The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 10, 2021: Eels vs Warriors

Game Info

Date: Sunday, May 16, 2021

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Kick Off: 1:50PM AEST

Referee: Ashley Klein

Head-to-head: Played 41, Parramatta 23, New Zealand 18

Odds: Eels $1.37 Warriors $3.10

Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta 24 d New Zealand 18, Central Coast Stadium, R17 2020

Parramatta 24 d New Zealand 22, Bankwest Stadium, R19 2019

New Zealand 24 d Parramatta 14, Stadium Australia, R11 2018

Parramatta 32 d New Zealand 24, Stadium Australia, R13 2017

Background

Parramatta continued their strong 2021 form last round, conquering another bogey team in the Sydney Roosters off the back of suffocating possession numbers and a grinding gameplan. The post-match criticism of the Eels attack and general lack of respect for the second placed 8-1 Eels side is just further indication that anything Parramatta does before week two of the semi finals means exactly nothing, but since we’re four months away from that us fans may as well enjoy these big wins.

Round 10 of the Eels’ 26 week pre-season campaign sees them travelling to Suncorp for Magic Round where they face the New Zealand Warriors. It is time to create some positive Magic Round memories for Parramatta fans, as I have a strange black hole where the memory of the last one should be. Can’t have been very memorable.

The Warriors have played the Eels tough in recent times, and probably feel a touch aggrieved to not have taken more than one of the last four clashes between the teams. They’re clinging to the last spot in the top eight right now and have made a habit of a win-loss-win-loss pattern in 2021 and are due a win. Parramatta will certainly make it tough for them, but let’s take a look at their chances.

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week, I confidently expected a big performance from Mitch Moses in an Eels victory. That part was correct. However, the tip of Moses to score a try in an Eels win didn’t get up. Such is the risk of looking for longer value in the punt.

This week is very different to the point that I regard this match as a “look on” event..

There are just too many variables. I am expecting an Eels win based on form, but this sin bin and send off edict has me a little nervous. It’s already reared its head in the Friday night games, and I’m on edge about referee responses to the instruction.

Coupled that with different routines around game preparation this week, and I simply believe that it’s a week to keep your coin in your pocket.

Sixties

How we look

If you get your opinions on football from commentators (and you really shouldn’t) then you are probably thinking that the Eels are an ordinary attacking side. Despite being only the second team in three years to put 30+ on the Roosters, Parramatta was accused of playing too sideways against the tough Sydney defence. Sure, it took a lot of possession and a lot of tackles in the attacking quarter to get those points, but it was a brutal middle clash and Parramatta played out a similar gameplan as the one used to beat the Sharks; tire them out and come home strong. Just because Melbourne and Penrith are doing it easy against substandard or undermanned opposition doesn’t mean Parramatta are struggling because they can’t put 50+ on the best defensive team of the last five years.

Never doubted the man for a second

It’s officially time to jump into the Carty Party, as Bryce Cartwright continued his stunning career revival in Blue & Gold with a two try effort against the Roosters. He’s showing up everywhere in support, linking well with the backs and most importantly, I haven’t noticed him in defence at all. He’s playing straight and earning the right to be a playmaker, he’s popping up all over the field and has been especially damaging on kicks and loose plays. He adds another dimension to the Eels attack and a bit of X-factor to a team that is otherwise dutifully crafting their scoring opportunities and points.

Overall the Eels look pretty good. Without Dylan Brown for a few weeks, the team may go into a bit of a holding pattern and play the same footy that has got the job done the last month: winning the middle, Mitchell Moses playing a game manager role, and pressuring the opposition until the cracks appear. The structured attack has been good, finding space for the wingers and edge players to work their magic, and the forwards are so good that opportunities will come simply from their work in the middle. With Clint Gutherson, Bryce Cartwright and now Jake Arthur sniffing around in support, simple might not get the talking heads salivating but it will continue to get Parramatta all important wins. Under the radar is just fine by me.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Jake Arthur 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Shaun Lane 16. Ray Stone 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Joey Lussick 19. Keegan Hipgrave 20. Haze Dunster 21. Jordan Rankin

Bubble shenanigans or not, it is a bit of a surprise to see Jake Arthur stepping up to first grade in place of the suspended Dylan Brown. Arthur has handled his short time in NSW Cup well, leading the team around the park, showing up everywhere in support and most importantly, looking good defending against bigger men. The stunning debut of Sam Walker might have encouraged Brad Arthur to follow the “if you are good enough, you are old enough” policy with his son, but don’t expect a Walker-esque impact from Arthur Junior. A few first grade games will be good for his development, but he is very early in that development and expectations should be tempered.

