Game Info

Date: Sunday 12 September, 2021

Venue: Browne Park, Rockhampton

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Ashley Klein

Head-to-head: Played 55, Parramatta 24, Newcastle 30, Drawn 1

Odds: Eels $1.39 Knights $3.00

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta Eels 40 d Newcastle Knights 4, Newcastle, R13 2021

Parramatta Eels 10 d Newcastle Knights 4, Newcastle, R9 2020

Parramatta Eels 20 d Newcastle Knights 14, Bankwest Stadium, R21 2019

Newcastle Knights 28 d Parramatta Eels 14, Newcastle, R7 2019

Background

At last, season 2021 begins for the Parramatta Eels. If you told me at the start of the year we’d be playing in the 6 v 7 preliminary final I’d have probably been disappointed, but in a year where there is no post-season home field advantage and every team in the top four is going to be a challenge to beat, it doesn’t feel too bad being in an elimination game week one. That it comes against a team described as one of the worst finalists of the NRL era might be a reason for that confidence. 

2021 doesn’t feel like the year for miracles. Results have been more predictable than ever and the gap between the best and the rest is as wide as I can remember. Luckily for the Eels, that gap starts at 6th place and ends at 7th place, with Parramatta safely on the good side of the divide. Next week Parramatta will be the underdogs, but not making it to next week would go down as one of the great finals upsets in a year where the upset has taken an extended vacation.

I’m confident, and despite the last 35 years of Parramatta football giving you plenty of reasons not to be, you should be confident too. Have some faith in this group, remember the huge win over Melbourne was only two weeks ago, and just enjoy some Eels finals footy. Remember those lean years, the Kearney era, the salary cap disgraces, Ricky Stuart, Chris Sandow. Those are the times to be a sad sack pessimist about Parramatta. Right now the hope is alive, the Eels are huge favourites in a semi final. Save that pessimism for when we need to beat the Rabbitohs or the Sea Eagles in a couple of weeks.

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

I love a punt on the NRL. During the season I’ll have a multi across two or three matches every weekend, with the only proviso that Parra can’t be one of those matches. Unfortunately, when I put my coin on the Eels it rarely ends well. Despite that, I’m “allowed“ to offer tips on Parra and though there’s been a recent bad run, I’ve had a decent year on the tip.

Betting accounts aren’t my bag, so the last bet that I placed at a TAB just before the lockdown was backing Manly to finish top 4 at the juicy odds of $6. That seems like a good result to hang the cap on for now.

This week I’ve made the decision to not offer any punting suggestion. The Eels are at short odds in a finals match, and I honestly see no value in the 100+ markets that are available.

Keep the wallet closed and wait for next week. The odds will be much better, no matter who our opponent will be.

And if you decide to have a crack anyway, I wish you happy and responsible punting.

Sixties

 

How we look

If you took nothing from the intro, here it is again: finals football is the time for optimism. With that in mind, I’m going to assume the Eels that beat the Storm two weeks ago are a representation of what Parramatta finals football will look like, ignoring the month prior. That team is absolutely capable of winning a premiership, but a lot needs to go right.

The Eels defensive efforts against the Storm were incredibly impressive. Sixties gave a great rundown of the high effort plays that were the difference between winning and losing, and while there were some shaky moments for the edge defence the scramble and effort areas covered for those lapses. It is an effort shared with the Eels other most impressive win of the year, in round 2 against Melbourne, where Clint Gutherson racked up a season worth of try savers in a night.

The difference between a trysaver and having to avoid a post-try celebratory spiking of the ball is fractions of a second, which are bought by the high effort of edge defenders. This is particularly true on the right edge with Blake Ferguson holding on the wing despite the irresistible temptation to come in and help on Justin Olam. Maybe Blake has turned a corner in his decision making? Making that right choice to hold or rush on those wings has proven difficult for the Eels this year, but buying the cover a precious second enables the high effort scramble plays. That might not be enough against the slick moves of Manly and Souths, but this week I trust the Parramatta scramble and decision making to limit the Knights attack.

