We’re five weeks into the regular season, so it must be rematch time! The NRL draw remains as balanced as the diet of a 16-year old whose parents are away for the week, but one new wrinkle to season 2022 is the ability of the Parramatta Eels to put teams away when they should. Sure, the sample size is one week, but if that is enough for Peter V’landys to declare widespread rule crackdowns because the mythical “wrestle” is back then it is enough for me to be confident in the Eels.

The round one game against the Titans was a testament to the cliche “a game of two halves”, a touch footy game in the first half that the Eels just came out ahead in, then a grind in the second where Parramatta scored only in penalty goals. The result was the right one in the end, but fans, coach and players will be hoping for a more consistent performance this go around. The Titans haven’t played a normal game all season, so I’m expecting something funky come Saturday night on the Gold Coast.

Game Info

Date: Saturday April 9, 2022
Venue: Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Kick-off: 7:35 PM AEST
Referee: Peter Gough
Broadcast: Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 22, Eels 11, Titans 11
Odds: Eels $1.40 Titans $3.00
Lines: Eels -7.5, over/under 39.5
Fact: The Eels have won their last six against the Gold Coast, with the four point victory in round one being the only time the Eels did not win by 16+

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

That was some win last Sunday, but how many tries did the Eels leave on the park during the first half!

The four point half time margin was no indicator of Parra’s early dominance, but it’s points on the board that matter. Sadly that meant that our team didn’t cover the 5.5 points start to the Dragons as tipped, so it was a losing punt last week.

I’m a bit wary of the first half market against the Titans. They’ll be guarded against a fast start after the round one clash, but there will still be no shortage of points scored.

For that reason, the line/over under market is worth exploring. Consider taking Parra at -7.5/over 38.5 total match points.

The return is $3.10, which seems decent value.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Waqa Blake 3. Will Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Ryan Matterson 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Mitch Rein.

18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Wiremu Greig 20. Hayze Perham 21. Samuel Loizou 22. Jake Arthur 23. Marata Niukore 24. Solomone Naiduki.

Hopefully the Eels’ luck has turned a corner, as we start to see additions to the squad instead of subtractions. Shaun Lane returns from a hamstring injury, while Marata Niukore and Jake Arthur return via the reserves. I wouldn’t expect either to be in the side on Saturday night, but Niukore will be pushing his way onto the ever-crowded bench sooner rather than later.

Mitch Rein makes his debut in blue and gold, after a few years in blue and yellow.

That bench is where we see the only unforced changes, with a miracle pass not enough for Bryce Cartwright to keep his spot while Wiremu Greig makes way for Ryan Matterson, pushed to the bench with Lane’s return. Mitch Rein is the new addition and makes his Eels debut, conveniently against his previous team. His presence indicates either a worry over Reed Mahoney’s health or a desire for Brad Arthur to give his star rake a rest. We’re once again critically short on outside backs coverage should there be an injury or HIA, and Dylan Brown has been so crucial that I don’t think moving him to centre is the answer in the event we need to cover a gap.

Gold Coast Titans

1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Corey Thompson 3. Phillip Sami 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Greg Marzhew 6. AJ Brimson 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. 14. Will Smith 15. Jarrod Wallace 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Kevin Proctor.

18. Paul Turner 19. Sam McIntyre 20. Sam Lisone 21. Herman Ese’ese 22. Sosefo Fifita 23. Tony Francis 24. Jacob Alick.

A couple of outs for the Titans, with Brian Kelly a victim of covid protocols while Jayden Campbell is nursing a karmic rib injury. That forces Phillip Sami into the centres, where hopefully he doesn’t find such an easy passage to the line this time around. “Never really a shot at being an Eel’ Jamayne Isaako gets a close up view of what he could have had as he replaces Campbell at fullback.

In the pack Justin Holbrook is starting to settle on his combinations, with Beau Fermor back after a covid enforced break and former representative player Jarrod Wallace forcing his way onto the bench in place of Sam Lisone. I’d expect David Fifita to shift back to the right after a cameo replacing Fermor on the left last week. His usage (or lack of it) has been a big talking point on the Titans this year, but we’ll get to that.

The Game

I’m not going to take a lot from that first matchup, a strange season opener where the Eels open attacking plan was derailed by the reshuffle forced by Sean Russell’s injury. Parramatta settled after some unacceptable defensive lapses and gained control of the ruck in the second half, burying Gold Coast in their own territory and grinding away a win. Based on the matches since, it is unlikely to represent the outcome we’ll get this week.

