We’re at the point in the Parramatta season where the only person not looking ahead to 2027 is apparently Mitchell Moses. Whilst I do feel like a broken record in writing these previews most weeks, the sad truth of that is the repetition will continue until the Eels stop making the same mistakes. Every. Single. Game.
Now the Panthers are coming to town in what shapes as an “I’ll work from home on Friday” kind of day for anybody in a workplace west of Windsor Road. The days of the Eels being a real thorn in the side of the otherwise dominant Panthers (the Eels accounted for 5 of the 16 total losses Penrith suffered from 2020-2023) are long over, and the mountain men are on a five match winning streak against the Blue and Gold. They’re at very short odds to make it six.
Parramatta usually play the Panthers tough, but will that be enough? Let’s dig into the preview to find out.
Game Info
Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 7:50 PM AEST
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Weather: Mild, dry
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)
To come…
Sixties
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Brian Kelly 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Araz Nanva 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Ronald Volkman 22. Mitchell Moses 8. Sam Tuivaiti 9. Tallyn Da Silva 10. Jack Willliams 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Teancum Brown 17. Harrison Edwards 18. Joash Papalii 19. Toni Mataele. 22. Will Penisini.
The bye round hasn’t brought the casualty ward clearout we were hoping for, with Junior Paulo still sidelined and Will Penisini likely to return through Cup football. That leaves Luca Moretti’s return from concussion and Mitchell Moses coming back from Origin duty as the only additions to the Eels’ squad. Moses’ return pushes Jonah Pezet out of the squad entirely.
It looks like the days of the late swap are over, as Tallyn Da Silva both wears and starts in the 9 jersey, while Sam Tuivaiti is in the starting 8. Moretti pushes Toni Mataele to the extended bench and likely out of the regular forward rotation, with Teancum Brown and Harrison Edwards both preferred last time out. Charlie Guymer makes way from the extended bench, out for the rest of the year with a PCL injury.
Penrith Panthers
2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Paul Alamoti 4. Casey McLean 18. Izack Tago 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Freddy Lussick 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo. 14. Billy Scott 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Jack Cole 20. Jaxen Edgar. 22. Kalani Leuluai-Going.
The big out for Penrith is Dylan Edwards, with the current team list suggesting a triple shift to replace him with Tom Jenkins to fullback, Paul Alamoti to wing and Izack Tago coming into the side at centre. Young fullback Jaxen Edgar looms on the extended bench as another potential replacement, but if he is to play this is an elaborate smokescreen to protect a young fullback from a side coming third last. I imagine he will remain on the bench.
Also missing for the Panthers long term is Mitch Kenny; two starters on the sidelines represents an injury crisis for the ever-healthy Panthers. Freddy Lussick is the replacement there, and before you check, that’s the one Lussick that hasn’t played for Parramatta.
Broken Record
Don’t get me started on not getting a deal done to extend Dylan Walker
The long term trend of Parramatta making not just handling errors, but very basic mistakes in contact and skill errors like forward passes and intercepts, has crippled their season. The Eels aren’t the worst in the NRL for errors, but the two sides worse than them (Titans, Roosters) at least have a reputation for slinging the ball around. Parramatta just try the same long passing play at the edges that opposition defences have been sniffing out and rushing on for at least half of the season. There is no high risk, high reward footy here.
The Roosters loss was almost perfectly representative of the Eels in 2026. A gallant effort (though like Sixties has been saying on the Tip Sheet, effort is mandatory from first grade footballers) undone by basic errors, ultimately leading to a convincing loss where Parramatta were embarrassed in every key statistic; possession, completions, run metres, tackle breaks and most importantly, the scoreboard. 18 errors, including 8 by forwards, is sadly the norm for 2026.
If the Eels make errors like that against Penrith, the score will be 50+. The Panthers are the best side in rugby league at dominating possession, and that translates to a team that is averaging nearly 300 metres per game more than the Eels and scoring 11 more points per contest. Big efforts aren’t going to stifle that momentum. Penrith has built a dynasty on effort and they combine it with discipline and skill to dismantle opponents week after week, year after year. Trying hard won’t get it done without the skill to back it up.
Rough Path
We need one of ‘those’ games from Kautoga
One boost for the Eels is the absence of Dylan Edwards, who has a sneaky influence on Penrith’s results. Over the last three seasons he’s missed 14 games, with the Panthers winning only half of those contests. Edwards’ absence takes away one attacking threat that needs to be closely marked and cripples their yardage game at the back, plus any replacement will be a significant drop when it comes to positional defence. The Eels will be looking for chances to exploit that, perhaps with kicks in behind the middle targeting players like Da Silva and Walker.
The Penrith forward pack is a class above Parramatta, and that is where the battle will be won and lost. While the individuals in the Eels pack have their own strengths and most can be very damaging ball runners at their best, they just don’t stack up with the Panthers in physicality and core middle skills: running hard, making yards, making tackles. If the Eels can maintain a fair share of possession, we need to see some of those plus skills from guys like Kautoga, Williams and Tuilagi with offloads and good short ball line runs to break apart the Penrith defensive machine.
