“It’s deja vu all over again!”

While there were positive signs for the Parramatta Eels in season 2021, ultimately the season finished the same way every smirking jerk on the internet expected it to: with a loss in the second week of the finals. Plenty of tipsters are already ignoring the circumstances of that loss and running with the “Parra can’t beat good teams” narrative, while a heap more conflate players moving on for season 2023 with the side’s 2022 performance. How they arrived at their judgments doesn’t matter, as usual the Eels are being considered “good, but nowhere near great” in 2022.

Being the best defensive half in the competition just isn’t enough for some people

The reality is that the 2021 Parramatta Eels provided fuel for just about every narrative you could wish to run in season 2022. The miserable collapse of the side at the start of the Queensland bubble coincided with the toughest stretch of the Eels draw, resulting in three disgusting losses on the trot to some of the best teams in the competition. If you just look at that, you see a team well below the best in the comp. Accounting for 50% of the losses the Melbourne Storm suffered last year, including knocking them off in a much ballyhooed “milestone game”, then losing to the eventual premiers twice by a combined 3 points, that suggests the Eels are more than capable of beating the best teams in the competition.

The Eels are flat track bullies until they’re chokers. The defence is impenetrable until it’s fragile, the attack is slick until it is clunky. The forwards are hard until they’re soft. Mitchell Moses is great until he is terrible, Clint Gutherson is elite until he’s overrated. Dylan Brown is the best young half in the game until he’s the worst attacking player in NRL history. Supporting a schizophrenic football side isn’t easy on the heart and while I’m hoping that elusive consistency finally arrives in 2022, I’m preparing for another round in the emotional washing machine that is a lifetime of bleeding Blue & Gold. Let’s get slippery, Eels fans.

Game Info

Date: Sunday March 13, 2022
Venue: CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Kick-off: 4:05PM AEDT
Referee: Grant Atkins
Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Numbers

Head-to-Head: Played 21, Eels 10, Titans 11
Odds: Eels $1.32, Titans $3.40
Lines: Eels -9.5, Points 46.5
Fact: The Eels are on a five match winning streak against the Titans, dating back to March 2017

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

Punting in the opening round of the season is a perilous task. Trial form is anything but reliable, yet outside of referencing 2021 to select a winner, there’s not much else to go on.

The Eels look to have the edge on paper, and on trial form.

Unfortunately for the Titans, their trial against the Warriors was washed out. On that same weekend, the Eels smashed the Panthers.

The Eels have dominated in recent clashes, winning the last five by an average winning margin of 24 points.

I’m expecting the Eels to start well, so I’m looking at the first half markets and I’m chasing value.

Select the first half line/over under double market and take Parra at -5.5 points with over 22.5 total first half points. The odds are currently $3.10.

However, should your punting strategy involving keeping the powder dry in the first round, more power to you. It’s probably the smartest move.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta Eels

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson. 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Oregon Kaufusi 16. Ray Stone 17. Jake Arthur.

18. Nathan Brown 19. Bryce Cartwright 20. Mitch Rein 21. Tom Opacic 22. Hayze Perham 23. Wiremu Greig 24. Ky Rodwell.

Brad Arthur had said the starting 13 picks itself this year, and even the most ardent Arthur doubter would have to agree with him. Injury to Haze Dunster and Nathan Brown recovering from surgery have forced a couple of changes to that 13, but BA is a straight shooter and the Penrith trial two weeks ago was an accurate reflection of his depth chart to start 2022.

Easy to forget he’s 19 with seven first grade games under his belt.

The big story here was always going to be the bench, but round one is just the prologue to a season long story, as Marata Niukore returns next week, perhaps Nathan Brown as well, and that will shake things up like George R.R Martin killing your favourite character (back when he wrote books). For now Jake Arthur takes the nominal utility role on the bench, a reward for a good pre-season and indicating a new wrinkle to the Eels injury cover this season: moving Dylan Brown to centre. It worked well in the Penrith trial, but it’s hard to see the Eels as a better side with 20 minutes of Jake and Dyl rather than a full 80 for Moses and Brown.

Nathan Brown has been named in NSW Cup and it looks like Brad Arthur wants to shake the rust from Cyborg’s joints following recovery from foot surgeries that saw him miss the trials and most pre-season work. I wouldn’t be reading anything into his reserves demotion here, he’s just underdone. Sean Russell gets first shot at the wing and will likely be a target all season long. Welcome to first grade, kid. I like him, but I’d like him a whole lot more with another off-season of muscle on his frame.

Gold Coast Titans

1. Jayden Campbell 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. AJ Brimson 7. Toby Sexton 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Erin Clark 10. Isaac Liu 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. 14. Will Smith 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jaimin Jolliffe 17. Kevin Proctor.

18. Jarrod Wallace 19. Tanah Boyd 20. Herman Ese’ese 21. Esan Marsters 22. Sam McIntyre 23. Paul Turner 24. Greg Marzhew.

There is already an injury cloud hovering over the Titans, with Corey Thompson and AJ Brimson rumoured to be out, with Marzhew and Boyd the likely replacements. In that case expect former Eel Will Smith to start in the halves, where he’s admittedly been good when called into action for us. The changes further disrupt a new spine that couldn’t trial thanks to floods in NSW, while Marzhew has perhaps the largest gap between his defensive and attacking performance of any player in NRL history.

In the middle, this is a monster pack of forwards that will present a stern challenge to the renowned Parramatta pack first up. In what shapes as wet and humid conditions, expect a bit of a brawl in the middle. The Eels have mostly contained David Fifita in previous outings, but he looked in rare touch in the All Stars game and will always be the “man most likely” in this squad.

Things let up slightly with the interchange, Jaimin Jolliffe is an honest toiler but Sam Lisone has been underwhelming his entire career and if Kevin Proctor is no longer good enough to start I don’t see much value in him shifting to the bench. Jarrod Wallace must be going like a busted to not crack this group.

The Game

The Titans make their first trip to play the Eels at their already rechristened home, CommBank Stadium. Let’s take a moment to enjoy the feeling of a full home ground after a couple of tough years. I hope Mr Chicken is still there.

The shocking floods in south-east Queensland denied the Titans their “dress rehearsal” trial match, and two weeks of biblical weather might leave them a touch underdone for field work in the lead-up. This would usually impact a side’s implementation of an opponent specific gameplan, but last year their gameplans didn’t drift too far from “get it to Fifita” so it might not be a concern. Maybe a bit of “find Campbell in space” will be thrown in when they get the chance.

The Eels weren’t afraid to show off some new shapes in the Penrith trial, with Clint Gutherson the key man in some suspiciously Sea Eagles looking backline shifts. The first saw Will Penisini break through and set up the opening try, later the centre mistimed his run and the play was called for an obstruction. The Parramatta attack outside the red zone has been rather unadventurous in recent years, and these moves were a nice indicator that the Eels will be looking to be more aggressive in 2022.

If Sean Russell plays as confident as he poses, we’ll be just fine

Closer to the line, the traditional long passes to the left wing were still there, though again timing and accuracy was an issue, plus the Penrith defence covered very quickly. Shaun Lane pushed a few passes that I would say he holds in a competition match, but the early indicator is that Brad Arthur has returned the team’s licence to offload. That might be a funny thing to say about a team that has led the NRL in offloads three years running, but the team threw 1.5 fewer offloads a game last year and by the eye test, held the ball in attacking situations a lot more often.

Defensively is where fans will be watching closely, particularly the edge defence and how it shifts. What has proven to be a generally effective defence (fourth best last year, third best in 2020) has some crucial flaws against teams with a good spread (Souths and Manly most notably) and keeping the effectiveness of a compressed defence while building a better system for the edges is the single biggest challenge for Brad Arthur in 2022. Blake Ferguson’s departure might help, but Haze Dunster going down means the Waqa Blake/Sean Russell combination has had precious little time together to build trust. Bailey Simonnson arrived at the club late in pre-season too, so both edges have a raw combination.

The Titans will look to exploit this with their two major weapons: David Fifita and Jayden Campbell. Campbell has elite footwork at the line and can create an overlap by himself, if you are going to rush him make sure you finish the job. Fifita demands attention when involved in any edge shift and will hold two defenders on any run he makes. Expect Clint Gutherson to shadow Fifita and help in the line whether they skip past the rampaging back rower or feed him on the crash ball.

Gold Coast will like both edge matchups they face, particularly if Marzhew plays. He sure knows his way to the line, even if he can’t defend it, and both Eels wingers will be at a disadvantage in physicality. Luckily Marzhew makes an equally effective target for kicks, numbers or just running at, capable of mis-reads, missed tackles and mis-cues fielding kicks. His turning circle makes Maika Sivo look nimble, so expect some grubbers behind the line or even mid-field kicks if the fullback is out of position.

The key to beating the Titans last year was simply playing 80 minutes of football. They were a notoriously inconsistent side, scoring and conceding points in bunches. If it becomes a battle of mental toughness I like the Eels chances based on how they muscled up in the big games at the end of last year, and knowing the rugged pre-season they have had I wouldn’t expect the Titans to out-enthuse them. 2022 might be different for Justin Holbrook’s men, but this is largely the same roster with the same coach, so I won’t believe Gold Coast can find consistency until I see it.

The Lowdown

Parramatta should have far too much class here. The Titans were a team that relied on individual brilliance in 2021 and while they have added to those individual weapons by unearthing Jayden Campbell and Toby Sexton, I don’t see much scope for improvement in their structured attack, particularly if AJ Brimson is missing. If the Eels turn this into an arm wrestle, I can only see the result going one way.

It will be a heavy track on Sunday, after two weeks of heavy rainfall Parramatta River was flooded as recently as Tuesday and it is unlikely even the most advanced drainage systems could produce a dry surface in that turnaround. A-League matches at CommBank were cancelled last week due to drainage, but I think the NRL would sooner play in foot-deep water than cancel a first round home opener.

Just look at the size of this man!

The Eels were happy to throw the ball around in wet conditions in the Penrith trial but I predict Brad Arthur will be leaning on a simple, ball control focused gameplan here relying on his big men being better than the Titans big men. It is a safe bet. Combined with the game control of Moses, Mahoney and Gutherson, it is going to be a tough afternoon for the Titans working it out from their own end.

I’m expecting mid-season form from Gutherson and Moses, while eagerly anticipating new plays to unlock the left edge with Dylan Brown, Shaun Lane and Waqa Blake. We saw a couple in the Dragons trial (albeit with Jake Arthur running the show) that were brutally effective. If this is going to be our year, that edge is where the improvement will come from.

It won’t be an easy clash, but it is one I see the Eels winning relatively comfortably. After an eternity of off-season, I just can’t wait for footy to be back. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta 22 d Gold Coast 10

Man of the Match: Junior Paulo

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