Game Info

Date: Sunday, July 12, 2020

Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Gerard Sutton

Head-to-head: Played 53, Eels 20, Knights 32, Drawn 1

Odds: Eels $1.60 Knights $2.35

Broadcast: Channel Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Eels 20 d Knights 16, Bankwest Stadium, R21 2019

Knights 28 d Eels 14, McDonald Jones Stadium, R7 2019

Knights 18 d Eels 16, McDonald Jones Stadium, R18 2018

Knights 30 d Eels 4, ANZ Stadium, R13 2018

Background

I was all set to mock the Parramatta sceptics for throwing challenge after challenge in the path of the Eels before they could deem them “legitimate” in 2020, but despite winning tough, close games against strong opposition, despite winning in golden point, despite winning without their halfback and best player, a couple of challenges remain for Parramatta to conquer. The biggest challenge of all comes in about six weeks when the Melbourne Storm ride into town, but right now Parramatta needs to prove it can win a tough away game. 

Before you start the stammering buts about winning in Brisbane and the Gold Coast this year, remember what Parramatta’s “real” away form has been like for the last few years. In front of crowds, at intimidating venues, the Eels have not only failed to get the job done on most occasions, but they’ve usually been beaten handily. Brookvale, Melbourne, North Queensland, we’ve been flogged to each cornerpost at all of them. Newcastle is another such ground where Parramatta has not had a happy history, and filled with 7000-odd footy starved novocastrians it will be a massive challenge to emerge from Newcastle with the points. Are the Blue & Gold up to it? We’ll see.

Newcastle is coming off a tough win against Manly where they themselves overcame a hostile, football-starved away crowd at Brookvale. Admittedly they beat a significantly under-strength Manly side and needed a friendly call to avoid a potential late comeback, but it was a great bounce back after inexplicably falling apart against the Cowboys the week before. The Eels demolished said Cowboys last weekend in their first game in over a month against opposition outside the top eight. 

While this 2020 Parramatta team bears little resemblance to those that preceded it, they will also be cracking a significant hoodoo should they win up at Newcastle. The Eels are 8-19 total at the ground I’ve always known as Marathon Stadium (and only recently realised this was named after a sponsorship), with their only wins in the last decade coming against the 2015-16 Knights teams that finished last both years, the 2016 outfit able to win only a single game.

History

Screw Newcastle.

Alright, so the 2001 grand final is still a bit raw for me, even the best part of two decades later. Joey, Ben Kennedy and their band of novocastrian jerks denied rugby league one of its greatest ever teams and stories by steamrolling the Eels in the first half of the 2001 decider. While not my first taste of rugby league heartbreak (thanks Paul Carige) it is the one that, to this day, cuts the deepest.

Knights fans will take a postseason clash with Parramatta as a good omen, having beaten the Eels on the path to both of their premierships. Parramatta did get one back on the Knights in finals football, knocking them out of the 1999 postseason in a game I most remember for Robbie O’Davis dropping some very dirty knees into Jason Smith. Grub.

It was shaping up that Newcastle/Parramatta would become one of the great NRL rivalries, indeed if you asked me in 2002 who the top three Eels rivals were, Newcastle would have edged out Brisbane for that third spot behind Manly and Canterbury. Today it isn’t so much a rivalry as it is a bond between the two basketcases of the 2010s. If the Eels weren’t winning the wooden spoon in the last decade, chances are it was the Knights securing the stirrer. Misery loves company.

That hasn’t made a trip up the M1 any more palatable for Eels fans. Parramatta has a shocking record at Newcastle, whether it is as the victims of floggings or officiating meltdowns such as the one that led to all-time great referee Bill Harrigan being dropped after using the sin bin four times against the Eels and essentially stealing what was shaping to be a comfortable win. Even a second trip to Henny Penny on the way home couldn’t erase the bitterness from that debacle.

Current Eels halves whisperer and the man who wishes Dylan Brown was his son, Andrew Johns, has a touch of history up at Newcastle. There was also the questionable coaching swap that occurred back in 2007 when Michael Hagan moved to Parramatta for a couple of unsuccessful seasons, while Brian Smith took over at Newcastle for three equally ordinary years.

