The Cumberland Throw

Bumpers Up – October 31, 2021: The Clickbait Edition

Here we are, on the eve of November, and the media frenzy is in full cry.

Is this anything unexpected?

In an ideal world, the Eels would have wrapped up a signing or two to quell fearful supporters, but that isn’t the case.

Over the last few weeks I’ve been sent many messages asking what I know regarding the current negotiations.

Rightly, I don’t know anything about any of the individual discussions.

But I do know enough to realise that when every discussion involves players wanting more, and in some cases much, much more, that it is impossible for the club to keep everyone. That’s just the straight out mathematics.

All of this is out of our control, but we are entitled to our opinions.

So brace yourself as we head into this week’s Bumpers Up. You may well require a stint on the rub down table afterwards.

 

Roll Call

It’s quite the list of Eels players tempted to leave – at least as far as the media is concerned.

RCG

From the likely departure of Marata to back across the ditch, to RCG’s surprise announcement, and then the increased list of suitors for Reed, the “in-demand” run down now includes Matto, Junior, Gutho and Ice.

Is it earth shattering news that other clubs would be interested?

The only question to be answered is who can the Eels least afford to lose, and what price is the club prepared to pay for any that fit into that category.

When the moment arrives that a player announces their departure, there will be criticism. That’s a given as that player will be a favourite for certain supporters.

Whatever happens, the roster will remain strong.

 

For A Few Dollars More?

Money, opportunity and family generally top the list for the reasons players leave their club.

The opportunity to advance a career, either through personal or team achievements has always been a factor. Players regularly seek to link with stronger clubs, a particular coach or somewhere that they have the opportunity to feature in a preferred position.

Family tends to be a factor at either the very early or the later stages of careers. Being close to support networks can be important for different reasons, and an expanding family necessitates moves that might benefit the lifestyle or extract the best possible coin for players towards the end of their football life. Even finding a club that can be the gateway to a post footy career can be critical.

But money remains such a strong motivator, and it’s hoped that the players are well advised in this regard.

Without strong guidance, the players might not be aware of the real increase heading their way. They are up in that 45c in the dollar tax bracket, so they’re essentially netting just over 50% of any offer above what their incumbent club is offering.

Then there are the costs of relocating, especially if the move necessitates shifting the residence. That can often involve time apart for a partner or family, something that is not ideal.

Player agents would/should be assisting them with such facts, as well as setting them up with accountants who can minimise their tax. It’s why it’s so difficult to entice highly paid players from their current clubs.

For a few dollars more, and at that level of pay it is just a few dollars, they are being asked to uproot from the club that’s become their home, and the people that make up their “family”.

I still can’t help but wonder whether every player is aware of that.

 

What Money Can Buy

Money will be able to secure some Eels players.

As stated above, with so many players pushing for much more under a system where the salary cap remains consistent, it is impossible to meet every demand.

The market price of players has suddenly become inflated by the entry of a new club and by one or two clubs prepared to pay “overs” in order to fix holes in their rosters. Agents are aware of this and they have collectively decided to strike while the iron is hot.

From a timing perspective, the entry of the Dolphins could not have been worse for the Eels. Little doubt, agents are using their name as a bargaining tool, much the same way as potential Parra dollars were frequently quoted in media discussions surrounding off-contract players.

We are yet to see the Dolphin’s first signing, let alone first marquee recruit, but their coin will be shaking up the market.

 

Tigers or Warriors?

Outside of the Dolphins, these are the two clubs that are mentioned most frequently for chasing off contract Eels.

Would you consider the Tigers or the Warriors to be destination clubs capable of luring one of your best players away?

With respect, outside of the coin, there’s not too much to be achieved at such organisations.

Papali’i

Ice left the Warriors for a reason, and even outside of the COVID dramas it’s a club that seems to be in a constant state of flux.

As for the Tigers, the players that want out seem to outweigh those that want in. If you watched this year’s doco-series Tales From Tigertown, you would have found many reasons to steer clear of the place.

My message to the players fielding their offers would be simple. If you want to earn the big payday, by all means accept what’s on offer from each club. They’re both probably due to have better times sooner or later.

