Here we go again. It’s Manly. It’s Parra. It’s Brookvale. It’s wet. It could be very ugly. Despite the bounce back in effort shown by the Eels last week, the high flying Sea Eagles on their home track is one of the worst matchups that could follow for a fragile Parramatta side still finding its feet in season 2025. They’re fast, they throw the ball around and they present questions that even the much better Parramatta sides of recent years have struggled to answer at times.
That’s not to say we’re without hope. Manly are notoriously inconsistent in their efforts, and while the club likes to claim it thrives on turmoil and a siege mentality, let’s see if that holds true when the turmoil comes from within as yet another Daly Cherry-Evans contract saga grips the club. It’s been a while, and boy have I missed it. Nothing warms the soul like Manly crumbling from within.
A salute (and some serious questions about your sanity) to those travelling out to Brookvale today for this one. May your spot on the hill not be a drainage path and may the effort put forth by the Eels be enough for you to leave with your sopping head held high. It has been a round of upsets thus far, can Parramatta pull out another one? Let’s look at the preview!
Game Info
Date: Sunday, March 30, 2025
Venue: Brookvale Oval, Brookvale
Kick-off: 4:05PM AEDT
Referee: Todd Smith
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Weather: Cool, wet
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo
Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)
This is not an easy season to be a Parra supporter with punting tips. Probably the best advice that I can give is to keep your money in your pocket.
Last week I expected a high scoring game against the Dogs. What we saw was Parra’s best effort for the season, especially against the only undefeated team, and a marked overall improvement in defence, albeit with a couple of disappointing moments.
However, we did see the team continue to struggle in attack. There’s just no cohesion in possession.
This week, the rain is likely to be a factor and the more it rains the better as far as I’m concerned. The Jersey Flegg match has already been postponed. As I write this, the odds around points looks tempting.
The Eels are paying $1.90 receiving 17.5 points start. In the dry, this might be a massive risk. In what is likely to be very wet conditions, points could be at a premium. That will be my suggestion.
If you want to look for something at higher odds, under 39.5 total match points is offering an incredible $6. Might be worth a look. I reckon those numbers won’t last for long.
But as always, keep it fun.
Happy, responsible punting everyone.
Sixties
Teams
Parramatta Eels
1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Zac Lomax 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dylan Brown 7. Dean Hawkins 16. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Gideon Kautoga 13. J’maine Hopgood. 14. Ryley Smith 17. Dan Keir 18. Sam Tuivaiti 19. Charlie Guymer. 20. Joash Papalii 22. Jordan Samrani.
Sean Russell comes in for Jordan Samrani, who we think is no longer eligible for his exemption to play first grade but given the communication around those rules and where they are applied is as clear as Peter V’landys trying to pronounce “Josh Aloiai”, who really knows. Russell had a good run in Cup last week and continues to live in that purgatory of being too good for that grade but not good enough for a regular first grade spot.
Jack Williams is out for six weeks after surgery, which will see Joe Ofahengaue promoted to the starting side and Sam Tuivaiti earning a reprieve from his brief demotion to 18th man. Whether that was for resting reasons or form reasons we may not know. Matt Doorey has also been dropped from the squad, giving Charlie Guymer a recall, and Dan Keir was originally the man to come in for Tuivaiti.
If, back in the glorious days of hope we called the preseason, you drew up a bench of Ryley Smith, Dan Keir, Sam Tuivaiti and Charlie Guymer, you were probably naming a NSW Cup team. Such is life with the 2025 Parramatta Eels.
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Ben Trbojevic 13. Jake Trbojevic. 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown. 18. Clayton Faulalo 20. Toafofoa Sipley.
Taniela Paseka is out for most of the year with injury, promoting Josh Aloiai to the starting side. He’d better hope the sun doesn’t come through after these storms and create a rainbow over the peninsula. Lachlan Croker remains sidelined, with new recruit Jazz Tevaga deputising at hooker. Former Eel Nathan Brown is on the bench for his first appearance of the year. Can’t wait for him to shoot out of the line a couple of times to get on the highlight reel, then revert back to the six metre hitup machine we all know.
Greasy Fast Speed
This is the kind of game we signed you for, Josh
One of the mandates coming from new coach Jason Ryles was to bring some speed to the Eels squad. Zac Lomax and Josh Addo-Carr certainly bring that to the side, and the big test for this injection of pace into the club is the lightning quick Manly backline. Jason Saab is the highlight man, but across the backline just about every player has burned the Eels defence with pace at some point in the recent past. The conditions may not suit the early shift, but Manly would be silly not to try it anyway given the success they’ve found with it in recent years.
