It’s still too warm to be calling something a “danger game” or a “must-win”, but Sunday afternoon is shaping up as a very important statement on the 2026 Parramatta Eels season. The Dragons come to the golden west on the back of two competitive but ultimately losing performances against premiership heavyweights and they will be hungry to right the ship. St. George-Illawarra play tough and they rarely roll over against opposition they feel they can beat. You just know they sense a golden chance to break their duck on Sunday, and Parramatta needs to be prepared.
It is also the Eels home opener for 2026, with the club making a notable push to create more of a home fortress than years gone by. Parramatta’s early record at CommBank Stadium was strong but has faded in recent years, and hopefully the gameday team can encourage a more hostile atmosphere for opposing sides without resorting to some of the cheap and tacky methods of the past. I’m keen to see what they’re planning and am always making plenty of noise in the stands, at least until we fall behind by a try and I spend the rest of the game staring into the bottom of a cup quietly muttering to myself about curses. Yes, I’m part of the problem.
So get out there and support the team if you can. We’ve got a march to the ground, there are multicultural round festivities galore going on, and hopefully the Eels will be putting on a show. Let’s dig into the preview!
Game Info
Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 4:05PM, AEDT
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Chris Butler
Weather: Warm, probably showers
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)
Hopefully you cleaned up by taking an Eels win over the Broncos last week. We suggested there was value in the head to head and why complicate things by hitting the exotics.
This week I am hitting an exotic by selecting the pick your own total match points market.
I reckon it will be a high scoring game, based on past results and this year’s competition.
Over 60.5 total match points is returning $2.80. It’s a nice market for those reluctant to pick a winning team.
Happy, responsible punting.
Sixties
The Rivalry
The Dragons may be the Eels’ oldest rival, antagonising Parramatta through the late 70s. This culminated in the controversial grand final and replay in 1977. It is still a black mark on club administration that Rod Reddy was given a coaching role at the club after what he did in ‘77. Talk about not understanding your history.
The Dragons were a minor player in the Parramatta glory years of the 80s, noted for being victims of a Peter Sterling clinic at the opening of Parramatta Stadium in 1986. Over a decade later the two sides would meet to christen both Stadium Australia and the St George-Illawarra merger to kick off season 1999. Since then the rivalry has largely simmered, never having the local fire of the Bulldogs derby or the deep feeling of the Sea Eagles battles. Younger fans might hesitate to call the Dragons rivals at all.
There are still some spicy moments to look back on fondly. One of the great tries was scored against the Dragons back in 2005, as future Eels coach Trent Barrett took exception to kick pressure from PJ Marsh and started punching him in the back of the head as Eels fullback Wade McKinnon fielded the kick and sprinted past the melee to score. The 2009 preliminary final was one of the great fox jobs in rugby league history, as the Eels ran dead against the Dragons in the final round, losing 37-0 against the minor premiers knowing there would be a 1v8 rematch the following week. The Eels came out firing and sprung the upset 25-12 a week later.
The two teams also played a game that finished 8-1 back in 2006, a match remembered fondly only by Andrew Voss. The counterpart to that match was the freakish 44-40 victory for the Eels at the end of 2024, earning the Dragons the honour of the highest losing score in premiership history and taking several years off of my life.
State of the rivalry: cooling, but not forgotten
State of the rivalry: warm, simmering
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack Williams. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Jack De Belin 19. Joash Papalii. 20. Charlie Guymer 21. Brian Kelly 22. Luca Moretti.
Jason Ryles has shuffled the pack, accommodating J’maine Hopgood’s return from suspension by dropping Jack de Belin to the bench and moving Jack Williams to lock, with Kelma Tuilagi retaining his place in the second row after a huge attacking performance last week. De Belin’s presence in jersey 18 suggests he will be the forward to miss out if a standard bench is required, with 14 through 17 unchanged.
After a solid performance Jordan Samrani has been retained at centre with Will Penisini out for at least a month with a groin injury. Brian Kelly looms in the extended squad but has definitely fallen down the depth charts after his lacklustre round one effort. Charlie Guymer and Luca Moretti also loom in the extended squad, but the performances ahead of them suggest they’ll need injury or suspension to open an opportunity for them.