Traffic along the M1 has mostly been southbound over the years, with Timana Tahu, John Morris, Jason Moodie, Todd Lowrie, Danny Wicks, Beau Scott and Isaac de Gois among the biggest names to jump from Fanny’s to Kicks (or Huuj), with a couple of stops in between for those last three. In return Newcastle has snatched Ken Sio, Pauli Pauli and, umm, geez, Richard Fa’aoso? We’ve certainly got the better of the player movement with the Knights.

Some bloke named Peter Sterling also hails from the Newcastle region, whoever he is. He never played for the Knights, so I’m not even sure why I’m mentioning it.

 

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

The story of what could have been continued last week with the tip of over 22.5 total points in the first half. A couple of missed conversions – one off the posts from out wide by Gutho and an ordinary attempt from Feldt – saw the points from the first stanza finish at 20. After witnessing Feldt miss from in front against the Cowboys on Thursday, you’d never want to bet your last dollar on his ability to land any kick,

This sequence of narrow misses is frustrating, but that’s the risk taken if you throw coin on a game of footy. Remember – gamble responsibly.

So with that said, it’s time to fearlessly look for some value.

But before we progress any further, do not invest until the last minute. The weather forecast looks grim, and if the rain buckets down I’d be keeping the wallet closed.

On a dry track, Eels/Knights matches are relatively high scoring affairs.

Five of the last eight clashes between these two teams recorded total match points of 38 or more. The other three matches saw exactly 34 points scored.

With that in mind, I’m going to dive back into the line/over under double market. I’m selecting Parra -1.5 coupled with over 36.5 total points at $3.30.

Here’s to a change in fortune!

 

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Jai Field 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. David Gower 15. Stefano Utoikamanu 16. Marata Niukore 17. Brad Takairangi. 18. Daniel Alvaro 19. George Jennings 20. Will Smith 21. Andrew Davey.

After months twiddling their thumbs, the Eels medical staff have been flat chat this last week as Ray Stone, Peni Terepo and Oregon Kaufusi joined Kane Evans and Mitchell Moses in the casualty ward. Stone and Kaufusi both have broken hands, an affliction that hasn’t stopped Terepo playing over 100 first grade games for Parramatta.

Impressive wins in recent weeks and superhuman efforts from the starting front row have covered well for the thinning out of the Eels bench options, but the real cost will be continued wear and tear on RCG, Junior and co. as the season marches on. The return of Nathan Brown from suspension is a welcome one, expect him to put up big numbers in his comeback game.

Stefano Utoikamanu will make his long awaited Blue & Gold debut, the young, Tigers-bound prop finally had his number called after three injuries to fellow front rowers. Big things are expected of Stefano but I doubt we see much more than 10-15 minutes of him in this one, barring more injuries. He’s done fine in his limited chances against first graders in trials, but he will need to deliver on his “next Payne Haas” level of hype to match the impact Oregon Kaufusi has had in recent weeks. Don’t buy into the hype you’ve been hearing about Stefano, his path to first grade will be a far more gradual one than other recent superstar forwards.

Newcastle

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Tex Hoy 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Kurt Mann 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Aidan Guerra 13. Herman Ese’ese. 14. Starford To’a 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Brodie Jones. 18. Tautau Moga 19. Josh King 20. Phoenix Crossland 21. Connor Watson.

While the Eels front row has taken top of the props honours over the first eight rounds of the season, the Knights pairing of Klemmer and Saifiti have surely had a podium finish. Much like the Eels, Newcastle will be tested for depth on the bench, with Tim Glasby, Sione Mata’utia, Mitch Barnett and Jayden Brailey all absent. Kurt Mann has held down a halves spot for longer than many thought he would, he’s been solid this year, while Tex Hoy continues to be Newcastle’s Mr. Fix-It by taking a spot on the wing for the injured Edrick Lee.

