Welcome to bounceback week, Eels fans, where we forget the nightmare of round one ever happened as Parramatta immediately right the ship and take out the defending premiers on their home turf. Easy, right?
Don’t fret, the rest of the preview won’t be blessed with such naive optimism. We are Eels fans after all, the last time optimism was well placed was when VHS was a hot new technology. The truth of things is that Parramatta started the year like they’d been locked in their off-season transport crate without air-holes drilled, and Jason Ryles is going to need to deliver a mighty resuscitation job this week just to compete with Brisbane.
The Broncos haven’t exactly leapt out of the blocks themselves, leaving too much to do after a horror first half in the World Club Challenge against Hull K.R, then failing to trouble the scorer against the Panthers last week. They’ve been sloppy with the ball, fraught off the field and generally just looking like they expect it to all happen for them. Will “she’ll be right, mate” be a valid strategy against what is hopefully a desperate Eels outfit? Let’s find out!
Game Info
Date: Thursday, March 12, 2026
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 8:00PM, AEDT
Referee: Wyatt Raymond
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Weather: Hot, dry
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)
Can we forget about last week? I was so embarrassed about my tip and my season preview that omitted the Storm from the top 8 that I awarded myself the “TCT Schooner of Reality” during the News podcast.
I can’t tip against my Eels, especially so early in the season, so let’s not complicate things.
Our team is at $3.80 in the head to head market, so I’ll be a believer and take that.
Happy, responsible punting.
Sixties
The Rivalry
Inspired by the weak as a wet tissue “rivalry” article spat out for the Eels and Storm a few weeks back, I’ve added a new section to the preview to highlight some of the real rivalry moments with our next opponent. If you want a history of judiciary charges between the two teams, ChatGPT can help you I’m sure.
The Eels and Broncos rivalry is unique for rugby league in that it is mostly flamed by on field contests instead of petty grudges between officials and convenient geography. Back in 1997 new Eels coach Brian Smith carried a chip on his shoulder for Wayne Bennett and the Broncos going back to his St George days (see Allan Langer and “St George can’t play”), leading to some spicy contests between the upstart Eels and the juggernaut Broncos in the late 90s and early 2000s. We don’t talk about what happened two weeks later, but the 1998 Major Semi victory was a masterclass in coaching as the Eels controlled tempo in a way that I look back on enviously. How nice it was when kicking to touch and slowing down the ruck was considered evolutionary strategy.
Over a three year, 30 game stretch from May 1999 to June 2001, the Eels were the only team to defeat Brisbane at home, doing so twice in that period including breaking a 23 game unbeaten streak. The two sides traded qualifier wins in 2000 and 2001, and more recently the Eels delivered a record breaking finals victory in 2019 to the tune of 58-0.
Every few years the Broncos and Eels turn out a classic, whether it was giving some Bloke one of his few career highlights with an after-the-siren matchwinner in 2008 or the “taken away then given back” victory last season. Those contests, plus some latent Super League / News Limited ill will and the natural arrogance of the Broncos all lead to a rivalry that, whilst not up there with the Eels’ traditional antagonists, is among the fieriest of the rest.
State of the rivalry: warm, simmering
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 20. Jordan Samrani 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Tallyn Da Silva 18. Charlie Guymer 19. Joash Papalii. 21. Brian Kelly.
A few changes for the Eels, who welcome back Josh Addo-Carr on a very short turnaround from a broken thumb. The Fox pushes Brian Kelly out of the side via a shift of Sean Russell to centre. Kelly has fallen in the backline pecking order and is the only unforced change to the team that was embarrassed by Melbourne, as a late withdrawal of Will Penisini has seen Jordan Samrani drafted into centre ahead of the Titans recruit.
The other change comes courtesy of J’maine Hopgood’s suspension, with Jack Williams shifting from back row and Kelma Tuilagi coming into the starting side. Charlie Guymer takes Tuilagi’s place on the extended bench. Matt Doorey is good to go after copping a knee knock last week.
Brisbane Broncos
1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Corey Jensen 9. Cory Paix 10. Payne Haas 11. Jack Gosiewski 12. Jordan Riki 13. Pat Carrigan. 14. Ben Hunt 15. Xavier Willison 16. Ben Talty 17. Aublix Tawha 18. Grant Anderson 19. Jaiyden Hunt. 20. Blake Mozer.
