There’s an elephant in the rugby league room and it goes by the name of Omicron.
The latest variant in the COVID pandemic is wreaking havoc across Australia with NSW “leading the way” after hitting 5 digit numbers of infections on consecutive days. Most concerning is that the reported numbers are likely to be grossly inaccurate, given thousands of people are being turned away from testing centres.
NSW Health Minister, Brad Hazzard, has been quoted as saying that he expects everyone in our state to catch COVID, and with over 90% of the population double vaccinated, governments are moving towards a “living with the virus” philosophy and policy.
Unlike the 2020 infection wave where many of us didn’t know anyone who contracted the virus, or the mid year 2021 lockdown where we might have known a couple of people who became ill, this latest infection surge has impacted multiple people in our lives.
Personally, my immediate family has now received booster shots, but I remain cautious around potential exposure to the virus. The WHO are warning of a global tsunami of cases, so it’s hard not to be concerned.
Whilst acknowledging that livelihoods and indeed lives continue to be impacted by the disease itself or by the associated restrictions and protocols, this is a rugby league platform so my focus in this post will be potential consequences of the Omicron variant on our game.
Make no mistake, all levels of rugby league will be impacted.
Australia may be an island, yet we will not be an island when it comes to how our major sporting codes respond to the virus. Therefore, if we have a quick look at what’s been happening in some major overseas sports, we can predict what will be faced in the NRL and all levels below it.
In the EPL, numerous games have been postponed or teams have been forced to play with seriously weakened line ups. Infections across the UK continue to escalate and it’s impossible for players to avoid coming into contact with positive cases. At best, teams aren’t able to play at full strength; at worst, they are unable to field a team at all.
Looking at the USA, there have been short period postponements in the NFL caused by infections in team rosters. The complication for their code is that no play means no pay.
The NHL has had dozens of postponed games. With the number certain to rise, it’s valid to question whether those games can be played at all.
Postponements have also occurred in the NBA whilst college football and basketball games have been cancelled outright.
La Liga matches are yet to be called off, with teams playing without COVID positive players and the league eliminating “pre-match pleasantries” between teams.
Locally, when COVID first struck, the NRL introduced protocols such as the team “bubbles” to not only protect players and staff but to also secure permission to stage events during lockdowns.
Whilst the NRL might either try to implement or recommend some COVID safety protocols in 2022, we shouldn’t expect that players would live under the “bubble” conditions of the last two seasons. The community is no longer subjected to lockdowns so it’s both unnecessary and unrealistic to expect players to live like that, especially as the country moves towards this “living with the virus” philosophy.
Will Penisini
However, players across clubs have already tested positive or have been deemed close contacts during the preseason. Those at the future Blues camp were forced into isolation just before Christmas, with Eels NRL players Will Penisini and Sean Russell missing Parra training sessions as a result, and pathways players Blaize Talagi, Larry Muagututia and Jock Brazel also quarantining.
Though quarantining periods are likely to be shortened to seven days, if we look to the overseas experiences, the 2022 NRL season will be impacted by COVID. That means teams playing with severely weakened line ups or the possible postponement of matches.
What will need to be addressed?
Player eligibility rules will once again need to be relaxed. Squad depths will be tested and teams will need to call on second tier and Development Contracted players.
More importantly, full transparency will be essential should decisions be made to postpone matches.
In the first instance, it’s likely that the NRL will treat the loss of players to COVID in much the same way as the loss of players to injury. Injury is an expected circumstance every season, and some teams will unfortunately be more affected than others.
Likewise, being without players due to infection will be the luck of the draw. Clubs will probably have to cop it sweet and play on. The current Ashes series is an example of that. Cricketers from both countries have missed tests due to COVID, but the matches have followed schedule.
If this is the case, perhaps those clubs which implement and adhere to their own COVID safety protocols might be as advantaged as teams which have the best injury prehab and rehab programs.