Defensively the counter is both the pace to scramble and shut down half breaks, something that was lacking in recent years, and a strong defensive line that makes decent decisions and avoids giving good looks to their opposites. That might be more of a problem, as while this backline is looking a lot closer to the one that would have practiced in the blue jerseys in preseason, there are still a lot of combinations on the inside of that defensive line that are still learning names and tendencies.
The good news is that Tom Trbojevic might just be a bit raw after a week off which a hamstring “niggle”, and if Daly Cherry-Evans is anything like Dylan Brown when it comes to a contract negotiation then his head might not be where it needs to be either. A hobbled Tom and Luke Brooks being forced to lead the team around would make this a lot easier a task. Add in a heavy track and either it neutralises some of the speed advantage, or more Eels defenders fall over than we’ve seen even over the last few weeks. The long studs better be out for this one.
Trench Warfare
Hope you’ve been on tackling practice this week Dean, because you’ll be getting some running this week.
Given the Panthers are leaking nearly 30 points a game this year, it might not be the best time to be adapting their style, but Jason Ryles is definitely demanding a more “backs for the yardage” style. Zac Lomax put together 300 of the hard yards last week, while some of our forwards barely touched the ball in the first half. In one way it worked, the Eels dominated field position. On the other hand, they rarely forced errors or chanced their way to repeat sets, meaning a lot of the attack was coming from the no mans land of about 40 metres out, leading to a lot of high kicks, good chases but unexceptional outcomes.
Parramatta need some more mid range attack, and that comes from a hard charge of a forward in the middle of the count, getting an offload or a quick play the ball away and suddenly we can unleash Lomax, Addo-Carr or even Dylan Brown at a retreating line. Will Penisini can do plenty with room to move as well. It’s one thing to keep the forwards fresh for defence, but yardage rucking only takes the attacking horse to water, you need a big forward powering through the defence to start drinking in those points.
On that front, Junior Paulo was showing dangerous signs last week and we need to see more of that. J’maine Hopgood needs to lift in that regard as well, but I’d be just as happy to see him knock the mistakes out of his game first. Gideon Kautoga has apparently got a killer offload, but all I’ve seen from him so far in grade is tackling. Get on the edge and have a charge mate. Same goes for Shaun Lane, we know what he can do, just get him some space instead of throwing him hospital balls at close range.
On the other side, Haumole Olakau’atu has never met a halfback he won’t run at, so reducing the opportunities for the Sea Eagles in good attacking position is critical. Dean Hawkins will need good protection from his inside defender, which looks like it will be Kautoga. Parramatta has been way too passive in on-line defence this year and Manly has some players that will just eat that up.
The Game
What a machine!
In belting the Cowboys and Raiders at home so far this year, Manly has enjoyed a ridiculous 60:40 possession split. With the attacking weapons they have, they’ll win plenty of games in a canter with that. The Raiders dropped their way to a hiding, the Cowboys ill-discipline was their undoing. You won’t get calls going your way at Brookvale, but you can’t be giving easy opportunities for the Manly side with cheap penalties. Parramatta need to improve on both fronts there, though last week was a massive improvement on the first two.
Then there is just the slight problem of a complete inability to score points. Averaging 10.5 points a game this year is some pitiful areas for a team that, even when they’ve been bad in recent years, has usually found ways to score. Clint Gutherson on the cutout to Maika Sivo was a win button even in the most dire of circumstances, and the 2025 Eels need to find their own pet plays to get the most out of the attacking weapons. Isaiah Iongi needs to be given some space to roam, get Josh Addo-Carr and Zac Lomax on the front foot instead of rucking it out. Give me 150 metres from Lomax where 50 come from getting him into space over 300 hard yards any day.
If the Eels can show some discipline, if Dylan Brown can get out of his own head and play some footy, and the forwards can balance that defensive effort with some attacking oomph, there’s a chance here. There’s also a chance it is 18-0 after 14 minutes and the TV is going off before Blocker has even had a chance to say something nonsensical. It’s a scary matchup, but there is hope. So far the 2025 Eels haven’t been worthy of even hope, so let’s count that slight glimmer as a positive and hope we can spring the upset.
Prediction: Sea Eagles 28 d Eels 14
Man of the Match: Haumole Olakau’atu
Gol
Mate. Blocker will have said multiple nonsensical things before the game has even begun, so that’s a non-starter. My main interest point is how the Brooky faithful respond to DCE.
