The Cumberland Throw

20/20 – A 20 Round Season By The Numbers

The return of rugby league is on the horizon. After broadcast deal dramas, quarantine dramas and finally vaccine dramas we are still somehow on track for a May 28 kick-off. The abbreviated 20 round regulation season is locked in and while the intricacies of the draw still need to be sorted out, the fact that we have that 20 round figure means we can start breaking down some important thresholds for the 2020 season.

 

Season Top 8

(Wins)

% Top 4

(Wins)

% Minor Premiership

(Wins)

%
2019 11.5 47.92% 15 62.50% 20 83.33%
2018 15 62.50% 16 66.67% 16* 66.67%
2017 13 54.17% 16 66.67% 20 83.33%
2016 11.5 47.92% 15* 62.50% 19 79.17%
2015 12 50.00% 14* 58.33% 18 75.00%
2014 12* 50.00% 15 62.50% 16* 66.67%
2013 12 50.00% 15 62.50% 18* 75.00%
2012 12 50.00% 16 66.67% 18 75.00%
2011 12* 50.00% 15 62.50% 19 79.17%
2010 12 50.00% 15 62.50% 17 70.83%
2009 12.5 52.08% 14.5 60.42% 17*⁺ 70.83%
2008 13 54.17% 15 62.50% 17* 70.83%
2007 11* 45.83% 13.5 56.25% 21 87.50%
2006 12 50.00% 14* 58.33% 20 83.33%
2005 12 50.00% 14* 58.33% 16* 66.67%
2004 11 45.83% 15 62.50% 19* 79.17%
2003 12 50.00% 16 66.67% 18 75.00%
2002 10.5* 43.75% 15.5 64.58% 17* 70.83%
2001 13ⁿ 54.17% 16ⁿ 66.67% 21ⁿ 87.50%
2000 13 54.17% 15* 62.50% 19 79.17%
1999 14ⁿ 58.33% 16 66.67% 18 75.00%
1998 13.5 56.25% 17.5 72.92% 18.5* 77.08%

* Denotes a threshold decided by point-differentials.

⁺ Denotes minor premiership that Dragons won on points-differential with 17 wins despite the Bulldogs finishing 2009 with 18 wins. Bulldogs were penalised for an interchange breach in Round 2 and were deducted the win.

ⁿ Denotes win total including two draws.

 

Top 8

 

In the last decade of the NRL a win rate of 50% has proven to be good enough to make the finals 60% of the time. However, historically in the NRL era the success rate of that win percentage in regards to making the finals slips to 40.91%. Evidently a 50% win rate is no guarantee to earn an outright berth in the postseason and even less so when you consider that point-differentials have come into play twice in the 9 times a team has made the finals with 12 wins. In 2014 the Warriors and the Eels were victims of their inferior point-differentials despite winning 12 of 24 games each while in 2011 the Bulldogs suffered the same fate.

So while a 10 win campaign in the upcoming 20 round season will likely secure you a place in the finals, if you want to be almost certain of your spot we have to raise the bar higher. In the NRL era, there are only two recorded seasons – the very first in 1998 and 1999 – where 13 wins (54.17%) was not enough to claim an outright place in the Top 8.

In 1998 the 13 win Bulldogs (+78) and Sea-Eagles (+30) were damnably unlucky in that particular year as though they boasted superior points-differentials to the Dragons (-4), the Red-V set the entry to the Top 8 at a bar of a crazy height of 13.5 wins with a 15-15 draw in the final round of the regulation season against none other than the Eels. The following season in 1999 saw the Raiders miss out on the Top 8 with 13.5 wins to their name because the Broncos had 13 wins and 2 draws

It would take 20-years for those two brutal thresholds to be topped until the truly bizarre 2018 season where the entire Top 8 had a margin of a solitary win between them from 1st (Roosters, 16 wins) to 8th (Warriors, 15 wins).

Discounting 1998, 1999 and 2018 as outliers, we can set the bar for making the Top 8 pretty solidly at 13 wins or at a win rate of ~54.17%. Extrapolating that to a 20 round season pegs the golden number of wins to an unsurprising figure of 11 (55.00%).

With their 2-0 start banked before the COVID-19 pandemic brought the world to a screeching halt, the Eels are now required to win just 9 of their remaining 18 games to hit that threshold.

Required win rate for the remainder of 2020 – 50.00%

Margin of error – 9 games

Random bit of trivia for you! The lowest win total to make the Top 8 in the NRL era occurred in 2002. The Canberra Raiders squeaked into the final spot of the Top 8 with 10 wins and a draw. Shockingly, they had more wins than the 7th placed Dragons who are the only team to ever make the Top 8 with single digit wins in a season. Their 9 wins and 3 draws (and 2 byes) saw them draw level with the Raiders on competition points (25pts) but their vastly superior point-differential (86 vs -170) ended up the difference between the two teams.