St. George-Illawarra
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Setu Tu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Daniel Atkinson 8. Emre Guler 9. Damien Cook 10. Toby Couchman 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Hamish Stewart. 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Josh Kerr 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Ryan Couchman 18. Hame Sele 19. Mathew Feagai. 20. Lyhkan King-Togia 21. Loko Pasifiki Tonga 22. Tyrell Sloan.
No changes to the Dragons starting side, though Hamish Stewart has been a late swap with Hame Sele in both prior matches. Whether that changes with Sele now in the 18 jersey, we’ll have to see. Jacob Liddle has pushed Sele into the “reserve numbers” with his return from injury, but is hardly a like-for-like swap.
I can’t make heads nor tails out of Shane Flanagan’s bench usage, but I suspect Liddle’s return will see Damien Cook rotate to lock instead of Sele. Both Josh Kerr and Blake Lawrie are big boppers with form on the board as “Eel-killers” in recent years, despite lacking form otherwise. The ideal situation for Flanagan may be to keep a fresh set of big men charging through the middle if he feels the Eels are weak there, but I feel confident in our playing group handling this bench.
Winning The Ones You Should
Jack Williams gets his third new position in three weeks.
Despite the NRL’s best efforts to spice things up with six again crackdowns, I remain confident 2026 will be an incredibly close season. In that spirit, the Eels can’t afford to drop home matches against teams around and below their level, such as the Dragons. St George-Illawarra (and to an extent before last year, Newcastle) made their bones as a “how are they still in finals contention” team by winning games exactly like this one. Take them lightly and they will beat you.
This match is as much a test of the Eels mentality as it is their football prowess. Parramatta fans will be all too familiar with the feeling of going into a game expecting a win and within 15 minutes realising the players had that attitude as well and all involved are in for a rude shock. I would expect the Eels to be well versed in this by now and be ready for the ambush, but I also expected the Eels to know what was coming from the Storm in round one, and look how that went. The only thing that will change years of ingrained behaviour and worry for Eels fans will be seeing Parramatta teams going out and getting the job done, time after time, until they earn our confidence. That has to start this weekend.
The 2026 Dragons are playing to type so far. They don’t make a lot of mistakes but they don’t set the world afire with their attacking brilliance either. It’s hard to know how the set restart crackdown is impacting them, as their first game was played over in Vegas before it was in effect, but we know the Eels are as vulnerable as any side in the NRL when defending repeat sets. A “keep it clean” approach might be enough for the Dragons ABC attack to post the points they need if the Eels are forced to defend back-to-back sets too often.
While the attack hasn’t quite been there, the Dragons present some significant threats on both edges. Luciano Leilua, Moses Suli and Christian Tuipulotu on the left edge could create some real problems for the defence, where the Samrani/Simonsson edge will need to have plenty of trust to avoid falling victim to flick offloads. Trust is easy to talk about but a lot tougher when you’ve got a man mountain charging down at your five eighth ten out. Limiting their chances in good ball is crucial.
On the other side you have the skill of Valentine Holmes, but I trust Josh Addo-Carr and Sean Russell to work well together on shutting him down. The spanner in the works will be Clint Gutherson, the King being able to chime in on both sides as a link man who will catch any cheating edge defender out with his cutout ball to the winger. I was critical of Isaiah Iongi’s choices in joining the line last week and leaving the Eels vulnerable to attacking kicks, and veterans like Gutherson and Cook will make Parramatta pay if Iongi spends too long as the 13th man in the line. Even maligned halves Flanagan and Atkinson will prove adept at kicks in behind the line if they have enough space. It is a massive watch both in this match and for the rest of the year, as teams study up more on Iongi and identify his weaknesses.
Room for Improvement
Samrani was impressive last week in the backline
It has been a funky opening fortnight for the Eels defence, first being run off their feet by a weight of extended possession against Melbourne then being exposed by the kicking game of the Broncos elite spine. This week presents a chance to get back to basics and let the system settle in against a side without a lot of exceptional options like a Harry Grant or Reece Walsh that would disrupt even the best defensive structure.
