Congratulations to Clint Gutherson, RCG and Mitchell Moses on their selection in the New South Wales side, which I have unaffectionately nicknamed “Freddy’s dead cat bounce”. A decade of playing a Queensland side stacked with future immortals, followed by a procession of poorly coached failures when said immortals retired has left me with little love for State of Origin these days, so I’m not seeing many positives to losing three of our best for a dead rubber in what might be the most embarrassing Blues Origin series since 1995.

The Origin losses are exacerbated by the NRL’s continued incompetence when creating a balanced draw. While I appreciate the challenge of creating a schedule that pleases broadcasters, pays lip service to player welfare and stacks in as many marquee matchups as possible, the basic flaws and repeated patterns year after year suggest the NRL is not getting value for money from whoever they are paying to do this draw work for them.

An Eels side that has had six current players (Paulo, Moses, Matterson, Campbell-Gillard, Gutherson, Lane) in or around the Origin system over the last few years may not deserve the consideration of a Brisbane or Penrith for two pre-game byes, but they certainly shouldn’t be the only club to not get a single week off before an Origin game. Do the Warriors even have six Origin eligible players in their best 17? They get a week off before an Origin game, and we don’t. It’s a joke, much like playing three teams in a row off of byes is a joke, and being punished with a five day turnaround for taking a game to Darwin is a joke. Our opponents this week haven’t fared much better: they played 3 games in 11 days earlier this year across Brisbane, Melbourne and Auckland.

Would I be so mad if the Eels hadn’t had a slow start to the year and put themselves in this “every game counts” scenario? Probably not, but I’m club before state, and that’s why us New South Welshmen don’t “get” Origin. You Queenslanders can get back to me about that after you are forced to cheer for Paul Gallen fourth tackle hitups for a decade. Easy to sing when you’re winning. Anyway, on with the preview!

Game Info

Date: Saturday, July 8th, 2023
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 5:30PM AEST
Referee: Adam Gee
Bunker: Kasey Badger
Weather: Cool, windy, dry
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

The speculation has delivered in consecutive weeks, firstly with J’Maine Hopgood scoring in an Eels victory, and then Will Penisini crossing in Parra’s win over the Dolphins.

When you’re on a good thing, stick to it. I reckon Junior will have a huge match against the Warriors, so why not tip him to get a try in an Eels win! The return is $11.

Happy, responsible punting,

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Sean Russell 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Bailey Simonsson 5. Isaac Lumelume 6. Ryan Matterson 7. Daejarn Asi 8. Ofahiki Ogden 9. Brendan Hands 10. Junior Paulo 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Andrew Davey 13. J’maine Hopgood.14. Luca Moretti 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Shaun Lane 17. Makahesi Makatoa.

18. Haze Dunster 19. Waqa Blake 20. Ky Rodwell 21. Matt Doorey 22. Jack Murchie

A lot riding on the shoulders of Sean Russell this week

We’ll talk a lot more about Clint Gutherson in the next section, for now just know he is replaced by Sean Russell. Russell has played some fullback through junior footy, but it will be a big ask of him replacing the King for a day. Isaac Lumelume gets his second game in Blue and Gold replacing Russell on the wing.

Matterson and Asi combine in the halves, reprising their roles from the last time Mitchell Moses was on Origin duty. In the pack Ofahiki Ogden starts for Reagan Campbell-Gillard, while Shaun Lane returns via the interchange bench leaving Andrew Davey and Bryce Cartwright in the starting side. He should do well as an impact forward. Luca Moretti replaces Matterson on the bench, he’s looked better every chance he’s had and should do a job for us.

It is also Maika Sivo’s 100th game in first grade. Let’s see how many tries the bunker can deny him to celebrate the occasion.

New Zealand Warriors

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Rocco Berry 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Luke Metcalf 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Tohu Harris. 14. Dylan Walker 15. Bayley Sironen 16. Tom Ale 17. Freddy Lussick.

