Game Info

Date: Friday, May 7, 2021

Venue: Bankwest Stadium, Parramatta

Kick Off: 7:55PM AEST

Referee: Matt Cecchin

Head-to-head: Played 133, Parramatta 62, Sydney 66, Drawn 5

Odds: Eels $1.50 Roosters $2.55

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Sydney 24 d Parramatta 10, Bankwest Stadium, R6 2020

Sydney 32 d Parramatta 18, Stadium Australia, R3 2019

Sydney 44 d Parramatta 10, Stadium Australia, R25 2018

Sydney 48 d Parramatta 10, Sydney Football Stadium, R10 2017

Background

After a couple of warm up runs against the competition also rans, it’s “prove it” time for Parramatta as the always formidable Sydney Roosters come to Bankwest, wounded but still very dangerous and boasting an impressive recent record against the Blue & Gold. 

While not quite as rare as hen’s teeth, the mysteries of the NRL draw have conspired for the best part of ten years to only deliver one Eels v Roosters clash per season, leaving some embarrassing “first versus worst” hidings from the Eels dark days in the recent record. Ignore those “put 40 on them in two of the last four” stories the lazier of pundits will put forward this week, and focus on those two most recent clashes. Both were closer than the final scoreline suggests, but both were contests that the Eels stood tall in before being run over late by a relentless Sydney side.

Those late stages have been an accurate representation of the gap between the competition benchmarks and Parramatta since 2019; close but not exactly touching distance. This year might be different, and the Eels will not get a better chance to sock the Roosters one right on the kisser than this Friday at Bankwest. It won’t be easy, but this will be the best chance in some time for Parramatta to square the ledger against the Roosters.

Sixties Speculates (Odds quoted are NSW TAB)

The winning streak came to a halt last week.

 In the first half market we took Parra to cover the 9.5 start to the Dogs with over 20.5 total first half points. After skipping out to an early 16 nil lead and seemingly well on track to get us the $ win, the Eels lost momentum.

This week, I’m venturing into the score a try and win market. I just have the feeling that Mitch Moses will look to make a statement against young Walker.

So, it’s Moses to score a try in an Eels win, at the odds of $6.50. Don’t rule out Junior to score either. I reckon he’s due a big match.

Happy, responsible punting.

Sixties

How we look

There was a lot of “doing what needs to be done” about the Eels win over the Bulldogs, storming to an early lead then turning down the intensity which led to some uncharacteristic errors and eventually a couple of Bulldogs tries. Despite the enthusiasm from Fox commentator Dan Ginnane, who apparently took the previous night’s Broncos comeback to mean that bottom dwelling sides overcoming a 22 point deficit was a regular occurrence, as soon as Canterbury got within sniffing distance Parramatta kicked it up a gear and bounded away to a comfortable win.

Has Marata earned a permanent spot in the backline with his huge efforts?

Last week was our first glimpse at what is mostly a full strength Eels pack, with only Marata Niukore to return to middle duties after his extended stint as an outside back. It feels unfair to add the tough running and power game of Isaiah Papali’i to the power and skill of Junior Paulo, relentless metre eating of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and the newly-appreciated ballplaying of Nathan Brown, who contrary to media reports has been capable of passing at the line before this year. Clint Gutherson and Reed Mahoney have been the beneficiaries, with Gutho relishing the extra time he has to link between forwards and backs, while Reed is terrorising opposing defenders with his pass selection and the plethora of choices he has in ball runners.

We’ve mentioned him a few times here, but Dylan Brown probably had his worst game of the season last weekend, and the emergence of a fellow star teenage half in the opposition this week has recalibrated how many people feel about Brown’s first grade career. Sam Walker has more try assists in his five game first grade career than Dylan Brown has in his 40 games, coming into first grade as a fully formed playmaker. Dylan is far from that, but it is important to remember two things: he doesn’t need to be that playmaker in this team, and he has plenty of unteachable skills of his own that make him a valuable first grader right now.

Those unteachable skills are primarily his elite defensive ability for a half, and the strength of his running game and ball carrying. It is underrated how important it is to have a half who can’t be easily targeted in defence, just look at what happened to the Rabbitohs and Benji Marshall last night. Brown might only have 11 career try assists, but I reckon he would have double that in try saving, one-on-one tackles near the line. Watch Junior, Papali’i and co. target Walker this week, and be glad that when similar opponents try that on Dyl, he cuts them down time after time.

His running game is still in need of calibration, but Dylan presents a credible threat every time he touches the ball for his ability to break a tackle, and this will only become more valuable when he balances his passing game more and doesn’t flick a “one or the other” switch as soon as he gets the ball. The good news is he can learn that with experience, and while Mitchell Moses is around to take primary playmaking duties from him, he can pick and choose his moments. If he’d drop the ball cold a bit less I’d be happier, but Brown is warming into the season and his role in this team and you shouldn’t let the emergence of a freak playmaker dampen how you feel about a player that is still a special young talent.

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Tom Opacic 4. Marata Niukore 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Oregon Kaufusi 15. Shaun Lane 16. Haze Dunster 17. Bryce Cartwright. 18. Joey Lussick 19. Keegan Hipgrave 20. Wiremu Greig 21. Jordan Rankin

Brad Arthur has named the same 21 as last week, with Nathan Brown overcoming what looked to be a very painful injury against the Bulldogs to take his spot in the 13. Will Smith and Ray Stone remain sidelined with injury, while Waqa Blake is reportedly getting closer to returning. If he makes his way back through NSW Cup or not is the big question, with Marata Niukore offering a welcome defensive stability on that edge in his place.