But don’t kid yourself – there’s a reason that each club has struggled to qualify for finals footy during the last decade.

How much is that worth?

 

A Bidding War? No Thanks!

As discussed, Parra has accepted that keeping certain players will mean shelling out more money. Changing market values will force that, but how much is too much?

The media are reporting that Papali’i’s agent has rejected a massively increased contract offer from the Eels.

Despite the club budgeting to pay more and indeed offering more for certain players, a couple of outlier bids might push values beyond what is realistically possible.

For every above projected budget offer made, the cost becomes the loss of another player and potential unrest amongst the already contracted. There is a ceiling for every player that exists for the overall health of the squad.

The Eels have a very balanced roster. There are no million dollar a year superstars eating up huge percentages of the cap. Instead, they’ve been able to assemble a squad comprised of players on mid to upper range salaries, a number on short term “value” deals and a collection of talented emerging youngsters.

Once you start to create imbalance within the roster, pressure builds to increase the salaries of others. And whilst a pay rise for a player might translate to just over 50% for their wallet, the club pays the full freight for the cap.

In playing the long game, I’m all for keeping the balance.

We’ve seen the results of paying overs in the not too distant past.

 

Don’t Ignore The Positive

Here’s an angle that the media haven’t been interested in highlighting.

Going into next season, there were few opportunities for external recruitment. The Eels have barely dipped their toe into the player market, with Mitch Rein the only confirmed addition. It’s likely that they might recruit one or two more to complete the squad.

That situation is likely to be very different when it comes to the 2023 roster, especially with so many contracts ending in 2022.

If highly paid players depart that means both roster places and a “war chest” to hit the market with. That is a massive positive.

Remember, every one of the Eels players mentioned in the media are negotiating a 2023 contract.

Who’s to say that the Eels aren’t sounding out players at other clubs in a similar position?

They’d be foolish not to and I’d reckon it’s a given that such talks would be taking place.

 

Eels forever!

Sixties

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65 thoughts on “Bumpers Up – October 31, 2021: The Clickbait Edition

  1. Anonymous

    You can add at least 6% to that 45%,, managers , i wonder just how many ruined careers and wasted opportunity’s theyre responsible for , how many players have endured years of misery at a club they really didnt want to be at because of these people , remember boys your manager is not interested in your welfare or happiness just your fee , try ringing them once your careers nearly over !!

    1. sixties Post author

      I have stories that I could tell and yet I don’t even know a drop in the ocean about the topic. I can only imagine the worst of it.
      Like anything there are the brilliant and the atrocious that make up agents. The players can never make assumptions about decisions being made. Some have learnt the hard way.

    2. Rocket

      I heard a story about a player manager contacting his client because his contract was coming to an end. Said player commented he hadn’t heard from the manager since his last contract was negotiated.

  2. Graz

    Thanks Sixties. If you read stories from certain journos, you could assume that the Eels won’t be in the 2023 comp as they’ll have insufficient players. We Eels fans want to know what’s happening because of our love for the club and naturally we want to know ASAP. But realistically we have to be patient. Lots of moving pieces with new team and players coming off contract. But I agree with you Sixties, we can’t get the salary cap out of whack. That guarantees disaster, only giving a roster out of whack.

    1. sixties Post author

      Cheers Graz. I believe that our management are looking at the bigger picture. You’d hope that players would consider the wider ramifications of pushing for bigger coin. But the reality is also that they have a limited career and have their own goals to achieve.

  3. Prometheus

    It seems to me that keeping players that give the team more chance to win opposed to players that don’t is more healthy for the squad going forward.

  4. Clive

    I just find it really poor form from the players. Yeah it’s a business blah blah blah but keep it behind closed doors and don’t let your manager turn it into a media circus.

    I also find it really ordinary from Gutho. It’s not a great example when the club captains contract seems to get played out in public every time he’s after a new deal. In my view Gutherson has been paid really well for a guy who is a fringe rep player who supposedly loves BA.