Intangibles

Keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to Sunday afternoon; thunderstorms are predicted for the east coast of NSW around that time with soaking rain set for the several days afterwards. If that front arrives early we’ll be looking at a very soggy game of football that will both hamper the Eels expansive style but also turn this into a grinding game of football that Parramatta has thrived in this year.

That rain could ruin the first day(-ish) game the Eels have played in a long time. It has been nearly 12 months since Parramatta played football with the sun in the sky, a Sunday afternoon clash against the Dragons in early August 2019. While the shadows and dew usually impact a 4PM kickoff, it would be a big change from the damp surface of Bankwest where most of the Eels recent football has been played. Those conditions haven’t stopped the likes of Junior Paulo and Ryan Matterson from offloading at will, so in the event this is a dry weather game we could expect the Eels to keep up the free-wheeling, second phase football they’ve found plenty of success with this year.

Gerard Sutton is the referee, and the Knights have a 2-0 record under him this year against admittedly ordinary opposition. They are 3-1 under Sutton in the last two years, while the Eels are 5-1 with Sutton over that period including two wins this year. He’s adjusted to the six-again rule well enough, blows more penalties than average, and as far as referee appointments go he is as good as you get these days.

The hardest part of this game for the Eels will be dealing with a crowd for the first time. Some teams haven’t responded well to their home fans, see Manly, Brisbane, Canberra (who won but let the terrible Dragons come back late), but Newcastle should be louder than most and will be aching to support a winning team for the first time in what feels like forever. The Eels should be used to having fans in the stands after a couple of weeks in front of home and away supporters at Bankwest, but this will be the first proper away game for Parramatta since the unfortunate semi final against Melbourne last year. They have every right to be a bit nervous.

How we win

The Knights play disciplined, mistake free football, and are among the leaders in completion percentage and the lowest in ineffective tackles, penalties conceded and errors. They’re fit, they put numbers into their tackles and they grind you down through the middle. All of this makes them sound a bit like a junior version of the 2020 Eels, who sure enough, are just a little bit better than the Knights in almost all of those statistics. 

That means Parramatta should be able to beat the Knights at their own game. The initial battle between the forward packs will be immense, but once the back rowers come into play and then the bench, the Eels should have the advantage even considering the injuries to Kaufusi, Evans and Stone. The other big advantage for the Eels is offloading, in that the Knights barely do it and the Eels throw an incredible 40% more offloads than the next highest side. This unlocks the incredible talent of the Eels support players such as Gutherson, Dylan Brown and Waqa Blake, while the Knights superstar Kalyn Ponga has struggled to get involved in some games this year.

I haven’t focused on any individual players and combinations to be exploited because the Knights are pretty solid across the park. Their halves miss some tackles and their outside backs haven’t played a lot of football as combinations, but this one more than recent weeks feels like a game that Parramatta just need to play to their own strengths to emerge victorious in.

So what are those strengths? We’ve talked about offloads, and the left edge attack had a field day last week, but where the Eels are finding joy is in creating ways to catch teams short on the edge. Last week it was Clint Gutherson chiming into the line that created the space, but he only gets to do that because the Eels have been doing a good job of shifting the ball one way then coming straight back, utilising long passes and taking advantage of the commitment defenders must make to the decoy runs of players like Paulo and RCG. This is helped by skillful edge back rowers in Lane and Matterson, but watch the replay of any try where the Eels stroll over with what looks to be a four on two overlap: it is usually a combination of Gutherson creating an extra number and the defending halves being isolated because too many other defenders are caught covering the ruck. The passing game of Paulo and Nathan Brown just adds to the difficulty teams have defending the Eels, and we haven’t even talked about the ability of Blake, Sivo, Jennings and Ferguson to beat a man one-on-one.

A belting of the Cowboys was an ideal confidence booster for the side without Mitchell Moses, but it didn’t give the team a lot of practice in game control without the kicking game of their main man. Expect this to be a tighter contest and while Edrick Lee and his kick returns are absent, Kalyn Ponga can turn any run into a length of the field special off a poor kick and staggered chase. Mahoney and Gutherson will again step in to assist Brown and Field, but I would expect heavy kick pressure coming from the Newcastle defence to try and force bad clearances and unleash Ponga.

