The Cumberland Throw

The Preview – Round 14, 2021: Eels vs Wests

Game Info

Date: Sunday 13 June, 2021

Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Grant Atkins

Head-to-head: Played 42, Parramatta 26, Wests 15, Drawn 1

Odds: Eels $1.25 Tigers $3.80

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta Eels 36 d Wests Tigers 22, Stadium Australia, R4 2021

Parramatta Eels 28 d Wests Tigers 24, Bankwest Stadium, R20 2020

Parramatta Eels 26 d Wests Tigers 16, Bankwest Stadium, R11 2020

Parramatta Eels 30 d Wests Tigers 18, Bankwest Stadium, R17 2019

Background

It’s a funny old world when the Eels just doing what they are expected to do is a pleasant surprise, but that one word defines last Sunday perfectly. Pleasant. Parramatta put the Knights away before halftime then put the boot to the throat for most of the second half. It was clinical, a comfortable handling of an overmatched opponent. Let’s see more of it over the next few weeks before the draw delivers us to murderers’ row in the leadup to the finals.

Now the Tigers prowl back into town, their backs up after dealing an Origin-impacted Panthers their first loss of the season. While it was a great chance for long suffering fans to stick it to runaway former coach Ivan Cleary it doesn’t do much as a predictor for how things will go this weekend, seeing as the Panthers were missing half of their regular first grade side. 

The Tigers are coming in with three wins from four starts, which is as close to good form as they’ve come in some time. Yet Wests are winless in their last six against the Eels, dating back to 2018 and including four losses in a row at Bankwest Stadium. Their Jungle indeed. The last time they played a contender was back in April, when Manly put 40 past them. It’s another game the experts and the odds say Parramatta should win comfortably, so how about we go for two pleasant Sundays in a row hey boys?

 

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

How good was that first ever match at Bankwest Stadium!

There’s something about this week’s clash with the same opponent that has me thinking back to that game.

It’s not like the Tigers will be lacking in confidence. They would be on a massive high after back to back wins, including the big scalp of the Panthers.

But, I reckon Parra are primed for a big match.

There’s no value in straight out win markets. So this week I’m digging into the first half head to head/over under double.

I’m thinking back to that 30 to 6 half time score from 2019 and taking Parra covering the 7.5 points start with over 24.5 points total points scored. You’ll get odds of $3.40 for that.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

 

How we look

The Knights game was a great demonstration of ideal Eels football and the endgame of the Parramatta gameplan. Forward dominance translated into massive amounts of room for Dylan Brown to test with his running game, racking up fullback level running metres from the halves. Waqa Blake also benefited from running in space for the first time in a long time and gave a timely demonstration of his attacking upside. The forward dominance came from a willingness to offload, Parramatta putting up their highest number of offloads for the season with 19, a number it felt like they averaged last season. With that dominance earning field position the Eels exploited an overmatched Knights defence, particularly on the left attacking edge with Sivo, Gutherson and Waqa.

Matto is due a big performance against his former club

Offloads were what kept the Tigers in the game against the Eels last time around, and were what Manly used to destroy the Parramatta middle three weeks ago, so it is timely that the Blue & Gold forwards have found their groove in slipping passes. Defending them is another matter, but being able to create second phase play unlocks the underappreciated individual talents in the Parramatta backline to create on their own. Aside from a Sivo or Ferguson bargeover, we rarely see Eels tries come from sheer individual brilliance. Maybe getting Waqa Blake and Dylan Brown into some space will change that.

Edge defence update: it was good against Newcastle, but as expected they didn’t throw much at us. It was nice to see Dylan Brown chopping down Bradman Best one-on-one, a great demonstration of his value to that edge. This week they face Tommy Talau and David Nofoaluma and a Tigers team that hasn’t been known for its great shape this season, sitting second in the NRL in tackles inside the opposition 20 but only mid pack in tries scored (thanks Jason Oliver of the excellent Rugby League Writers). The Eels are the only team with more tackles inside the opposition 20, but have a top three NRL attack to show for it.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Joey Lussick 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Marata Niukore 15. Shaun Lane 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Will Smith 19. Blake Ferguson 20. Jake Arthur 21. Nathaniel Roache.

Joey Lussick has some big headgear to fill for the next few weeks

Indefinite. The Eels are becoming known for treating the injury status of players like national secrets as scans revealed further damage to Reed Mahoney’s shoulder that will see him out for the dreaded indefinite period of time. Sources we have to go by, namely NRL Physio, suggest a three to six week layoff for Reed, which on average would see him return after Origin 3. In the meantime, Joey Lussick has done well in NSW Cup at hooker and earns his chance, with no noted backup on the bench to relieve him. Lussick is a solid defender with an opportunistic running game, but he won’t match Reed for his subtlety and passing selection close to the line. It may result in less room for the outside attack if the Tigers can’t be compressed to the middle.

The other change sees Junior Paulo return to the side after Origin, forcing Marata Niukore back to the bench and Will Smith to the extended reserves. I think the Eels best bench finds a place for the Will-of-all-trades, but for now it looks like Bryce Cartwright either comes into rake or facilitates some kind of shuffle that sees Gutho or Dylan playing dummy half. Junior might see limited minutes in this one as he is backing up, which might explain why Brad Arthur went with three middles and a forward utility in place of Smith.