One area that will quickly be tested is the Eels ruck coverage. Damien Cook can still exploit a slow marker or lazy A defender behind the ruck and he will be licking his chops to get a chance after the historic success he’s found against Parramatta combined with what Harry Grant did in round one. The years suggest that ruck control just isn’t the Eels’ thing, season after season we hope for improvement in the wrestle and dominance of contact but it never seems to change. Once you are tarred by referee tip sheets as a “slow” ruck team the bar to change that perception is very high, and Parramatta hasn’t managed to meet it so far in 2026.
We’ll hopefully see combinations begin to settle after some disruptions in the opening rounds, especially the edge defenders working with the halves. Jonah Pezet was targeted by both the Storm and Broncos, and he can expect that all year long as just about every NRL side these days has at least one wrecking ball back rower eager to run at a little man. He needs to encourage the faith of his fellow defenders that he can make his tackles and not need assistance in contact, the cascade effect of an eventual overlap being how the majority of NRL tries are scored these days.
With the ball it would be nice to see a bit more direction in attack. When things were clicking last week we saw some plays that are very tough to defend, highlighted by the tries scored by Isaiah Iongi. It is the unstructured play that is lacking, where Junior Paulo catches the ball flat footed and shuffles it along the line or the halves run themselves into a cul-de-sac when their options aren’t lined up as expected. If those dead plays can be reduced, the structured attack will get more chances and prove very dangerous, especially with both edge options in Tuilagi and Kautoga proving very capable tackle busters and offloaders this year.
The Game
I just love the crazy eyes and will take any opportunity to use this picture
How this game will be won is unfortunately likely to come down to how the game is refereed. Getting a few repeat sets and some fatigue-building momentum in the middle of the park is far more important right now than nailing your structured attack and targeting opposing weak points. Any tired man is a weak point, and if you can make that man tired with one-out runs and a few arm waves from the referee, why try anything more adventurous?
Parramatta must improve how they handle those fatigue building moments. Don’t be afraid to give away back-to-back restarts if you cop one late in a count, get your line a chance to reset. Offend well enough that a penalty must be blown; knock a ball loose, strip it in a two man tackle, tangle the ruck so badly the play-the-ball can’t occur.
Restarts are a double edged sword. The good teams cheated to win back in 2020 and 2021, giving them away early in sets to allow their line a chance to reset and bury teams deep in their own half. We’ve seen some of that this year, but the Eels are well equipped to nullify some of that with the Moses kicking game. The other edge is what happens to lesser teams when their discipline fails; giving away a set restart late in a tackle count is basically conceding a try for all but the most resolute of defences. As Eye Test points out this week, about 17% of set restarts result in a try being scored, and 64% of all tries are coming after a set restart. They are the game this year.
Set restarts are an incredible bore to consider, but that’s the reality of football so far this year. How lenient the referee is, how well they hold a consistent ruling across both teams and across the length of the contest, those are bigger factors than whether Mitchell Moses can put Kitione Kautoga into some gaps or Dan Atkinson can kick in behind Isaiah Iongi. A lot of Iongi’s positional issues will stem from needing to sure up the line because restarts have fatigued the middles. Even when it isn’t the restarts, it’s the restarts.
That’s all a bit of a downer, but sometimes the truth sucks. All we can hope for is the two teams get a chance to show what they’ve got, that we get a football game instead of a one out procession down the field followed by amateur defensive mistakes made by exhausted players. It’s our home opener and I can’t tip against us, but just about anything could happen in this one.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Eels 22 d Dragons 18
Man of the Match: Kitione Kautoga
Gol
Thanks Gol, I think Parra will be up for this one and just need a solid 80 min game. The first 20 mins will be interesting- and if we hold Saints over this time I feel the second half albeit limiting errors we will have a 10-12 point win.
It’s our first game at home.
Oh, did someone say Klein is ref..? 😢
Don’t start me on the refs Milo!