Holding serve with Penrith in a yardage battle will also limit the chances their backline gets to exploit myriad mismatches across the park. I like Jordan Samrani and Araz Nanva, but that is the least experienced centre combination in the NRL and has defended like it many times throughout the year. Brian Kelly has been an elite attacking footballer, but he’s not a natural winger (as we saw with his high ball effort last game) and we need to reduce the number of defensive decisions he makes. Ronald Volkman’s level of trust with his edge defenders is at used car salesman levels, and the normally stout Mitchell Moses hasn’t had a happy time on his edge either. Defending our line is a recipe for disaster against a well oiled Panthers, and the only way to avoid it is to stop making mistakes.
The Game
Flowers for Brian Kelly, who has been the Eels best for mine in season 2026
Stop making mistakes. If only it was that easy. It’s hard to even pinpoint why there are so many mistakes. It isn’t one particular category (though forward passes are far too common), the Eels are equally adept at dropping the ball in contact coming out of their own 20 as they are throwing a bad offload that goes to ground. It’s a collective need to improve their skills, to be 10% better across the park. It isn’t fatigue, though the start of the second half is usually when the errors roll, but this could just be the arrival of the avalanche that builds from the opening minutes.
The sad truth is that, lining the Eels and Panthers sides up against each other, you could make an argument to not take a single Eel ahead of their opposite number on talent. Maybe with a few positional swaps you can fit two or three of this Eels side into the Panthers 17. If you offered that swap the other way, it is only my loyalty that would keep maybe five of the current Eels squad in the team.
That says just as much about how good this Penrith team is as it does about Parramatta. The Eels have some rough diamonds still being polished like Iongi, Kautoga, Da Silva, Tuivaiti and Brown, some journeymen delivering performances ranging from “way better than expected” (Kelly, Walker) to “we’d replace him if there was anybody left” (Tuilagi) and a couple of genuine stars (Moses, Addo-Carr). Penrith has a forward pack full of rep players, the best halfback in the game and a backline teeming with young talent that has arrived first grade ready. It’s not a fair comparison.
Regardless of how it looks on paper, there’s a reason we play the games. Upsets are possible, bad days can meet good days and the unbelievable can happen. I don’t expect it on Thursday night at CommBank, but I can hope for it. Chances are we get the same old Eels and this one gets out of hand, but what if we don’t? That’s what we show up for.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Panthers 36 d Eels 10
Man of the Match: Nathan Cleary
Gol
Pretty fair and accurate preview Gol.
You are right about the starting 17’s in that position by position you would be lucky to take a single Eel. The same could have been said last time out against the Roosters. So yes, two weeks in a row, we have played clubs with 17 better players positionally than what we have. That I have Moretti coming into the 17 as “a big in”, tells you where this football club and our standards are at..
No one can actually think we will win, all you can have is hope. Their forwards should go straight through us, their physicality on the ground will slow down our attack, and our lack of speed on the edges doesn’t match up well at all.
So in looking for anything that gives us a slither of a chance, all i can come up with, is the Edwards out hurts the Panthers defensively. He missed 7 games last year (and granted 2 were with all Origin players missing), the Panthers conceded 26 points per game (and consistently, because it was never more than 30). His cover defense and positional play is significant. So even though we struggle offensively, maybe there is a window for an extra try or two. And if Jenkins goes to fullback and isn’t on a wing to chase high balls (where he would slaughter Kelly), thats a plus too.
But the speed of Blaze and Casey running at our right edge is terrifying. Moses hasn’t had a good year defensively – but we all know he is a good defensive half. And everyone who has replaced him as struggled as well. So it tells you the problem. We all know the problem, and the problem isn’t going away it seems in 2026. Add to that our centres are far from lightining and it is a little frightening.
I don’t care about the result. I don’t care about the referee or any deciisons he makes and thier impact. I want to see Big Sam take some big man respsonsibility and fight to get to his feet. I want to see Brown get good minutes against quality opponents running tough lines. Imagine what it would do to see him run over a big lug like Liam Martin?! That is worth more than 2 competition points. I want to see some attack that makes the Panthers defence think. I want to see an emotionally fired up Mitch Moses so that i can believe he still cares.
This is one of those nights where you will be best off convincing yourself it will be a blood bath to reduce the risk of disapointment, and creating a path to where you might walk away satisfied if we can muster an honourable defeat.
The real issue surfaces each week, the roster is not competitive when matched player agst player versus our opponents. Unfortunately, nothing much will change until recruitment is sorted and becomes as aggressive and competent as our rivals.
That Ryles and the coaching staff have actually won 6 games is testament to their ability to get the team UP and playing out pride and effort. We need the off season to surprise with activity not seen since Brian smith and later Bernie Gurr. Fingers and all digits crossed for a successful signing period, confident in that happening, about as close to wining the lottery unfortunately.
Your comment re the forwards is revealing. On those games when we’ve been most disappointing this year the forwards have been thrashed. My concern- for next year already we’ve lost de Belin, Walker, and Mataele (whose defence completion rate is probably the best of any of our forwards). The Bears are reported as competing hard for Junior. We have Su’A coming, who is quality but, if our recruiting efforts don’t improve there is a real danger that our forward stocks in 27 will be worse than in 26; I fear that releasing Mataele before thing up Junior could turn out to be really regrettable
I’ll have you know there are plenty of Parra fans East of Windsor Road 🙂
This has been a frustrating season for the Eels. We have seen a few glimpses of what can be, but silly errors are killing us every game. Ryles is obviously frustrated with this as well, which suggests the players are landing the right moves at training, but not delivering on game day. That’s a difficult thing to change, and comes down to mentality. It’s something that will need a particular focus during the offseason to ensure we don’t get a repeat of that next year.