This Friday night is best described as a test of faith for Parramatta supporters. Will you brave the cold, the soaking wet and the inevitable rush of loudmouthed Broncos fans (seriously, every year, no matter where I’ve sat at Parramatta, there is some mouthy, drunk Brisbane fan behind me) to go out and watch the 2024 Parramatta Eels sans Mitchell Moses and Clint Gutherson? Those that choose to do so when they could just curl up on the couch and, most importantly, have the option of turning off and doing something else at any point, they are the true believers.

Even the silver linings are poisonous in this one. An against-the-odds win would be led by a young half who is already leaving for the opportunity to not be stuck behind two representative halves for the next four years, and a fullback looking to set a record for “fewest first grade games before dragging fans through a protracted contract negotiation”. The rest of the youth movement hoped for by many fans hasn’t come to fruition, likely because most of those kids are still a year or two away. Heck, Talagi and Sanders are probably a year or two away, but the club has put itself in a position where they are our depth. When you can’t drop a player like Maika Sivo for his effort against Manly because you’ve spent four roster spots on magic beans instead of footballers; well if I did something that incompetent at my job I’d be sacked.

Yep, it’s going to be that kind of preview folks. I’m going to sit through a cold and miserable night of football, but I’m not going to pretend to be happy about it. Why? Because no matter what team runs out there, I’m stuck as a Parramatta fan, and there is still that slight chance of everything coming together and this being the line in the sand moment for the 2024 Eels. Let’s see how that could happen.

Game Info

Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 8:00PM AEST
Referee: Gerard Sutton
Bunker: Grant Atkins
Weather: Cool, wet
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

There isn’t anything attractive about being an Eels punter this week. Sure, there are longer odds about the Eels winning, but those odds probably aren’t long enough, the points start is conservative and Parra has struggled against lesser teams.

I can’t go tipping Brisbane to win in various markets – that hurts too much to contemplate.

Therefore I’m diving into the total match points market – but only if the rain eases off. If it’s wet weather footy, keep your powder dry.

So, on a rain free night I think there will be plenty of points on offer. I’m tipping 51.5 total match points or more. The return is $2.80. If you’re really bold, an extra eight points takes the return to $6.20.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Blaize Talagi 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Ethan Sanders 7. Dylan Brown 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Makahesi Makatoa 16. Joe Ofahengaue 17. Kelma Tuilagi.

18. Luca Moretti 19. Morgan Harper 20. Daejarn Asi 21. Wiremu Greig 22. Brendan Hands

Russell earns a recall

With bye round surgery confirming our suspicions that Clint Gutherson was indeed busted up pretty badly, Blaize Talagi is being thrown into the job at the back after the equivalent of watching a training video and serving his mum pretending to be a customer. I’m only half kidding, his fullback transformation began this off-season, and he’s spent most of the year around the first grade team filling in various roles instead of plying his trade in Cup. Last year he was playing centre and five eighth for the junior sides. He’s not some fullback prodigy coming through, he’s a special talent that we’re hoping to mould into a custodian. Right now, that mould is still very squishy.

Sean Russell comes in for Morgan Harper, not the guy I’d have dropped but maybe Maika wrote a really convincing apology letter to Brad Arthur after the Manly game. Russell killed it at centre in Cup last week, and honestly one game of form is enough for me to pin my hopes on at this point. He’s faster than Harper, and that might be what got him the job against a lightning Brisbane backline.

In the pack, Bryce Cartwright returns via the bench, he’ll be a bit underdone but hopefully not restricted anymore after a rib injury. Brendan Hands is again left out, the most relevant part of that being that it requires 80 minutes of football from Joey Lussick. Makatoa is the winner of bench middle musical chairs this week, ahead of Moretti and Greig in the reserves. If he holds onto his first touch he’s already the best Eels bench middle in a month.

Brisbane Broncos

1. Reece Walsh 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Selwyn Cobbo 5. Deine Mariner 6. Ezra Mam 7. Josh Rogers 8. Corey Jensen 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Brendan Piakura 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan. 14. Tyson Smoothy 15. Xavier Willison 16. Kobe Hetherington 17. Jack Gosiewski.

18. Tristan Sailor 19. Fletcher Baker 20. Ben Te Kura 21. Jordan Pereira 22. Blake Mozer

A few outs for Brisbane, with halfback Adam Reynolds the most notable, perhaps because other injuries have forced the Broncos to dig deep into the reserves and field Josh Rogers at halfback. Rogers is a 27 year old Queensland Cup veteran with one first grade game to his name, the Queensland Cup derby from round 27 last year where both the Broncos and Storm rested nearly every regular first grader on the roster. I turned to my only source of Queensland Cup analysis, The Maroon Observer, for anything on Josh Rogers, and the best I could find was him being described as a “guy”. He had a good year last year, but Trai Fuller he ain’t. Given the Eels probably added a zero to Fuller’s contract, Rogers will be primed for a big one.

Elsewhere, Corey Oates has come in for Jesse Arthars, while I must have missed Jack Gosiewski signing with Brisbane, last I remember he was at the Cowboys. He’s pushed Fletcher Baker and Ben Te Kura to the reserves, which either says a lot about how those two are going, or Kevin Walters as a coach.