No changes for the Broncos, though a late switch last weekend saw Ezra Mam start from the bench and Ben Hunt take his place in the starting team. It wouldn’t be a terrible thing for the Eels if Madge chooses to do that again. Otherwise only Brendan Piakura is missing through injury, with Jack Gosiewski again named in his place.
Bad Starts
Bring on the beak!
While Brisbane avoided the ignominy of getting 50 put on them, much of that can be attributed to a Panthers attack that was happy to stay in first gear and let their defence do the hard work. The Broncos had a similar possession deficit, metres disparity, error rate and lopsided penalty count as the Eels did, but Penrith still only managed their points off of key Brisbane mistakes and were happy to grind away rather than chancing their arm. Some credit to the Broncos defence, I suppose, but Penrith really threw nothing at them.
The worry for Brisbane is that their high octane attack looked like it might not score against the Panthers defence if they were given another 80 minutes to try. In his two games in 2026 Reece Walsh has only intermittently recreated the magic of his finals run last year, and if the Broncos can’t rely on Reece or dig into their reserves of spark and “get hot” on demand, there isn’t much of a plan B to fall back on.
Sadly for the Eels, there is probably enough light in even the dullest spark their attack can muster to pierce the Parramatta tryline. Downhill running is all but assured for Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan, having watched vastly inferior forwards run riot on a tired Eels line last week. From there, Mam, Hunt and Walsh can work their magic individually, or combined with Reynolds they could put the talented Broncos backs into enough space to win one-on-one matchups. The 2026 Broncos might not be great at playing as a team, but as a collection of talented individuals wearing the same colours they’ve got plenty that could trouble an opponent if they show up as underdone as the Eels did last week.
I am placing blind faith in Parramatta’s bad start last week being attributed to fatigue, started by a sin-binning, exacerbated by a generous serving of repeat sets and exploited ruthlessly by the best rake in the game. Matt Doorey could only manage 18 minutes and Sam Tuivaiti couldn’t even get onto the field because of a strategic balls-up by Jason Ryles using his last replacement on ten minutes of Joash Papalii at fullback, leaving a tired, undercooked Eels pack to trudge wearily toward defeat.
A bit more luck on that front (and a lot more ball security, please) and maybe all of the issues go away. If Brisbane show up in similar form to their last two games then reducing the error count and taking our chances is likely to get the job done. If the Broncos improve and make them work for it, we’ll need to see improvement from Parramatta that is hard to fathom coming from one week of preparation.
Unfortunate Precedent
Kelma gets his first chance for the year.
While season 2026 started much like 2025 did, the Eels need to rebound better than they did last year. The group that lost to Melbourne in round 1 2025 was a mess, the defensive systems were being rejected like Stephen Kearney coaching job applications and the team was reeling from Mitchell Moses’ absence. Moses is back, the defensive structures have had a year to gel (though last week wasn’t a great example of that) and I’m going to assume that the first week wasn’t representative of the fitness and preparation levels of our pre-season.
Thus we shouldn’t expect a follow-up effort as dire as the loss to the Tigers last year, where ball control was again nightmarish and the attack totally ineffective. It won’t all click in a week, but I expect the Eels to play a more straightforward type of football, focused on completion and control. That starts with much improved play from both dummy halves, who struggled with service and decision making last week. If we get that right, suddenly Mitch Moses is a lot more composed and Jonah Pezet has the thinking time he needs to execute the attack. Brisbane has already flagged their willingness to attack Pezet on the edge; while I don’t think he’s a defensive liability by any means it will mean he needs good support from his edge defenders. That’ll be a new combination this week with two new centres and one new back rower, so let’s see how this club wide defensive philosophy holds up with interchangeable parts.
The Final Word
We’ll need a big bounceback game from Ryley.
There isn’t a lot to analyse here. I doubt we’ll see a game where both sides bring their best and it comes down to tactics, nuance and talent. The likely scenario is one of the two teams gets it together, the other doesn’t, and if that one team is the Eels, they’d better hope like heck that putting the Broncos behind the eight ball doesn’t light that spark and turn them into 2025’s comeback kings again. It’s strange that I may prefer to be ahead by 2 with ten to go rather than 12, but Brisbane are just that kind of team. You don’t want them throwing caution to the wind.
