of $4.

Happy punting. Gamble responsibly!

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jai Field 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. David Gower 15. Stefano Utoikamanu 16. Marata Niukore 17. Brad Takairangi. 18. Daniel Alvaro 19. George Jennings 20. Will Smith 21. Andrew Davey.

The Eels are unchanged from last week, including the extended bench. Mitchell Moses gets another week on the sideline to heal up but is reportedly close to returning, while Kane Evans remains out indefinitely with a calf complaint leaving prop depth wafer thin. Peni Terepo also remains sidelined with an undisclosed ailment.

That prop depth becomes a five alarm alert with the worry around Junior Paulo, who didn’t come back after halftime against Newcastle following a back complaint and was dearly missed. I would expect him to be managed in this game if the Eels get on top, with Daniel Alvaro likely to step all the way into the starting side should Paulo be unable to go. Stefano Utoikamanu should get meaningful game time this week after Brad Arthur couldn’t find a spot to inject him last week. 

Utoikamanu’s debut was an underwhelming one, with in-game injury and match situation leaving Brad Arthur unable or unwilling to blood the rookie at crucial moments in the match. Whether this is a lack of faith in the rookie or a desire to protect him, I’d expect BA to get Stefano into the game early on this week to avoid a similar situation. Watching Tigers fans call his lacklustre debut some kind of conspiracy was amusing, and a great example of the minnow club mentality Eels fans are breaking free of with their 2020 success.

Manly

1. Brendan Elliot 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic. 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Jack Gosiewski 16. Sean Keppie 17. Corey Waddell. 18. Haumole Olakau’atu 19. Tevita Funa 20. Abbas Miski 21. Toafofoa Sipley. 

The two main threats to the Eels in the round 4 match are missing from the Sea Eagles lineup this time around in Tom Trbojevic and Dylan Walker, both injured. Addin Fonua-Blake remains suspended after giving the referee an earful that fans behind the stand at Cumberland Oval in the 70s would be proud of. You can’t be complacent facing a side like Manly but there really won’t be a better time to take them on.

Fonua-Blake is particularly tough to replace, as he plays a Junior Paulo like role in the Manly pack. His 60 minutes per game forces extra minutes from Paseka and Keppie, who are usually only relied on for 20 minute impact stints, while Waddell and Gosiewski have played near 80 minute games when required this year but Des Hasler’s preferred usage of both men is about a fifth of that.

Intangibles

Ashley Klein is the referee, which will be a disappointment to those of you hoping for less head scratching calls than we saw last weekend. Winning teams tend to rise above refereeing and Parramatta has been able to do that so far this year. All refs make bad calls, you only remember them if you lose. Manly is 3-0 under Klein since 2019, including one win this year, the Eels are 4-1 with Klein in the middle in the same period, including the win over Canberra this season.

There has been additional pressure put on the video referees after some ordinary calls last weekend, hopefully this means we see a more football-minded interpretation of rules rather than the “letter of the law” in super slow motion interpretation that saw Bailey Simonsson binned for Canberra against Melbourne. There were lapses in vigilance on the markers being square and playing the ball on the mark last weekend after a one week crackdown, but that is more a frustration than it is something that will hurt the Eels chances.

We’ve also learned a valuable lesson about the captain’s challenge when Graham Annesley stood by the decision of the bunker to use the Eels’ challenge of a call to go back in the play and find a penalty against them. There is too much going on in a play, and too short a time to make a challenge decision, for NRL players to really consider if there was a foul before the play they want to contest, but in certain situations the risk/reward will need to be considered. At the least, it was a clever challenge last week by Gutherson just to stop the Knights moment for a quick tap and a seven tackle set, like calling a timeout in basketball.

The soaking rains set for Sydney this week didn’t really eventuate, though Brookvale will likely be a bit more of a bog than usual after moderate rainfall. The maligned playing surface looked better than usual two weeks ago for Manly’s clash with Newcastle, here’s hoping it holds up through the week.

Manly bottled it in front of their home fans against Newcastle, though they were in that game up to their eyeballs at various stages but couldn’t crack the tough Knights defence. It will be cold, wet and Manly are coming off a hiding against the Dragons, so I doubt the Brookvale faithful will be in strong voice. This should help Parramatta break their recent Brookie hoodoo.

How we win

The simple answer to this question is for the Eels to play like they’ve been playing. Even the effort against Newcastle last weekend would have been likely to defeat Manly, if only on the back of its defensive strength. If Parramatta lose this game, it will be because of the intangible factors or by Manly significantly overperforming their form in 2020 thus far.

Fact is, Manly are the fourth worst attacking team in the competition, and the player responsible for either scoring or setting up 11 of the 23 tries the Sea Eagles have scored, Tom Trbojevic, is out injured. The highest score Manly has put up against one of the “good” sides this year is the 16 they scored against Parramatta, and that was with a full strength squad. The Eels have the best defensive record in the NRL, and that is with a right edge that has leaked like a Parramatta boardroom. It is very hard to see where Manly’s points will come from.

The Eels captain leads the Dally M and is in rare touch the last few rounds.

