It is everyone’s dream to be the best version of yourself when bumping into your ex for the first time since the breakup, but sometimes it just doesn’t happen for you. With Clint Gutherson dropping by to pick his hair ties and strapping tape, the Eels are covered in Cheeto dust and frantically reaching through the pizza boxes to find the remote and hide the fact we’re watching the 1986 grand final DVD on repeat. Things could be going better.

While the last two rounds have improved to “watchable”, up from the “how are the Giants looking this year?” level of the first two weeks, there is still a long way to go on what started as a slight Parramatta renovation job and has turned into a knockdown rebuild with a cleansing ceremony required over the cleared land. Remember when talking heads would say Jason Ryles is inheriting a good roster and a great role? Feels like a lifetime ago.

Anyway, we’ve got a Saturday afternoon special against our original rivals, and while Clint Gutherson will never reach Rod Reddy levels in the minds of Parramatta fans, it’d be nice to give the former captain a taste of our best football and leave him thinking “why did I ever leave?”. Can we do it? Let’s find out in the preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 3:00PM AEDT
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Bunker: Kasey Badger
Weather: Warm, dry, bit of wind
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Anybody following last week’s tips cleaned up, especially if you put it in a same game multi. I suggested taking the Eels with 17.5 points start and also total match points of 39.5 points or less. The latter paid $6 on its own.

This week I’m keeping it simple.

I firmly believe that the Eels can register their first victory. In the head to head market they are paying $2.45. That looks good enough.

But as always, keep it fun.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 16. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Gideon Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Luca Moretti 16. Sam Tuivaiti 17. Dan Keir. 18. Joash Papalii 19. Charlie Guymer

One big change to the starting lineup, with Ryley Smith earning the nine jersey with Joey Lussick out injured. Given new recruit Dylan Walker makes his debut in the 14, there is every chance Ryley will be asked to play a full 80. We’ve looked out best with Smith on the field this year, and I’m excited to see how he goes in a starting opportunity.

Luca Moretti also makes his debut for the season, coming onto the bench for Charlie Guymer. His energy should inject some spark into a Parramatta pack that hasn’t exactly set the world ablaze so far this year.

St George Illawarra Dragons

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Tyrell Sloan 3. Moses Suli 4. Valentine Holmes 5. Christian Tuipulotu 6. Kyle Flanagan 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Toby Couchman 9. Damien Cook 10. David Klemmer 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin. 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Hamish Stewart 17. Dylan Egan. 20. Sione Finau 19. Raymond Faitala-Mariner.

For about the last decade I’ve tried to watch as little Dragons football as possible, as an act of self care, and it has usually worked out for me. So I have very little idea of whether this is their best lineup or not. David Klemmer has worked his way into a start after being recruited from the Tigers reserve grade, while Blake Lawrie comes off the bench. He played his best game of first grade against us a couple of years ago. Making him look a world beater should have been a sign.

Lacking Attack

Congratulations on the start, Ryley Smith!

Four games isn’t a particularly large sample to work with, but this Parramatta team is shaping up as one of the more impotent attacking units we’ve seen in recent NRL history. There have been some bad scoring sides in recent years, just about every Bulldogs team for the last decade for a start, but when you defend like we do, 12 points a game isn’t going to cut it.

The Eels are lacking creativity and strike power, predictable in their shifts, uninspired in their attacking kicks and have no clue how to get the most out of individual talents. The soft hands from Junior Paulo to Joe Ofahengaue last week was one of the rare moments we used the skills of our forwards, but for the most part they shovel the ball along the line for an outside back to be easily covered by the sliding defence.

The play outside of the red zone is somehow even more uninspired. The backs take a few runs of moderate impact, then a forward or two lumbers into the line before a clearing kick. With two speedsters in the side in Lomax and Addo-Carr, plus the strong footwork of Isaiah Iongi and the running power of Dylan Brown, you’d hope we’d be willing to spread the ball a bit earlier and try something on. Tries are being scored from outside the attacking area at a higher frequency than ever, but for the Eels the only way that will happen is if there is a critical defensive failure in front of them, and those are mostly saved for when they don’t have the ball.

It may be fear of giving up field position, which, seeing some of the arm grabbing and decision making near the line, I don’t blame them for being worried about. Sixties made a great point post-game last week, that the Eels may be playing field position but their conservative play puts no fatigue in their opponents. As somebody with a one year old who recently poured coffee beans into a bowl of cereal, I can vouch for the impact fatigue has on decision making. This pedestrian attack isn’t tiring out the opposing defence, and the limited ball movement requires few tough decisions to cover. The Eels can be as fit as they like (and the new body shapes really aren’t helping us this year) but if your opponent doesn’t get tired, where is the advantage?

Toughing it Out

Just make more than five runs, please!

The Dragons will be on a high after beating the short-handed Storm last week, but before that upset they were showing a great ability to stay tight in a game but not get it done. Against the Bulldogs they got well back and steamed home too late, against the Rabbitohs they took a lead then showed no composure as it got chased down. That’s what will happen when you field a reserve grade halves combination.

Clint Gutherson has seamlessly blended into the Dragons attack, playmaking and putting on tries in a way that the Eels really could use right now. I suppose he’s had plenty of experience stepping up when the halves go missing as he played so many games without Mitch Moses over the last couple of years. The Eels should know exactly how to exploit him, but whether they can do it is another matter. Short grubbers behind the line are his kryptonite, as are early kicks to take advantage of his tendency to get up into the defensive line. There’s more than enough tape of his being exploited against us in those ways, hopefully Jason Ryles has been in the film room studying up, and hopefully the team actually listens and takes to his coaching on it, which, watching the four weeks of footy so far, is no guarantee.

Damien Cook and Luciano Leilua are noted Eel-killers. Cook loves the slow and lazy defence we regularly show behind the ruck, he’ll be scooting out all day long when he sees Shaun Lane in the previous tackle. Leilua can find an error but for some reason loves to save his hardest running for against the Blue and Gold. He never looks fit, but that won’t stop him with the ball in hand.

The Game

Will hasn’t looked himself so far this year

All eyes will be on Dylan Walker, who has been recruited to spark an Eels pack that hasn’t offered much of anything this year. J’maine Hopgood hasn’t really had it this year in terms of attacking threat, and this signing may turn him into a pure tackle-bot for the near term, which we do need a bit of. The edges need to do more with the ball, and if the structure remains the same as last week, Kautoga needs to give Dean Hawkins a bit more help by not growing stone boots and committing to every inside runner he sees.

I’ve given up expecting more from Dylan Brown, we’ve talked for years about his need to step up when the dominant half and it has happened maybe two or three times in five seasons. It’s just not his go. Better to hope for more from some of the underperformers: Junior Paulo needs another game like he had against the Bulldogs, Will Penisini needs improvement and if Joe O played like he taunted he’d be needing a home extension to hold all of his representative jerseys.

I’m going to be bold and predict that the duck is broken this week. Maybe I’m just being the change I want to see, maybe I just haven’t had enough sleep again and am making poor decisions under fatigue. Either way, I’m going in with hope. Let’s see how that turns out.

Prediction: Eels 24 d Dragons 18

Man of the Match: Isaiah Iongi

Gol

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