The Parramatta Eels continue their month-long march along murderer’s row, this week facing the red hot Brisbane Broncos. The ponies are on a five-match winning streak, knocking off the Warriors, Sharks and Bulldogs in that time, whilst the Eels are in the middle of their own run of what we will call “noble floggings” against finals contenders. I’m all for celebrating the future, but watching strong first halves followed by good teams running away with the game hasn’t exactly been my ideal football viewing experience.

Building for the future is tough when the injury gods are treating your side like a jenga tower: one star comes in, another must come out. This week we welcome back a foundational plank of the Parramatta side in Mitchell Moses, but plucked violently from the middle of the structure is Isaiah Iongi, who will be lucky to play another game this year. It might not be the steepest injury toll in the NRL, but it has been incredibly frustrating to see key future combinations denied valuable experience in an otherwise spent season.

The Eels and the Broncs is one of the underrated rivalries in the NRL, producing some great games of footy over the years. For at least the first half, this one should be entertaining. Can we stretch that contest into the second forty and perhaps even sneak a win? Let’s get into the preview and find out!

Game Info

Date: Friday, July 25, 2025
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Todd Smith
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Weather: Mild, dry
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Gol Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Gol filling in here again, and the usual disclaimer applies: don’t back my punting tip.

I’ve flagged later on in the preview that Jack Gosiewski is a great bet for anytime try scorer, but that was before I checked the TAB’s miserable $3.50 odds they are giving for the bench back rower. Instead, Jack Williams is at $5.50 anytime, which feels a little more generous and is what I’d be backing this week.

But as always, keep it fun.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Gol

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Joash Papalii 2. Zac Lomax 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Dean Hawkins 7. Mitchell Moses 8. J’maine Hopgood 9. Ryley Smith 10. Junior Paulo 11. Charlie Guymer 12. Jack Williams 13. Dylan Walker. 14. Tallyn Da Silva 15. Luca Moretti 16. Matt Doorey 17. Sam Tuivaiti. 21. Jordan Samrani 22. Dylan Brown.

The absence of Isaiah Iongi sees Joash Papalii shift from the halves to fullback, ending his first audition for the vacant 2026 halves role. Dean Hawkins comes into the side at five eighth for his own audition and while Footy Dean has been solid for us this year, that has been as a controlling halfback. How he combines with Moses will be fascinating to see.

In the outside backs Sean Russell has kept his spot despite the availability of Bailey Simonsson, whether that is due to injury niggle or a performance reward is unknown. I’d expect Bailey fights his way into the top side sooner rather than later. While Russell has been solid, Simonsson has a much higher ceiling.

In the pack, Luca Moretti makes a very welcome return via the bench, though Ryles does love a late swap and he could find himself in the front row come game time. Jack Williams returns to what I feel is his best position, the edge, alongside Charlie Guymer. We’ll talk about Dylan Brown later.

Brisbane Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Josiah Karapani 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Xavier Willison 9. Ben Hunt 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan. 14. Billy Walters 15. Kobe Hetherington 16. Corey Jensen 17. Jack Gosiewski. 18. Tyson Smoothy 19. Deine Mariner.

Nobody of note is unavailable for the Broncos, though this starting backline is a long way from the one you’d have put down in your pre-season team predictions. Mariner and Cobbo have made way for Shibasaki and Karapani, and if I learned anything from Origin besides NSW love of making the same mistake over and over and over and over, it is maybe don’t run at Gehamat Shibasaki. At least Jason Ryles will figure out how to get around a rushing defence rather than just running into the teeth of it again and again. Yeah, not bitter about Origin at all.

There are some weak spots in that pack, but the strengths of Payne Haas comfortably make up for any of that. The Eels love to make a nuffy look the goods, so money on a Jack Gosiewski try at any point feels like a solid investment. They are a fairly mobile group so it won’t be easy for the Eels to work their early shifts and ball movement here, but that won’t be anything new given how the last month or so has gone.

Getting Defensive

A good bet for a tryscorer is Jack Williams

The Parramatta defence has definitely improved in 2025, but coming off the historic lows of 2024 that was the bare minimum expected of the new coaching staff. It is still well below league average, making too many mistakes and being unable to cope with playing off the back foot or scrambling in messy situations. When their shape is executed it looks better than the late Brad Arthur era defensive lines that were one quick play-the-ball away from a 4-on-2 situation on the edge, but there is a long, long way to go for this unit to even reach NRL average standard.

The individual lapses should eventually disappear as those individuals shape up or are shipped out. Jack Williams has done a lot of good with the ball this year, but his critical defensive lapses are incredibly costly. J’maine Hopgood and his lack of lateral movement is another issue, one I don’t see his move to prop really solving. The combination building has been sporadic at best this year, but when given a couple of weeks together, specifically around May, the Eels suddenly proved a capable defensive outfit. I hate all the talk of “green shoots”, but if I need to focus on positives for next year, that run of defence against the Knights, Sea Eagles and Panthers (in a loss) is what I’d be looking at.

What the Eels haven’t done is much matchup defence. This is a structure still fumbling its way to a solid implementation, and the next level of tailoring it to the opposition just hasn’t really been present in season 2025. They execute one shape, and its effectiveness is both determined by the quality of that execution and the ability of the opposition to exploit it. That’s a shame, because if any team can be targeted out of their gameplan, it is Brisbane.

