28 APRIL 2017
1300SMILES STADIUM
After consecutive wins, the Eels will be going into this clash against the Cowboys with their tails up. There’s something to be said about the confidence to be gained from winning, and Parra will be looking to maintain momentum against a Cowboys team that’s experienced some recent injury disruptions.
I reckon we can look for a big performance from the Eels before the Representative Weekend break.
Let’s have a look at the history between these two sides.
| Season | Round | Date | Eels | Cowboys | Venue name | Result |
| 2016 | 8 | 23-Apr-2016 | 16 | 32 | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Cowboys win by 16 points |
| 2016 | 2 | 12-Mar-2016 | 20 | 16 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 4 points |
| 2015 | 20 | 27-Jul-2015 | 4 | 46 | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Cowboys win by 42 points |
| 2015 | 13 | 08-Jun-2015 | 30 | 36 | Pirtek Stadium | Cowboys win by 6 points |
| 2014 | 13 | 06-Jun-2014 | 18 | 16 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 2 points |
| 2014 | 8 | 26-Apr-2014 | 14 | 42 | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Cowboys win by 28 points |
| 2013 | 8 | 04-May-2013 | 10 | 14 | Pirtek Stadium | Cowboys win by 4 points |
| 2012 | 3 | 17-Mar-2012 | 6 | 42 | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Cowboys win by 36 points |
| 2011 | 10 | 14-May-2011 | 26 | 40 | 1300 Smiles Stadium | Cowboys win by 14 points |
| 2011 | 4 | 02-Apr-2011 | 22 | 20 | Pirtek Stadium | Eels win by 2 points |
Over the last 10 games the Cowboys hold a 7 – 3 win record, with an aggregate score of Eels 166 to Cowboys 304. This provides us with an average score line of Cowboys 30 Eels 17.
In total, these two teams have played each other 35 times with the Eels slightly ahead 18 – 16. At the 1300Smiles venue the Cowboys hold a 9 – 5 advantage. Unfortunately, the Eels last ten visits do not make for great reading, with only a solitary victory over this period.
In the game break up for this season, the 1st quarter of the game sees the Eels with 5 wins to 2 for the Cowboys. For the 2nd quarter 20 – 40 minutes, the Eels have won 3 times compared to the Cowboys 2. So a strong start can go a long way to seeing the Eels secure the 2 points.
After oranges though things start to get a bit ugly for the Eels. For the first 20 minutes after the break, both teams have notched up 4 wins, but it’s the last 20 mins that things start to unravel for the Eels. With only one win in this time period to Cowboys 4, the Eels will need to finish much better. The Cowboys are notoriously strong finishes, so either the Eels need to dig deep in the second stanza or build a very solid first half lead. Twice this year the Cowboys have been behind at half time yet have won. Nonetheless, their three losses this season have come after being behind at half time.
In attack the Eels rank 5th with runs per game with 158.1 and the Cowboys 11th with 154. But even though the Cowboys rank in the lower half of runs per game, they are 3rd ranked with Run Metres with 1543.8 to the Eels 1429.8 metres per game (a ranking of 13). No doubt the Cowboys Number 13 has a lot to deal with this statistic!
The Cowboys don’t like to offload. They only produce 4.8 offloads a game which sees them 16th ranked whilst the Eels are 6th ranked with 11 offloads a game. So does this mean that the Cowboys have an ineffective second phase game? Can this be used by the Eels to gain more territory?
Line breaks sees the two sides fairly even with the Eels 3.5 p/g (8th) to Cowboys 3.9 (5th).
In defence the Eels average 315 tackles per game, ranking them 7th highest. The Cowboys 297.1 tackles per game has them sitting at 14th. So by these figues, Cowboys average an extra 3 sets per game. Missed tackles are even with Eels 23.1 (6th) to Cowboys 23.2 (9th).
Discipline with and without the ball sees Parra conceding 6.8 (11th) penalties per game against the Cowboys 6 (5th). Errors are even with Eels making 11.8 (14th) per game and the Cowboys 11.4 (13th). Kyle Feldt leads the competition with 17 errors conceded this year. Semi comes in at 8th with 12.
With reports coming out this morning that Thurston will play Friday night after medical clearance (which really isn’t a shock given his selection for the Kangaroos next week), let’s look at the 2017 game stats of Norman and Thurston.
| Player | J.Thurston | C.Norman |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Possessions | 60.7 | 50.1 |
| Runs/Run Metres | 6.0/50.2 | 7.3/76.7 |
| Offloads | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Tackles/Missed Tackles | 14.2/3.3 | 14.3/1.9 |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Penalties Conceded | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Errors | 1 | 0.3 |
| Try Assists (Total) | 4 | 6 |
| Line Breaks (Total) | 1 | 2 |
| Line Break Assists (Total) | 5 | 4 |
The statistic that jumps out with this table is that Thurston is a more dominant half. His level of game management is reflected in the possessions per game. In contrast, Corey Norman is far more likely to run the ball.
So all in all both teams are evenly matched across the board stats wise. The Cowboys aren’t looking like the Cowboys of old and are living off recent memory at the moment. Thurston is looking tired and not as potent as recent years. The loss of Matt Scott has certainly affected the Cowboys go forward. Take out Taumalolo and their forwards aren’t as damaging as previous years.
If the Tigers can beat a Thurston led Cowboys side in Townsville, surely the Eels are in with a big chance.
Go Parra!
Colmac
Champion Data
Stats courtesy of Champion Data. All these stats and more can be viewed on our match centre at http://mc.championdata.com/nrl/ including live game stats.
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