Wests

1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Adam Doueihi 4. Tommy Talau 5. James Roberts 6. Moses Mbye 7. Luke Brooks 8. James Tamou 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Alex Twal 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Joe Ofahengaue. 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Shawn Blore 16. Tom Amone 17. Alex Seyfarth. 18. Michael Chee Kam 19. Billy Walters 20. Kelma Tuilagi 21. Jake Simpkin.  

Just about full strength for the Tigers, who seem to have settled on their combinations after struggling to find consistent attacking shape in the early rounds. The latest change is shifting James Roberts to the wing, hiding his defence and giving him a chance to use his blinding speed. He’s an ideal man to have outside of Adam Doueihi, whose size demands attention from defenders that could create space for Roberts.

The Tigers bench is an interesting one, with little known prop Tom Amone making his third appearance for the year while Shawn Blore continues his injury comeback but has not done anything worthy of a post-match report since lining up Nathan Brown in his debut last year. Alex Seyfarth is well regarded out Tigers way, which admittedly doesn’t mean a lot, while former Eel Utoikamanu is back after being dropped for a month. That is a lot of forwards, but considering the minutes most of the Tigers starting pack are capable of, it doesn’t feel like the best use of resources.

Intangibles

The cold snap in Sydney should be broken by Sunday, with clear skies and comfortable temperatures expected. I for one will enjoy the late start and not having the blinding sun in my eyes for the entire first half sitting in the Cronin Stand. It was a dry track last time out for these two teams, playing into the Tigers offloading game. Parramatta will need to clamp down on that this time around.

Grant Atkins is the referee, but once again the man in the middle doesn’t matter so much as what he is told to do (or not do). Tentative signs suggest the sin bin crackdown has been quietly eased, or in the spin of Peter V’landys “players have got the message.” The NRL has certainly got the message that fans and players didn’t want to see play dragged back two minutes for minor crusher tackles and players binned for love taps to the cheek.

The Tigers proved themselves very adept at penalty milking last weekend, igniting a debate about gamesmanship in rugby league. Personally I don’t see it ever going away, and if you can’t fix it, take advantage of it. Try not to be as obvious about it as Daine Laurie, sure, but I’m good with players staying down to earn their rightful penalties for high contact. Maika Sivo has always loved his milk, and has never met contact to his neck that didn’t feel like a crusher.

There should be another full, roaring Bankwest Stadium this weekend, though a rabid home crowd didn’t stop the Eels players laying eggs against Manly and St George-Illawarra. Is there anything worse than hearing opposing supporters chant in your home ground? It would be nice to not have to suffer that indignity this weekend.

The Opposition

It took a while, but the Tigers seem to have found a combination that works for them. At least, it worked against the Panthers with seven players out and weak Dragons and Knights sides. Luke Brooks has stepped up somewhat and his combination with Moses Mbye seems to get more out of him. Adam Doueihi, or more accurately, his kicking game, killed the Eels last time out so it will be interesting to see if they try to get him more involved this week. His move to the centres started strong but in recent weeks his involvement has been lacking.

The next Payne Haas has been much closer to the next Justin Poore

Another wrinkle since last time around is the move of Luciano Leilua to the right in attack, creating a lethal running edge with Doueihi and James Roberts. Roberts doesn’t have the positioning nous of a winger and left a try on the table last week because of that, but he will get his chances with those two giants playing inside him. Leilua will be licking his lips at the chance to line up Mitch Moses near the line and he’s caused the Eels plenty of headaches previously.

The Tigers have hit a fun statistical anomaly in their try scoring and conceding numbers, scoring an equal number on the left and right edge while also conceding an equal number on each side. Nofoaluma, Laurie and Talau are all leaders in try concedes for the Tigers, so that right edge defence is probably our first point of attack despite the numbers. Wests are middle of the pack in most statistical categories, not doing much well, not really doing anything too badly, just not able to take advantage of field position and possession advantages.

Parramatta did cede middle dominance to the Tigers last time around, and while it didn’t cost them the game it did make it a tough watch as the Eels spent a long time in a position to put the game away but instead let their opponents back in. In saying that, it also felt like every good attacking opportunity the Eels got they took, so it might be as simple as holding the ball and stopping the offloads. On paper this is not a battle the Parramatta forwards should lose.

The story

Last week Parramatta did an excellent job of taking the emotion out of the match, and they need to repeat that effort here. The Tigers are riding high on three wins from four games, and even with the excuses, beating an undefeated team is a huge confidence boost. Undue confidence is confidence all the same, and Wests will feel good about how they took the middle last time and will definitely see a path to victory. 

Last time around the Tigers did well to recover from giving up early points, so a fast start can’t be followed up with a lapse at first interchanges. Oregon Kaufusi, Shaun Lane and Marata Niukore are a pretty good first change rotation, but this might be the week to give Nathan Brown and his high energy play an extended early run. Parramatta need to choke the Tigers out of this one on both sides of the ball, because this is a team that believes they can chase down just about any lead.