All eyes will be on Waqa and his defensive reads

Waqa Blake returns from injury to replace another suspendee, Marata Niukore, relieving BA of a difficult decision following Simba’s impressive form in the centres. All eyes will be on Blake’s defence, as the right edge has been noticeably tighter than last year with the Niukore/Ferguson combination. He might be a touch underdone after an extended layoff for a calf injury, but he will be looking forward to putting some footwork on the inexperienced Warriors edge combinations.

Question marks remain over Nathan Brown and particularly Reed Mahoney, Brown should be right to go but if Reed is rested after a concussion then expect a combination of Ray Stone and Joey Lussick to step in at rake. Reed would be a huge loss, but Lussick has proven a hard worker with a bit of spark about him in his time in NSW Cup and is a solid replacement for a week or two. Ray Stone is the better defensive option, but his service isn’t really up to scratch for first grade and he doesn’t have the nous of Reed that has proven so deadly close to the line this year. Turns out there is more to a successful crash ball than just throwing a pass, and Reed has figured out that magic this season.

New Zealand

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Ed Kosi 3. Adam Pompey 4. Rocco Berry 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Chanel Harris-Tavita 8. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 9. Wayde Egan 10. Kane Evans 11. Josh Curran 12. Ben Murdoch-Masila 13. Tohu Harris. 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Leeson Ah Mau 16. Bunty Afoa 17. Reece Walsh. 18. Bayley Sironen 20. Jack Murchie 21. Eliesa Katoa 22. Euan Aitken. 

There isn’t much left of the Warriors starting three-quarter line, with David Fusitu’a and Peta Hiku out long term while Euan Aitken is coming back through the reserves. Big name signing Addin Fonua-Blake is also out, giving Kane Evans a start in his revenge game against the Eels. I’m sure we’re all shaking in our boots at the inevitable knock-on trying to offload, give away a six again, arm tackle on a big man to concede a try combination that he is so fondly remembered for.

Digs at Kane Evans aside, this is still a solid forward pack, with a bit of punch off the bench alongside the electric young playmaker Reece Walsh. Walsh has defended like an underdone 18 year old at times, but he also adds a level of spark to the Warriors attack that they haven’t had since Shaun Johnson left. He’ll be out to prove a point when he comes on the field, and tired forwards will need to both be wary and target him mercilessly with ball in hand.

Intangibles

It will be clear and mild for Magic Round, but the Suncorp Stadium surface is once again the biggest concern as it crumbled under a single game of rugby union last weekend and has been soaked through with rain for the last few days. Two years ago the surface held up just fine over eight matches, but being one of the last games of the weekend, we could be playing on a bit of a mess. One blessing is being the first game of the Sunday, meaning ground staff will have worked around the clock to get things back in order. Here’s praying for no injuries.

We’ve drawn Ashley Klein for the third time this season, but the bigger worry than the quality of his officiating will be how the referees will respond to last week’s blast after a failed crackdown on six-again and head contact. Another crackdown on high contact has been announced, and it sounds like the NRL intends to enforce this one. One more and I’m going to have to add a “Crackdown Watch” section to this preview.

Marata Niukore was particularly lucky to avoid a sin binning for awkward head contact last week, and that kind of tackle is exactly what the NRL is looking to stamp out. The onus is on defenders to avoid contact with the head now, so expect any loose contact to be met with a harsh response. Accidental contact will no longer matter, so I’d expect a lot of sin bins over the weekend. There is some ambiguity in the crackdown wording, so referees will still be prone to inconsistency, but we’ll know by Sunday how serious this version of the player safety crackdown will be.