I think we’re no chance unless Tommy breaks down in the first 20 minutes. I’m just hoping to see more of the defence of last week, and trust that the attack will come, or the opposition will make errors (which the Dogs just didn’t do). Basically I’m hanging for next week!
Blocker “what’s the matta Parramatta “
I’m close to brookvale oval now and everywhere here is near flooded, soaking wet.
I know manly throw the ball around but the ball will be wet and slimy. Been raining here heavily for 2 days on an off.
The only way I see us winning is manly makes mistakes in their own end early which leads to parra tries, and forces them to not spread the ball as much.
This year the two teams who really moved the ball around on us scored tries very easily. We just need some luck early on and the manly team to be forced into a more conservative attack if they make a few errors with the swamp field and slimey we football.
Let’s go eels 💛💙
Man of the match: Jnr paulo Or Ryley Smith.
Game needs to be won in the middle. We need a huge game by these two. 🤞
The rain has disappeared, the sun is out and the ground has dried. My punting tip looks in trouble
I’m close by. It’s still pretty windy, I hope that at least adds to the unpredictably of the outcome. I’m close by where I live and grass here is still wet everywhere. Hopefully it at lest has a bit of dampness. The last thing we need is a dry track. Lol
Wind is also around 50km/h here too 60’s and manly oval is very open. Not sure if it helps us, but should at least make dce’s kicking game less clinical. Any luck we can cause some issues with attacking kicks swirling.
Realistically we are outsider’s.
Looking at Sharks and Bulldogs they are 4yrs into their rebuilding. Dragons two years.
We need to turn over the older players in the squad and are probably half way through
this painful process.
The focus on youth is essential and we have a mix of the old guard.
Joe O and Carty will finish this year – $900k
Lane, Matto, Junior are finishing next year – $2M
So we are not really getting our forwards massive coin freed up until 2027. That’s why rebuilding takes so long when the roster is screwed. The only hope is if players ask for a release this year and someone is willing to pay the difference.
Manly will be tough at Brookvale. But hopefully the wet conditions slow them down. Hopefully DCE catches the Brown disease of quite quitting and just plays in a dinner suit.
One of the big differences is Bulldogs and shakes have amongst the games best back rowers.
We made the gf and also finals those years where we all had some of the top back rowers in the game.
Not saying that’s everything, but currently we have millions of cap space stuck in forwards who in cup or looking average in first grade.
We look best in attack when either the middle is firing with Paulo, or in the past lane & Papalii had a legit running threat on the edges which created lots of opportunities.
I still think we only doing average not only because Moses is out but because a lot of snr players on big money are not even stand outs at nsw cup now. A few years ago those guys would have absolutely dominated at cup level.
Once we see the roster / cap being properly balanced again I think we will look like a completely different club.
I can’t think of any other club where several their highest paid forwards are playing in NSW cup. So hopefully their form changes or Jason will have to shift a good hand full of them on somehow before 26’.
These conditions are exactly what we needed. Manly absolutely love a dry track so they can throw the ball around and look like world beaters. We need to scrap it will be ugly but if the attitude is there we can definately beat them.
Watching the bulldogs game last night I don’t think we gave enough credit to how good the bulldogs system actually is at the moment. The sharks were pretty much at full strength at home and struggled to break them down consistently. We physically beat the bulldogs last week we just couldn’t land the final blow -and comparing were we are as a side to Cronulla that has to be a positive
The Dogs played without Burton and Kickau again and showed that the fundamentals count big time. Drawing a line through that form indicates that with a fair share of the ball and luck we may just surprise the Sea Eagles provided we don’t self-harm our way to gifting them another 60% possession game. Gutho showed yesterday what genuine leadership can do for a team, Junior, were you watching…?
Penisni is a putrid defender. That’s is such a predictable play by manly l. Joey is ripping into penisini for his defence. Perhaps will commits on wrong player so often as he knows he’s often too slow to slide.
Our issues not only defence as you mentioned on some players.
You can clearly see our line speed, physicality, is not the same this week it looks like.
The attack looks completely different like we have no creativity anymore – has Jason made our team too structured? Or is it just the absence of Moses & gutho?
We have maybe the least creative attack I’ve seen in a parra team for a very long time. We’ve generally always had good attack.