    1. Gianni Giusti

      Exactly hes a great team player but not a matchwinner on his own.In my opinion 650k tops.Anymore than that is just greed and will prevent us from winning a title.Moses is and should be our highest paid player but even he should not be on over the top coin.Sometimes i wonder if these guys are just happy to earn big money and go through the motions each year and not care if they dont win a title.I can tell you as a 50 year supporter all i care about is winning that next title.

      1. Gianni Giusti

        Look at that poor run before the finals we looked like we had a team full of minimum wage players seriously we looked that bad.where were all our big money boys then.

    2. sixties Post author

      Clive, I understand how you and Gianni feel. But, all of that is out of our control but we can’t allow the agents and media reporting to get under our skin, What matters most to me is how the players respond when they pull on the jersey.

    3. Mr controversy aka rev

      Well said Clive. I agree with you.
      Gutho knows what his manager is doing. As far as I’m concerned gutho can head back to manly.

  5. Prometheus

    It seems to me that keeping players that give the team more chance to win opposed to players that don’t is more healthy for the squad going forward.

  6. Brett Allen

    Everyone stay calm, we will probably lose Marata, and also RCG, but the silver lining is that it will likely make it easier for us to keep Reed, Gutho, Papa & Junior.

    1. Mr controversy aka rev

      I’d be sad if we lost Marata but i understand his situation regarding family.
      I hope we don’t lose papali’i he has been outstanding for us.

      Sixties n Brett if you were the coach would you tell them their free to leave early or would you use them to the max to get the ultimate reward. Grand final trophy.

  7. Shaun

    It’s hard not to read some of the stories and become disappointed at how some players are approaching the negotiations through their agents.But as Sixties notes, the Dolphins plus weaker clubs with money to burn have disrupted the player market.

    But I endorse the approach the club now takes in negotiations and the desire to not pay overs. 2023 may see some players move on but I’m not worried. I think the club will still have a strong, balanced side. Plus you never know who may end up on the player market that would be a good buy.

    1. sixties Post author

      Shaun, to be honest, if some players are slow to sign, it shouldn’t slow us from chasing other players on the market. Just as players need to do what’s best for them, so too does the club.

      1. Shaun

        Exactly. It is possible that some negotiations are close to being finalised. But if layer agents are using November 1 as some sort of leverage it may backfire.

  8. Shelley

    You have to love the media and the way it has it both ways. Every year they rightly praise the Storm for maintaining a top team but they forget to remind people how they do it. They do not pay overs for players and let good players go if they feel they can cover for them. You notice they, the Storm, keep their spine together , but in the past 2 years they have let two state of origin players in Tino and Dale Finucane go as they will not pay overs for players outside the spine. I am sure they wanted to keep both and have or will miss them but they did not enter a bidding war.
    My only comment on this is I hope Parra fans stay sensible and avoid the media trap.

    If a young players is silly enough to risk his career going to the Tigers/ Warriors/ Titans/ Dolphins well he better get a long term deal because his next one might not be much- think Ash Taylor. If a player who has given us good service but is in his last big contract years takes overs I wish him nothing but the best.
    The club however does need to put some sensible deadlines on player decisions so that we don’t end up with money to spend but no one to spend it on as our players took too long to decide. Dragging this out and a player letting their manager drag this through the media will be the only thing that will annoy me in this situation. By all means leave if a deal you can not refuse comes up but show the club and fans the respect we deserve by making a timely decision.

    1. sixties Post author

      Well said Shelley. As I noted in a reply to Shaun, if some negotiations are moving too slowly, it shouldn’t delay our interest in external recruits. If anything, it should provide some impetus.

      1. Colin Hussey

        I have pretty much shut up shop on this whole era of crap that is played out in such dumb ways. While one can understand that players need money to live on, especially those with wives and families, likely mortgages to be paid for, along with so many other areas of their personal lifes. Likewise for so many the amount paid is often seemingly like riding on a big dipper or perhaps a ghost train that is not a pleasant ride.

        For players, there is also the cost for their agents to sign them up and of course they only get a sniff of money don’t they??? NOT! For the supporters of a team, all this wrangling does also have an affect on them and why I have dropped off elsewhere owing to the general ranting that goes on there.