Both teams are reasonably well supported up in Queensland, but the Warriors are still the second favourite team of just about everyone in this pandemic world, and the locals that don’t bleed Blue & Gold probably aren’t too fond of the hidings the Eels have given the Broncos, so expect a somewhat hostile “neutral” crowd. At least the Eels haven’t lost a home game for this one.

The Opposition

The Warriors have played a controlling brand of football in 2021, racking up a couple of near perfect completion rates on their way to grinding wins. They lead the NRL in completion percentage, but their running metres and other attacking numbers are relatively mild considering their discipline. They don’t miss a lot of tackles, don’t make ineffective tackles, but only a few players are real ball running threats.

Thank Sterlo this will likely be the last time we see RTS is opposition colours

The main man is Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who continues to be a dynamic, tackle breaking ball runner. He’s terrorised Parramatta before, and while he isn’t as immediately dangerous as a Tedesco or Papenhuyzen, he is a hard man to tackle and is asked to do an awful lot of work for the Warriors at both ends of the field. Similarly, Ken Maumalo is earning his pay as a runner out of his own half, ensuring the Warriors start sets on the front foot. The Eels kicking game and kick-chase have been excellent this year, and it would be a bad week for that to falter.

Tohu Harris is the man the middle runs through, used as a distributor as well as a hard runner and ever dangerous decoy. He will draw in numbers and create space on the edges, and is a handful as a runner himself. The other Warriors forwards are hardly slouches, but Harris is the man that must be contained. 

There will be a bit more spice to this Warriors team than usual, as Chanel Harris-Tavita returns and has another week working alongside Reece Walsh to unlock the Warriors at times, pedestrian attack. Both men should be targeted by ball runners, alongside Kodi Nikorima and Wayde Egan who can fall off a tackle. The Warriors have one of the better defensive middles in the NRL, but opponents have found success attacking both flanks, likely due to the continual shuffling of combinations out wide. Expect Isaiah Papali’i to be testing the edges out early in his own revenge game.

The story

The Warriors are certainly going to make Parramatta work for this one. They don’t give away cheap ball, but the Eels have a far more aggressive and impressive middle that should be able to get on top in an extended arm wrestle. As long as Parramatta continue to be disciplined and patient, they should be able to find opportunities. This is a big game for Mitchell Moses, who has been cool, calm and collected for most of this year with his choice of kicks and directing the team around the park. 

Parramatta has put the offload away somewhat in 2021, and I don’t expect it to come back in this one against a disciplined opposition. The Eels are more conservative because they can be, straight running and good play-the-balls has proven more than effective enough against all comers. With Waqa back and defending next to an 18 year old rookie you have to think the right edge will be tested, making field position even more important than usual and limiting the chances for the Warriors to run shape. The Roosters scored with alarming frequency when given chances last week, limiting those chances will be very important here.

A lot on this man’s shoulders this weekend, as usual

The path to a Warriors win will be through a mix of individual brilliance and holding on in that grind. Reece Walsh, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Kodi Nikorima are all capable of great individual plays, and a couple of early breakthroughs and sending Parramatta into panic football would see most confident of a New Zealand upset. In saying that, the Eels are an elite second half team, and even without being able to train together properly this week they should be well conditioned and able to push over in the final quarter should they get a fair shake of the arm wrestle.

The interrupted buildup, the rookie half, potential injuries to key players, it is easy to see why, in an otherwise fairly chalk round, people are tipping the Warriors for the upset. I’m not seeing it though. Parramatta are getting the job done in 2021, and a light training week without opposed sessions (or their five eighth) isn’t going to slow them down. It’s time to make some magic. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 28 New Zealand Warriors 12

Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson

 

Gol

 

 

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11 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 10, 2021: Eels vs Warriors