It is no secret that the return of Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh marked the turning point of the Broncos season from “wow, Madge isn’t it, is he?” to “top four here we come, baby!” If you can take those two out of the game you are going a long way to winning the contest, specifically by limiting their decision making time and having enough players around the ball to shut down adlib opportunities. That’s exactly what Parramatta has not been good at, and I’d expect to see at least one or two of what we would call “bulls**t tries” in a lunchtime game of footy as Mam or Walsh aren’t wrapped up in good contact or swoop on a loose ball and make something happen.

Part of what makes shutting those two down is the almost guaranteed good play-the-ball they’ll get from a Payne Haas run, who you just really need to let get his and hope you can survive the next downhill play. The rest of their middle is not nearly as effective, including the oddly out of sorts Pat Carrigan, while the edge players are line runners with stars in their eyes rather than workhorses, who the Eels should be targeting at every opportunity in their own attack.

My Own Worst Enemy

Finally, Mitch has come back to Parramatta

Getting those opportunities in attack will require the side to stop pumping hot lead into their own toes as soon as the whistle blows for the second half. 36 errors in two weeks is unacceptable, and it compounds into poor discipline that creates even more defensive pressure. Luckily for the Eels, the Broncos have had similar issues in 2025 when it comes to digesting their oranges. Rugby League Eye Test put it better than I ever could a couple of weeks ago, but the short of it is: Brisbane has not been a good second half team this year (incidentally, those same numbers indicate the Eels have been a good second half team, at least when measured by percentage of total points conceded in the second half. That might be slightly skewed by nearly giving up 50 by halftime in the first game of the year though).

What is interesting is the net errors statistics around the Eels. It was a problem in prior years, but the Parramatta defence just doesn’t force many mistakes from opposing players. I can’t pinpoint a single cause, but passive defence (rushing attacking players, particularly outside backs, can force errors), poor contact and an inability to get away with much in the way of wrestling and ruck trickery will all be contributing. The days of forcing a mistake with a big hit are long gone, you can’t just go and find an enforcer and expect opposing error rates to skyrocket, but shutting down decision making time is a last resort of the Parramatta defence, and is far more effective when executed by some (Josh Addo-Carr) than others (Zac Lomax).

The last time Parramatta held a team to less than an 80% completion rate was against the Knights all the way back in round 11. The Raiders completed 16 more sets than the Eels, the Panthers 12, the Bulldogs a few weeks ago a ridiculous 22. That kind of possession imbalance will stretch even the sternest of defences, which Parramatta’s is most certainly not. Some of this is an offshoot of the higher risk style of play Ryles wants the Eels to adopt, but that needs to be earned by a defence that can force a few good opportunities themselves.

Completion rates aren’t the be all and end all, of course, but I think they tell a fairly accurate story here. High completion footy doesn’t guarantee you will win games, but letting your opponent complete double digit numbers of sets is a great way to guarantee you’ll lose them.

Future Versus Present

It hasn’t been a happy few weeks for Zac, let’s hope he bounces back

There’s been enough Dylan Discourse already (read Shelley and Sixties for some deeper commentary), but I’m all for potentially sacrificing some late season wins to get valuable information for the future. The future is all we have this year, and while avoiding a wooden spoon would be nice, the only real difference between 17th and 16th is the content in the texts your Bulldogs-loving brother-in-law sends you through the off season.

This week I’d have still been giving Joash his chance to play with Moses and found somebody else to fill in at fullback, but as long as Hawkins is a legitimate contender for that role in 2026 I’ll trust Ryles’ judgement. Hawkins certainly deserves his opportunity, doing everything asked of him and then some replacing Moses, but whether his game suits a supporting role I have my doubts.

It’s also important to remember how nascent some of our key combinations are in their development. Moses and Ryley Smith have barely played together, same with Moses and Iongi (which we now won’t get to see) and any halves option with an edge runner (Papalii to Kautoga being our most effective combination this year). Da Silva and Moses would barely know each other and even in the outside backs, Russell and Addo-Carr certainly attack like they’ve never met, even if their defensive combination is passable. Without Penisini, Lomax has been completely at sea defensively and his decision making in recent weeks (and Origin 3) scream that he needs time to get on the same page as his inside man.

It might not make for pretty viewing, but the 2025 Eels haven’t exactly been putting on a prime time show before this. Dylan Brown had a prime opportunity to step up and lead this year but instead he was offered and took frankly stupid money, took his sweet time to come to terms with that decision, then settled back into his supporting role. He adds minimal value to the rest of 2025, and while he’s been a good contributor for the Eels in his time here I don’t think he is owed a farewell tour.

The Game

After all of that, the only thing I can say with confidence is that the second half won’t be pretty. The Eels have proven adept at sticking with superior opposition for the first half, and I expect the same here with Moses coming back and adding ten metres to every set with his kicking game plus the attacking threat he presents as a runner. If Jack Williams is running off his shoulder we could see the Broncos edges opened up early and often.

Unfortunately the Eels are at the “believe it when I see it” stage when it comes to holding it together for a full 80 minutes. Again Moses and his composure will help, but the basic mistakes and panic football have to go. Space needs to be found for Josh Addo-Carr and Zac Lomax, who needs the chance to do more than just be a hitup mule coming out of his own 20.

It’s away from home, against a side with top four aspirations and playing some real good footy in recent weeks. It should be a comfortable win for the Broncos, but the chances of the upset remain. I’ll be watching hopeful, but certainly not expectant. That could sum up the rest of the 2025 season really.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Broncos 34 d Eels 16

Man of the Match: Ezra Mam

Gol

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