Up Against It

Four games in, and already running us through the contract wringer. A true Eel already!

There are paths to victory here, but almost all of them require the Broncos to be below their best. Luckily they’ll have every chance to be exactly that as they adjust to long term life without Reynolds steering the ship. Their record without Reynolds isn’t as bad as you’d expect, but in a game where the path to victory is exploiting the rookie fullback and noted weak links in the defensive line, it is a big boost for Parramatta that the guy most capable of directing those assaults is on the sidelines.

While his boot and composure will be missed, the Broncos will most need to replace his ability to pick the moments to attack wider. Ezra Mam is going to be dangerous enough on his own against lead-boot defenders like Lane, Lussick and Matterson in the middle, but timing early spreads to players with significant speed and talent advantages like Walsh, Cobbo and Staggs, giving them the opportunity to use those skills, that will be the safest path to victory for Brisbane. Mam dancing a bit and not finding any room and Rogers firing out to the backline without setup or plan would make things a lot easier for a fragile Eels defensive line.

That speed advantage is going to keep Eels fans chewing their nails all game long. While the second half collapse discourse has been overblown by a Manly game where the momentum shift was driven by lack of respect for possession and not fitness or mental toughness, it is a case of identifying the right problem for the wrong reasons. This is a side with plenty of form on the board in turning off for significant periods of the game, usually just before and especially just after halftime. If Jake Trbojevic and Nathan Brown can exploit your “stuck in mud” lateral movement, what will Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh do to you?

The Eels are going to need to rely on their pack in this one, and while that has been the plan since 2017, Rugby League Eye Test made a fairly compelling case as to why that’s not a great idea, mainly because this pack concedes more metres per run than almost any other and is the worst at making their own metres. We’ve been watching the pinstripes for years with offloads and occasional ballplaying from Paulo, Lane, Matterson and Hopgood, but at their primary job: making yards, the Eels forwards aren’t very good, and they’re even worse at stopping them.

Still, the forwards are what we have right now, and there is still upside to all of them, even the out of form ones. Ryan Matterson looked good at times in the Manly game and if he can play with some fire he is a difference maker in all aspects: offloading, hard line running, ballplaying and even defence (as long as he’s tackling a five eighth he has a grudge against). Lane has to be on his last chance and hopefully he can become the first Eel in nearly 80 years to come out during the week saying he needs to lift and actually lifts. Paulo had some of his best games in years off the bench to start this season, while a two week refresher for RCG was sorely needed.

Players like Matterson, Lane and Cartwright may be nearing or hitting that 30 year old mark, but all have very recently delivered the best football of their careers. There needs to be a plan for the future (and right now I certainly don’t see one, but hey, at least we’ve got another roster spot free now that Ron Massey Cup player and top 30 Eels forward Tevita Taumoepenu has surfaced in the South Sydney reserve grade squad), but there is life in this team yet. Against a tough Brisbane pack with some real killers in it with Haas and Carrigan, players that have eaten the Eels forwards as a snack in recent meetings, it is a great chance for the pack to start their turnaround.

Not that the backs don’t have something to contribute to a potential victory themselves. Somebody needs to be sniffing around Dylan Brown every time he runs, and Blaize Talagi may be well suited to that role. Clint Gutherson hasn’t been able to provide support to Brown given he needs to be the alternate playmaking option to Dylan as well, but Talagi being told his attacking game is to follow on Brown’s shoulder all game wouldn’t be the worst gameplan for a young fullback. It is tough because Brown often makes his half breaks cutting back on the inside, away from the support of his centres, but he’s been doing it for long enough that somebody surely has to notice “there might be some tries in this for me” if they support the poor blokes. Even better, if guys like Lane, Matterson and Cartwright could be there on his hip, though the NRL’s obstruction rules these days usually take those runners out of the play if used as a decoy; if they hang around in the line hoping for a break from Dylan they are asking for any potential try to be called back on review.

The Game

This team will go as far as Dylan can carry them this week

That’s all I’ve got. This isn’t a game to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the Broncos; while they aren’t having a strong start to the season, they’ve had their excuses and if you had to create players that are kryptonite for Parramatta’s defence they’d look an awful lot like Ezra Mam, Reece Walsh and Selwyn Cobbo (or maybe Danny Levi, Jordan Rapana and Josh Kerr).

We need the Broncos to be below their peak, which is most of their performances in 2024 and is even more likely with key absences and rumours of Mam playing hurt. Haas and Carrigan could win this one on their own if previous form against Parramatta is anything to go by, but the Eels forwards just absolutely have to stand up to save this season and if it is ever going to happen, this is the week for it. Half the spine and two of the Eels best are out, the two players who drive performance when times are tough and the two guys I’d nominate as “players I’d least be able to look in the eye if I played like Maika Sivo did last week”. If they care at all, for their first grade futures, for their coach, for their legacies, they’ll put in here. Will that be enough? I bloody well hope so.

As the famous saying goes, it’s the hope that kills you. I’m going in hopeful, but my tip more accurately reflects how I feel about the 2024 NRL season and the Eels chances of turning it around. Still, I’ll be out there Friday night, cold and wet, but hopeful.

Prediction: Brisbane 36 d Parramatta 10

Man of the Match: Reece Walsh

Gol

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