 

Top 4

 

Things are pretty clear cut here. While the lowest entry point to the Top 4 was 13.5 wins in 2007, 16 wins (66.67%), regardless of point-differential, has always been enough to earn a place in the Top 4 in the NRL barring the ridiculous outlier year that was 1998. Dropping the bar down to 15 wins (62.50%) has seem teams earn a place in the Top 4 14-times in the 22 seasons of the NRL – 63.64% of the time. It should be noted that point-differential played a part in 2 of those 14 seasons.

Quick maths now. 13 wins in a 20 round season nets you a win rate of 65.00% while notching an extra victory to set the total to 14 bumps that percentage to 70.00%. While it is likely that 13 wins ends up enough to get the coveted second chance in the finals, let’s set the benchmark high for the Eels and aim for 14 wins at a minimum for the Top 4. As before, with 2 wins already to their name, Parramatta now require a further 12 wins from their final 18 games to reach this threshold.

Required win rate for the remainder of 2020 – 66.67%

Margin of error – 6 games

 

Minor Premiership

 

The path to the J.J Giltinan Shield is every bit as volatile as scraping into the Top 8. The Eels (2005) and the Roosters (2014) have both claimed the minor premiership with win totals as low at 16 (66.67%) while the Storm (2007) own the NRL record of 21 wins (87.50%) although that occurred during the period where their salary cap cheating occured. The 2001 Eels with 20 wins and 2 draws own the best legitimate win rate in light of that.

Pinning down the precise win rate required to claim the minor premiership is the most difficult exercise among these three categories. Point-differentials have decided the minor premiership 9 times in the history of the NRL. By comparison, point-differentials have come into play 5 times for the cut-off to the Top 4 and 3 times for the Top 8 in the same period. In general, at least 18 wins (75.00%) has been required to finish on top of the ladder in a given season. 15 of the 22 NRL minor premiers hit this benchmark and it seems like a good place to start for setting a similar goal in 2020.

In light of that 15 wins (75.00%) or 16 wins (80%) with a strong point-differnential should give any team a red-hot crack at the J.J. Giltinan Shield. As with the threshold for the Top 4, we will set the more difficult of the two as the goal meaning the Eels have to chalk up 14 wins from their remaining 18 games.

Required win rate for the remainder of 2020 – 77.78%

Margin of error – 4 games

 

So there you have it. More or less what is required from the Eels, or any team really, to make the Top 8, Top 4 or win the minor premiership in this singularly unique season. Of course, we could have a similarly crazy season to 1998 or 2018 which blows all these parameters out of the water but by and large these are the benchmarks that will need to be reached. The question now is just how high the Eels can go in pursuit of these goals.

 

Forty

 

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Gol

Thank you Forty for using wins rather than points like every other article seemed to do.

sixties

Agreed Gol. The varying use of byes makes use of points less valid.

Richard Cranium

Nice one Forty. Also highlights why I hate using differential to decide 8th spot, when it’s usually an uneven comp. If every club played each club the same amount of times it works. But when o e team could have an easier draw than another, deciding by differential is unfair

sixties

I agree. If we can’t have all teams playing each other twice, what would you suggest as the fairest system Richard?

John Eel

I like this analysis it makes for easy reading. The standouts for me is firstly the obvious when you have standout team or teams at the top the bar is lowered for entry into the top 8. Given that we have never seen a team win from outside the top 4 if it is ever to happen it will most likely happen at a time when a higher than normal number of wins is required to make the eight The other issue that is being debated is that teams who currently have no wins have little chance of making the… Read more »

Milo

John that’s correct – 20 rounds is enough; and it would be entirely different if we had played 6-8 rounds or so. I believe this comp may be the hardest to pick from as teams will all be undergoing another mini-pre season and lets factor in the non-crowds and home / away factors.
I am glad they kept the points as there were in my view more positives for this than negatives.

sixties

Agreed. Regardless of Parra winning both matches, I believe that making the first two rounds null and void would have caused a massive loss of faith in this season. Even before the ball was kicked off before round 1, we could see this cessation was coming eventually. The plan was playing what we could before halting.

Paul taylor

Great read mate . I have no doubt that this season will be the toughest yet purely for the following reasons: No origin disruptions so every team is top strength for the entire season . Teams with less rep players tend to take advantage of the 6 week period and lag after origin to scrape together wins they might not have normally had against the top sides . The mental strength of teams will be tested. When it becomes obvious that they won’t figure in the play offs , blow outs will be the Normal. Hard to play tough when… Read more »

Milo

Hi Paul, could not agree more. Some great points there. Teams will need to peak at different times of the season and build up. No origin will also be intriguing for the non-origin teams.
Injuries to key players can kill off a teams chances and improve others within a fortnight.

sixties

Paul and Milo, I am in complete agreement. Whoever wins this year will have an asterisk but it will be for overcoming the toughest year since war years.

BDon

Great picture of the challenge. I made the mistake of trying to apply it to actual opponents ,but the interesting thing to come out of that was how many ‘middling’ teams there are. Teams that could easily jump out of the ground and beat you on their good day.And that’s how a comp should be,not full of pushovers. I’ve just stored in my head the numbers 9, 12, 14, to track our wins.

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