With the ball, the Eels finally went through the middle before going wide. Despite the prevailing narrative that Parramatta weren’t a strong attacking side in 2021, they managed plenty of points from a combination of occasionally well executed spreads, finding wingers space to beat a man one-on-one, and a lot of kicks. It was thought (and proven in the losing streak) that this wasn’t enough to beat the best teams, but with better execution on the edges the Eels had little trouble scoring against the defensive powerhouse of the competition. 

I expect Parramatta to follow the blueprint of two weeks ago, to be happy to shift and run down the short side off of good carries. Bryce Cartwright was huge against Melbourne, drawing defensive attention whenever he joined the line, and while he tried to do too much as a feature player last weekend he is going to be a key to breaking defensive lines through the finals. He is unexpected and requires a shift from regular defensive reads, breaking defenders out of an automatic decision making mindset and inviting the chance to make mistakes. The Eels standard shift and block plays are an early childhood level read for most well drilled defensive sides this time of year, and Bryce Cartwright is the equivalent of throwing the word “cacophony” into a Spot book: he is going to create some confusion and probably some stumbles and stutters.

Oh and boys, stop batting back those mid field kicks without knowing anybody is there. Those are runaway tries waiting to happen. Catch and pass or spot the man and control it, or swarm around the ball to cover it, just don’t let Ponga, Watson or Clifford swoop on the stray ball and run 90 to score.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Haze Dunster 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Ray Stone 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Will Smith 15. Bryce Cartwright 16. Isaiah Papali’i 17. Makahesi Makatoa. 18. Ryan Matterson 19. Oregon Kaufusi 20. Tom Opacic 21. Jake Arthur. 

This isn’t exactly what we expected. Joey Lussick has been struck down by a calf strain, apparently suffered at training. This gives last week’s standout Ray Stone a chance to start, and while I’ll be glad to see “Stone Fold” continue to cut men in half I’ll be hoping the superior service of Lussick returns sooner rather than later. Stone threw a few passes from dummy half that gave me confidence last week, but he lacks deception and experience at picking moments. Is Stone really going to hit the short runner on the fourth, or will he automatically find his half and feed them? That kind of predictability will make the attacking job a lot tougher.

The other major change is the return via the extended bench for Ryan Matterson. Matto hasn’t had a career year by any means, but not cracking the 17 when coming back from suspension is a shocker. Instead, Marata Niukore gets a well deserved start while Isaiah Papali’i comes off the bench. I’m sure there is a method to this madness (and it best not involve Shaun Lane playing 80 minutes) but these are significant changes to be making in a preliminary final.

As expected, Will Penisini has usurped Tom Opacic in the centres, he has just had too much impact as a runner and held himself well enough in defence that you couldn’t deny the kid. Makahesi Makatoa keeps Oregon Kaufusi off the bench on his return, a deserved spot for a man who has delivered big time in his belated first grade debut. Bryce Cartwright will want to have a big game, coming off an ordinary week and knowing his position is likely a battle with Ray Stone when Lussick returns.

Newcastle

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Enari Tuala 3. Kurt Mann 4. Bradman Best 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Connor Watson. 14. Sauaso Sue 15. David Klemmer 16. Josh King 17. Brodie Jones. 18. Phoenix Crossland 19. Jirah Momoisea 20. Simi Sasagi 21. Jack Johns.

The Knights basically have a full complement here, Lachlan Fitzgibbon is the only regular first grader out through injury and the Knights have been without him for much of the year anyway. David Klemmer is under a cloud, with Momoisea I suppose his likely replacement. No, I don’t know who that is either.

That bench is an obvious weak spot for the Knights, especially if Klemmer is out. It’s a group of big bodies but is dangerously low on impact, and if this week goes anything like the round 13 clash it will be soon after those first changes where the Eels will take command of the game. From the 29th minute to the 42nd that week the Eels put up four tries which turned an 8-0 arm wrestle into a 28-0 hiding.

