Game Info
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020
Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta
Kick Off: 7:35PM AEST
Referee: Ben Cummins
Head-to-head: Played 40, Parramatta 24, Wests 15, Drawn 1
Odds: Eels $1.33 Wests $3.30
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo
Last Four Encounters:
Eels 26 d Tigers 16, Bankwest Stadium, R11 2020
Eels 30 d Tigers 18, Bankwest Stadium, R17 2019
Eels 51 d Tigers 6, Bankwest Stadium, R6 2019
Eels 24 d Tigers 22, Stadium Australia, R8 2018
Background
It wasn’t the return to form many fans hoped for, but the Eels comfortable win over the Broncos last weekend showed some promising signs for a Parramatta finals revival. The Eels won’t be a premiership favourite come October, but with a strong middle defence, good scramble and some attacking X factor, they won’t be an easy team to beat.
The last step before that finals run is a match against the Tigers, a Wests home game at Bankwest Stadium after the Tigers couldn’t manage to move this fixture to Leichhardt to give Benji Marshall and Chris Lawrence a proper home farewell. Considering the way the Tigers have treated Benji in the last month or two, this is a fitting way for his Tigers career to end. The Tigers are coming off Melbourne putting 50 on them, and since the last time these teams played, they have only a one point win against the Bulldogs and a miracle comeback against a depleted Sea Eagles to go with six losses by an average of 20 points.
Wests don’t have a lot to play for here. Benji and Lawrence are incredible clubmen, but Marshall is getting the shaft and despite being beloved by his teammates, “doing it for Benji” probably won’t be enough for the Tigers. If they couldn’t take down a “win and in” last round finals eliminator last year against the Sharks, at Leichhardt, I don’t see them rising to any occasion, especially not against a Parramatta side they’ve had a lot of trouble with in recent clashes.
At this point, Parramatta aren’t going to make that huge attacking leap that fans have been hoping for. Now it is about just getting the job done, hopefully without injury, and looking good enough that fans have hope that a strong defensive effort and some freak individuals can get the job done. In round 8 we were thinking premierships, but after three months of mediocre football and disjointed attack, expectations for fans are starting to settle at more modest levels. The Eels goal in this game is to make sure those expectations don’t drop any further.
What happened last time
Reg went beast mode last time out, including a memorable 50 metre try.
It wasn’t a pretty win, but the Eels overcame a shocking start to wrestle the game away from the Tigers in the middle stages and never let it go, taking the contest 26-16. This was in the prime of Reg the Killer, with RCG dominating through the middle, while Nathan Brown got into a one on one battle with rookie forward Shawn Blore, who has been recalled just to get his second round with the Terminator.
This was also the start of some anti-Eels sentiment around rugby league bubbling to the surface, from some terrible, almost celebratory coverage of Ryan Matterson being knocked out when tackling Russel Packer, to the outright celebration of the injury by certain Tigers fans. I appreciate there might be a bit of bad blood on their side thanks to Moses and Matto joining the Eels directly from Wests, but celebrating injuries is low.
Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)
After a run of outs, the punting tip finally delivered in the penultimate round of this season’s premiership.
However, it was left to Yoko to produce the goods after my confidence had taken a beating in recent week. After being handed the reins for the punting tip, she duly saluted in selecting the Broncos as a certainty with 19.5 points start.
Full of bravado, she’s opted for the same market this week but selected the Eels. Yoko believes that the Eels will cover the 8.5 start given to the Tigers and you’ll collect the $1.90 odds offered in this line market.
Once again, happy and responsible punting everyone!
Teams
Parramatta
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Jai Field 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Will Smith 15. Andrew Davey 16. Kane Evans 17. Oregon Kaufusi. 18. Haze Dunster 19. Brad Takairangi 20. George Jennings 21. Daniel Alvaro
No changes for the Eels, with Brad Takairangi taking the place of Tigers bound Stefano Utoikamanu being the only shift in the reserves. With a must win to ensure a spot in the top four, Brad Arthur is not afforded the luxury of resting stars and ruining Supercoach finals like Ricky Stuart or Craig Bellamy have done.
