Game Info

Date: Sunday 6 June, 2021

Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Kick Off: 4:05PM AEST

Referee: Adam Gee

Head-to-head: Played 54, Parramatta 23, Newcastle 30, Drawn 1

Odds: Eels $1.27 Knights $3.70

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta 10 d Newcastle 4, Newcastle, R9 2020

Parramatta 20 d Newcastle 14, Bankwest Stadium, R21 2019

Newcastle 28 d Parramatta 14, Newcastle, R7 2019

Newcastle 18 d Parramatta 16, Newcastle, R18 2018

Background

The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem. Brad Arthur, for the first time to my recollection, publicly took the right edge defence to task in his press conference following the pitiful loss to South Sydney last weekend, and has acted on his words by dropping representative winger Blake Ferguson for this week’s clash against Newcastle. That followed a late swap of Waqa Blake and Tom Opacic for the Souths game, which failed to fix a right side that has now leaked 11 tries in two games. It is lower than NSW Cup standard, and it isn’t good enough for a first grade side, especially one with premiership aspirations. 

Funnily enough, we’ll be spending plenty of time talking about edge defence in this week’s preview. Even if things look better this week you can’t take much from it, as the Eels take on a Newcastle side missing the good half of its spine in Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga, among a collection of their best forwards. That by no means makes the Eels sure things this weekend, but it is unlikely they see a lot of elite shape out wide like Manly and Souths used to derail the Parramatta hype train these last two rounds.

After two miserable weeks we all just want to enjoy footy again. Come on Parramatta, don’t let us down.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

There was pain in the stands and pain in the pocket after last week’s result. The Eels backed up a poor performance against Manly with what might just have been an even worse effort against Souths.

Parra’s record against the Knights is not great, having won only four of the last 15 games (2010 onwards), with no winning margin greater than 6 points.

Though I’m confident of an Eels win over a depleted Knights, I keep thinking about the closeness of the few wins, and the fact that it’s old boys day up there.

There’s no value in just selecting a win, so I’m throwing caution to the wind and punting on the score a try and win market.

Our “close to Origin” dummy half will be fired up for a big game. Take Reed Mahoney to score in an Eels win at the odds of $4.25.

Happy, responsible punting everyone.

Sixties

How we look

There is nothing else to talk about but the right-edge defence, which removed a major problem last week with the late swap of Waqa Blake and Tom Opacic only to reveal the first leak was so bad it hid the severity of the second, being Blake Ferguson and his own ineffective decision-making. Ferguson has paid for the Rabbitohs debacle with his first grade spot, making way for Haze Dunster’s second start of his career.

Welcome back Dylan, may we never doubt you again

Don’t confuse last week’s performance for vindication that Waqa Blake isn’t a problem, while he was fine last week he was also barely tested, especially close to the line. He may yet prove to be a better left side defender, and with NRL teams scoring 41% of their tries on the left edge compared to 34% of tries on the right edge, moving him to the quiet side is a smart choice (Thanks Stats Insider for the numbers).

One thing we overlooked last week was how the absence of Dylan Brown has impacted the right edge. ABC’s Jack Snape had a great overview of Brown’s defensive prowess two weeks ago that is well worth a read, but the coincidence of Blake’s return with Brown’s absence has hidden the importance of Dyl to the Eels defensive structure. Jake Arthur had a few happy attacking moments in his three game stint, but he also showed a lot of 18-year-old defence and his inexperience against elite NRL attacking shape and in defensive decision making. Brown’s rock solid defence inside will make it easier on the outside men, reducing the complexity of the decisions they need to make as they can trust Dyl to make his tackles without assistance.

The Eels play compressed defence, defending from the inside out. This has created the second strongest defensive middle in the competition, conceding only six tries (behind only the record breaking Panthers who had conceded five before this week). It also puts a lot of pressure on the outside men when the opposition are given time to shift the ball. Fergo (and Waqa) timed their rushes poorly, leaving too much space outside them and failing to shut down the inside player. In a compressed defence the outside men will face overlaps by design, and the recent combinations of players haven’t been able to handle that.