That game doesn’t mean a lot for comparison though, with Pearce and Ponga both absent for Newcastle and Jake Clifford making his club debut after a transfer from North Queensland. I’d expect more fight this time around, but the path to victory remains largely the same: match their starters, overwhelm their bench.

Intangibles

There is no greater indictment of the state of rugby league officiating than Ashley Klein ranking among the four best referees and taking charge of a finals game. There are no excuses for the Eels if they lose this one, but Klein’s mere presence will breed anxiety in the army of Parramatta fans that love a #refsfault. The Eels are 4-2 under Klein this year, the Knights 0-2 (losses to the Titans and Cowboys by a combined 78-36).

Browne Park is the neutral venue for what would have, in normal times, been the Eels home semi final at Bankwest. This will be the first Australian semi final since the Winfield Cup era where a goalkicker could put a ball onto a leagues club roof, which to me makes up for losing home field advantage. It’s a reasonable hike up to Rockhampton from the Eels’ Gold Coast home base, but with a long turnaround they should be well rested and prepared.

It’ll be bloody hot (by footy standards) up at Rockhampton, expecting the high 20s and little chance of rain. I don’t expect fitness to be a factor for Parramatta, but a run of possession either way could turn into momentum which would only be exacerbated by fatiguing heat. Discipline will be important in this one.

The Eels should have the Knights for finals experience, with Newcastle breaking a six year finals drought in the preliminary final last year, a hiding at the hands of Souths, while Parramatta has played six in the last four seasons. Sure, we lost most of those, but big game experience is big game experience. There is plenty of Origin experience in the Newcastle team with Pearce, Klemmer, Ponga and Saifiti, but there is a chance a few Knights are overawed by the occasion.

The Opposition

Some quick facts about the 2021 Newcastle Knights:

• They have the second worst attack in the NRL this year, ahead of only the Bulldogs, who rank among the worst attacking teams in the NRL era.
• They have the eighth best defence, conceding 5ppg more than the Eels, and we spent the last month of the competition getting thrashed by 40 most weeks.
• They lost to the Tigers this year. Twice.
• They beat just two of their fellow top eight sides this year. The Titans two weeks ago in a game best described as “no team wants to win this” and somehow beating a Tom Trbojevic led Manly back in round 12, the week after Manly beat the Eels silly at Bankwest. To me this means the Knights have already used their one “fluke” card for the season.
• Parramatta beat the Knights 40-4 in their only meeting this year.

As mentioned earlier, Rugby League Eye Test pointed out the Knights are the biggest anomaly of finalists in the NRL era in terms of being below average in both attack and defence. While they have players to be scared of, it will be a humiliating finish to the season should the Eels bow out against this Newcastle team.

The only team that scored a higher percentage of their total tries down the left edge than the Knights was the Rabbitohs, which, yeah, that makes sense. It doesn’t mean the Knights left edge was an unstoppable force (they were 8th in the NRL for total left edge tries) but it does mean they’ll run plays down the left a lot more than the right. Kalyn Ponga in particular links the inside men to the winger down that side, while Bradman Best is a dangerous running threat and Enari Tuala is a solid enough finisher who leads the Knights in tries this year (with 10). Mitchell Barnett found some early season success running down that side as well.

The poor performance of the Newcastle attack is somewhat baffling. The individuals in the team should be capable of putting on big scores, with Mitchell Pearce a controlling veteran half who makes good choices, kicks well and still has a touch of running threat about him. Kalyn Ponga is the NRL’s premier twinkletoes and like Parramatta’s Clint Gutherson, is an expert at throwing that pass to the left winger when joining the line. Jayden Brailey started the year strongly but has tailed off, and Jake Clifford has similarly been a dangerous runner in the middle of the field but worryingly, has only one line break assist on the year. Line breaks are a problem for the Knights in general, meaning they need to manufacture points from field position and off opposition errors. Starve them of possession and good ball, and they’ll struggle to create opportunities.

