In a season where we made a grand final and put on one of the great Eels victories in the qualifier, my favourite memory of 2022 may be watching dejected Bulldogs fans streaming out of CommBank Stadium shortly after halftime on a beautiful Saturday afternoon of football in August. They arrived in such numbers and with such gusto for a side at the bottom of the ladder, and the result was so embarrassing that at work on Monday they’d be telling people they spent their Saturday at a Masked Wolf concert.

Pipe down, Bulldogs fans.

The Bulldogs are one of the great myths of modern rugby league. The “family club” has spent the last decade knifing itself in the back and being a rugby league personification of the “stick in your own bike wheel” meme. Only the pitiful Tigers keep them from the longest finals drought of current sides, and the one premiership they have managed in the NRL era was won with a side built on salary cap cheating.

Now we’re in the new era of Bulldogs football, led by one Phil Gould. Gus’s operational abilities might be the most overrated talent in rugby league since Braith Anasta. When he isn’t on Twitter spouting conspiracy theories that would make your racist uncle blush, Gould is throwing an open chequebook around as a disguise for clever roster management. Let’s see how he goes at reviving the ever dwindling junior base of Canterbury and fighting the trends against poker machine revenue at the club most reliant on it to survive. A Chinese meal ain’t fixing that, Gus.

If you think Gould deserves any credit as an identifier of talent and a manager of clever contracts remember one thing: he once signed Waqa Blake to a four year extension that makes him one of the highest paid centres in the game. And he has the nerve to call the HIA rules the greatest abomination in rugby league history.

Game Info

Date: Sunday, April 16, 2023
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 4:00PM AEST
Referee: Chris Butler
Bunker: Kasey Badger
Weather: Warm, dry
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Last week, the short odds on offer for the Eels had me recommending that you keep your coin in the pocket.

I feel that my call was vindicated when Parra won but failed to cover the line.

This week’s odds against the Dogs are just as prohibitively short and I’m not sure why. I know that there are a couple of key outs for the Dogs but does it justify a -9.5 line?

Keep your wallet closed again, but if you want to put a couple of dollars down on a “value” bet, I’m tipping Dylan Brown to lift in attack and get on the try scorers list. He’s at $4.50 to score a try in an Eels win.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Will Penisini 4. Sean Russell 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Bryce Cartwright 13. Ryan Matterson.14. J’maine Hopgood 15. Brendan Hands 16. Wiremu Greig 17. Makahesi Makatoa.

18. Jake Arthur 19. Matt Doorey.

Only the one change to the Eels squad, as Junior Paulo returns from suspension and pushes Wiremu Greig to the bench and Jack Murchie out of the side. No other changes are to be expected given the 24 hour turnaround between the Easter Monday game and team naming, but as best we can tell the squad pulled up without issue and will run out as named.

With Paulo returning we will get our first look at how Brad Arthur utilises his full strength forward pack. Last week saw J’maine Hopgood play 52 minutes and Ryan Matterson 73, and I’d expect Junior to take some of those minutes from Matterson, who averaged about 55-60 minutes in the middle last year. Paulo and RCG are both above their 2022 pace for average minutes and probably don’t sustain near 60 minutes each per game, especially Reg who could do with a rest after working hard in the first four weeks then holding the pack up without Junior for the last two.

Canterbury Bulldogs

1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 15. Jayden Okunbor 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Tevita Pangai Jr 16. Corey Waddell 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner. 14. Josh Reynolds 17. Ryan Sutton 20. Jackson Topine 21. Andrew Davey.

21. Sam Hughes 22. Declan Casey.

Viliame Kikau has been ruled out for three months with a ruptured pec and misses this one. He joins Josh Addo-Carr and Luke Thompson on the notable list of Canterbury injuries, though Fa’amanu Brown, Chris Patolo and Franklin Pele are also unavailable. Corey Waddell is likely to be his direct replacement, but Sutton moving to lock and Faitala-Mariner playing on the edge is another potential option for coach Ciraldo.

The other change from the named lineup is the movement of Jayden Okunbor to the wing in place of Braidon Burns. Okunbor hasn’t had a happy career as a flanker, known for his brain snaps and poor defence, but the ending of his brief experiment as an edge forward provides Andrew Davey and Jackson Topine a chance in the top grade.

There’s a healthy contingent of former Eels across the Bulldogs squad. Reed Mahoney you’ll already be sick of hearing about as people try to spin “took a load of coin” as some kind of noble endeavour for his switch to the enemy, while Hayze Perham has done a solid but unspectacular job at fullback. Davey was the Ray Stone before Ray Stone, the popular hard worker that made the most of his go at the Eels. Then he moved on to Manly and Canterbury, so good decisions aren’t his forte. Sam Hughes looms in the extended squad but is unlikely to get a run.

Us

Despite a stacked early draw and a few key absences for the Eels, we’re reaching the point in the season where statistics start showing meaningful trends in team performance. There’s a few points that don’t make for pretty viewing that I want to address.

Junior has lost time to make up for

The Parramatta gameplan of “through the middle” still sees them up among the competition leaders in metres gained, and the Eels remain one of the best offloading teams in the competition. Unfortunately they are also conceding metres at a league worst rate, and are down the bottom of the table for conceding offloads too. It probably makes Parramatta games very entertaining to watch from a neutral perspective, but the lack of quality field position has blunted the Eels’ close range attack. That is the Parramatta bread and butter, whether it is Clint Gutherson looking for the cutout to Sivo or Moses and Brown looking for hard running back rowers off their hips.