I would not expect the Eels late changes last week to be repeated, though coming from the bench did light a bit of a fire under Shaun Lane. “The bench” is still regarded as a bit of a demotion for forwards, but there is some merit in a staggering of RCG and Junior Paulo’s minutes to keep a constant pressure on the opposition. Will Smith is doing enough to hold that long troublesome Eels bench utility spot, and I have to begrudgingly admit Kane Evans wasn’t bad last week too.
Wests
1. Adam Doueihi 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tommy Talau 4. Chris Lawrence 5. Asu Kepaoa 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Zane Musgrove 9. Harry Grant 10. Thomas Mikaele 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal. 14. Matthew Eisenhuth 15. Elijah Taylor 16. Shawn Blore 17. Michael Chee-Kam. 18. Alex Seyfarth 19. Jacob Liddle 20. Josh Reynolds 21. Joseph Leilua.
David Nofoaluma is the big in for the Tigers after limping off the field last weekend. If he isn’t right to go then it looks like Joey Leilua will get a reprieve from the reserves, shifting Talau back out to the wing. Given the try scoring title is in reach and he is somehow being talked about for Origin despite letting in tries at a rate Waqa Blake would be jealous of, he will be given every chance to play.
Shawn Blore has been recalled, fittingly since his only good first grade game came against the Eels. Prop and former Eel Josh Aloiai went down last week for the season, joining Russell Packer and Sam McIntyre on the sidelines. Moses Mbye is also out, but the Tigers really don’t miss him.
It is good to see Michael Chee-Kam making his return to footy after suffering one of the scariest injuries I’ve seen on a football field the last time these two teams played. I don’t want to see the Tigers succeed in this one, but I hope he has a good return.
Intangibles
As one of the few games that means anything this round, we get one of the top refs in the game in Ben Cummins. This year the Eels are four from five under Cummins and the Tigers without a win in three games, but if he is the difference in this one it is completely on the Eels for letting the game get that close.
It is looking like a cold but dry Saturday night at Bankwest, so expect slippery conditions but mercifully no rain. The Eels attack has been so clunky that weather isn’t the only reason Parramatta hasn’t scored many points, but they’ve played an awful lot of wet weather footy this year. It is a Tigers home game and their members will make up most of the 7,500 crowd that will be allowed, but tickets did go on sale to Eels members, so expect some of the Blue & Gold army to be in strong voice out there. It’ll be nice considering how many away supporters managed to make Eels home games this year. You’d think when there are more members than there are seats at the ground that you’d never see an opposition jersey at the ground, but there were plenty of Souths and Dragons fans at both of those losses. Here’s hoping we can give some of that back to the Tigers this weekend.
The game
Are the Eels making up the numbers in the finals? Punters would say yes, as Parramatta’s premiership odds have drifted from as low as $5.50 all the way out to $23 or higher in some markets. If they don’t win this game, you’ll be able to write your own ticket for an Eels title.
Parramatta needs that top four finish, and more specifically that assurance of playing in the second week of the finals. That is when it is expected Dylan Brown and Marata Niukore will return to the side, two important pieces to the Eels chances. We know why Dylan is important; his running game is a huge threat, he is a defensive rock and he plays with an infectious confidence that is just what a side that has lost some of its self belief needs. Marata has quietly become one of the best bench weapons in the game, a hard runner with some real edge to him, a strong defender and a great change of pace option coming on for RCG, Junior or even Nathan Brown. The heart-in-your-mouth stuff we get from Kane Evans just further highlights why a guy like Simba is so important, there might be a drop in offloads but there is no drop in momentum when he comes on for the starters.
More of this on Saturday please Mitch.