With Dylan back, the back rower and centre defending around him will have more trust to make one-on-one tackles and will better keep the defensive shape, reducing the rush decisions the winger needs to make. With that, we’ll get to see if a Dunster/Opacic combination is the answer. Waqa Blake and Dunster defended that edge well enough against South Sydney in the semi final last year, perhaps that combination will get another chance. Regardless, something needed to be done, and the whole edge will be scrutinised this week. It will be interesting to see which move has the biggest impact: Dylan’s return, Opacic’s swap or Dunster replacing Fergo. I expect it will be a few weeks before we have a clear answer.

One more thing: the scrum defence. It is so easy to get right and number up. Getting beaten one-on-one off a scrum is a disaster, but these things happen. Some players just have a step, a fend or pure speed that can beat you. Getting beaten for numbers on a scrum, that is unacceptable. Lazily letting Damien Cook run from the scrumbase, unacceptable. Count, shift and adjust. It’s a direct indictment on the coaching of the team if they can’t get scrum defence right. It needs to be better.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Waqa Blake 5. Haze Dunster 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Marata Niukore 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Will Smith 15. Shaun Lane 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Joey Lussick 19. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Jake Arthur 21. Will Penisini.

The lack of Origin representation is a good result for the Eels, especially with Reed available to play this weekend after being released from Queensland camp. While Reagan Campbell-Gillard should feel particularly hard done by for missing an Origin spot, NSW coach Brad Fittler went the other way on all other potential Eels representatives, including Ryan Matterson, Nathan Brown, Clint Gutherson and Shaun Lane, who had all been the subject of selection chatter in the last few weeks. Hopefully this is a motivator for the overlooked Eels.

Haze Dunster gets his long awaited chance

Dylan Brown returns after three weeks out suspended, the right-edge defence will appreciate his return as discussed above, along with the replacement of Blake Ferguson with Haze Dunster. RCG comes back from his own one-week suspension to replace Junior Paulo who is on Origin duty, while Marata Niukore pushes Oregon Kaufusi back to the bench. Will Smith returns from injury to take up the troubled bench utility role that Brad Arthur has struggled to adequately fill in the versatile Smith’s absence. 

Newcastle

1. Tex Hoy 2. Starford To’a 3. Enari Tuala 4. Bradman Best 5. Brayden Musgrove 6. Connor Watson 7. Phoenix Crossland 8. Sauaso Sue 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Jacob Saifiti 11. Brodie Jones 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Mitchell Barnett. 14. Kurt Mann 15. Josh King 16. Jack Johns 17. Simi Sasagi. 18. Jake Clifford 19. Jirah Momoisea 20. Matt Croker 21. Gehamat Shibasaki. 

Newcastle is suffering through its own injury and suspension crisis, with Tyson Frizell, Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga and Edrick Lee all absent through injury, while David Klemmer is suspended and Daniel Saifiti on Origin duty. That is six representative players out of the squad. There are no excuses for the Eels this week against a weakened Knights side, even if they did pull off an upset against Manly last weekend.

One late change to watch for is Jake Clifford moving into the halves, the former Cowboy arrived at Newcastle this week and could be rushed into the starting team. Clifford has one try and one assist from seven games in the North Queensland halves this year, so there is little to fear if he does debut. Connor Watson has been shifted around before kickoff almost every game this year, but word is that Kurt Mann is the one who will make way for Clifford’s club debut.

The Knights bench is very light on if it runs out as named, with Mann and Sasagi both halves while Jack Johns is a lightweight second rower who has played most of his footy in the halves. While the absence of Junior Paulo means the Eels are themselves a little short in middle muscle, I’d expect that even a fire in the belly for Newcastle’s Old Boys Day won’t be enough for their tired pack against RCG, Marata, Kaufusi and Papali’i late in both halves.

Intangibles

Newcastle is a tough place to win at the best of times, and while Parramatta has had a better run of it in recent years some of that is due to the historic awfulness of the mid-2010s Knights sides. Newcastle has decided to up the difficulty and move its traditional end of season “Old Boys Day” game to mid season for their clash with Parramatta, celebrating the 20th anniversary of some game back in 2001. I hardly think the Eels beating the Knights 40-0 is worth celebrating for them, and that’s the only game I remember between the two sides from that year.