Another factor pushing matches to proceed is the broadcasting agreements and the associated season draw. They were critical when the pandemic first struck in Australia and the overseas experience indicates it will remain the same.
Abdo and PVL guided the NRL through the first COVID waves
However, there may be circumstances where the number of infections, or the day that COVID results are confirmed, make it necessary to postpone a match. If so, there must be absolute clarity around such decisions given that all clubs would prefer a match to be postponed rather than facing certain defeat with a weakened line up.
Obviously, competitions below NRL level will face similar problems. Supposition leads me to suspect cancellations or forfeits at junior levels as trying to organise new dates for multiple postponed matches could be problematic.
Even at this early stage, I’m predicting that there will be controversies associated with COVID responses and decisions.
The only certainty we have is that the pandemic doesn’t look like ending in the near future and 2022 will be the first time that the NRL will face multiple infections across clubs rather than simply dealing with a few protocol breaches.
Perhaps early lessons will be learned via the Junior Representative competitions and the NRLW Premiership, both of which kick off in February. The challenges faced during the early rounds of those competitions may help to inform the NRL about how best to face what lies ahead.
I hope I’m wrong, but unless the NRL develops amazing contingency plans, next year might just leave the last two seasons looking like child’s play in comparison.
Update:
Just a few hours after this post was published, the Big Bash clash between the Scorchers and The Stars was postponed due to a staff member testing positive and the difficulty in getting all players tested and results known before the scheduled start. This is another example of what the NRL could be facing in 2022.
Eels forever!
Sixties
The year & season of Uncertainty creeps up on us all, & I don’t think its just with this aspect as sixties has so well put it into functions.
It had to come and to be exposed, and not much we can do about it either.
If we face this “living with Covid” world, and all indications are pointing to that, then it goes without saying that a Covid impact on the NRL in 2022 is inevitable.
Do you think they will cancel Reserve grade again ? My son has had 2 yrs of reserve grade cancellations surely it can’t happen for a 3rd year
I don’t believe so, but I suspect that it is one of the grades more likely to face postponements – the up side might be that more second tier players will play NRL. In fact, moving forward I think it should be standard practice for NRL clubs to be able to call on all contracted players – top 30 or second tier – all season.
Yes , they need to change the ruling on development players not be able to play NRL till june 1st unless special permission from board or upgrading to top 30
I can’t see any alternative to making all contracted players eligible to play NRL
Here’s a controversial approach – gather up the top 30 players 3 weeks before the competition starts and intentionally infect them. Get it over and done with and rely on their boosted immunity that comes from being infected to see them through the following 8 months of footy unaffected by the dribs & draws approach other clubs will have.
I was thinking the same thing.
The manager of the side I support in England (soccer) stated most of their players have caught the new variant. Only 4 players have yet to catch it.
So they are not worried about postponement due to them not being able to field a team.
Makes me think that we should welcome early season infections.
That’s thinking outside the square and could be the answer – but somehow I don’t see the player association agreeing to that – and perhaps even Amnesty International might have an issue 😀
Seasons Greetings to all here, and may everyone have a calm and better 2022…….
Very interesting comments and topic here Sixties. I somewhat agree with Trouser.
My issue is the state premiers being political in a year of a federal election. Too many games have been played already between states and this will only get worse over the course of early 2022.
I agree it is here for a while, and tbh i am sceptical of half the stuff we see each day, hence I haven’t watched the news for ages.
I am all for looking after the young and vulnerable and the rest can look after themselves. You cannot lock up people for years over this, and then people with health issues get put on the backburner.
This has taken a toll already for people in jobs, let alone small businesses.
I am sure sport will be taken care of, as we have seen thus far. We saw AFL and League seem to get the jump on others when states got locked down….I am sure we will see elements of Sixties ideas come to fruition with teams using many players as needed.
Question – has any country been examining what’s eventuated in China? Where this all began? The RAT seem to all come from there, someone is making some good $$.