But what about this game? Well Parramatta just needs to survive it. Get in, get a win, don’t get hurt, sing the song, get out. Don’t get dragged into any funny stuff with over aggressive rookies, don’t let a team that should play the first 20 minutes with a lot of emotion get a roll on or get under their skin, and whatever you do don’t drop your hips in a tackle.
The attack shown against the Broncos will be enough to get the job done here, especially as the team managed to find ways to get Clint Gutherson into the attacking line with some space. Space is all the team will need to break through the fragile Tigers edges. Kepaoa had one of the more unfortunate defensive debuts in recent memory, Chris Lawrence is a good positional and technical defender but has limited speed and lateral agility, plus hasn’t played centre regularly since Tony Abbott was prime minister. Nofoaluma is well noted as a horrible positional defender, too. Just get the outside men some space to work and much like last time, the points will come.
The battle in the middle should be a no contest. If this was a boxing match, you’d need to sail an hour out to sea for it to be sanctioned. Don’t confuse Luciano Leilua barging over off a forward pass to score last time as him having a big day, though he is the most dangerous of a low impact Tigers pack. Luke Garner is a line runner who loves a missed tackle, Twal is a high motor tacklebot, while Mikaele and Musgrove continue to be more potential than performance. The bench will be pinning its hopes on Shawn Blore taking on Nathan Brown once again, and I guess Elijah Taylor and Matt Eisenhuth doing a lot of inspirational tackling. You’d have to go back to junior football to find an inspirational run from either man.
The only real concern is Harry Grant, who caused about 20 minutes of problems last time these teams played. Once the Eels got on the front foot Grant was suddenly ineffective, and he noticeably gassed after being involved in everything early on. Will he be inspired in his last appearance in Tigers colours, or can he not wait to get out of there? With the Tigers well beaten most weeks he hasn’t been getting the buzz he was early in the year (remember when he was winning the Dally M?), and it is hard for any hooker to do well behind a beaten pack.
Benji should have a good game, but he played well last time as well and it didn’t make a difference. He’s been great as the Tigers only real point of attack, Luke Brooks certainly doesn’t help him much. Adam Doueihi can have moments of strong play but remember when Reagan Campbell-Gillard ran 50 metres, stepped the fullback and scored? Doueihi was that fullback. When Mitch Moses chipped for himself and scored? Doueihi was the fullback nowhere near in position for that to happen.
The Tigers need to lift and the Eels need to be down for the upset to happen. Can the Tigers lift? Maybe, I mean, Benji is their favourite son, Lawrence is a long time club hero and one of their few Tigers to ever play for Australia. Will the Eels show up? With the top four on the line and finals momentum desperately needed, you would bloody hope so. It won’t be a walk in the park, but by the end it should be convincing.
Go you Eels!
Prediction: Parramatta Eels 22 Wests Tigers 12
Man of the Match: Mitchell Moses
A walk in the park followed by a picnic and a piece of cake.
Has Dylan been spotted at training?maybe running, without a moon boot?How is he travelling?any news.?
Yes mate. Watched. He’s well into the rehab process. They initially suggested second week of finals and I would say that’s a fair estimate.
Gol, not sure that some of your presentation inspires a lot of confidence, especially in parts of your background intro, the other aspect of the two paragraphs that start opposite Mitches, scream pic, is a bit concerning as it gives an impression of being a bit Lasse Fair, meaning all the eels have to do is to turn up and the points are guaranteed against the Tigs.
Any hint of taking the game lightly would be a real sucker punch for the team who need this win and to win well heading into the pointy head of the season.
It is more that I have faith the team will turn up with the right mindset for such an important game, and if they do, they’ll win.
The listed referee is Ben Cummins (not Gerard Sutton).
Oops, these guys are all starting to blend into one another. Will fix when I get the chance, cheers.
Sorted.