That outcome is especially open because crackdown season has come early this year. Emperor V’landys has declared war on the wrestle, a nebulous concept that will likely result in a lot of inconsistent six again calls this weekend and a few baffling sin binnings. Let’s hope the refs have got it out of their system by Saturday night. The quality of the games this year and the near unanimous sentiment that footy is much better in 2022 than it was in 2021 had me hoping V’looney Tunes football was dead and buried, but evidently the voices of Phil Gould, Des Hasler and a couple of mythical people who wrote letters to the NRL matter more than hundreds of thousands of satisfied fans.

The King is going to be fired up after the last time these teams played

Assuming the game isn’t ruined by the crackdown, I’d expect the Eels to look left in attack early and often, exploiting the defensive stylings of Greg Marzhew once more. While I can’t give you the exact number of tries conceded by Marzhew this year because whoever is running the Fox Sports Lab has forgotten to turn the calendar to 2022, the right edge has conceded 9 of the 13 tries scored against the Gold Coast this year (thanks Stats Insider). Of course, the Eels right edge has conceded 10 of the 15 tries scored against them this year, so it is a problem both teams will face.

There are some statistical anomalies in how the Titans play. They are near the bottom of the NRL for possession percentage, but also make the third fewest tackles in the league. This likely means they don’t get numbers into the tackle, so maybe the wrestle won’t be a big problem for them. Parramatta has made fewer total tackles than the Titans, but has also had 54% possession in their games (best in the NRL), versus the Titans 48%.

The Titans are fifth for missed tackles, a category the Eels lead which might explain some of the poor defensive performance this year. Considering the possession and total tackle counts for Parramatta, those missed tackle counts are a huge concern. Not all missed tackles are created equal: Mitchell Moses was charged with a bunch of misses last weekend for getting in the way of Moses Suli long enough for the cover to drag him down, but losing first contact has not been the Parramatta way in recent seasons and if the Titans middle buckles down they could make the Eels pay.

Where Parramatta has helped themselves is discipline, making the third fewest errors in the NRL and giving away the fewest penalties. While the defence has had its issues, playing the game in opposition territory and limiting attacking opportunities goes a long way to hiding flaws. You’ll remember that gameplan from the second half of the opening Titans game. It’s simple, but it works.

Moses is in rare touch to start the season

Rugby League Writers has done better than I could explaining the Titans’ use of David Fifita, but the short of it is he is being used as a decoy more often and his ball carrying isn’t as effective as last year. He is the centre of attention every time the ball shifts his way, and Gold Coast is getting better at using that to their advantage, but haven’t quite got the balance right. Here’s hoping they don’t find it this week. Maybe the Titans keep him on the left edge to run at Mitchell Moses instead of Dylan Brown, in which case Isaiah Papali’i better be moving up quickly to help with first contact.

The backline changes might lead to some rough combinations for the Titans, Brian Kelly was very effective in the last clash and moving Phillip Sami inside both takes away the danger he posed on the flank and weakens the centre spot. Jamayne Isaako has never been a great attacking fullback and certainly can’t replicate Jayden Campbell’s involvements, which may make shifts even clunkier. Fast shifts will tear the Eels’ right edge to pieces, but slow it down and the cover has time to scramble and recover.

The Lowdown

I think most Eels fans would be happy with a 3-1 start to the year, though they’d probably have expected the loss to come against Melbourne and not Cronulla. That last second loss to the Sharks looks better by the week, as Nicho Hynes and co. prove themselves potential top four chances, but there is little margin for error with so many strong teams in the competition and several of those contenders (Souths, Manly, Easts) faltering in the early going has opened the door wide for an Eels top four run.

This week is the first of four consecutive games where Parramatta will go in as significant favourites, and the Eels absolutely have to take care of business over the next month to cement their own top four credentials. The win against the Dragons was encouraging, but it needs to become the expectation rather than the exception.

Dyl ain’t going half bad either

This contest is Parramatta’s to lose. The Titans have played everybody close, but their defensive resolve has been found wanting and their spine has shown its inexperience in being unable to close out games. If the Eels can win the middle, Dylan Brown, Clint Gutherson and Mitchell Moses provide too much firepower for the Gold Coast defence to contain. I expect that left edge to feast, either Dylan Brown taking the reins himself or Clint Gutherson chipping in for some cut-out passes for Waqa Blake. First round we even saw Mitchell Moses wrap around to that side a few times, so everybody will be looking to get in on the Marzhew wing action.

Reed Mahoney is warming into the year, playing his best game of the season last weekend, and alongside the emergence of Dylan Brown it just gives the Eels too many weapons. We’re still figuring out the best way to combine them all, but just firing them should be enough to account for the Titans. I expect a decent contest, but there will come a time the Gold Coast crack and the Eels put on points in bunches and run away with the match.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 36 d Gold Coast Titans 16

Man of the Match: Clint Gutherson. The king hasn’t forgotten being mocked last time around.

Gol

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