I’d be surprised if state governments are going to limit sporting contests as the genie is well and truly out of the bottle everywhere. We’ve moved from having bubbles to meet government protocols to ensure that competitions can go ahead to sports and teams taking care of business themselves in relation to isolating players.
Milo, were we to get into Origins and profiteering in this post it would go down a very volatile path.
Yeah they wont cut sport off in my view Sixties, that was my point; my concern is some states have their own rules and change them accordingly. If this variant is so bad ( which i am not in agreement over) then why allow the MCG test to go ahead..and BBL. I am happy for the sport to continue.
Yes more origins than we can guess….wonder what the next variant will be called? 🙂
It will be something Greek I imagine Milo. With everything pressing ahead, we know that there will be decisions on the run. That’s my concern.
Very good response here Milo.
The first lie that we need to do away with is that we have a vaccination. We don’t.
We have a shot, I have now had 3, that reduces hospitalisation and death. Furthermore there is now irreversible proof that Mono Clonals also reduce death so they should be available to all who catch the virus.
On the sporting side of things you see what is happening with cricket and especially the BBL. That is a preview of what we are likely to see in the NRL at least for the early part of the 2022 NRL season.
P.S. Yesterday in the US 480,000 cases. 70,000 in New York alone. New York being the US version of Melbourne.
From a population perspective (infections per million of population) we look very similar in recent days.
Great overview sixties. How does this play out? Who knows? One of the big problems is that no matter how well one club institutes strong protocols it can be brought down by any number of actions from inside or out in the let it rip free for all. Whatever, best to be aware,sensible and safe in what you can control.
Cheers BDon. I wrote this because to ignore what lies ahead would simply be sticking our heads in the sand. The postponement of the BBL match at the last moment has demonstrated how quickly a positive case can impact a match.
My wife and i have both tested positive in the last few days thankfully we only have minor symptoms as we are both vaccinated.
Keep well Gianni. Any clue as to when you were exposed to it?
Thinking through my wife’s work Comm bank.
Every player in a clubs roster from flegg up should be available for top grade selection , salary cap for top 30 is to control spending not to deny players getting an opportunity , if a club chooses to play someone on less money over a major earner based on form thats good for the game overall , to many times our club has lost youngsters simply because we dont have space in top 30 so a rival swoops in and offers top 30 spot , its not about the money we lose them its the denial of opportunity from a stupid outdated system , i dont blame the players grabbing an opportunity but i do blame the ridiculous system that costs clubs local juniors simply because someone was able to offer them an opportunity a season earlier than the club that developed them , the salary cap was put in place to control spending not to destroy development clubs benefiting from the work theyve put in.People have complained for ages about us losing juniors to other clubs ,didnt happen so much before salary cap was introduced , its simply an antiquated system that punishes those that coach for the benefit of those that poach !!!! A free range system would give not only clubs the chance to keep thier own but also give their juniors the opportunity to play where their heart is , come on nrl admin , your a lot smarter and progressive than your predecessors, fix it for the good of the game .
Well said Old Timer. If they are on the club’s books they should be eligible.
They must start treating this like a normal flu and just play everyone unless they have symptoms enough to make them unfit.
The government have scare mongerd the public into vaccination and but have now relaxed everything because the economy comes first. If it was that bad they wouldn’t be letting the elderly into clubs and bingo parlors like they are now.
My parents are both 80 and are let in to play the pokies in a small club with hundreds of others without being tested , but super fit footballers cant play a game if they aren’t cleared and have had umpteen tests what a joke. Stupid
Just play everyone, treat it like a flu and forget about covid. fk covid. dont let it run your life.
Hodge, the circumstances have changed haven’t they! There can be no bubble now as it’s almost a free for all out in the community. I suspect that in the early part of the season players will miss one match. As the year moves on, it will be like the players have the flu – as you suggest. And to be honest, when players are sick they are generally kept away from others to limit a flu spreading. It’s maybe not too different now.