Their attack may have improved in the last month, but defensively the Tigers are still fragile and Parramatta just need to give themselves opportunities to put points on. That starts with not dropping bombs, maybe not as big of an issue now that Blake Ferguson is out of the side and Adam Doueihi is out of the halves. Then it is a matter of avoiding panic and working through the middle before spreading out wide. Wests will undoubtedly get theirs a couple of times, but Parramatta must shut down momentum and stop them going back-to-back. 

It’s a game we should win, but I expect a contest. Wests don’t go away and they’ve worked their way back into the finals conversation in the last month. It won’t be easy, but I believe the Eels turned a corner last week and are ready to step up a level in preparation for a finals run. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 34 d Wests Tigers 20

Man of the Match: Dylan Brown

If you liked this article, you might consider supporting The Cumberland Throw.

13 thoughts on “The Preview – Round 14, 2021: Eels vs Wests

  1. Colin Hussey

    While I see a win against the Tigers, I also see some danger spots as well. Watching the Tigers last match, Twal & Tamou played very well, Mr Mafia is always a hard nose also, and Stefano also played a very strong game, two of those players are ex eels, and likely to have a bit of a thank you welcome to the eels.

    The other big one that the eels will be watching closely is Haze, he has copped a big and unfair blasting from many on the other site, and facing up to his opposition winger in David Nofoaluma is going to test Haze out in a big way. Having Opi on the inside should keep Douhei in check.

    For me a 6 points win will be good but if the eels really turn up with our forwards dominating, with a good bench, anything is possible for the eels.

    1. sixties

      Why is he copping a blast Colin? I know you said it’s unfair, I too would think it’s unfair.

      1. Colin Hussey

        Mate, there are certain people I believe just wageing some sort of vandetta against him, and for me I have no idea as to why.

        Haze for me has played more than ok, in the games I have seen him play in, why the vandetta against him is beyond me, the last post over on the other site at least got some changing their views, up to a point where they will be watching him play and taking notice of him more.

        Seems there is a change that its no longer the in thing to bring up local players for the eels, rather import the relatively unknowns that will make do.

        I am more than happy to be in Hazes corner. In his post game interview he spoke well and was very pleasant to listen to also.

        1. John Eel

          Some of the issues were his perceived lack of speed and poor defence. Would that be right Colin.

          If that is true in my opinion it is ill directed. Not justified,give the kid a break

          1. Colin Hussey

            John, I have not seen Haze run and his overall speed except in previous trials, I don’t reccolect him having issue in the finals game last year either his first NRL game.

            His first one this year, I don’t know how fast he ran, but he did record around 120mtrs in attack, he missed a terrible number of tackles, 2, completed and competed quite well.

            Trouble with many of the so called eels fans, (not supporters) is that they want more than any player can really give any justice to their plays. On one hand they demand give our juniors a go, but call them out for being no good after one game, then call for has beens from other clubs to be signed for the eels.

            Many of the fans, will never be satisfied no matter who the players are, locals or imports. Don’t start me on the coach though, even in 3rd place its not good enough to the experts.

            Apologies if I have not answered well enough

          2. !0 Year Member

            If Haze played badly against the Knights…..I must have been watching the wrong game. Fair enough…. The Knights threw nothing at us…. Bad to have a go at him? I know there are a lot of Fergo fans…. I gave
            up on the other site years ago

          3. John Eel

            Colin I was merely trying to reflect what has been said elsewhere about Haze.

            My view is that he has won BA,s hard earned trust. It is time for all supporters to sit back and and watch the kid justify BA’s faith in him.

          4. Colin Hussey

            John, I agree, the problem that I see re Haze is in one word that you put forward, & that is Perceived. Too many IMHO have poor perceptions as a result put down another person/player owing to their own real lack of having the abilities to perceive things correctly.

  2. Mr controversy aka the re

    Good read but i will say one thing. I almost fell off my chair when i read this.

    Offloads were what kept the Tigers in the game against the Eels last time around, No it wasn’t let me say it was our attention to detail n lack of concentration for 80 minutes is what got the tiger’s back in the game.

    What i will say is what a great pick up big ken marmalo is out standing.

    On the game i think if parra are on we win n win well but i think we will miss reed Mahoney big time his darts from dummy half his ball playing before the line n at the try line. Eels by 16

    1. John Eel

      I have not seen enough of Lussick to form an opinion on him. However Mahoney has been outstanding this year and we are going to miss him.

      I thought bad error by Green not to pick for SOO. I wish him well in his recovery

      1. Colin Hussey

        Agree with you John, not sure regarding Lussick as to his abilities, did he get a run not long back in the top squad, tend to reccolect he may have, but not long enough to form any sort of opinion on him though.

        I notice the Roache has been left on the reserves bench with Will. Depending on how Lussick goes, Roache may be a possible for the next game.

    2. BDon

      Rev, you’re dead set right about last time, we gave them 4 or 5 leg ups in the space of 15 minutes and Leilua had so many cracks at our right side, he eventually got the points rolling.

  3. John Eel

    Is there any team in the NRL that has had more tries disallowed by the bunker than the Eels?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

%d bloggers like this: