Writing a preview for this clash feels a bit like being forced to dig my own grave before I get kicked into it. All signs, formlines and sacrificial omens suggest an unpleasant night is ahead for the men in Blue and Gold and their fans, and while it is too early in the season for proper doomering I am entering Saturday night’s clash with Penrith fully expecting to not have a great time of it.

I wish I had more confidence and optimism for this clash, but sometimes the truth hurts. Penrith are on another level to the rest of the NRL so far this year, thrashing three opponents in a row who were all expected to feature at the pointy end of season 2026. After a year of the best football we’ve seen in some time (and coincidentally the first that didn’t end in a Penrith premiership) the rules have been reeled back to those that enabled the peak of Panther dominance, and the mountain men haven’t forgotten how to use and abuse six again football.

That’s before you consider the individual brilliance, the conveyor of young talent, the toughness and relentlessness of the forward pack and the absolute professionalism of the outfit from top to bottom. The Eels are up against it this week, but outlandish upsets are what rugby league is built upon, and while the Eels knocking over the Panthers in round 4 isn’t exactly Cumbria beating the Kangaroos, it’d be a pretty special performance. Let’s preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 5:30PM, AEDT
Referee: Todd Smith
Bunker: Liam Kennedy
Weather: Cool, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (All odds quoted are NSW Tab)

Though we were on track to our total match points target at half time last week, only 18 points were added in the second half and we fell ten short.

I’m sorely tempted to select the Eels in the head to head market this week. The price of $4.80 is very enticing, but my attention was ultimately drawn elsewhere.

This week the exotic market of the line/over under double is tough to ignore. We all expect quite a few points to be scored, and traditionally the Eels have troubled the Panthers in regular season clashes.

All that points to a very attractive $3.80 for Parra +15.5 points/over 46.5 total match points.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

The Rivalry

Until this decade Parramatta’s rivalry with Penrith was mostly one-sided, with the Panthers developing a little brother complex while Parramatta remained mostly oblivious to the bad blood brewing at the base of the mountains. I didn’t realise how serious it was until James Fisher-Harris and his childish vitriol celebrating the 2022 grand final win, revealing they had built most of their identity in an effort to emerge from a shadow the Eels didn’t even realise they were casting.

Others that live closer to the borders of the “battle of the west” might feel it more than I do, where close to the heart of Parramatta I have mostly worked with and been related to despicable Bulldogs fans, those on the northern and western outposts of Eels territory probably replace those disgusting dogs with cocky cats. My few visits to Panther Park should’ve tipped me off; but I just thought every away fan got verbally abused and had empties thrown at them on the Penny hill.

The emergence of Penrith as the dominant NRL force has produced a torrent of classic footy matches between the Panthers and Eels over the last six years. The Eels were the only team with a positive record against the Panthers for a while and looked to have their number, until the 2022 grand final put a full stop on that narrative. Dodgy trainer behaviour, questionable stoppages, blessed luck with Eels injuries, you name it, Penrith tried it to get over the Eels, and when that didn’t work they started signing our players instead.

You’ll be all too aware of the modern marvels of this rivalry. My favourite was when Nathan Cleary kicked that 2 point field goal to tie the game and became an NRL hero, then Mitch Moses marched us down field and calmly won the game with his own far more important kick. I’d like to bring your attention to a classic, the 2000 Semi Final won by the Eels 28-10, where afterwards Jim Dymock was facing judiciary charges that might end his Eels career prematurely. His victim, Panthers centre Ryan Girdler, went to Dymock’s defence at the hearing, claiming he jumped in the tackle to earn a penalty. When asked if diving head first into the ground was something he did often, Girdler replied “only in semi finals”. It was convincing enough for Dymock to be cleared and take his place the next week.

Rivalry status: Red hot

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Isaiah Iongi 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Brian Kelly 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jonah Pezet 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jack Williams 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Kitione Kautoga 13. Dylan Walker. 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Sam Tuivaiti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Luca Moretti 18. Charlie Guymer 19. Joash Papalii. 20. Jack De Belin.

A few forced changes thanks to injury, as Brian Kelly makes his second Blue and Gold appearance in place of Jordan Samrani. We’ll see if there is a swap to get him defending next to Josh Addo-Carr, which would make me feel a whole lot more comfortable, but if he comes straight into the team then that edge with Simonsson is one you’ll only be able to watch through the cracks of your fingers.