Don’t be scared by Old Boys Day. For a start, the difference in class between the Eels and Knights is such that even a fired up Newcastle team shouldn’t trouble Parramatta. It is also a bit of a myth that the Knights are unbeatable on Old Boys Day, which may have been true in the late 90s and early 2000s but wins in the last two seasons against out-of-contention Dragons and Titans sides broke a four year losing streak. Five minutes of having to tackle RCG, Papali’i and Nathan Brown will quickly put a team in its place, even one pumped up because Bill Peden and Matt Parsons did a lap of the field on the back of a Crewman before the game.

Luke Burt scored three tries against Newcastle back in 2001 in the Eels only clash with the Knights

One worry will be a fired up crowd and opposition if the Eels concede meek early points as they have done in all losses this year. A strong start is crucial. We don’t need to blow them away on the scoreboard, just make sure that an arm wrestle starts to take the early momentum out of the game. 

Adam Gee is the referee, but once again the man in the middle doesn’t matter so much as the instructions he has been given. The high tackle crackdown was quietly calmed in round 12, but inconsistency between games became the big talking point. As long as both sides get the same treatment I can deal with inconsistency compared to other games in the round, though I’d prefer Gee takes the lenient side of the policy rather than the hardline. Peter V’landys is certainly one to get his back up in the face of criticism, so another hardening of the sin bin edict could be coming. We’ll know by Sunday at least, and in the end the best way to avoid the bin is to not hit a man high.

The Opposition

While the win against Manly last week was good on paper, a closer look reveals two tries scored against 12 men and an old school 9-1 penalty count in favour of the home side, the kind of home cooking that would make a French referee blush. Before that game the Knights had been easily handled by the bottom dwellers of the NRL, including giving the Tigers half of their 2021 wins (before this week). This clash against the Eels will be their third matchup against a top five side, so they haven’t got quality of opposition as an excuse. It hasn’t been a great year for the Knights by any measure.

The Knights struggle to score points in 2021, not exactly surprising when you consider their two best playmakers in Ponga and Pearce have barely seen the field this year. Strike outside back Bradman Best also missed a stint, reducing the Newcastle attack to what hooker Jayden Brailey can create around the ruck. Mitchell Barnett has been good this year, and Lachlan Fitzgibbon will be better for a few runs and is a dangerous edge runner. They lack shape and the players to execute shape, good news for the Eels’ fragile right edge, though getting Bradman Best to ground may prove a challenge.

Speaking of right edges, the Knights right side might be the only defensive combination worse than the Eels this year, having leaked 28 tries, worst in the NRL by total and by percentage (52% of all Knights tries conceded). If Waqa Blake wants to get back into the good books of Eels fans, this is his best chance, but Parramatta need to show more commitment to the middle of the field before spreading wide. It is all about patience and execution this week.

The story

If Parramatta show up for this one, they win. Simple as that. Looking at these two rosters, at how both teams have played this year, right edge issues and all, Old Boys Day or not, this one is for Parramatta to lose. 

I expect Reg to continue his rich form after a one-week enforced rest

The Eels not showing up is unacceptable following two substandard weeks against top calibre opposition. Parramatta used two chances to make a statement to the whole league to instead take a steaming dump on the field and over long suffering fans’ expectations, dropping three in a row just cannot happen. If Brad Arthur can’t get his men ready for this one, it’ll be time to mute “Eels” and “BA” on Twitter for the week.

Newcastle are missing three starting forwards, all Origin or Australian representatives, plus the representative half of their spine. Parramatta is missing Junior Paulo. That should equal middle dominance and off the back of that, chances to throw shape at the worst edge defence in the NRL. Even if the Knights come out fired up and match the Eels in the middle for long stretches, Parramatta has superior depth, a bigger, stronger bench and before the last two weeks were the best second half team in the competition. It should result in an Eels win.

I’ll be watching this one with teeth clenched no doubt, and Parramatta has made a habit of making things tougher than they need to be, but anything other than an Eels win is an absolute disaster this weekend. I’m choosing to believe, and predict a tough but eventually comfortable Parramatta victory. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 30 d Newcastle Knights 10

Man of the Match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard

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