        For me the best part of this silly (stupid) end of season carry ons is that while the media are promoting what our off contract players should be doing, and most of the journo’s having wonderful messages for players and all alike, I get a feeling that they are frustrated owing to nothing coming out from the eels retention committee, pre November 1 2021, that is the best part of what is happening.

        The aspect that there is nothing from the club is a giant slap in the face for the agents, and no doubt there is affects on the players. Tomorrow I would think there will be announcements on players that have signed, and some who are still negotiating. Tells me the the earth is not going to explode yet, and the players who are not sure of their futures, could do worse than have decent discussions without their agents being involed, rather the club puts to the players the reality of their own financial issues to keep players and sign them also new faces needing to be elevated, or have their careers commenced.

        Who we lose, we lose, and who we sign, we sign, and we will still be competetive, going forward

  9. BDon

    Sixties, thanks for the sound logic and reason. This stuff reeks of that old saying about knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing. The top teams are likely to have tight spending restrictions, they’ve maximised their cap, the lower teams are likely to be foot loose and fancy free, trying to buy their way into the top echelon. A high price from a lower team will have costs to the player, I think every time David Fifita crashes through 5 blokes from 20 metres out..’so where’s all that heading?’

    1. sixties

      Very true BDon. If a player is getting huge coin at a club, and they’d know it, and maybe there’s a couple of others alongside them getting overs, they have to know that there’s a price to pay elsewhere in the roster.
      The players have to be aware that by everyone chasing much bigger contracts that the club won’t be able to keep everyone. I’m now forming a mental picture of those that I expect to leave and those who might have some wiggle room in our potential offer. But I don’t see us exceeding projected ceilings for players.

      1. Mr controversy aka rev

        Sixties some player’s cant handle the pressure when delt with big pay packets. Look at Taylor n milf n ben hunt. Didn’t deliver. So to the Eels joys looking for that big pay day good luck. Enjoy even more expectation.

  10. Anonymous

    I’m not fussed either way some players will leave its inevitable that’s the buissines.
    I don’t expect loyalty from players I’d say to them the club won’t show that to them so go get your market value your only 1 injury away from it being over.

    End of the day it’s not like clubs are taking players from a premiership winning roster the silver lining is we lose some players and we get some new players maybe players that have that bit extra to get us that bit further at the end of the season.

    1. sixties

      That may well be the case Anon. Even if that means that the path there is the loss of a much loved and rated player or two.

  11. John Eel

    There is a lot of sense being spoken on here about the reality of what is occurring at the moment.

    This is pretty much normal for this time of the year with clubs paying overs for perceived star players who end up in many cases not delivering in weaker new teams. As BDon said, think of Fifita at the Titans or many Storm stars who have left over the years.

    As Sixties has already pointed out this has been exacerbated this year by the entry of the Dolphins.

    Thing is if quality players do leave, players that we would prefer to keep then it gives us room in the cap to chase another quality player as a replacement.

    For instance if a player we want to keep takes an offer somewhere else, maybe Gutherson for example, then you would likely chase a player like Manu as a replacement.

    Or RCG wants out you look from within or maybe a Christian Welch there is always another player waiting to be recruited. This player will often be younger and give longer service.

    Under the current administration the process is far more professional than it has been for a long time. The club is no longer paying overs and relying on the drawing power of the now successful club that the Eels have become to put a quality squad on the paddock.

    Should the player managers try to play games with the club, the retentions committee is not frightened to back away from the offer. We saw it recently with Nathan Brown.

    The outcome will be known come round one 2022. This is a premiership window that is now wide open.

    1. sixties

      John, there were some horror stories in the past of how easily our club would cave to contract demands. Little wonder there were cap issues.

  12. Mick

    I agree with most of what has been said here. Priority should be a stable fair roster and destination club. The closest any one player has come to dragging a team through to a premiership is probably Hayne, and we still didn’t get there. I’d love to keep all these great players coming off contract, but without knowing all the ins and outs, you have to rely on club management knowing the price ceiling of every player. There would be a whole heap of off field stuff that influences their value beyond what you see in 80 mins of footy. So playing massive overs on the hope that one person will drag your team through to success is unlikely to pay off.