Barring last minute shenanigans, Jack Williams takes up a permanent place in the front row for J’maine Hopgood, who is out for the year with an ACL tear. Dylan Walker is named to start at lock, making official his late swap last week, with both Luca Moretti and Charlie Guymer looming on the bench. Game situation may be what determines which of the two gets a run. Jack de Belin is the survivor of first cuts to the extended bench, but isn’t expected to factor here.

Penrith Panthers

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Casey McLean 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Brian To’o 6. Blaize Talagi 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo. 14. Jack Cogger 15. Billy Phillips 16. Scott Sorensen 17. Luke Garner 18. Izack Tago 19. Freddy Lussick. 21. Jack Cole.

As usual, Penrith has no injury concerns and have named a full strength 17. Must be nice to always have your top players available for key contests. Tom Jenkins has scored a thousand tries in three weeks on the wing, taking the “guy who just scores” mantle for 2026 from Casey McLean. Paul Alamoti is the opposite centre, one of the few potential weak spots to target in the defensive structure.

Former Eel Isaiah Papali’i chased the coin to the Tigers then the lure of success to the mountains, and is the current starting back rower alongside Liam Martin. Both Luke Garner and Scott Sorensen on the bench could be potential late swaps. Billy Phillips is the next “where do they even come from?” candidate for emergent Penrith forwards, he’s looked good in his 2026 appearances.

Why the long face?

A huge effort is needed from Brian Kelly

In a year where fatigued defences have cracked at the slightest pressure, Penrith’s try line has been impregnable. It is frankly stupid that the Roosters, Sharks and Broncos combined could put only 10 points past the Penrith wall. These are teams that are averaging 26.5 points per game outside of their contests with Penrith. They aren’t slouches, and the Panthers turned them away like they were the 1999 Western Suburbs Magpies. It bodes poorly. That they’re also casually averaging 30 points scored a game is somewhat concerning too.

Discipline is the key. Penrith drops the ball just as much as any other side, but they don’t give away many penalties and they are one of the few teams still able to abuse ruck infringements in the way that saw them dominate 2021. While the NRL mysteriously refuses to provide cumulative stats for ruck infringements, it is safe to say that Penrith are among the higher conceders of restarts, but not all restarts are created equal. Where every wave of the arm against the Eels likely means a set is extending to 10+ tackles, the Panthers are still conceding most of theirs on the early tackles to ensure dominance of the ruck from the start of the set. Set restarts against Penrith aren’t fatigue inducing, they are dominance assuring.

Side note: while we are asking the NRL to properly document statistics for the game, I’d love a “total tackles added” for set restarts alongside counting stats. We could call it the backbreaker index. I’d wager the Eels are right up there. They’ve added “half breaks” as a statistical category just this year, so we know they can do it. Very strange they’d be obfuscating information around the restart, isn’t it?

Penrith set up their opponents exactly as they want them, then get into the grind of Pantherball. Dylan Edwards and Brian To’o take the hard carries early in the set, then the big men grind away the later plays to, at worst, run downhill for field position and at best, earn a six again to start an attacking set. It’s boring but it has been brutally effective to the point that the rest of the NRL has attempted to clone the style. Alas, the rest of the NRL doesn’t employ Brian To’o or Dylan Edwards.

The dominance is reinforced by the shared nature of the Panthers attack. No Panther has more than two try assists, despite Penrith crossing for 15 tries in 3 games. Tom Jenkins has more than half of those tries, but they have come from a variety of methods: kicks, finishing long breaks, good old fashioned numbers advantages and the occasional bit of individual excellence. Penrith just get down there and eventually find a way to score.

Slippery

It sure would be nice for Pezet to stamp his arrival with a big game here.

Parramatta has proven especially vulnerable to this kind of attack. The Eels are not great exploiters of the six again, when they give them away it is usually on tackle four and usually not in such a way that prevents a decent play the ball. They are also a terrible defensive team under fatigue (unless their opponent refuses to exploit overlaps like the Dragons last week). The Eels middle simply hasn’t held up to start 2026, regularly the opposition pack just roll down field. The Eels love to bend, then close to the line the defence hasn’t figured out the “don’t break” part of the classic saying, making basic mistakes in defensive reads or falling off of tackles on close range efforts.