“More modest” expectations is very subtle sixties! I’m anticipating more impact from the forwards, more involvement from the backs and more direction from the halves – a step up on last weeks progress. It would make sense for BA to play around with the starting lineup again given the success of last week and the # of players other teams r resting.
Hey DDay, I wish I could take credit for the superb preview but it’s Gol’s fine work. I’ve simply provided the dubious punting tip section. I heard BA hint at a late change or two in a radio interview with Jimmy Smith and Joel Caine
“More modest” expectations is very subtle sixties! I’m anticipating more impact from the forwards, more involvement from the backs and more direction from the halves – a step up on last weeks progress. It would make sense for BA to play around with the starting lineup again given the success of last week and the # of players other teams r resting.
I would rather Moses play his way into the game than try to win it in the first 15 minutes. If there is a plan to look for pressure through early points, he and others have to concentrate hard on their execution, no miracle plays and no passes into bad positioning and mistimed runs, we seem to push the plays regardless. If we can’t find a way to be composed, reduce errors, build pressure, games will be pot luck, seat of the pants, heart attack material.
Composure and patience – very true
The expression mediocre belongs to the bottom two teams particularly the one running last.
I cannot accept that expression for the Eels.
Disappointing maybe but not mediocre.
A team sitting fourth – mediocre?
What would one say about the teams outside the top six – pathetic! No!
Only for the team running last and it really fits.
Parra have struggled certainly and yet have managed to stay in the top four.
East are level but they are brilliant! Really?
Please – coin a more positive thought to describe the last eight weeks.
I think you can use mediocre and average fairly interchangeably, and average seems like a good description for a team that sits in the top three in defence and bottom three in attack for the last ten weeks. I’ve certainly had a very average time watching the Eels since they beat the Cowboys.
There is plenty of positivity around the Eels at TCT, but we’re realistic as well. The first eight weeks of the season showed a premiership winning standard of footy that I’d like to hold the team to through the rest of the year. Compared to that, we’ve been very, very average.
Good point. Form is required at the end of the year, not the start. Look at the dragons, always starting well and then not even making the finals. I hope we find our form.
Thanks.
I can say I am quite realistic but, if we were down the bottom of the ladder then mediocre fits.
Average is okay but, you know winning is good and as Mr Sixties wrote 75 percent is, well, above average.
I really enjoy your pregame posts – they build expectation and excitement for the game but, I believe sometimes you allow some negative personal thoughts to sneak in.
Many may agree with you but, for me – mediocre – that was a bit harsh.
Please don’t take this personally and I encourage you to keep up the very good and excellent descriptive work.
It’s a bit of a dilemma – we should be confident going into this game, and we should be up for it given what’s on the line. I think the risk is that we’re over-enthusiastic and push too hard, particularly early. Stick to the model that was winning us games early in the year – defend hard for the first twenty, and roll over them with greater fitness (and skill) after that. I’ll be gutted if we lose this, especially if the Raiders jag a win. Despite the struggles of the past two months, it feels like we deserve top four, having been there all season.
I managed to score a ticket, so I’ll be there with bells on (or at least, my Parra jersey and flag). I’ve been surprised at earlier games that we hadn’t sold them out with members, but I know of people who aren’t going because of the covid risk, even though they’re quite healthy themselves. Fingers crossed I’ve got a few buddies to make some noise with on Saturday, and we get a few more games in with bigger crowds.
I believe that it wasn’t a case of tickets not being taken up Wilhelmina, but rather people taking the tickets and then not fronting on the night.
Good preview Gol.
Your assessment of individuals was pretty astute I thought and the idea of Shawn Sheep getting up to do battle with Brown the elder is just Madge clutching at straws to fill the #17 jersey with some hope outside the square.
Go Parra. I have no idea what the score might be though?
Clutching at straws is a great way to put it. The kid’s confidence must be rattled after getting talked up for his first game only to be dropped a few weeks later, and judging from stories out of the Tigers this year he’s not the only one who feels that way.