Defensively the Knights aren’t a terrible side, but both edges are very leaky. Enari Tuala is equal first with David Nofoaluma for try concedes in 2021 with 28, Starford To’a was leaking at a worse rate than that before being hooked for Hymel Hunt mid year, who has been a lot better. Bradman Best and Kurt Mann inside those two have conceded 14 a piece (from 16 and 21 games respectively, though not all Mann’s were in the centres). For reference, Blake Ferguson conceded 18 in 16 games this year, Maika Sivo 12 in 21, Tom Opacic 11 in 21 and Waqa Blake 9 in 15. Long story short: the Knights edges concede a lot of tries.

So through the hands it is for the Eels, which plays nicely into the standard Parramatta strategy of barge through the middle, kick deep and win field position. Game control should equal points here even with the modest threat Parramatta’s shape presents, if they can replicate the Storm game and get some variation in motion and move wide off of quick rucks then Newcastle will have no answer and are probably looking at conceding 30+.

As individual threats the Knights don’t really have much. They’re poor as a team at offloading and tackle breaking, David Klemmer was second in the NRL in offloads last year, he is 81st this season. Connor Watson at lock and Ponga at the back are their best tackle breaking threats, and while Bradman Best has a ripping individual highlight reel and is the man in their backline I’m most afraid of single handedly killing the Eels, but the facts are he has scored only 3 tries this year, 2 of those coming in games against Canterbury. Potential is not matching performance for Best in 2021.

One area the Knights are strong is discipline. They have missed the second fewest number of tackles, given away the fewest penalties and are among the best teams in the NRL for handling. On top of this, Jake Clifford is third in the NRL in forced dropouts and the Knights are fourth in the NRL for tackles in the opposition 20, though that might be because their popgun attack has been so ineffective at crossing the line (for example, the Storm are 11th in that stat, Roosters 12th, so chances does not equal attacking potency). They leak when they give away chances, but Parramatta will need to earn those chances.

The story

Parramatta has had little trouble putting away opposition they are expected to beat in 2021, suffering only two losses to teams considered a class below them in the Raiders and Dragons. In both of those games the opposition put in high effort performances that were anomalies to their season long results, but they do present a blueprint for how underdogs can rattle the Eels. The Raiders put in extended defensive effort for 80 minutes, immune to the effects of fatigue. The Dragons pushed the boundaries of the six again rules, controlling the ruck with wrestling and unphased about giving away another set if it meant controlling the speed of the game. Both defensive styles frustrated the Eels, limiting their opportunities and putting pressure on their execution. The question then, is Newcastle capable of this kind of performance?

There is no defining performance for the Knights in 2021. Their win against Manly was notable for how flat the Sea Eagles were, their biggest wins came against also-rans like the Cowboys. They’ve never looked like a good team having a rough year, they are a perfect representation of mediocrity. Yes they’ll win this one if the Eels don’t turn up for a fight, but I have seen nothing this year that suggests the Knights will play anywhere near their potential, and even if they do, that it could match the Eels best footy.

This game is, without doubt, Parramatta’s to lose. It is a good mental test of the club to go out and do what they should, and an excellent chance to get a few things right before they go in as heavy underdogs against whoever stands in their way for the remainder of the season. A loss is unacceptable.

How will it play out? I see a slow but inevitable middle dominance emerging for the Eels, especially with the benches as named. Both teams might earn an equal number of opportunities, but Parramatta will do much more with them. The tries will probably look simple, the wingers will probably score most of them, but they will come. The Knights’ path to victory is Pearce and Ponga dramatically improving and having huge individual games. Both are capable of it, but neither looks like showing it. 

This will be the only game in the finals the Eels start favourites in, and I’m hoping they play like that. This season is well and truly alive for Parramatta, and a week one exit is simply unacceptable. No pressure boys, but go out there and smash them. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 28 d Newcastle Knights 16

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses