Game Info

Date: Sunday, May 23, 2021

Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Adam Gee

Head-to-head: Played 143, Parramatta 54, Manly 85, Drawn 4

Odds: Eels $1.44 Sea Eagles $2.75

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Manly 22 d Parramatta 18, Brookvale Oval, R10 2020

Parramatta 19 d Manly 16, Bankwest Stadium, R4 2020

Parramatta 32 d Manly 16, Bankwest Stadium, R25 2019

Manly 36 d Parramatta 24, Brookvale Oval, R18 2019

Background

The 2021 Parramatta Eels are fast becoming whatever you want to make of them. Dominant attacking team that has put up 30+ in six of their last seven? That’s the Eels. Pretenders that aren’t ruthless enough to go on with the job when their opposition are there to be beaten? There’s shades of that too. A team that still needs to prove itself against the best opposition? This must translate to “beat Penrith”, because we’ve knocked off the Storm, Roosters and Raiders so far this year. We’ll get a chance at the mountain men soon enough. Beneficiaries of a soft draw? Well, that’s wrong, but it is something the Eels will have to deal with for as long as people continue to fall for Fox Sports preseason clickbait.

The truth is we know the Eels are good, but we don’t know if they are premiership good. The next two weeks present a good chance to vault into that discussion alongside Penrith and Melbourne, as the mighty Eels face the red hot Tommy Turbo plus twelve Sea Eagles followed by another recent bogey side, the South Sydney Rabbitohs. Two big challenges, two big opportunities, and if the good guys in Blue & Gold can win both games, it’s the end of their time cruising under the radar of NRL pundits, fans and opposition sides.

It starts with a Sunday afternoon classic in the making between bitter rivals. The filthy Silvertails are riding high on five wins from their last six, led by a man superlatives fail to adequately describe, Brad Parker Tom Trbojevic. Sunday afternoon footy, Manly and Parra, Tooth’s on tap and a full Bankwest Stadium baying for maroon and white blood. How do you feel?

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week, I advised punters to keep their coin in their pocket. I was nervous about the match, and in retrospect I reckon i was feeling the nerves on Jake Arthur’s behalf. He certainly showed no evidence of any jitters, and that calm demeanour was nothing new to anyone familiar with his play.

This week’s match is a fascinating study. I get the feeling it will be close and not so high scoring. Using 2020 as a form guide I’m venturing into the pick your own total market.

Take under 45.5 total match points for the match at the odds of $2.40. If you’re prepared to go lower those odds increase.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

How we look

At some point I might just link this preview to the Rugby League Eye Test every week and consider it a job well done, but his analysis this week of field position paints an incredible picture of the strengths of the 2021 Eels. The key takeaways are that Parramatta opponents are tackled in their own half more than any other team, and as a percentage of possession get fewer red zone opportunities than any other side. It’s tough to exploit questionable edge decision making when you never get close enough to the line to challenge it, and that has been the story of season 2021 for opponents of the Eels. Parramatta has controlled possession and has dominated field position. Those numbers are even more eye-popping in the second half, where Parramatta opponents spend 70% of their rucks in their own half and only 9.5% attacking the Eels line, both numbers best in the league by some margin.

The Moses kicking game has buried opponents in their own half this year (image credit Channel 9)

Manly sit at the opposite end of that graph, keeping opponents in their own half for 54% of plays compared to the Eels’ 65%, with 20% of opposition rucks coming inside the Manly red zone compared to 12% of Parramatta’s opponents. In the second half Manly are even worse, those numbers drop to 51% and 22%. What does it all mean? Expect a lot of this one to be played in the Manly half, especially later in the game. It won’t help against the dangers of long range freaks like Saab and Trbojevic, but if Parramatta can make this one a grind then odds are good they are winning.

To sprinkle in some of my own analysis, this confirms what we are seeing from Mitch Moses and his kicking game, particularly his skill in mid range kicks (the dreaded “mid field bomb”) that help the Eels bury opponents inside their own 20. It is fast becoming a critical part of the game, more so than clearing kicks and finding space, and Mitch is the best in the NRL at pinning teams deep in their own territory.

The speed and fitness of the Eels chase is demonstrated in those numbers too. Unfortunately fitness is not a sustainable edge in an NRL season, eventually everybody is “footy fit” but the control the Eels are taking of games is reflected in those second half numbers. It is reminiscent of how Penrith dominated last year, and while the Panthers have added some sparkling attack to their resolute defence in 2021, Parramatta is happy to continue the “boot to throat” footy and choke the life out of teams.

It has been nice not talking about the Eels right edge defence for most of 2021, but last week showed some worrying signs with the Warriors blowing several overlaps against the wall of Blake. The scramble defence remains strong, but I worry that structural deficiencies in the Eels edge defence have been papered over by their ability to keep opponents away from their attacking 20. The Warriors showed willingness to throw numbers at the edge from mid field and managed to find some cracks, but were also pressured into a lot of errors when they spread the ball without earning the right, and bombed a few chances when they broke through with ill-advised kicks. Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell won’t be making those mistakes in the coming weeks.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Jake Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Shaun Lane 16. Joey Lussick 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Ray Stone 19. Keegan Hipgrave 20. Haze Dunster 21. Jordan Rankin

Parramatta were good boys for the Magic Round crackdown they arguably inspired, avoiding the wrath of the judiciary following an unfortunate number of dangerous tackles on “severe punishment for dangerous tackles” weekend. It means the only change to the side is one of balance, with the lightly raced Ray Stone making way for a more pure dummy half replacement in Joey Lussick. With Will Smith out injured Brad Arthur has tried a few different ways of filling his utility position, but there just isn’t a match for the versatility Big Willy Style brings to the bench. I wouldn’t expect a long stint from Lussick this Sunday barring injury.

An impressive debut for Jake Arthur, cool calm and collected

It has been interesting to note that the emergence of Bryce Cartwright as a bench weapon has come at the expense of Nathan Brown, with Cyborg’s minutes dropping about 20 per game since Cartwright’s debut, and that excludes Brown’s injury shortened Bulldogs outing. Brown plays a valuable role as a middle distributor and defensive hitman, and it may be more than coincidence that the Bulldogs and Warriors both clawed their way back into the game once Brown was off the field. It will be very interesting to see if Brown spends so much time on the pine these next two weeks against much more fancied opposition.

Jake Arthur was impressive on debut, not overplaying his hand and not letting the Warriors early swarming on him dent his confidence or curtail his running game. He defended well and didn’t look out of place in first grade, delivering on the promise of poise and composure made by those that have followed his development closely. His support play was strong too, and it gifted Ryan Matterson his first meat pie of the year. I’ve already muted any Tweet or Facebook post with both “Dylan” and “Jake” in it to avoid the wave of spicy hot takes about our two young halves.

Manly

1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jason Saab 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Cade Cust 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Martin Taupau 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Josh Schuster 13. Jake Trbojevic. 14. Moses Suli 15. Zac Saddler 16. Sean Keppie 17. Toafofoa Sipley. 18. Ben Trbojevic 19. Tevita Funa 20. Christian Tuipulotu 21. Jorge Taufua.

Much of the “revenge game” factor has gone from this one as most of Manly’s ex-Eel brigade lay in the casualty ward. This includes Kieran Foran, Josh Aloiai and Andrew Davey, while Curtis Sironen, Dylan Walker, Jack Gosiewski and Morgan Boyle are also unavailable. Foran always loved a game against the Eels and won’t be missed by fans in Blue & Gold.

Jason Saab started the year as the worst first grade winger since Greg Smith, but Des Hasler stuck by his man and to his credit Saab has emerged in recent weeks into a strike weapon, and perhaps the fastest player in the NRL. Amazing what having a real threat at fullback instead of the ghost of Dylan Walker will do for the players out wide. Morgan Harper has quietly emerged as a quality centre, and Josh Schuster has been great since debuting in the back row. Maybe not Origin bolter great, but you don’t earn a nickname like “Spud” by being a deep thinker.

No, I don’t know what Moses Suli is doing on the bench either. 

Intangibles

Western Sydney has woken up to the bitter taste of winter most of this week, but for Sunday afternoon football it should be nice and dry at Bankwest. It will be another bumper crowd based on the turnout for the Roosters game two weeks back, as you would expect for a battle between bitter rivals on a Sunday afternoon. How good is having full stands at the footy again?

Adam Gee is the referee, the Eels are 2-0 under him this year while Manly are 1-2 over the last two years, having 40 put on them by the Warriors and Sharks, then most recently putting 40 on the Tigers. Gee probably didn’t have much to do with any of that. More pertinent is the high contact crackdown, which looks to enter an unprecedented second week. The NRL has done a lot of doubling down following Magic Round, but talk is cheap and Peter V’landys isn’t the type to publicly back down from anything. We’ll know by Sunday if the referees are being a little more lenient on accidental contact, especially accidental “chest to head of a man on his knees” contact. 

Teams will need to learn to defend with 12 men though, it will happen to us all, but just as importantly teams need to learn to attack 12 man defensive lines effectively. Last night we saw the Cowboys hold out impressively with 11 men, and considering some of the Eels efforts defending against 13 out wide this year and last, I’m concerned about any time we spend a man down.