The defensive line speed just has to improve. Rugby League Eye Test could do my job for me each week if he only wrote about the Eels, and his breakdown of metres made and conceded per tackle makes some ugly viewing for Parramatta fans. From tackle two through tackle five, the Eels concede the most or near the most metres per run. Some of this is by design; the Eels are notoriously fast in getting out of the ruck and avoiding backbreaking ruck penalties. Some of it is because we get dominated by the first runner then exploited by dummy halves running at no markers on far too many midfield tackles. It’d be a lot easier for the Eels to put some attack on late in yardage sets if every single one of them wasn’t starting inside our own 20.

This lack of field position is compounded by a squad that aren’t making their own things happen. The Eels are worst in the NRL for tackle breaks and down the bottom in line breaks. Matt Doorey is the second best tackle buster on the roster this year and he’s in jersey 19 this weekend. Some of this is the lack of emphasis the Eels put on kick returns and early tackle running, where outside backs can rack up tackle breaks running across field. A lot more of it is not giving players good opportunities to get their opposite one-on-one. The Parramatta outside backs attack with structure rather than individual brilliance, but some one-on-one dominance wouldn’t go astray. We’re also the worst in the NRL for bombs dropped, which can’t be good.

Time to come good, geezer.

The good news is that their opponents this week concede the most missed tackles in the NRL, don’t make that many tackle breaks themselves and make even fewer line breaks. On a dry track in the warm sun it is the perfect chance to get some early ball to Will Penisini, Dylan Brown and Maika Sivo, especially after the success the Eels found against the Tigers when playing attacking football and not just grinding it out for yardage.

I don’t think it is far away from all coming together with the ball. Hodgson will either fit in or start to see his minutes slashed for the dynamic Brendan Hands. The forward pack will start to settle now we’ve got the best lineup out there for the first time all year. Dylan Brown will start to adjust to his status as a target for defensive lines and the outside backs will be better for the run last week. One of them at least can’t be worse, surely.

Them

While the new look Bulldogs have had some troubles of their own in keeping their best lineup on the field, they’ve got plenty of the same problems as the last few years. Their attack is the third worst in the competition and defensively they are one lousy point conceded better than the Eels. Their halves have a combined two try assists between them, while hooker Reed Mahoney has five. That’s a lot of crash balls.

The Tigers have the worst attack in the competition and the Eels made them look like all stars last week, so this is by no means a guarantee of an easier time for Parramatta defensively this weekend. While the absence of Josh Addo-Carr (or more specifically, his blinding speed) is most welcome, the return of Tevita Pangai Junior could be a massive risk if he isn’t coming back underdone. He loves an offload and could cause havoc in mid field on late tackle carries if he finds defenders on the back foot.

The biggest threat will be Matt Burton’s boot. While he isn’t evolving as a playmaker at the pace the Bulldogs probably expected when paying him as an elite half, his league best bombs will combine well with the Parramatta side’s love of dropping a bomb. At best that provides tries, at worst it gives repeat sets and Reed Mahoney a chance to direct his crash balls at players he knows the every weakness of.

The Bulldogs have struggled late in games, winning the last 20 minutes of a game only once this season. That includes letting the Tigers back into a contest they were dominating on a hyped up day at Belmore and the Warriors running them down after conceding a 14-6 lead. I haven’t watched enough Bulldogs footy to know if it is fitness, but I’d suggest a team led around by Kyle Flanagan isn’t a team that has mastered game management in tough situations. Parramatta has had some good late surges themselves, but last week were dominated in the middle and were torn to shreds late in the game. If the Eels middle can hold their own I’d say there is a good chance that Parramatta can run away with this game late.

The Game

While Reed Mahoney might know the Eels players well, the Parramatta forwards will certainly know Reed Mahoney. Opposition sides would pinpoint Reed in the line and target him mercilessly last year, knowing a bounce off or a good play-the-ball would come from making first contact with the smallest man on the park. Junior Paulo better be licking his lips for the chance to be that opposition forward.

I’m feeling a big one coming from Dylan Brown

I’m hoping to see a bit more adventure from the Parramatta attack. Last week felt like a game from a team that hadn’t won in a while, playing not to lose after getting out to a lead. The attack was humming, nearly every attacking opportunity became a try, but the team became content to just play through the middle and leave the Tigers in the arm wrestle. The Bulldogs will need to be put away.

It sounds like Jayden Okunbor will be on the wing, possibly the worst defensive winger in the competition. He needs to be targeted. Josh Reynolds has contributed little more than penalties from the bench, attack needs to be directed his way when he gets on the park. Mitchell Moses should remember how often Hayze Perham would be beaten for the ball in the air and trying to isolate a charging Shaun Lane or Clint Gutherson on the fullback for attacking kicks.

Without Addo-Carr and Kikau, this is a must win for Parramatta. It’d be nice for the Bulldogs to show up like they did last week and play us into form, but after my overconfidence last week I’m going to settle for any victory here. It is still early days in the season, especially in terms of Parramatta’s combinations, but this Sunday presents a great opportunity for the Eels to get into a groove. A win that fans don’t treat like a loss would be a bonus too.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 32 d Canterbury 16

Man of the Match: Junior Paulo

Gol

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