When you are the Parramatta Eels, any game against any opponent is potentially a trap game. With that in mind, the Canberra Raiders, on a cold Sunday afternoon in the capital, coming off a three game winning streak and two impressive victories against finals contenders, that is a giant chocolate cake sitting on a piece of cardboard hiding a giant hole, underneath a tree with a giant cage hanging precariously off a branch. Even Wile E Coyote could see this one coming, so let’s hope the Eels are ready for an ambush on Sunday afternoon.

Game Info

Date: Sunday May 29, 2022
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
Kick-off: 4:05 PM AEST
Referee: Todd Smith
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 61, Eels 29, Raiders 32
Odds: Eels $1.50, Raiders $2.60
Lines: Eels -5.5, total points 40.5
Fact: The Raiders have not beaten the Eels in Canberra since 2019

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week, being $27 in profit, we treated the punt as a free hit and took Dylan Brown to be the first, second or third try scorer.

As it turned out, it was a dream match for traditionalists with outside backs grabbing all of the tries for both teams.

The account now stands at only $7 in profit, so an unsuccessful $20 punt will put us in the red.

Despite being away from home, the Eels are once again odds on favourites and  offering little value in head to head markets.

I’m tempted to suggest treating this week as a look on, especially as Parra’s recent record of alternating between win/loss has the side on track for a loss.

However, this is a milestone game for the in-form Isaiah Papali’i (100 NRL games) so I’ll be looking for the team to lift to get the win, with Ice grabbing a try as part of his celebrations.

Therefore, hit the score a try and win market, and take Parra Papa to score in an Eels win. That selection is returning $4.50.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Isaiah Papali’i. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Nathan Brown.

18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Jake Arthur 20. Mitch Rein 21. Hayze Perham 22. Sean Russell 23. Ky Rodwell 24. Maika Sivo.

It is a scary thought, but following the bye the Eels will be as full strength as they are going to get for 2022. Maika Sivo and Sean Russell are getting another week in reggies for fitness, but Waqa Blake makes a somewhat surprising return straight to the top grade after being listed as “indefinite” for the last two months. This pushes Hayze Perham to the reserves, and while Blake has had his own issues under the high ball at times, at least he can get enough air to make a contest of a catch.

Welcome back, Waqa!

Ryan Matterson’s return to the starting side was held back at the last minute for Marata Niukore, who retains a spot in the run-on team as an edge, with Isaiah Papli’i moving to the middle. Chances are Papali’i shifts to the edge himself when Matterson comes on, with Brad Arthur stating last week that Matterson’s continued bench use is as much an interchange strategy as anything else. While the prestige of a starting 13 position would be nice, as long as Matto is playing well I don’t care what jersey he starts in.

With a four forward bench, all eyes will be on Brad Arthur’s use of the interchange. How he balances the need for Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo to stay on the field to help the Eels dominate the middle contest against keeping them from burning out is the big question, as well as finding the 50-60 minutes Matterson deserves with his form. Shaun Lane again played 80 minutes last week and looked good doing it, complicating what I thought was an easy answer of “bring Lane off early”. I’d expect high effort impact stints from Nathan Brown and the bench props.

Canberra Raiders

1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Matt Timoko 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papalii 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Adam Elliott. 14 Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Sebastian Kris 17. Corey Horsburgh.

18.Brad Schneider 19. Harry Rushton 20. James Schiller 21. Corey Harawira-Naera 22. Trey Mooney 23. Emre Guler 24. Matt Frawley.

Ricky Stuart loves a late change, and he’ll be forced into at least one this week with Jarrod Croker’s return from injury delayed by his getting injured again, this time reaching for his TV remote. I like Croker, but seriously, even I haven’t got injured reaching for the remote and I once hurt my back making a coffee.

Ricky finally struck a combination that works for him in the last three weeks, but circumstances have aligned to blow that all apart this week. Jamal Fogarty makes an early return from injury and forces Brad Schneider to the reserves, while Xavier Savage replaces the injured Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad. Fogarty’s return is a welcome one, though Schneider has held his own to start the year he isn’t the creator that the former lower grade Eel can be.

Another big difference over the last few weeks for Canberra has been Zac Woolford, who has been a revelation at hooker and allows Tom Starling to return to his natural impact game off the bench. Adam Elliott has secured a starting role as well as proven a solid defensive hooker when needed, and Josh Papalii is rounding into form after some early concerns.

The Game

Approaching the bye and the halfway point of the competition, let’s take stock of the 2022 Parramatta Eels. They are sixth on the ladder, ten points in differential from fourth place. They hold the fourth best attack in the NRL and the eighth best defensive record, though using “best” to describe the Parramatta defence feels dishonest. This record has come from a draw with only four “true” home games, five games against fellow top eight teams, and four more against teams from last year’s top eight that currently sit outside it. It includes wins against the Panthers and Storm away from home, breaking 21 and 7 game home winning streaks for those teams. Three of the four losses came against top eight sides, two against top four teams the Sharks and Cowboys, and another against the Roosters. We continue to not talk about the Tigers game.