Lussick just failed to get to dummy half twice in an attacking set inside manly 20’ then lane didn’t get back onside for one play during the same attacking set – that’s so so poor
True. I will say though we look physical. I think with our attack flowing we could win games.
It just looks like currently our attack & creativity looks miles behind last years attacking systems. Hopefully Walker coming in can help us in this respect.
One positive – most teams would have had 20+ on them by now. We are obviously doing a few things right. We look like we (like like dogs game) physically in the fight, just very limited in attack so far.
Earlier I noticed brown dummy half for several tackles in a row lussick nowhere to be seen .get Smith on
Ron, don’t disagree, but 5 penalties conceded in first 20 minutes, a couple 50/50, gave Manly field position that I reckon they weren’t earning, the last 20 minutes confirmed for me that we tidy up our discipline and we compete. The break will be our enemy here, Manly will re-set.
Same story 2nd half.we keep giving Manly their attacking set up.Can’t win games playing like this.
I’ve mentioned it before. JAC spends his time just screaming at Penisini to not take the bait.
Penisini has been in the top grade for what ? 4 years ? And still makes the same mistakes, game after game.
All the other centres around will’s age or experience have surpassed him – kayal iro, tomoko, Seb Kris, best, koula, jaxon Purdue, ali leaatiua (warriors) etc are all better
Has ANYONE ever seen Penisini actually pass the ball ????
What a waste of a strike weapon like JAC outside this player.
Well that was thoroughly uninspiring. I don’t card that he’s a young half, but if he tearing up Dean Hawkins contract for the drop out penalty. That wax inexcusable, and then the look on his face as if he didn’t know what was going on. We just look like complete amateurs out there.
Hawkins is awful. He is a reserve grader but so is Lussick and most our forwards. We are trying to compete physically but individual brain explosions, laziness and a clear lack of footy nous is killing our ability to do anything substantive. Turning up in physical aspect doesn’t win an nrl game (even though the absence of its will lose one)
And what does Ryles have against Charlie Guymer ?
I think he knows it’s bad to change combinations on edges much more than he has.
But when Lane is someone can’t bruise a grape and is lazy I don’t see why guymer wouldn’t do better
Yet the mob that crucified JA were waxing lyrical about having a quality back up in Hawkins. The hypocrisy is astounding. You can take every comment I read about JA – too slow, poor decisions etc and I tell you Hawkins is worse. That effort on Burbo in the 1st half was slower than anything JA did and I guarantee JA makes that tackle. I see JA captioned the NSW cup team to a win over the Eels earlier today, not bad for a useless kid that no other club would ever sign.
Mate we are trying but Brown who has actually completed a run or two for a change is still a complete shadow of his former self and we have a complete spud out in the centres.
JR just has to pill the pin for Brown next week and move him to lock or something and bring a professional like Dylan Walker into the 6.
We also have Lane who wouldn’t get a run in any other NRL team, loafing on the edge.
I don’t know what people expect but other than Lane and Bown , the effort is still there.
Where’s our attack? The defence and physicality has been there and better than last year for the most part.
Just looks like we don’t have any attack or creativity compared to last season.
It’s very hard to generate any attack when one of your halves has given up. To say Dylan is a passenger would imply he got on for the ride. Time to drop him to reserve grade and put in someone who actually cares.
He looks half as dangerous a Luke brooks. Imagine somebody saying this 2-3 years ago. I don’t think he has had 1 run in the second half.
We all give no good ball to the Fox. Will P needs to pass. Defenders know he hogs it and doesn’t pass and easily cover him.
We are 5 mins from time and Brown hasn’t run once in the half.
hes just taking the piss now.
He joins the list with justin hunt, michael oldfield, and chris sandow. A far cry from even just 12 months ago. Can’t wait for him to leave, and if this was offline there’d be a lot worse I’d say about him.
Lack ofi ntent
2 mins to go Brown decides to run. Beats a man then sets up a try. …. 2 mins to go.!!!!
All up.
1 run for the half.
Brown had 1 run in 79th minute of second half – absolutely disgraceful gutless performance.
People laying into Hawkins and rightly so to a degree. But if your halves partner is not helping it makes Hawkins job that much harder. Hawkins and Volkman are both let down by Browns lazy non existent team work.
He’s obviously angling for an early release Dylan “I can’t wait to get there” Brown!
Too many errors.
The back 5 didn’t really have any impact! Lomax passes like a winger.
Lane is like having a scare Crow in the number 11. Even that last try showed how little he cares.
We need to cull the Orr players Brown, Lane and Matto.
Joe was better