For a more detailed explanation of how the Eels will win this game, we can look at the individual matchups. Maika Sivo against anybody is a mismatch at times, but Reuben Garrick and fullback Brendan Elliot will be particularly unhappy to see the big Fijian up against them after terrorising them in the last round of 2019. Sivo quietly laid on two of the tries for the Eels in round 4 as well, making him public enemy number one for Manly this week.

Jennings against Suli will be similarly fun to watch, Suli is big and strong but won’t have an answer to the footwork of Jennings. Expect to see Gutherson drifting to the left often to create one-on-one opportunities for these men to exploit.

Manly were rather fragile through the middle last week, with the Dragons barging over from close range for a couple of tries and near tries. The crash lines of Paulo and Campbell-Gillard have mostly been used to keep the defensive line honest this year, but Reed Mahoney has found a few gaps for big men and I like the chances of the middle men to force their way over the line in this one. 

Fullback Brendan Elliot hasn’t had a happy time at the back in first grade. His positioning and his last line try-saving tackle attempts are poor, which makes it likely the Eels convert opportunities into points. The positioning side of the game is particularly interesting, as Parramatta’s wide four attack will require the fullback to identify the play and shift quickly, as well as communicating to his front line when a shift is required. This causes problems if the Eels go short as the fullback will likely need to help stop the big men from going over, but it also exposes Elliot to situations where he needs to make covering tackles, something he just isn’t very good at.

Then there is kick positioning. Parramatta have been a “through the hands” team for most of 2020, but the short kicking game of Dylan Brown will certainly come into play this week, both grubbers and chips behind the line in the Manly half. The Dragons found a lot of success off kicks last week, and while I expect the Eels to go through the hands first, if the Manly defence is up to the task, shifting to the boot will be a good option.

Dangers

As usual, it is the right side defence we need to worry about. Waqa Blake took a very unorthodox approach to defending the Knights last weekend, rushing in on centre, half or back rower at various points and successfully shutting down or disrupting Newcastle’s momentum. The results speak for themselves, but now this aggressive rush is on tape it will be a lot easier to beat with long passes, deeper attacking formation or even pinpoint kicks. I hope Waqa doesn’t go back to the well this week.

Let’s hope we see more of this from DCE.

Despite being down on troops, Manly aren’t going to just roll over in this one, they need to be ground down and the confidence sapped out of them. That requires controlled play from the Eels playmakers, something that was sorely lacking last weekend after a good effort against the Cowboys. Dylan Brown overplayed his hand several times last week, he needs to just kick deep, take safe options and let his forwards win this game. Jai Field defended well last week but was invisible in attack. He isn’t going to help much with controlling the game but he needs to find spots to inject himself into the line and needs to be a viable second option behind Dylan. Nathan Brown shouldn’t be touching the ball more than one of the Eels halves, as was the case last weekend where he had 50% more ball than Field.

While having a quiet year, you can’t write off the ability of the Manly pack, even without AFB. Martin Taupau can be a beast, Joel Thompson and Curtis Sironen are confidence players who back themselves at the line, and Jake Trbojevic serves both a playmaking and running role. Just because the Manly attack has been poor this year doesn’t mean the Eels can lay off players like Daly Cherry-Evans or Danny Levi, the latter especially loves playing Parramatta and while he was contained last time around, he played with a confidence you don’t usually see from the fringe first grader.

How it goes

I’ll be very upset if the Eels lose this one. Manly is there to be beaten in the middle of the park without Fonua-Blake, and even if Junior Paulo is a late withdrawal the Eels have it all over the Sea Eagles in the pack. The loss of AFB can’t be understated, he is second in the NRL in post contact metres, averaging nearly 10 PCM per game more than third place and behind only the ‘one-man pack’ Jason Taumalolo. He is the only Sea Eagle in the top 50 for average PCM. Without him, the pitiful Dragons dominated Manly through the middle, imagine what the in-form pack of the competition should do to them.

That said, it is in no way a gimme this week. Without Mitchell Moses, Parramatta are just a few bad set ends away from having to defend their line against hard runners like Suli, Taufua and Parker and the edge skill of Thompson and Sironen. Manly never went away in round 4, and will take confidence in that recovery from 18-2 to nearly steal the game, even if Parramatta get off to a hot start in this one. 

Brookvale has also been a very unhappy place for the Eels the last couple of visits. A baffling run of form at the ground between 2015-17 feels like a lifetime ago after being thrashed there in the last two outings. Make no mistake, the final score last time out may read 36-24, but the Eels were diabolical and never in the game. Those were both day games, not that it should make much difference, but as I said earlier, if Parramatta are to lose this one, it will be the intangibles that get them.

I feel a lot better about this game after watching the Eels win a game last week that they previously would have given away. I see the Parramatta forwards running riot here, and off of that the left edge having a day to rival their efforts against North Queensland. I’m not expecting the same scoreline as that game, but this one should be another comfortable win.

Late mail

As this preview goes to press, it has been reported that Ryan Matterson and Blake Ferguson will miss the clash through injury. This is a decent blow to the Eels, but not one I expect will change the result. My original prediction of 34-10 has been revised down, for the expectation that whoever comes in on the right edge will make that already weak side even more fragile, while the middle impact of Matterson will also be missed. Our big middles will be even more important now, expect huge games and huge numbers from RCG, Paulo and Nathan Brown.

Prediction: Eels 34 28 Sea Eagles 10 16

Man of the Match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.