It’s funny how a team you’ve given up on can still hurt you so much, but the 2024 Parramatta Eels managed it last week by teasing, basically delivering the king of all upsets, then flittering it away with perhaps the most ten minutes of defence you’ll ever see. It’s clear Jason Ryles has his work cut out teaching this group to tackle, but until he arrives the Parramatta Eels are going to have to brush 40 points most weeks to be in with a sniff of victory.

The good news for the Eels? Their opponents this round have actually conceded more points than they have over the last three weeks, so the chance to surprise the Roosters and run up a score is still in play. The bad news is that the Roosters still managed to win two of those three games, so points will be once again flowing freely at both ends of the field.

There’s four weeks to go and three very winnable games on the horizon beyond the tri-colours this week, but the mental toll of a devastating loss like last week cannot be underestimated. Will the Eels shake it off and continue to give it a red hot crack, or will the weight of disappointment finally break this brave yet brittle side? On with the preview!

Game Info

Date: Friday August 16, 2024
Venue: Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Grant Atkins
Bunker: Wyatt Raymond
Weather: Mild, decent chance of rain
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Time to gloat. Here’s a re-cap last week’s tip:

“I am weirdly confident that this Eels side will have another red hot crack at taking down a higher rated opponent. They might even cause an upset.

If I was punting on Parra, I’d be looking at the pick your own line market and taking Parra at +12.5 points, which is returning $2.15.”

Yes, the Eels let a win slip, and the match officials were huge contributors with a couple of diabolical calls, but from a punting perspective the tip romped home.

This week?

This is a star-studded Roosters team playing an Eels team that could be on a low after what was a gut wrenching result against the Panthers. I’m expecting Parra to again have a red hot crack, but I’m not as confident as I was last wee. It’s just a really big ask.

So for this week there is no punting tip. Just look on.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Latest Line-ups: NRL.com

Ryan Matterson’s season is likely done thanks to three broken ribs, he is replaced on the bench by…. Maika Sivo? I’m not even going to pretend to know how this will play out. If the side runs out as named, an Eels side notorious for collapsing late in halves will run out with a hooker and outside back on the bench, with one of two bench forwards coming back from a long layoff. Even through my eternally blocked nose I can smell the fishiness of that.

In contrast, the Roosters have flooded their bench with big boppers to complement a starting front row that is all rep quality. Trent Robinson is playing with an open hand here, but given the Eels are playing aces and eights for the rest of the year his confidence is understandable.

Holding On

Welcome back, maybe? On the bench? Who even knows.

So it turned out that the strong defence against the Warriors said more about them than it did us, though I should have paid more attention to the late capitulation of points that New Zealand ran through rather than attributing it to a side that got a lead and put the cue in the rack. These are combinations of players that have barely played together, changing week to week, implementing a system that has never really held together for an extended period of time. I can’t wait for the arrival of Jason Ryles if only for the promise of a fresh start defensively.

The outside backs in particular are both technically deficient and poor in combination. Blaize Talagi defends like a kid who has always been quicker than his rivals, using speed to cover positioning mistakes, something that just doesn’t cut it at the NRL level. Jake Tago is high effort but the speed of first grade attack will often catch him out, while Will Penisini has shown elite defensive ability in the past but whatever we are doing this year is mixing with his skills like beer with a milkshake. Sean Russell has shown flashes both ways too, terrible at some points and solid at others, but his tackling at centre needs work and he’d benefit from an extended period in the same combination.

It really is as simple as “can the Eels score in the high 30s”, and while this Roosters team hasn’t been good defensively for a month, they have managed to hold against the lesser lights of the NRL. A month ago they held the struggling Tigers to 6 and the Dragons to 12, the Raiders in Canberra to 16 and the Warriors to 18. It has usually taken finals pedigree to collapse the Sydney systems, and Parramatta, despite having some talented attacking weapons, doesn’t have that.

On the other hand, we’ve put up back-to-back strong weeks against a Warriors team with everything to play for and then the premiers-in-waiting. Sydney is probably the softest defence they have faced in a month, and if the hot starts can continue to four games in a row, good things could be on the cards. Hot starts have been a thing in recent Eels/Roosters clashes, unfortunately all by the opposition, and if the team that has surprised three sides in a row surprises a fourth, shame on them, but two quick early tries is the start of the very slim path to victory for Parramatta.

If you’ve got a third hand, you can then carry the fact that the Roosters backline could score against this team with every touch if they really wanted to. Tedesco through the middle of the ruck or chiming into the backline, Suaalii and Manu in the centres are miles ahead of the men opposite them, while Tupou and Young are several classes above their Eels equivalents as finishers. If they come out determined and we are a bit down, this will be a massacre.

The Game

Kelma Tuilagi makes his return after a fair stint on the sidelines

It really doesn’t matter what an opposition’s tendencies are or how their strengths match up against the Eels weaknesses, which makes this whole preview job a whole lot easier. It is simply: can their backline and playmakers take advantage of the Eels frail edges and inevitable late capitulation? In the case of the Roosters, that is an emphatic “Yes, they can, and how.”

Because I’m an Eels fan and thus a fool, the hope remains. If what they’ve delivered for the last 38 years hasn’t sapped that hope from us then it is never being taken. Still, if those flickers of flame that almost delivered one of the great upsets last week can survive this match, I’ll consider this a win. The last three games are crucial to avoiding the embarrassment of the spoon, and the Eels’ spirit, however much that is worth, has survived to this point. Just get through one more week and then genuine chances of victory and a strong finish to the year pave the way to Mad Monday.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Sydney 42 d Parramatta 24

Man of the Match: Joseph Manu

Gol

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