The Broncos feel like the team with the better chance to pull it together. Continuity in the roster, the confidence of winning a premiership, a far more talented group 1-17 and home field advantage. Maybe their issues this year are structural; they really do hate Madge, they’re tired, Payne Haas was the glue holding it all together and he’s going, Gehamat Shibasaki turns back into a pumpkin, and a stomping by the Eels is just another stone in the path leading us to the realisation that the 2026 Broncos aren’t good. I’m okay with that, as long as it means we leave Brisbane with two points. You only need to be the main character in September.
The Eels should get a fairer crack this week. The noise around six agains will either get a doubling down by the NRL or a quiet withdrawal. The latter should at least make for a more watchable spectacle. Then it is just a matter of holding onto the damn ball. I’m not tipping it, but it is definitely a chance. I can’t be writing off football in March, not this year. Bring us some joy Parramatta. Please.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Broncos 28 d Eels 16
Man of the Match: Reece Walsh
Gol
Pretty fair write up.
Unfortunately the NRL has issued a memo to the clubs indicating there will be even more ruck infringement penalties/six again’s. This doesn’t bode well the watch-ableness of the game, it also probably doesn’t help Parra if the game is going to be sped up.
In that memo it also indicated a crack down on players talking to ref’s. I am pretty sure Wyatt Raymond was the ref who copped a non stop barrage from Tedesco last week, so expect him to have been told not to tolerate any chat… something Mitch will have to be very careful of.
Play wise, both teams stunk last week, it was just the Eels played a Storm who played well, and the Broncos played a Panthers who didn’t play well.
The most likely way the game plays out is Haas strolling down the middle, Carrigan getting quick play the balls and Walsh and Mann strolling through a retreating and tiring Eels defence feeling the pain of countless six-again’s.
I’m probably not known for being optimistic, and i don’t think we will win, but lets try and find a glimmer of hope.
JAC in for Kelly. Obvious upgrade on both sides of the ball. Our defence improves significantly as does our attack, or at least our attacking threats. It is easily a +12 point improvement on last week, maybe +18.
Last week Joe Chan went after Pezet all night. This week it will be Jordan Riki. I know Riki has played 100 more games in the NRL and won a comp, but if both were on the market tomorrow i would take Chan. So maybe we get a bit of a let up there. Further, with the Broncos focusing on replicating what the Storm did to Pezet (and lets not forget Staggs propensity to give away an over zealous penalty), it will hopefully take the focus off the fact we have Kelma on the other side of the field – given his inability to tackle. Net +6 points
The Broncos don’t have Harry Grant and Adam Reynolds (2026 version) isn’t a patch on Jerome Hughes +14 points
Craig Bellamy is undefeated in 23 Rd 1 matches. Madge is 1-10 against the Eels. Lets call that +8 points.
So there you go, i won’t focus on the minus points and just say we are a 46 point better team than we were last week, and that should at least put us in the contest right?…. Right?
The first thing the Eels must do is fix their first up contact defensively, get numbers in the tackle particularly early in the set to ensure we control field position and control momentum .
Take the referee out of the game as much as possible if we don’t have field position or momentum kick the ball dead, you give up a 7 tackle set but you also set the defensive line and take Walsh at full speed out of the equation.
Last week we struggled to wrestle back and hold an advantage, force set pieces slows the game down so does feigning injury .
Gamesmanship has never been so important, make it work to your advantage.
We play fast but limit Brisbanes ability to do just that which means kicking early and deep ensuring Paas has to run 40 metres to get back on side not doing a hit up until tackle 4/5.
Broncos are very suspect defensively on the edge of the ruck particularly to changes of direction Kautogas a threat use Iongi in and around him to create confusion.
The Broncos are the perfect team for Moses to run the ball as their edges slide off too fast religiously, the show and go really hurts them.
Good luck Eels
Great observations Bup. Expecting the Eels to reverse last week’s performance is a big ask.
However it’s possible, I would be happy with a 8 point score line either way and a return to the defence effort from the back end of 2025. Maybe JAC can help in that regard.
As I was saying the Broncos are ordinary defensively on the edge of the ruck, probably more putrid.
Once again first up contacts not there, game management was poor but a wins a win.
Pezet will probably get the plaudits for the try and try assists but without Dylan Walker we get no where near winning that game of football.
Lots to work on , we need to muddle through next week , scrape a win and turn it on against the Panthers .
if we are on the bad side of the refs call tonight, big trouble, mid 30 degree day in Brisbane today, humid night, could spell bi trouble tonight, not sure our fitness levels are there this year,
Stop worrying about refs calls because the way we’re playing, there is absolutely zero excuses.