Dangers

The Knights pack had a happy day against the Eels last year at Newcastle, and both David Klemmer and Daniel Saifiti are better players than they were this time last year. Klemmer is the only Knight you have to be scared about offloading, while Saifiti just makes hard metres, breaking tackles and finding post contact gains. Both are top ten of NRL forwards in making those valued PCM, only a few spots ahead of Eels Lane, Paulo and Campbell-Gillard.

Ponga is the man Brad Arthur’s patented “take out the biggest threat” approach will be targeting. His biggest threat is speed and footwork, though his passing game is strong it mainly finishes movements started with his ability to get outside a defender. He can play both sides of the field and while there is little similarity between the players, Parramatta defending Clint Gutherson at training will prepare them for quick injections into the line to create overlaps. 

The Eels kick chase has been great for most of 2020, and a straight line against Ponga is crucial as he is more of a home run threat than a “get a set started strongly” threat with a darting run and quick play the ball. Parramatta will undoubtedly wrestle him backwards and dominate some tackles on the chase, but it only takes one slip for Ponga to make you pay. 

The entire Knights three quarter line does well with broken tackles and post contact metres, particularly Bradman Best and Hymel Hunt. Parramatta has rarely been on the back foot for extended periods of time this year so I’m not too concerned that we get steamrolled set after set by the big forwards working off good early work from the backs, but in what may end up a battle of fatigue, the Knights outside backs are making strong contributions running the ball, where the Eels have Blake Ferguson running in to set defensive lines and walking away from tackles like he is nursing broken ribs. That isn’t to say Fergo is doing bad work, it is just hard work.

Parramatta played Mitchell Pearce into an Origin jersey last year, as you would expect from a good halfback when they get as much room as the Knights pack provided him. He’s been solid this season and is the most dangerous half the Eels have faced since Luke Keary, who had a strong day against them. Pearce should also be capable of exploiting some of the weaknesses in our wingers turning ability, something we haven’t seen much of from other sides this year.

How it goes

I’m very nervous about this one. On paper it is a match the Eels should win, but football is played on grass and usually in front of rabid fans that could influence everything from Parramatta’s own mindset and confidence to their opposition’s resolve and the referee’s decision making. The Eels have had a better shake of penalties and officiating than they have in years; being a dominant side will do that, but against a strong, fired up Knights pack the Eels will need to give Sutton no reason to pull out the whistle or wave the arm.

The Eels have also been playing high intensity footy for nearly two months now. The injuries are racking up, the forwards are playing big minutes and while it was easy to forget during last week’s domination of the Cowboys, our halfback and best player isn’t on the field. I’m going to predict this game based on Parramatta continuing to play their best football, but a down week wouldn’t surprise me.

If they play their best though, Parramatta will be hard to beat. This week has been the football media’s awakening to just how good Junior Paulo is, a dual threat as a runner and creator. Those extras the Eels pack possess; the offloads of Matterson and Paulo, the edge passing and strength in one-on-one tackles of Lane, the passing of Brown, those will be the difference in what is otherwise an evenly matched forward pack battle. If it comes down to a forward needing to win a game, do you trust Lane, Matterson and Brown or would you prefer Fitzgibbon, Guerra and Ese’ese? The first three can all make something happen, Guerra and Ese’ese would only win you a game by falling on a kick deflection or crashing over from short range.

Pearce will be a major concern in a tight game. Easily the most experienced playmaker of both sides, if his kicking game is on point and the Eels struggle to ease the load on Dylan Brown, suddenly the field position battle swings and we’re looking at an attack that only needs one break to score. That plays into the hands of Ponga, Best, Hunt and Pearce, but I have faith after last week that Gutherson, Mahoney and even Field can step up when required. If that happens, Parramatta should break the away game hoodoo, and give the naysayers one less excuse when trying to dismiss the table topping Eels.

Prediction: Eels 24 Knights 16

Man of the Match: Junior Paulo