    That said my best guess is Gutho is likely worth more than his on field performances. So I have to think he’s likely priority #1.

    Fingers crossed some of this noise will be solved over the next few weeks.

    1. sixties

      That market value is interesting Mick. I’d say that someone like Gutho has a higher value to us than his actual market value. What I mean by that is that is his preferred position is fullback. There are talented players across the NRL in that position, to the extent that there’d be less market interest in him in that position. Yet what he means to our form is high value. Therefore we might have been signing him for less money than we might expect to pay based on form, yet he might still be doing very well in terms of his value were he to go to market.

      1. Anonymous

        Most coaches rely on chasing better players , our coach relies on making better players , who else does that , hmm , bellyache ?

        1. Shaun

          BA is quietly building a good record in taking unwanted players and finding their best. Doesn’t mean the club shouldn’t grab a star player if on the market and right fit for the team but I like this approach.

      2. Anonymous

        So top 8 2021 , edwards , panthers have cap issues for him plus crichton heir apoarent , latterel mitchell , papanhayzen, turbo tom , tedesco , guth , ponga , campbell , Rest , reece walsh , clockstand , dane lawrie , valentine holmes and the others with new young guns , where does guth see himself getting no 1 spot elsewhere , hes allready lost pace , we are the right fit for him and him for us , entitled to fair money yes but has he got 3 let alone 4 seasons at top left ?????

        1. sixties Post author

          Yes, Gutho and the Eels are a good fit. We both get value for money in my opinion. He’s in a position where the market is well served, so his market price in the NRL wouldn’t be through the roof, in fact it’s possibly lower than it should be. Likewise I reckon we get service and performances from him that at least match what we pay. It works well for both

          1. Colin Hussey

            I have read over the weekend that the NRL has surplus money and talking about giving it to the clubs/teams. In different versions of the article it mentions both $500K as well as $1M as the amounts, there was also a bit where the money could/can be used to assist with player retention or, it could be for the players.

            If true, then it could be a beneficial amount for key retentions, of players who are hovering on whether they leave or stay, I would say that those who are staying or hovering on the decision would be of a huge help to them, and cut out some of the crap that’s being promoted around.

            While the club is quiet ATM, I hope its for good reason and we end up not losing too many, but I also believe that we do have enough young players who can fill many of the positions from within.

            Any thoughts on this news sixties, if true?

  13. Milo

    Firstly, it will be a long off season…..
    Next, it is frustrating that we have so many coming off contract at the same time. Maybe this needs to be amended going forward.
    We need to keep the core together but not be dictated to by managers for exorbitant salaries…..to me if RCG moves on and Niukore, then we have the chance of sorting the rest, and Sivo too possible rugby move. Shame about Niukore as i would have moved on some others, but that is all opinion.
    Follow Melbourne’s policy and you go well.

    1. Colin Hussey

      Milo, while I agree with your sentiments, I’m not sure how its possible to spread the contracts out over a longer time frame. While we have got caught out big time for the next two years, its something that is very hard to all but impossible to get contracts out that reflect a better spread of players.

      The lose of some players will always be inevitable, especially key ones, but it also allows some players who have taken something of a back seat to get a chance to advance there chances in the top side, I think Kafusi is a good example of that, young and still has room for a good amount of improvement.

      1. BDon

        Yes Col, I’m thinking Wiremu Greig’s progress will be interesting to watch if RCG and Marata exit. You need a few blokes who leave the sheds and deliver some hurt.

        1. Colin Hussey

          He could be anything, same as Dave Hollis & Rodwell, thing is that Greig was quite unfit this year and needs a strong training program so he is fit, which was his problem this year.

          The other area that I will be watching and hope to see good results is in the lower grade team, I tend to think depending on who goes end of next year, we need strong back up players, who ready for the top side, possibly rotations amongst them.