Penrith are set up perfectly with strengths that exploit the Parramatta weaknesses. Their pack is still elite and they are ruthless when exploiting a defensive mismatch, just ask Mark Nawaqanitawase and Junior Pauga. With Jonah Pezet and Brian Kelly in the side, not to mention the occasionally maligned efforts of the back rowers, the best hope to stop Nathan Cleary from exploiting the defence might be choice paralysis.

The only hope will be improvement in the middle. Defensive contact hasn’t been great and that can’t turn around in a week, but better resolve, fewer mistakes and good discipline are the only paths to victory. If the Eels can get within 10% of the Panthers for metres and field position, Mitchell Moses should be able to kick the difference for us and then it comes down to taking our chances when Penrith do make mistakes.

That needs to start from kickoff, with the Parramatta starting middle setting an unfortunate precedent over the last month of footy in being run over. The bench middles have picked up the slack and kept the side in two of the three games, but that will count for little if the team are already down three scores by first changes. Junior Paulo needs to be run first, run second and run third, especially if Dylan Walker is starting and can take the playmaking duties. Jack Williams must play like a front rower and take those hard carries, leave it out there for shorter stints rather than save himself. Kautoga and Tuilagi need to do more of the tough stuff but also provide that attacking spark. It’s an immense ask, but upsets are built on the improbable.

With the ball, the Eels can certainly threaten Penrith. In the past it was the offload driven game of Parramatta that led them to success, but the off beat nature of the Eels attack could give the structure driven Panthers trouble. Unpredictable footy and the one-on-one wins Kautoga, Tuilagi and Walker are capable of will create chances, and the support of Moses, Iongi and Pezet needs to be there to ice them. Iongi in particular needs to be trailing in the ruck, looking for offloads and short passes. Dylan Edwards can be beaten with footwork and speed if the Eels break that line, and both Iongi and Moses have the skills to do that.

The Game

Against a side like Penrith, the best attack will come from a unique threat like Dylan Walker.

Penrith are just too good at too many things. Nathan Cleary will look to exploit Isaiah Iongi every time he joins the line and leaves an empty backfield, and he will test the edges with short balls and multiple running options to force reads from Pezet, Kautoga and Williams. Edwards and Talagi are experts at exploiting numbers and punishing the single over commitment. If you can contain all that, good luck stopping Brian To’o just burrowing through or, even worse, soccering the ball through for a crazy solo try.

I wish I had more faith in the Eels pack to contend in an arm wrestle, but the proof is there in the opening rounds. The Dragons were all over the Eels to start last week, and credit to the team for recovering but any half decent team would have beaten Parramatta there. The Broncos game was clawed back only by winning a run of possession and playing a team just as weak at defending repeat ball as the Eels. Melbourne buried Parramatta once fatigue set in, and unfortunately I see that as a far more accurate template for what may happen here.

The opening games of the round leave little hope that the six again crackdown is over, though we can probably feel safe knowing it will only last one half of footy. We mocked Brad Arthur for the term, but front loading the effort is crucial here. Better to contend early and fade late than be blown off the park in the opening 20. That comes down to more than just the forwards; Mitch Moses needs to dominate with his kicking game, finding corners, putting it over the sideline where needed, and slowing the game down. Don’t get over ambitious trying to win early rucks, and for the love of Sterlo win (or at least don’t lose) contact on the late tackles.

There are paths to victory, but it will take both a reduced performance from Penrith and footy from the Eels that we just haven’t seen consistently in 2026. I’ll go in hopeful, but I won’t be the least bit surprised if I am reaching for the remote at the 30 minute mark. Penrith are just very, very good this year and the rules of the game (and its crackdowns) have swung back in favour of the Panthers just as they were coming back to the field in 2025. The Eels are struggling to adjust, and it bodes poorly for a competitive performance here.

I hope I’m wrong, but I see more of the same from Penrith here. No shame in getting done by the presumptive premiers, it’s about how the Eels bounce back from it (and how much more damage gets done to the differential). An upset would be an all timer, the kind that might see me running up and down Church Street in the early hours, but I don’t think they should be getting the road blocks and tasers out for me just yet.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Panthers 34 d Eels 10

Man of the Match: Nathan Cleary

Gol

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