  1. Zero58

    I watched both matches last night and the most dominant person on the pitch was the referee. This crackdown has turned into an overreaction and will ruin the game as a spectacle. Actually some of the sin bibs were quite pathetic. Clearly the referee will decide who will win. Expect a number of complaints after this round is finished. The Broncos Manly match was ruined by Sutton. Calling for a penalty at the other end of the field after six tackles was farcical. Two sin bins in two minutes was not a good look.
    If this continues it will turn the game into touch footy. We dont like dirty play but we do love the aggressive tough games. A couple of Storm players have better take notice.
    Not that I have any sympathy for either team who are both bottom of barrel for me but that Sutton is our leading referee is somewhat puzzling.
    Some teams are really going to struggle with this crackdown.
    I don’t think Parra will because they play a fast game but, Waqa is a problem with his tendency to go high to smother. Reed Mahoney will be great he is too small to go high and has a great tackle technique.
    Parra should win. The Warriors are a tough team to beat when on their game. They have good ball control but, go walkabout and lose focus.
    This is a game for Cartwright and his skill set Their dangerman is their fullback
    Parra should win and will but I am worried about the man in the middle
    I go with Gol 28 – 12
    I think Parra defence is now to organized and will hold. It will be tough and close but, in the end comfortable.
    MOM Cartwright.

    1. Mr controversy aka rev

      Zero the refs are not to blame it’s Mr Vlandy’s he has #ucked our game right up. Greatest game on earth no more. Greatest joke more likely. Cya NRL.

  2. Colin Hussey

    I only watched some of the mules vses gulls night, as I thought and found playing solatair being more enjoyable to watch.

    Whoever wins this game will be decided by whether Klein shows a degree of common sense (not that he’s ever been inclined that way when reffing the eels) in his calls, however the bigger call should come from the 3 chiefs of the NRL and call time or at least make some sensible decisions regarding the game killing reactionary that were on show yesterday.

    In their game though Pride will be the referee for them and no decision changes including the bunker challenge will be allowed.

    We had a pretty good game to watch up until round 10 of this year, where it will be next week as I cannot see changes for this round, is where RL itself will win out or not.

    Oh! eels by 8

  3. Mr controversy aka rev

    After watching the drama that fool Mr Vlandy’s has made I’m really thinking of turning my back on the game. Really this guy should stick with horse racing. Piss off from the NRL Mr Vlandy’s n the South African guy his puppet. Like really this guy has no clue about rugby league none wats so ever. I’ll always love my team but i hate the NRL it’s becoming a big joke

  4. BDon

    Tks Gol. It’s that high completion/low error thing that makes me nervous here, plus Marata’s absence. Maybe the Warriors are due for a lapse, but as you say Gol, composure will be our real friend.

    1. John Eel

      BDon have some confidence.

      I appreciate your input on this site but this is the best pack of forwards we have had in some time. At full strength we have the best bench in the NRL.

      But the best part is that everyone is waiting for us to fall over. Like the Roosters last week teams are not taking us seriously.

  5. Shelley

    For someone who loves my Eels I can honestly say I would be happy with us to forfeit. After watching the Cowboys being slaughtered because Tedesco slipped over I fear for us tomorrow. Klein is going to murder us.Nathan Brown should just start the game in the sin bin. Vlandy’s and his ego has destroyed my love for this game. I am over it, I lasted every game and went to every home game in the 2018 season but this is a farce. The men in suits at Phillips Street have a lot to answer for.
    In saying that I wish young Jake all the best. Play well young man, too bad the players are not the show this week.

    1. BDon

      Just watched Burr/Tedesco 10 times, a late, sharp drop/forward lurch by Tedesco caused that high contact. His head hit Burr’s shoulder. Burr had 3 other options 1) let him run through 2) just run into him with arms down 3) shoulder into midsection and let him get the ball away.
      Could the NRL be transparent and let us know exactly what has been instructed to referees. Or is this a spat between Head Office and Referees where only the game suffers?

      1. John Eel

        BDon I have a silly question for you. Should a defender go in for a tackle and get his head in the wrong place, cops a hip or knee from the ball runner and gets a concussion.

        Will the ball runner be sent to the sin bin or worse sent off?

        This is as silly as defenders being sent to the sin bin when ball runners drop their centre of gravity to avoid being tackled and they get a concussion

        PS: Outstanding debut for Jake today. So happy for him.

        1. BDon

          Or the team mate head clash, sent off for an offence against your own team. If we are going to remove context and intent from tackle adjudication, the door opens for strange things.

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