      2. Milo

        I guess Col my point is the key players being off contract at the same time, its all added to this, and yes we cannot keep them all, unless from Bondi.

        1. Colin Hussey

          I had a look at the team contract list and shows there is 6 contracted through 2023 with 2 others having PO’s for 2023. MM is contracted through 2024, 14 with contracts ending 2022, a couple with PO’s on top of the other contracts for 2022.

          Of those off contract, I would only be looking at extending 10 of them beyond next year, meaning 4 of the off contract end of 2022 I would not sign them longer.

          I’m no real fan of the PO & CO options though, but a MO or Mutual option meaning both club and player do want the player to stay.

          I do believe that having half of the 10 being on different contract lengths which would or should resolve this media saga that seems to be cruelling the club & players.

          I have not included RCG in the list, as he is more than likely moving on, with his cancelling the two options he has. 1 Player and 1 Club. Mitch has a PO for 2024

        2. John Eel

          I believe that the issue of having so many not signed prior to November 1 is highly motivated this year by the inclusion of the Dolphins.

          The opportunity for players to leverage larger contracts as a result. Either a larger contract to extend or a big contract at the Dolphins or another of the weaker clubs.

          1. Colin Hussey

            Fair comment John, and not hard to agree with it.

            The primary aspect that I see in the Dolphins set up is the comments from Beannie once he got his contract wrapped up. He was initially promoting the aspect of using local players as the primary team members, behind that he talked up the need for experienced imports to form the primary team.

            While promoting the locals he was also putting out feelers for the experienced players, I think RCG was one of the first to sound his siren with Beanie once his deal was set in concrete he then started to promote the need for experience in the team. The dollies and Beanie then said they have a war chest to bring in players and that would include imports and those of the local comp to be back ups to the main team, however he did indicate the imports would be key signings.

            They have indicated they have $9.6M for the team of 30 players, if evened out would mean $320.000 for each player, but once the dividing of the coin according to player wants/demands who would get the primary coin and what would the underlings get? Something that players who want to go there to play under the master, would need to consider what they might get as sign on amounts, the cost of moving to QLD and getting set in homes, the maths may actually change in a different amount than the players think.

  14. John Eel

    I note from “Eels in the news “ that we play the Roosters in Magic Round at Suncorp. While I don’t have a problem with that I just hope it is their home game.

    After all when they play a home game they don’t get a crowd whereas we will get a good crowd at Commbank stadium regardless of who we play.

    We don’t seem to get a lot of home games against the Roosters.

  15. BDon

    Sixties, I’m not on Twitter, but the Chammas article is thought provoking. I must say I genuinely got the impression our biggest problem, poor defending out wide, had taken a turn for the better with Marata and Penisini in the run on side. Every team is on the same fate with injuries and officiating so leaving these aside, I thought we could seriously challenge in 2022 with our current roster with even luck. There has been a developing maturity in the team through the spine and elsewhere. All this money ruction may have an impact in 2022, more likely in 2023, who knows. Trjobevic and Tedesco are the only 2 proven x-factor players I’d invest in, the cupboard is pretty bare really. All this indicates how difficult it is to prise open the premiership window without strong administration, guiding principles, long term thinking and ongoing refreshment.

    1. sixties Post author

      BDon, I agree about how few X factors there are in the game. It could be that Moses might become such a player for us.

  16. John Eel

    That is absolutely brilliant news about RCG extending to the end of 2024.

    I really thought that we had lost him.

    Great work Mark O’Neill

    1. Colin Hussey

      First Domino has fallen. Who’s next?

      Interesting with the bringing in of Ennis & Mary to their roles.

      1. John Eel

        That was a big shock to me. He hardly had a kind word for us in the last two years.

        So I agree with you Colin

        1. Colin Hussey

          VT John, I honestly could not stand Niggles when on the various panels, had an arrogance about him that surpassed others, he was certainly a perfectionist in that area, the halves players will have some new areas of learning tricks as the season progresses.

          I have a feeling that these two signings, may well be what unlocks the delay decisions as to the players who are wavering. I also tend to think that the contracts will be filled with players that have realistic signings and the amount they will accept.

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