18. Brayden Wiliame 20. Ronald Volkman 21. Kalani Going 22. Zyon Maiu’u 23. Taine Tuaupiki.

All eyes are on Shaun Johnson, who was at risk of missing this game to be with his wife who is about to give birth any day now, but at last check he looks to be a starter. Ronald Volkman will be the replacement if Johnson stays home. It’d be a big boost for the Eels if Johnson doesn’t play, but that kind of scheduling luck has eluded the Eels this year.

It’s also a milestone game for several Warriors, including Johnson who will line up for his 200th game at the club. They are unaffected by Origin and only have two regular first graders in the casualty/naughty boy ward, Josh Curran suspended and Jazz Tevaga injured.

One interesting thread is the size of the Warriors bench. Only one noted middle is present in Tom Ale, with Freddy Lussick and Dylan Walker much smaller bodies (though Walker has played a roving role in the middle for much of this year). Wayde Egan can shift to the middle when Lussick is on the field, but has missed a lot of time with head knocks this year, and Bayley Sironen is better known as an edge player. Compared to the Eels bench this is a size mismatch.

The Metre Battle

Rugby League Eye Test has again made my life easy this week, updating their season-long analysis of metres conceded on each play-the-ball and revealing some interesting trends for both the Eels and their opposition this week. First, the Eels, who are among the worst teams in the NRL for conceding metres. They are outright worst in metres conceded on tackles two and four, near the bottom on tackle one. This matches up with lived experience, the Eels are notorious for losing the play-the-ball speed battle as they prefer to give away a quick ruck rather than risk a penalty or ruck infringement. Is it a terrible strategy? Surrendering five metres per set to avoid penalties isn’t a terrible trade-off in my eyes.

A loss for NSW, a win for the Eels

Conceding metres in the middle of the park might be a killer for most clubs, but most clubs don’t have the kicking game of Mitchell Moses or a pack led by Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard to overcome the disadvantage. With the ball the Eels are the leading metre makers on tackle one and four, second best on tackle three and fifth best on tackle two. You’ll see a lot of end-to-end football in a Parramatta game, and the Eels have relied on winning the discipline battle to gain ascendancy in contests. We’ve seen the results when the Eels have held the ball this year; impressive victories against Souths and Penrith and a first half demolition of the Dolphins being the highlights.

This week, the irresistible force meets the immovable object, as the Warriors hold the best middle of the park defence in the NRL, conceding the fewest metres in the league on tackles one, three and four. Without the kicking game of Moses and facing the toughest middle defence in the league, the pressure is going to be on the Eels forwards to enforce their will on their opponents. They managed it against Souths, who have a similarly strong middle defence, but that was assisted by a near perfect completion rate.

With the ball the Warriors are about as poor at making metres as the Eels are at defending them. It is surprising considering the quality of Addin Fonua-Blake, Tohu Harris and Mitchell Barnett, but there is a shortage of depth in the Warriors pack and they have struggled for consistency at hooker with Wayde Egan regularly missing due to HIA or injury. They were dominated in atrocious conditions last week, well below their season average in completions and on the wrong end of the metres battle.

The Gutherson Effect

The question that will define this game is this; “how do the Eels play without Clint Gutherson?” In the brief times the Eels fullback has been off the park in season 2023, Parramatta’s defence has leaked like a NSW Origin team the night before announcement. Some of that comes down to playing with 12 men, sure, but this will be our first chance in many years to see just how important the King is to this Eels side through his absence.

Clint Gutherson has missed just one NRL match for the Eels since round 6, 2018, when he made his return from an ACL tear. That was the final round of the 2021 season, where Brad Arthur rested everybody he could when the Eels position in the finals couldn’t change. Gutherson’s teammates in his return back in 2018 included Bevan French, Corey Norman, Tony Williams, Beau Scott and Kane Evans, and the only player in that side still an Eel is Mitchell Moses, playing his 22nd game in Blue and Gold. Only two members of that team other than Moses and Gutherson are still in the NRL, if you can call Tepai Moeroa and George Jennings (combined first grade appearances in 2023: one) still in the NRL.

That’s a lot of words to say that I have no idea how the team will play without Gutherson. He’s crucial to defence both as an organiser (as any fullback should be) and as the last line, his effort areas are unmatched in the NRL. In attack he has been a key playmaker in the absence of Dylan Brown, and even more so the last time Moses was out and the halves combination was Matterson and Asi. Sean Russell has some fullback experience, but he will be nowhere near as polished a playmaker as Gutherson is, and that will be where we miss the King the most.

Next Myth Up

Happy hundreth Maika!

Next man up mentality is getting a lot of attention recently, but to me the term over-simplifies two core tenants of a successful rugby league team. Players don’t play well in the NRL because their club has some special mentality or grit that is lacking in others. Players play well in the NRL because clubs foster systems that create the smoothest path for success, combined with decent recruitment and roster building. You’ll notice only winning teams talk about next man up mentality, likely to deflect from the true source of their success and keep lowly clubs chasing the dragon of culture instead of building solid club foundations.

The victory against Manly without three of the starting spine shows just how far the Eels systems have come in 2023. Parramatta has always been a good attacking team in recent years, but too often they were able to be completely shut down by an opposition. Gameplans didn’t adjust on the fly; if plan A didn’t work there was no plan B. Every loss to South Sydney was testament to that.

Trent Barrett likely deserves a lot of credit for his role in restructuring the Eels’ attack, which has allowed Daejarn Asi to slot in and adequately cover for Dylan Brown and a procession of back rowers to come in and look good off the shoulder of Mitchell Moses. This will be the biggest test of Barrett’s systems; the Eels heavily rely on the individual talents of Gutherson, perhaps even more so than Moses. If the Parramatta attack doesn’t miss a beat this weekend, we are officially a scary side.

The club has also taken a lot of flak for roster management. Some of that is well deserved, there have been times this year we could certainly have done with another NRL quality outside back instead of having three empty roster spots plus a couple more held by players who were never seeing first grade this year. Yet next man up is a lot easier when that next man has the talent of Daejarn Asi or Ofahiki Ogden, or develops their game in our system like Bailey Simonsson or Brendan Hands. Good players coming into quality systems, that’s how you establish continuity of success in the NRL. Brad Arthur’s men don’t “want it more” or feel a need to “not let the team down” this year any more than others, they’ve just been put into a better position to succeed because of a well oiled attacking plan.

The Game

You’ll notice this preview doesn’t feature much content on our opponents, because frankly this game is all about how the Eels adjust to life without their Origin stars. The Warriors have been plucky this year, but their record against elite teams is terrible. Their best win is over the inconsistent Sharks back in round 5. They were soundly done in by Souths and Penrith, run down by Melbourne and needed a flurry of late tries to get close to Brisbane. New Zealand are a good story, but they are where they are because they beat the teams lower than them on the ladder. That is not where Parramatta are.

The Warriors have more than enough in them to beat an Eels side that falls apart without one too many of their key playmakers. They defend well against good forward packs, though last week they were run over by a Souths pack that the Eels dominated. If the Eels ask too much of the forwards like Cartwright, Matterson, Hopgood and Lane, all players who love an offload, they could find themselves defending good ball far too much and then the mistakes in positioning and the exploitation of a rookie fullback will come.

On the other side, the Eels can’t be too conservative and rely on the middle to provide a bulk of opportunities. The Warriors defend the middle well and need to be challenged by wide runners and getting the ball to dangerous players like Penisini and Simonsson with some room to move. So we need to test the Warriors on the edges while holding the ball and maintaining discipline. Easy huh?

There is no hiding it, for the Eels to win six in a row for the first time since 2017 (and before that, our finals run in 2009) they need to overcome massive odds. None of the starting spine, including our first meaningful game without Clint Gutherson in six years. A tough opponent with everything to play for and no such Origin issues. If Parramatta can win here, that is a scary, scary prospect for the rest of the NRL. My tip below is undoubtedly aspirational, but I have more faith in this version of the Eels than any in recent years. Let’s do it. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 20 d New Zealand 18

Man of the Match: Junior Paulo

Gol

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