I am expecting to see the Eels build on the attacking momentum that we saw emerge last week against the Broncos.
I think that the focus that BA will be looking for is to put on an impressive defensive game. At their defensive best they should be able to shut out the dysfunctional Tigers attack
go parra
I Think this game Moses n co will really turn it on n show these ppl including myself that we can still produce the attack that got us in the top 4.
I’m thinking Ricky Stuart is playing it safe by resting his troop’s knowing his side will finish 5th.
I hope for some reason we sign Benji Marshall for say 1\2 yrs to to pass on his experience to players like Dylan Brown.
I hope the club resign salmon but I can’t see that happening.
I think we win.
Eels 32
Tiger’s 16
A wise mate reiterated that we need to hold their opening 20-30 mins blitz and be patient; I agree. Don’t get into the rubbish with Blore and Co and look after Matterson not that he needs it.
We just need to complete; hold the ruck; and then turn them back inside after the opening attack. They will play on emotion and we hope it ends after 30-40 mins; while we need to focus on the minor elements; getting to the kick; chase well; lock up the ball runners and offloads. It is those simple things we need to execute, and then be patient and allow our forwards to dominate.
Score? no idea – could be 20-16 us or 32-16 either way a win, and no serious injuries please.
Well, didn’t things just get a whole lot more interesting. RCG and Field out, Alvaro and Takaz in. The Roosters stuck on equal points, so we can leapfrog them and play Melbourne instead. And, if history is any guide, the Roosters now no chance of winning the premiership. Game on!
Do we have the feeling there’s more to play out?
NRL integrity unit will be at the Easts RL offices today……swabbing players. You have to admit if that was your team one week out you would be a little concerned.
Milo what happened. That was diabolical. The Roosters got the first try but from there it was virtually one way traffic
Souths have been ordinary since they beat the Eels. Never saw this coming
Hi John and agreed – I could not believe it to be honest; Souths were good but not that good in my view. Souths are very hot one week and then not on game; Easts….I am not sure what to make of it.
I only hope we put in a good one tonight, whether we play Melb or Penrith it does not matter…we have to beat them all anyway.
They were good for a few games around the time they beat us,but losing the X factor of Mitchell was a huge blow.The fullback they have now was good last night but with Latrell they could have won on the back of that almost unstoppable attack,Walker on fire is the best running half in the game ,who knows they could still take it out with a month of consistent footy.Bring on the Storm,at some point we have to slay the giant but we will have to be 120% on.I won an unwinnable GF with the Mighty Long Flat Dragons with everyone shouting 120! 120! all game as a reminder to give more than you had,that’s what the boys will need to progress from here.Cant wait.
Good story
Eggman yes Walker is playing v well; I still think they can go missing at times, and are not consistent; when they are on they are on big time; but last week……?
The last round just got interesting!! The NRL can be brutal if you have an off-night & thinking about the finals rather than the game at hand is a possible explanation.
Eels have taken a month to get over the Sths loss. Chooks are cooked – massive turnaround required. Knights were terrible too.
Maybe one of those crazy rounds of upsets; go the Dogs, Dragons & sharks
We got tickets. 10 going- 8 Parra supporters and 2 Tigers. We simply need to come in the top 4. I am confident the boys will play well. I think Reed might just have a good game. Run at Grant from the opening.
We simply are not serious contenders with the softness in defence we’re showing tonight
we’ll be alright.defense is as much about combinations as attack is and tonight we rested a few key players, one being arguably the best defensive centre in the game.We still have noted tacklers Reg,Brown and Stone to return.We may have taken the Tigers a little lightly and it almost bit us,but luckily for all [i would imagine the sack BA brigade would have been salivating ] we prevailed and will be better for it.Bring on The Storm.If we show up we can do this.
in saying that, Fergo and Blake will need to do better or Paps and the Fox will have a field day.
It’s been a problem for a number of weeks.