Date: Monday 30^th of May

Venue: Hunter Stadium

Gates Open: 4:30pm

Kick off:  7:00pm (NYC U20s 4:45)

Head Referee: Henry Perenara

Assistant Referee: Gavin Reynolds

Head to head: Played 47, Knights 26, Eels 20, drawn 1

Head to head odds: Eels ($ 1.35), Knights ($ 3.35)

Broadcast: Live and televised 7:00pm, Fox Sports one.

Last four encounters:

1. Eels 28, Knights 20 at Hunter Stadium (2015)
2. Knights 42, Eels 12 at Hunter Stadium (2014)
3. Knights 16, Eels 10 at Pirtek Stadium (2014)
4. Knights 54, Eels 6 at Hunter Stadium (2013)

Preview: Round 11 has come and gone and now we are well and truly into Round 12. Monday’s encounter will see the out-of-sorts Parramatta Eels square off against the seemingly hapless Newcastle Knights who are currently sitting at the foot of the NRL ladder. The Knights have had a year to forget – not only are they currently sitting last on the NRL ladder they have only managed to win one game from eleven starts this season. As for the Eels, once they are stripped of their twelve competition points due to much publicised cap breaches, they will be last on the NRL ladder. The Eels would be desperate to get a win on the board due to that implication. So to effectively summarise things, both teams would be more than desperate to score a win in this one.

Value Bet: My value bet is for the Eels to score a victory by a margin of 13 points or more at $2.20. As for the first try favourites for both teams, the Eels have Semi Radradra at an incredibly short $4.50 and Clint Gutherson out at $8.50, whereas the Knights have Akuila Uate at $13 and Cory Denniss out at $14.

Interesting fact: Former Eel Pauli Pauli will his first game against his former club in this one. Pauli is expected to start in the back row for the Knights.

It will be a big week for: This week shapes as a big week for Eels five eighth Corey Norman. Norman is a player who probably can’t wait to get out on the field. Although having said that this whole situation with Norman is pending and no outcome will be known until the conclusion of a court case. Given that fact, Norman will be desperate to put a bad week behind him by doing what he does best – playing some good football. This season has been a good one for Norman and he’s probably one of the game’s form five-eighths at the moment. His breakout season could not have happened at a better time though the past week may impact his asking price. Recent speculation would have you believe that Norman is very close to signing a new long-term deal at the Eels. If that is the case the news would be very much welcomed!

The Eels and their faithful supporters have had a rough past month with various media outlets and journalists having dragged their club’s name through the mud. It seems the Eels have been front and back page news for the past month now and the re-signing of Norman would come as some welcomed good news for the Eels and their supporters.

Danger man: This week’s danger man is Knights back rower Tariq Sims. Sims, like a lot of Knights players this season, has had a very rough year. Tariq has been a player of notoriety for quite some time now and it seems each time Origin rolls around his name is always in the mix for a place on either the NSW bench or back row. However, this season Sims hasn’t really been mentioned in that context. At 26 years of age he currently seems to have hit a speed bump in his career, although it would be difficult for Sims to be impressive in the Knights’ team at the moment (no offense to current Knights players or Sims himself). Even with the speculation about his current form, we all know the type of player Tariq Sims is and when he does hit his straps, he is one of the games most damaging back rowers and a force to be reckoned with. The difference between being in form and out of form can be as little as one game and if that happens Sims will well and truly challenge the Eels.

Sims is the type of player who just plays the game very hard. He hits with venom and runs with gusto. Saying that may sound quite simple but its not something every back rower in the game does and can do. He might make twenty-odd tackles per game but all twenty of those tackles will hurt. He isn’t your typical workhorse type of back rower that will play eighty minutes and make sixty tackles per game – Sims is more of a power impact player – which could make him a danger man for the Eels.

Newcastle Knights (16^th coming into the round)

1. Jake Mamo
2. Cory Denniss
3. Sione Mata’utia
4. Nathan Ross
5. Akuila Uate
6. Jaelen Feeney
7. Trent Hodkinson (C)
8. Sam Mataora
9. Danny Levi
10. Daniel Saifiti
11. Tariq Sims
12. Pauli Pauli
13. Jeremy Smith

14. Tyler Randall
15. Korbin Sims
16. Josh King
17. Mickey Paea

18. David Bhana, 19. Pat Mata’utia

Coach: Nathan Brown

Late mail: No late changed expected for the Knights they should run out as per the program, 1 through 17.

Parramatta Eels (6^th coming into the round, pending 12 point deduction)

1. Michael Gordon
2. Semi Radradra
3. Vai Toutai
4. Brad Takairangi
5. Clint Gutherson
6. Corey Norman
7. Kieran Foran (C)
8. Junior Paulo
9. Issac De Gois
10. Danny Wicks
11. Manu Ma’u
12. Beau Scott
13. Tepai Moeroa

14. Kaysa Pritchard
15. Peni Terepo
16. David Gower
17. Kenny Edwards

Coach: Brad Arthur

Late mail: Junior Paulo has been released by the Eels to take up a deal at the Canberra Raiders prior to his contract starting next season. Daniel Alvaro will replace Paulo in the front row.

Two Key Match Ups:

1.  Trent Hodkinson vs Kieran Foran: The first key match up will feature a battle of the halfbacks as the Knights co-captain Trent Hodkinson squares off against the Eels captain Kieran Foran.

This season marks Trent Hodkinson’s first season at the Newcastle Knights and it started on a positive note for the halfback after officially being named one of Newcastle’s co-captains for the 2016 season alongside Jeremy Smith and Tariq Sims. Hodkinson left the Canterbury Bulldogs last season after spending four years at the club. He had a few good seasons at Canterbury including being a part of the 2014 grand final team that was defeated by the Souths Sydney Rabbitohs. Hodkinson’s Bulldogs career ended in a particularly unfortunate way. In Round 24 of last season he suffered a serious wrist injury – ironically against his soon to be new club the Newcastle Knights. The wrist injury  would go on to affect him throughout the pre-season with the Knights but it was not enough to keep Hodkinson out of his club’s round one encounter with the Titans where they were unfortunately beaten.

Hodkinson has had it tough this season. The struggle has been compounded for him as he was not retained for game one of the State of Origin series. As the incumbent halfback for NSW he was dumped in favour of Souths Sydney Rabbitohs halfback Adam Reynolds who will make his debut for NSW. Hodkinson is a very classy halfback and he will be determined to get back in favour with Laurie Daley (NSW coach) and the NSW selectors with a strong performance against the Eels on Monday night. Furthermore, if Hodkinson is playing good football it’s good news for NSW and the Knights and most certainly makes him a danger man for the Eels.

Eels halfback and captain Kieran Foran will this week play his second game for the Eels since returning from a personal hiatus. Foran was not at his best last Monday night. Whether he was ready to play or not is beside the point because his game was clearly affected by a minor shoulder injury suffered in the first half against the Storm. He went on to play the game in its entirety but it was clear he was hampered by the injury. Foran is widely expected to push though the pain threshold to take his place in the lineup against the Knights.

The fact that Foran is will be on the park would no doubt help the Eels confidence as he is the type of player that lifts the players around him. His presence serves as a rallying point for his team mates and it has been the case since his early days at the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles. Despite only playing a handful of games for the Eels this season it is clear that the signing of Foran has done wonders for the Eels attacking structures and the Eels will be hoping Foran can help them secure a victory against the Knights.

2. Jake Mamo vs Michael Gordon: The second key match up is the battle between the fullbacks as the Newcastle firebrand Jake Mamo prepares to face down Eels Mr. Consistent Michael Gordon.

Jake Mamo – one of the games brightest young talents – has had a shaky start to the 2016 season, struggling to nail down a spot in the Newcastle Knights first string roster. He possesses great speed and is a natural fullback so he would definitely be a player that the Eels want to shut down. Coming into 2016, it was expected that Mamo would assume the mantle of fullback from former custodian Kurt Gidley (who played a number of positions for the Knights in 2015). Being the clubman that he was, Gidley was more than happy to move on – leaving the Knights to find their new Fullback. Following Gidley’s departure, it was expected Mamo would play fullback for the Knights in 2016. However, that wasn’t the case as Mamo faced competition at fullback with Sione Mata’utia and Dane Gagai. Gagai won out and Mamo was left to linger in reserve grade.

Monday night represents Mamo’s first real opportunity to cement his spot in the Knights’ top seventeen. Dane Gagai has been selected for Queensland in the upcoming State of Origin series and thus he is unavailable for this encounter with the Eels. Whilst it looks unlikely at this stage that Mamo force Gagai out of fullback on a full-time basis, he might be able to convince coach Nathan Brown to find a spot for him somewhere in the top roster.

Eels fullback Michael Gordon, if you believe the audacious rumours, may be on his way out of the club in the coming weeks. The rumours suggest Gordon is off to the Sydney Roosters for the remainder of the 2016 season, although this is unconfirmed at this stage. So far in 2016 Michael Gordon has had a solid season without being great. One of the most impressive things Gordon has done for the Eels is to provide stability at fullback. He is very reliable at the back and he makes a minimal amount of errors – something the Eels lacked at fullback last season with a number of players trying their hand at the role.

Gordon is a safe fullback and a reliable goal kicker – but that usually formidable aspect of his game has been lacking in recent weeks. There were a few noticeably poor strikes against the Rabbitohs which proved pivotal as the Eels went on to lose by just two points. However, Gordon is a good goal kicker in general and games like that are few and far between. Gordon, along with the remainder of the Eels back three (Semi Radradra and Clint Gutherson), will want to be very much on his game in terms of positioning come Monday night. Trent Hodkinson is one of the games better general play kickers and will no doubt be looking to exploit any opportunity he may get to put in a threatening kick.

My Tip: On paper this looks an easy one to tip, as you would have the Eels beating the Knights and beating them well. But as we all know, no game of footy has ever been won on paper and you’d only have to look back to Friday night’s game between the Broncos and Tigers to find an example of that.

Long story short, you’d be hard pressed to write off the Knights even though they aren’t in the best of form. However, you would be a brave man to bet against the Eels in this one, so put me down for an Eels victory – Eels 40, Knights 10.

Man of the match: Kieran Foran/Beau Scott

Enjoy the game, GO THE EELS !!!

Nathan

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