I’d say you’ll still see hame Sele start. Last 2 weeks the dragons have needed to play feagai off the bench and the person to miss out is Blake Lawrie. I’d assume if all goes well they’ll use Liddle and the 3 forwards other then Lawrie on the bench.
Liddle is the danger
Roy Masters probably won’t agree with your Dragons/80’s viewpoint Gol, but he did write a good opinion piece on set restarts today. They just need more transparency which may deliver less inconsistency. At present they’re too random and mysterious and dictating the game flow.
He’s suggesting the ref call the players name or number and the actual offence(not ‘ruck nfringememt’j.
I had the same feeling about this game…St George will trouble us if we don’t start well and/or possession runs for them.
Set restarts! The scourge on our game
I don’t think we have anything to worry about here with the Saints, the officiating is another matter entirely
If we get pounded with 6 agains, again, then Ryles needs to say something about it-maybe even drop a blowtorch comment into the post game conversation . Sticky wouldn’t stand for it so why are we copping it sweet
I feel similarly
Eels need to stop doing so many shapes early on in games or being too agressive passing
We need to kick long and grind teams again like how we beat broncos late last season
Our smaller / more mobile pack is designed to keep you stronger & faster for longer minutes particularly in defence
The problem is we pass the ball around knock (or 6 agains) on and give teams endless possession
My feeling is Parramatta need to start playing more conservative in the first 20 minutes – wait until teams fatigue and the LINE SPEED decreases
Issue atm is we are spreading ball / running shape, teams are up in our faces early, forcing errors, WAIT until teams fatigue first
Our width game only seems to work once teams line speed is slowed down… hopefully the eels can put together a disciplined performance
That is how you beat dragons who are old, big, slow, you MUST hold the ball + kick long to drain this gas tanks during first half
I wanna see some high IQ footy from the eels this week, too amateur at times over the first 2 rounds in all honesty
MON: Iongi or Mitch Moses, both will be wanting to show up gutho, Moses will be trying to show up his mate / former captain as well
MOM* my man of match: Moses or Iongi
Need a big game from Moses, Muz.
Maybe we’ll see a slight modification, but I still expect Parra to attack. The issue was the IQ in the first game. We just threw our limited possession away.
True mate, I actually think in round 2 in later game, we played good at parts, even if bris “were off” it’s not a accident putting 40 on them we have obvious talent
Fourteen tries against us in two games, our D is what we have to address. Six agains are killing the game.
Seth I for one do not want to go back to the “Wrestle”. Having said that I do not know what the solution is.
As someone suggested, I think Roy Masters, maybe the solution is to identify the perpetrator or the crime or both. However we can’t just go back to the wrestle.
John, our game is already the most attritional you can play. It’s based on wearing down your opponent and taking advantage. You can bet the people who want it faster and faster have never played it. It’s not a Colosseum death sport , its a day at the footy.
Walker starts, Williams to the edge and Kelma a wrecking ball off the bench
What is the weather situation in Parramatta?
Should be dry. Warm and sticky out here.
There are reports up here of severe weather just south west and seems to be heading that way. Reminds of that second trial game
Hope it is all good
Beautiful day sunny and about 26 degrees
Hopgood bench
Williams prop
Walker starts 13
bit of a shuffle pre game
The weather did not help our very ordinary NSW CUP team. It is like watching a team devoid of a coach. Defence was hapless and attack pathetic. It completely lacked any depth. And I won’t start with the ref but I hope Klein is kinder.
When you’re playing a bigger football team it’s imperative your linespeed remains fast .
We’re waiting in defence.
Our linespeed in the trials gave me a lot of confidence but so far in 26 in a game situation it isn’t good enough with the smaller mobile pack we carry.
Attacking the try line I can’t understand why we persist with long balls which allow the defense time to react, shorten the passing in the attacking zone with body’s in motion .
Wait for the defence to commit to cement your options.
Frustrating game.
Didn’t like Samranis injury looked very much like a acl poor bloke devastating for him he was in for a solid year. Hopgood I think will spend a bit of time on the sidelines aswell his is touch and go but I can’t see it being short term.