That all reads pretty well for mine, especially considering the crippling injury toll in the outside backs that has seen the sixth choice winger named on the flank for the last month. If the defensive combinations improve then Parramatta is very well placed for a premiership tilt, and those wins over Melbourne and Penrith should inspire hope in any fan that as long as the Eels finish in the eight, they can win the competition.

My pick for the Eels player of the half season – Ryan Matterson

The remainder of the draw sees seven home games, one trip outside of Sydney, and two five-day turnarounds. Seven of the 12 games are against top eight teams, four of those accounted for by the Rabbitohs and Broncos. Origin will take a toll on the club, particularly in the forwards where Junior Paulo is a NSW certainty while Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson are Blues chances and Reed Mahoney is a Harry Grant injury away from a Queensland call-up. Clint Gutherson and Mitchell Moses are outside chances for NSW should injuries strike, but neither are being mentioned much at this stage. The draw around Origin is very friendly for the Eels, though their opponents the Warriors, Tigers and Bulldogs are unlikely to lose many, if any, to representative duty.

What stands true is that, in a tight competition like this one, any loss will hurt. This week is a huge, flashing danger sign of a game for Parramatta, at a venue where they’ve struggled for a long time (last year’s win was the first since Brian Smith coached the side) and against a side that has spoiled the Eels plans on the regular for the last decade. Canberra has quietly rounded into form over the last fortnight, with two dominant wins against quality opposition. I’m worried.

There is no statistical explanation for how the Raiders belted the Sharks two weeks ago, it was a win of pure willpower. That’s scary, because that accurately describes the Raiders upset win over Parramatta at the back end of 2021, where they defended against type and overcame the “faders” reputation to finish strongly. I don’t like playing an opposition that wants a win so badly against us that they dig so deep as to overcome season long trends of poor fitness, discipline and desire.

Against Souths, Canberra won a far more traditional game by exploiting the Rabbitohs high error rate and inability to stick a tackle. When a front rower is breaking 8 tackles in a game, even a front rower as good as Josh Papalii, something has gone wrong in your side. The outside backs also had a field day, with Nick Cotric and Jordan Rapana chipping in for big metres efforts, a few offloads and a lot of tackle breaks. That is something Parramatta lacks right now, and while Waqa Blake will help the kick return game it is an area the Raiders will have an advantage.

Reed needs to stay composed and get the ball to his halves when they want it.

Enough doomsaying, how do we beat them? The Raiders right edge defence is fairly ordinary, and lines up against the Eels lethal left attack. The reverse is also true, the Raiders left edge is their preferred side, but has only accounted for 14 tries this year, as opposed to the Eels’ 23, while the Eels right edge has conceded 20 tries to the Raiders’ 19.
The Raiders have the second worst completion rate in the NRL, which matches up poorly with the league leading Eels. They concede the most penalties in the NRL, the Eels the fewest, and they are top four in handling errors. I doubt this game is as simple as “hold the ball and win” for the Eels, but all things equal, their natural game should trouble Canberra and force them into a lot of defence. One interesting statistic is that the Raiders have only been awarded 10 set restarts for the year, while the Eels have only conceded 10. A lopsided ruck infringement count the Raiders way would be well against trend this year.

One area to watch is the Canberra offloads, they sit second in the NRL behind the Eels in offloads per game and Parramatta is vulnerable to second phase play and the shifts that follow quick play-the-balls or late offloads. Those shifts might not be a huge concern, the Raiders throw the fewest passes of all NRL teams and no outside back in the side has more than four tries, but the return of Fogarty might change that. Dummy half runs are also a Canberra specialty, and Parramatta gives away plenty of quick rucks that allow them.

The Lowdown

I hate these kinds of games. Reasonable favourite, away from home against an up and down opposition with a history of lifting for these contests. If Parramatta wants to show they’ve turned the corner, this is the week to do it and really come out and bury a team they should be able to beat.

I think it’ll be a tough, grinding, close game. It will be crucial for Mitchell Moses to maintain composure and control field position and possession through his kicking game, and for the Eels to show patience in attack. Set up the shapes and execute them, Reed Mahoney just can’t continue to be so happy to unload yet another crash ball without following it up by exploiting the compressed defence. One crash ball creates space, three wastes two tackles.

If Mitch Moses controls this game, the Eels win. 

Defensively, the Raiders haven’t played in such a way this year that will exploit the biggest weaknesses in the Eels line. Their shape and spreads haven’t been great, and replacing Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad with Xavier Savage might provide more individual threat but it does nothing for their backline shifts. Jack Wighton needs to be defended closely and can exploit lazy inside defenders, especially from mid-field where the Eels over defence problems have often started, but the Raiders present a good opportunity for the Parramatta edge combinations to show improvement.

Canberra is going to be up for this one, and Parramatta needs to meet their effort. I’m choosing to have faith that this will be the case, with a bye following the Eels will leave it all on the field to stay in touch with the top four and set themselves up for the second half of the season. We can’t rely on the traditional second half fade the Raiders have become known for, Parramatta needs to start strong and put a boot on the throat all match long. Get ruthless boys.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 28 d Canberra 16

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

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