Game Info

Date: Sunday 20 June, 2021

Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Kick Off: 2:00PM AEST

Referee: Matt Cecchin

Head-to-head: Played 149, Parramatta 67, Canterbury 77, Drawn 5

Odds: Eels $1.08 Bulldogs $7.50

Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta Eels 32 d Canterbury Bulldogs 10, Stadium Australia, R8 2021

Parramatta Eels 18 d Canterbury Bulldogs 16, Stadium Australia, R12 2020

Parramatta Eels 8 d Canterbury Bulldogs 2, Bankwest Stadium, R1 2020

Canterbury Bulldogs 12 d Parramatta Eels 6, Bankwest Stadium, R23 2019

Background

It has been a fine fortnight for Eels fans, putting on 40 in consecutive weeks for the first time since round 22-23, 2009. For context, this week’s debutant Sean Russell wasn’t even born when that happened (stat not verified). Comparisons to that golden run of form at the end of 2009 are always nice, as long as we don’t mention “that guy” and just refer vaguely to what was a “good run”. 

This iteration of the Eels is about as far from that one man band as can be, and while coach Brad Arthur has been unhappy with sections of the last two games I will happily take what Parramatta has delivered the last two weeks over the playing down to inferior opposition that has become far too common in the last few years. You could say that the “playing down” hoodoo was broken back in round 8 when the Blue & Gold put the Bulldogs away for the first time in what felt like a decade, and now they get to reprise that effort at Bankwest this Sunday.

The dirty dogs will be riding about as high as a team that has won five of their last 23 games can be, delivering their biggest win since 2018 last weekend in belting the hapless Dragons. Yet the Bulldogs remain the wooden spoon favourites and Parramatta will be at Winx odds to take this game. Fans will be expecting a big win, the Bulldogs will have nothing to lose, and hopefully the Eels will make it three 40+ scores in a row for the first time since 2001 (Russell legitimately wasn’t born when that last happened). Let’s dig in.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

The frustrations of the punt!

Last week I stated that a repeat of the first ever match at Bankwest was on the cards. I saw a big score coming, and then expanded on that in our live podcast appearance at Parra Leagues prior to the match, predicting Gutho as first try scorer, Parra by 13+ and 50 or more total match points.

Unfortunately, my punting tip for the preview was in a first half market, one that would have delivered had either Opacic or Moses taken their try opportunities.

This week, the Eels odds are again very skinny, and I don’t like predicting huge margins for Eels against the Dogs. Therefore, I’m looking at value markets such as to score a try and win.

I’m tipping Isaiah Papali’i to score in an Eels win at the odds of $2.60.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

How we look

It has been a fun two weeks, but ultimately beating on cellar dwellers isn’t going to tell us much about the Eels’ premiership chances in 2021. Think of this stretch of the draw like half-time entertainment, where one particularly fast kid is putting on an absolute clinic in mod footy. It doesn’t mean he is the next Peter Sterling, but wasn’t it fun to watch before the big show continues?

Brown had a big day against the Tigers, but got caught out in defence when tired

That real show includes Parramatta playing top contenders in six of their last nine clashes, with the Storm, Panthers (twice), Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs and Roosters punctuated only by matches against the Cowboys, Titans and Raiders. In a season where the top four may be decided by for and against, Parramatta can’t afford to drop these chances to put up a score, because you know Melbourne, Penrith and Souths won’t. 

It will be interesting to see how Parramatta plays without the “try button” Maika Sivo, who has been turning one-on-one situations with no room into tries with alarming frequency. Sean Russell isn’t going to steamroll a defender like they aren’t there, so it will be up to the Eels’ shape to create a passage to the line for him. Waqa Blake has looked good with a lot of room to run, but he needs to find his place in the attacking shape and play his role more effectively. He certainly looks like a new man out on the left edge, though this could also be due to his getting better ball against lesser opposition. If he can torch Penrith again in a couple of weeks, I’ll become a believer.

That sums up how I feel about Parramatta right now. Things are good, but in two weeks we face the real test and we just need to get through the Bulldogs with a win and without injuries or suspensions. If that sounds dismissive of our opposition this week, well yes it is, but the men in Blue & Gold will undoubtedly be more professional than I am and be taking this match very seriously.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Sean Russell 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Marata Niukore 15. Shaun Lane 16. Keegan Hipgrave 17. Nathaniel Roache. 18. Oregon Kaufusi 19.Blake Ferguson 20. Bryce Cartwright 21. Jakob Arthur.

This is an interesting one. Sean Russell wasn’t the favourite to come in for the suspended Maika Sivo, but the young fullback turned winger has impressed in NSW Cup and earns a one-week taste of first grade ahead of Blake Ferguson, Michael Oldfield and Will Penisini. It looks like Brad Arthur wants to preserve the new combinations that are just beginning to gel with Waqa Blake on the left edge and an Opacic/Dunster combination on the right. It doesn’t bode well for Blake Ferguson’s future in the Blue & Gold, though if I was Brad Arthur I’d be doing anything to avoid a return of the Wall of Blake too, even if it would be on the opposite side of the field.

Surprise debutant Sean Russell

The bench contains some more surprises, as Oregon Kaufusi and Bryce Cartwright find themselves in NSW Cup to make way for Keegan Hipgrave and Nathaniel Roache. Roache makes the most sense, a specialist hooker who can relieve Joey Lussick. Lussick was very good in place of Reed Mahoney last week, but 80 minutes at NRL intensity is a tough ask of any player. Will Smith can consider himself unlucky to miss out on the utility role once again, but I still feel he is the man most likely if BA names his best team with all players available.

Hipgrave had a day out against the Wests Magpies in NSW Cup last week and is being rewarded with a return to the bench. He should spell Nathan Brown for a quick 20 minute burst and offers more straight line disruption than Bryce Cartwright, who was guilty of overplaying his hand a little against the Tigers. Kaufusi should feel hard done by, but has had some issues with his hands and might benefit from a big stint in NSW Cup. If Brad Arthur needs to tinker with his bench to figure out the best lineup, this is the time to do it.

Canterbury

1. Nick Meaney 2. Nick Cotric 3. Will Hopoate 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Tuipulotu Katoa 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Jake Averillo 8. Jack Hetherington 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Luke Thompson 11. Adam Elliott 12. Matt Doorey 13. Josh Jackson. 14. Sione Katoa 15. Dylan Napa 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Corey Waddell. 18. Kyle Flanagan 19. Joe Stimson 20. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 21. Jackson Topine.

That Bulldogs backline is barely recognisable next to their pre-season predicted lineup, with Corey Allan injured, DWZ off to the Warriors and Kyle Flanagan demoted. Aaron Schoupp has been solid since his debut and Jake Averillo found some good form last week, but strike power has been a major issue for Canterbury all season long.

Jeremy Marshall-King made a big difference for the Bulldogs last week, being the closest they have to a specialist hooker he immediately offered a bit more threat around the ruck and better service. Combined with Jake Averillo’s newfound confidence the Bulldogs suddenly have a couple of attacking threats. They are a long way from the team that managed to get shut out three weeks in a row early in the season.

Intangibles

The early forecast is for a wet Sunday afternoon at Bankwest Stadium, though it shouldn’t change the Eels approach to the game a whole lot. As a ticket holder in the Cronin Stand I will be quite happy for the overcast weather, a 2pm start usually means spending the entire afternoon with the sun in your eyes.

Matt Cecchin is the referee, officiating only his second Eels clash in the last two years. The Bulldogs are 1-3 under Cecchin in the same period, but have played a few close games with him in the middle this year. I don’t anticipate him making much of a difference in this one.

One encouraging aspect of last weekend was how well the Eels took advantage of the one man advantage the sin-binning of Shawn Blore presented, scoring three quick tries. Though the crackdown has settled into a more balanced state, you’ll still end up taking a rest for sloppy high contact and playing with and against 12 men is becoming a crucial footballing skill. 

The Opposition

As somebody who does not hate myself, I haven’t watched a lot of Bulldogs football this year. I did however have a fantasy football game riding on some key players in the Dragons/Bulldogs clash last weekend and saw some decent things from the dogs. How much you can attribute the Canterbury performance to legitimate improvements versus just how poor the Dragons are we’ll probably find out this week, but there were some signs that the Bulldogs are on the up.

How good is Papa going? Buy of the century

Though it is a massive stretch to call it a comeback, the Bulldogs brief attempt to get back into the round 8 clash was sparked by Jake Averillo, who has continued his strong running form and loves to catch out lazy defenders on the fringe. Nathan Brown had one such effort along with Ryan Matterson that led to the Tigers first try last week, Averillo will be looking for those signs of fatigue from our middles late in the half. 

The forward pack will hang around if you let them, though players like Dylan Napa, Luke Thompson and Adam Elliott can be defensive liabilities with weak efforts in the middle of the park. Seumanufagai on the bench doesn’t mind an extra dig against the Eels, while Corey Waddell has a bit of ball playing that must be watched. I fully expect the Parramatta pack to dominate this one, but there are some threats to be accounted for. With that out of the way, this is one of the worst attacking teams in history and conceding more than two tries should be considered a bad day for the Eels defence. 

Defensively the Bulldogs are just bad, not all time bad. They have the leakiest middle defence in the NRL, and both edges are equally poor. The Katoa/Schoupp right edge is probably where Parramatta will attack first, with Sean Russell tasked with keeping his toes on the sideline ready to take a Clint Gutherson cutout pass. Schoupp is a big body that might struggle to contain the footwork of Waqa Blake, but just throwing good numbers at them should be enough to break the line. On the other side Cotric and Hopoate haven’t formed a great combination, but both are more experienced players and will need to be beaten with attacking shape. Dylan Brown will like his chances taking the line on out there.

The story

Anything less than a win is unacceptable here.

It really is that simple. Good teams don’t lose to bad teams in the 2021 edition of rugby league. Parramatta are a good team, Canterbury are a bad team. These matches are a chance to boost your for and against, not a chance for a potential upset. I expect a good Eels win and anything less than 20+ is leaving an opportunity on the table.

As usual, it will be driven through the middle of the park. Last time out Parramatta caught lazy efforts from the Bulldogs middle early, particularly Luke Thompson. Adam Elliott leads all forwards in try concedes and is another potential target on the edge. Hetherington and Napa have a bit of mongrel about them and might like their chances of riling up the Eels pack after seeing what happened when Tom Amone got away with giving RCG a facial last week, but the Canterbury middle should have no answers for the relentless march of the Parramatta forwards.

From there, you only need field position to beat the Dogs. They are fragile across the line, and while there have been some outliers of staunch on-line defence, particularly their win against the Sharks, usually they crumble at the first signs of decent shape and structure. Solid execution should be enough for Parramatta here, which hasn’t always been easy for a team that doesn’t mind spreading the ball across a flat footed line, but a few good runs from the forwards near the posts then finding Gutho linking up out wide will cause plenty of trouble.

I might take our opposition lightly, but I doubt the Eels do. I have faith they will back up their good efforts of the last two weeks with another strong performance, and put our old rivals away convincingly. The forwards will feast, particularly on the edges, and that should create more than enough chances for Parramatta to win the game. Maybe Brad Arthur will finally crack a smile in the press conference following this one. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 44 d Canterbury Bulldogs 6

Man of the Match: Isaiah Papali’i

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