I can’t say I’m disappointed that we’ve missed out on Barnett. The sort of money we’d have been paying him at 35 would have been a massive gamble. Of course it’s frustrating that, clearly, we don’t currently have sufficient elite players realistically to challenge for the title while several of the types of players we lack once were with us (or some of our junior clubs) and now are playing for others.
I agree. Apparently we offered 2 years not 3 but at any rate he was always going to the Broncos.
I wish people will lay off the criticism of the club regarding signings. What I have seen is that we arnt just running around throwing money at players.
Barnett has been an average footballer for most of his career and it’s only been the last couple of years that he has flourished and suddenly he’s a superstar !
INVEST IN YOUTH !! We have more than enough older players in the side.
I’d rather us try and rehab Jordan Miller, the kid we got from the Tigers.
He could be absolutely anything if we can get him under control.
If we do then suddenly he will be the next superstar!
I trust the club and the coach.
Agree.
Spark, media reported that we sent a revised offer of $850,000 a season for three years plus letting Warriors have Samrani. I’m not one who reckons I know more about football than the coaching staff but it struck me that that would have been the sort of deal you’d live to regret. If we’re going to be splashing around millions in a long term deal for a prop we should be aiming to bring Stefano back in 2028 while holding onto the promising young men already in the club – and actually getting them onto the field in NRL.
Agree. We have a couple of talented forwards coming on. Get them ready for 2027.
Fifty plus points kills our GF dream for 2026. Don’t believe it – reflect back on the best team last year who played a reserve grade team with their last game and had fifty plus out on them. It killed their momentum and they went out of the semis in straight sets.
I think the boys will go well tonight and I will be there but, Gol is correct the Broncos individually are just too good. I hope it’s close and it will boost their confidence if it goes down to the wire.
You believe everything the media says???..
What do you mean?
Get back to the absolute basics. We keep a good share of ball and complete we’ll be right in it but if we complete under 70% probably turn the tv off.
First half a game of contrast. Broncos on top 20 points to six with all the ball after 20 minutes Parra had twenty one percent possession. Then the tide turns and with decent possession we get some points to be in front. Parra had possession for less than 10 minutes. We have a chance if they hang on to the ball. Parra looked really flat the first fifteen minutes. There is a few diaspora Eel fans here.
The eels need a really decent game here or they will end up off to a shocking season
I’m not confident we can beat them
Our forwards look old
Our ball handling looks amateur
I’m wondering if having an extra forward on our bench instead of Da Silva would be more effective?
Use Morreti as another forward on the bench
Then use Hopgood (when he returns) to give Ryley smith a rest during a game
We do not have the middle forwards to hold up when playing them big minutes
But if you used: Tuivaiti, Moretti, Walker, Doorey on your bench?
Suddenly our middle rotation looks pretty good IMO
Kelma is so bloody dog shit. I don’t get how the fans and coaches kid themselves each year into playing him. Penalty from Kelma, no kick pressure on Reynolds from Kelma then falls over in defence for Walsh to score.
Now he has given away a 6 again for broncos to go down field and score
We will get pumped
Katonga is almost as bad defensively – both plant feet and get burnt with ease on block shapes
Katonga error and then wrong read to turn in to let hass straight through. Every team knows both our back rowers are defensively inept
Another try largely because of Kelma not getting back to marker and allowing a mam line break – two plays later katoni scores. Lazy lazy players in this team
One from two against last year’s grnd finalists? We’ll take it. There were some massive performances out there. Jack De Belin must surely have silenced a few.
De Belin is there for defence. He is one of the only eels players that bends their back and drives in tackles so I don’t get the pile on. Sure he is average in attack but that’s not his role.
I’m more concerned with how bad our back rowers are in defence. It turns out broncos back rowers are even worse.
Oh yeah,
Absolute “dog shit” alright!
What a great judge you are.
Kelma was dog shit defence. Attacking highlights shouldn’t lead to amnesia. There’s a good reason teams pick out our back rowers and score try’s for fun. It just so happened broncos were also piss weak at back row.
Brisbane playing perfectly to the rules, completing 100%…It all started with Payne Haas allowed to walk off the mark when our marker was standing right in front of him…we’ve gotten 1 6 Again and on the first tackle. Hard to beat the premiers this way.oops there’s our 2nd at the 30 minute mark and we’ve scored!!
WHAT A WIN! WOW
AND… we played well below what we can play.