It’s not shaping up to be an all time great battle in one of the fiercest rivalries in the NRL, but there is always some spice to a Parramatta v Manly match, even on a cold wet night during Origin season. Mitchell Moses, Zac Lomax and Daly Cherry-Evans may be missing, but between revenge games (Jake Arthur, Nathan Brown, Kelma Tuilagi), State of Origin snub responses (Turbo, Olakau’atu) and the need to prove wrong the doubters across the rugby league world (Dylan Brown) there is plenty of spice to sprinkle over this contest.

The form guide won’t mean a lot in this one. Aside from the Origin impacts, this won’t just be a wet track, it will be an “all meets cancelled, round up two of every animal” level splash-fest. To say it has rained in Sydney this week is a bigger understatement than saying Waqa Blake dropped “one or two” balls in his time. It’s no north-east NSW (stay safe in the floods everybody), but it is sopping, miserable and very, very damp in the rising west.

So who will adapt to the conditions and overcome their absences? Let’s dig into the preview!

Game Info

Date: Friday, May 23, 2025
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Liam Kennedy
Bunker: Grant Atkins
Weather: Cold, very wet
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Gol Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

I’m barely tipping at 50% this year and my Supercoach team is ranked about 70,000th, so I’m not the one to be giving punting advice. That won’t stop me though. Given the conditions, the under 37.5 at $3.10 feels like a decent bet, though a miserable one to cheer on all night.

My head also says a Haumole Olakau’atu any time try at $2.75 is a decent bet if you can stomach going against the Eels. I couldn’t do it, but if you can, that’s a keeper.

But as always, keep it fun.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Gol

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Jordan Samrani 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Ryan Matterson 17. Matt Doorey. 18. Joash Papalii 21. Ronald Volkman.

Origin duty only accounts for half of the changes to the Parramatta side, with Dean Hawkins deputising for Mitchell Moses at halfback while Jordan Samrani moves into the centres and pushes Sean Russell out to the wing for Zac Lomax. Hawkins was solid in his stint replacing Moses previously, and hopefully with a more confident Dylan Brown and the help of Dylan Walker, he’ll be a capable replacement.

Kelma Tuilagi comes back into the second row on his return from suspension, with Jack Williams returning to the middle and Luca Moretti the bench. Late withdrawal last week Matt Doorey comes onto the bench for Toni Mataele.

There is one rumour that won’t quit, that Joash Papalii is set to make his debut this weekend. Currently 18th man, he could take a role on the wing and let Jordan Samrani return to his bench impact forward role, or perhaps there is a shift in the pack and he plays the bench utility. In that scenario, J’maine Hopgood moving to the middle rotation off the bench and Dylan Walker starting at lock feels the most likely scenario, with Doorey or Matterson dropping from the bench. Or everybody could be wrong and the side runs out as named.

Manly Sea Eagles

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Jake Arthur 8. Ethan Bullemor 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jazz Tevaga. 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Nathan Brown 17. Matthew Lodge. 18. Clayton Faulalo 22. Caleb Navale.

Daly Cherry-Evans is the only Origin representative in this Manly side, his place at halfback will be taken by former Eel Jake Arthur. While a revenge game is always a possibility, he hasn’t played first grade since 2023 and this is a big ask for his return match. His form in NSW Cup is as good as it has ever been, but he’s always sat in that “too good for Cup, not good enough for firsts” limbo. Tonight we’ll find out if that has changed.

Otherwise, Manly are dealing with their own injury crisis in the middle, with Sipley, Paseka, Aloiai and Jake Trbojevic all unavailable this week. Considering those absences their pack doesn’t look too bad, Olakau’atu will have spent the week in Origin camp and will be smarting, while Ethan Bullemor has been in decent form and Jazz Tevaga has both played a solid hand for Manly and stayed healthy.

Slug It Out

Big shoes to fill for Dean this week.

Traditionally a wet track will take the speed out of the game, and for the Eels against the Sea Eagles that is a good result. While recruitment has seen Parramatta stock up on speed compared to the sluggish sides of days gone, few can compete with the Sea Eagles for pure pace with Saab, Tom Trbojvic, Koula and Garrick. While everybody is impacted equally by the weather, spreading the ball early is going to be especially risky, and footwork is going to be hard to execute at pace. A massive advantage for Manly will be blunted by these conditions.