The Opposition

How does a team go from getting beaten by 40 each week to a finals contender on the back of one man? Tom Trbojevic is one heck of a player, but the threat he presents is just as dangerous as the plays he makes, and that is what has made Manly’s early also-rans suddenly look like world beaters. Dylan Walker was a negative value at fullback, killing plays, lazy in his efforts and poor defensively. Trbojevic draws attention, creates space and then has the ability to use that space to put his teammates away. Just to top it all off, he’s always in the right spot in support. He’s infuriatingly good.

Here’s hoping he has another of his Greg Smith games

Jason Saab is the primary beneficiary of his return. Trbojevic draws in the defence wherever he pops up, and that space gives the unnaturally speedy Saab the extra space he needs to exploit that advantage. Trbojevic loves to pop up on that right side, and both Saab and Morgan Harper have blossomed with the one-on-one chances Turbo’s return has afforded them.

Jake Trbojevic has looked decidedly mortal since the six-again came in, with many attributing his decline to a one-dimensional play style. It may just have been that most of the six-again era he has played without his brother, who thrives on the edge space created by Jake compressing the defence then passing out back. It might be a popular move in the NRL these days (look at Nathan Brown and Junior Paulo and their ballplaying), but Jake is the original (of this era, anyway) and his deep digs into the line create one-on-one chances out wide for Tom. In mid field the Eels would do well to just let Jake get his when he runs and retain their edge discipline, he isn’t going far even if he pokes his head through the line, but that isn’t an option defending in the red zone where Tom will be deadly given one-on-one space.

The unheralded names in the Sea Eagles pack are also starting to develop into strong players. Josh Schuster has a ballplayers nous and runs great lines and angles, his debut may not have come in the halves as was thought but he is a natural edge attacker. Taniela Paseka has stepped up with Addin Fonua-Blake leaving, he and Martin Taupau are prolific offloaders this year and Parramatta has had some issues shutting down second phase play, sitting fifth worst in the NRL for ineffective tackles. 

Manly are worst in the NRL for errors and lap the field for handling errors, numbers that likely contribute to their near league worst ranking for keeping their opponents in their own half we talked about earlier. Giving Parramatta easy possession hasn’t gone too well for many opponents this year, so hopefully the butterfingers are on full display from the Sea Eagles this Sunday. 

The story

Manly presents a real danger to the Eels here. They have speed and skill out wide and a knack for scoring long range tries that evades Parramatta’s grinding tactics that were so successful against the Roosters, Broncos and Sharks. They offload well, have forwards that can move the ball wide and are led around the park by one of the elite halfbacks in Daly Cherry-Evans. They’ve set themselves up as underdogs all week, and Des Hasler is primed to unleash a classic Manly ambush.

I’m expecting a big day from Nathan Brown

Parramatta will take comfort in the blueprint provided by the Panthers in how to beat Turbo Manly. Sure, the Sea Eagles cracked a few long range tries against Penrith, but largely the Panthers executed through the middle of the park and took advantage of the close range chances they earned. The Manly edges are equal opportunity try conceders, and while Maika Sivo won’t want to see Jason Saab with open space near him, he will love the chance to run at the rangey winger from ten out. Blake Ferguson would similarly like to find himself with a view of the corner against Reuben Garrick, though his finishing of late hasn’t been as crisp as fans are used to.

The result will come down to whether Manly can create enough chunk plays to counter the Eels relentless middle march. There isn’t anybody in the Parramatta side that can match Jason Saab for speed, and the team need to be aware of Manly exploiting that as they did against the Warriors with a long range kick. Maika Sivo can’t show him any sideline even in midfield play. Shutting down second phase play that puts the defence on the back foot will be crucial, as that is when Tom Trbojevic is going to be able to ask questions of the edges. If Parramatta spend much time backpedalling you’ll be hearing Gus droning on about speed all afternoon. 

Parramatta has so many weapons in this side that I can’t tip against them here. Mitch Moses turned on his running game last week to create two tries, and the Eels wide spread is hard to defend if the middle has compressed, especially when Maika Sivo doesn’t actually need space to score. Expect some wrinkles after Clint Gutherson stuck to his cutout ball to Sivo last week to the point of predictability, though getting Sivo one-on-one is still the fastest way to Parramatta points. Then you have Reed Mahoney playing the ruck like a fiddle, his tune attracting the attention of Queensland selectors and earning an endorsement from Cam Smith. Normally I wouldn’t trust a thing coming out of Smith’s mouth, but it isn’t like Queenslanders to muck around about their Origin team.

It’ll be a cracker of a game, but like the Toohey’s ad says: “Manly’s coming back, too bad they blew it”. Here’s hoping they blow another one this weekend. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 32 d Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 22

Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses

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