Against the Dolphins a few weeks back, the Eels experienced similar conditions and made an absolute mess of it. They were slipping over like they put the wrong studs in their boots, played laterally instead of directly and were regularly buried in their own half as a reward. In boggy conditions I’d expect we can’t even attempt to spread the ball, so this will become a war of attrition won on the ability to earn field position, then convert field position. Neither have been strong points of the Eels this year.

While Manly doesn’t mind giving away a penalty, they are mid pack in terms of set restarts conceded and are among the better sides in the league for error rate. They have some hard runners in the pack that will be tough to tackle in greasy conditions. Offloads aren’t a major part of their game, but spreading the ball is, so if conditions stop them from trying to attack the seams early in the count then there are chances for the Eels to bury them in their own half and start to win the arm wrestle.

What the Eels can’t do again is what they did against the Dolphins. Some sets started badly and there was no circuit breaker available. No impact forward that could skittle the line, nobody with footwork to make the first man miss. After being buried for barely any gain on the first two runs, it was another one out scoot from a back for minimal gain. Someone in the pack needs to stand up and make a difference on these carries. Without Lomax and Simonsson we are short on effective yardage runners in the backs, so I am hoping players like Paulo, Kautoga and Tuilagi are willing to roll the sleeves up and get angry.

Finding Points

A good game from Dylan Walker is crucial to any Eels chances

While the Eels attack wasn’t pretty without Mitch Moses, things looked a lot better with Dean Hawkins in command after the first few rounds. A more traditional half, he’s got a solid kicking game (though some of his mistakes with long kicks absolutely can’t be repeated in these conditions) and can move a team around the park. If he can find space for Tuilagi, Kautoga and Williams on the edge, there will be chances for those three to beat their man one-on-one, while Dylan Walker will also be able to unlock some space for those wide runners. In the wet it will be a risk to play too close to the line, but Jack Williams has proven he can beat a man with footwork, while Tuilagi runs a good attacking line. There will be chances there

It will be interesting to see how Dylan Brown reacts to the absence of Moses. A few weeks with the senior half has seen his game improve and his confidence restored, but he can’t fall back into the trap of catch and run that defined his early season. His attacking kicking game will be important in good field position, but he also just needs to occasionally grab the game by the neck and impose his will on it. That means directing his outside men and creating plays, not just taking the line on and hoping somebody will be there with him the few times he breaks through.

There’s also a bit more individual spark in the side now. Josh Addo-Carr is scoring at a healthy clip, while Jordan Samrani is going to prove a handful out wide if given room. I want to see more after the Jack Williams breakout game last weekend, while Kelma had a good attacking outing before his suspension and Kautoga has improved with the ball in the last couple of weeks. Manly has been a decent but hardly elite defensive unit this year, there should be chances if we can hold onto the ball and put ourselves in a good position.

The Game

Let’s hope a revenge game for the ages is in the works.

I’m not sure the wet conditions, absence of Daly Cherry-Evans and continued hobblement of Tom Trbojevic are enough to tip the scales in Parramatta’s favour after taking into account the lack of Moses and Lomax. It provides opportunities if the Eels are good enough, but being good enough has been a bit of a problem for this team all year long.

A lot will need to go right. Forwards having big games, the halves standing up, the team as a whole showing good discipline and tight handling. In wet conditions every error has an exponential effect, and while Parramatta has improved structurally as a defensive side, there have been far too many individual errors that undo the good work. I think we can do it, but we will have to be much closer to perfect than the Sea Eagles will be, and that is in very tricky conditions.

I’m not game enough to tip it, but I think the Eels will compete here. With mismatches in bye rounds the ladder is going to be all over the shop for a month or two, but with four teams on three wins and three more on four wins, sneaking an unexpected victory here and there is going to offer some valuable breathing space. Manly haven’t exactly been a model of consistency this year, so an off night is a decent chance. Let’s hope that whiff of an upset becomes an overpowering stench come tonight.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Sea Eagles 16 d Eels 10

Man of the Match: Haumole Olakau’atu

Gol

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