This is the week that I hope to become a Carty Party believer. He has been impressive in his last two starts with some high effort and high skill attacking plays, and if he can be that same kind of force against elite opposition he will be a real asset to the Eels in 2021. The signs are good, but if those attacking plays turn into “doing too much” mistakes against the best teams then Cartwright won’t be more than a novelty for the side.

The Carty Party could explode on Friday night

I don’t know what Arthur is doing with Haze Dunster on the bench. Presumably he is there to cover HIA or injury striking in the backline, being on the regular bench allows him to come on immediately to replace an injury rather than waiting for HIA failures or hoping for foul play to be reported. With the game well in hand last week he got a few minutes late, but if he is just there to cover injury I wouldn’t expect to see him take the field against the Roosters.

Sydney

1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Matt Ikuvalu 6. Drew Hutchison 7. Sam Walker 8. Isaac Liu 9. Ben Marschke 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley. 14. Adam Keighran 15. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 16. Fletcher Baker 17. Daniel Suluka-Fifita. 18. Egan Butcher 19. Naufahu Whyte 20. Lachlan Lam 21. Joseph Suaalii 24. Tuku Hau Tapuha.

Most teams can only wish to look this strong with eight regular first graders injured or suspended. While the depleted Roosters lineup was more than enough to handle the Knights last week, look back to their loss to Melbourne the week before for a benchmark of the difference between the best Sydney team and this one.

The pack is starting to thin out though, and that is where the Eels will want to win this one. The bench is severely lacking in experience beyond Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, who is equally likely to take this team on his back as he is to self-destruct. Marschke has been serviceable at hooker but he’s a long way down the Roosters depth chart for a reason, and Adam Keighran doesn’t have a lot of experience at rake either. If the late fade of recent Eels/Roosters games plays out in this one, I will be very disappointed given the difference in quality between the two benches.

Intangibles

It’s wet and miserable in Sydney this week, though my definition of wet has been recalibrated following the Melbourne game back in round two. This is just “slippery” wet, not “biblical” wet. The rain and the recent COVID outbreak might dull the crowd somewhat, but chances are Eels fans will be watching this one with every muscle clenched regardless and if the Roosters score first, you’ll be able to hear a pin drop at Bankwest.

We’re also facing our second rules crackdown of the year, this time on cynical use of the six again to reset defensive structures early in the tackle count. Oh, and high contact will be more heavily penalised too. We saw more penalties for soft high contact than I am used to in the game last night, so players will need to be careful. The expectation is probably that every early six again should be a full penalty, but realistically I’d be surprised if we see more than one or two early in the game to set a tone.

Matt Cecchin will referee his first Eels game since 2019, while the Roosters have put a hiding on in the last four they’ve had Cecchin in the middle for. Of course, those four games were against the Knights, Bulldogs, Tigers and Warriors, so hidings weren’t out of the ordinary. He’s about middle of the pack for set restart numbers.

The Opposition

Looking at that Roosters lineup, you wouldn’t think this is a team that has copped four season ending injuries and has a club captain being held out until mid season. This is still a scary lineup, especially with the form Sam Walker has shown in his young career thus far.

Always a danger, even in a depleted side

The backline is still incredibly strong, and will be a massive threat to the Eels in good ball. The key for Parramatta will be limiting those chances, and looking at the Roosters pack and especially their bench, you would back the Eels to control field position. That will also require good discipline and handling, neither of which have been much of a problem for Parramatta outside of that baffling Dragons game.

Pressure will be placed on Blake Ferguson and Maika Sivo to make the right decisions in defence, with Walker showing an elite long passing game that could get outside the rush-happy Eels flankers. Parramatta has handled “through the hands” shifts relatively well, thanks to strong one-on-one tackling and good scramble in compressed spaces, but getting the ball wide early will present a challenge. 

I can’t go a full preview without giving James Tedesco his due. He is a powerhouse runner that breaks tackles with ease, with elite support play and a knack to find himself running angles against flat footed defenders and drawing arm tackles he easily brushes aside. Support on the inside will be crucial, no defender on the inside can relax once the ball moves past them. Looking at you, Laney. His partnership with Walker and Hutchison hasn’t hit stride just yet, but he’s so good that just getting him the ball makes him a threat, it doesn’t need to be good ball.

The story

This isn’t one Parramatta can take lightly, but they won’t get a better chance than this to beat the Roosters. It’s an important one to win considering one of the top five teams will miss out on a second chance in the finals, so you don’t want to be losing games to fellow contenders and risk finishing fifth. The dominance of Penrith at the top of the ladder is hiding it, but the Eels are still a big minor premiership contender right now so staying within a game of the leaders in a year where they might only lose three or four games is a huge incentive.

That’s all looking a long way forward, and it is the type of thinking that is fine for us wistful fans, but the Eels can’t engage in that kind of daydreaming. They still need to be near their best to beat even an injury ravaged Roosters side, because this backline will punish any team that gives them opportunities.

I expect the blueprint from the Melbourne and Canberra wins to be reused here. Mitch Moses and his controlled kicking game will be a huge factor, and ball control will be king. There won’t be much ambition to play out of our own half, just hard running and mistake free footy. Wear them down, get a lead and earn the right to throw the ball a bit and try to put the Roosters away.

In the end, there are weak points in this Roosters team, and Parramatta need to be able to exploit them. Expect the Eels to pressure some of these bench rookies, to test the inexperienced Roosters halves in defence and to stretch inexperienced edge combinations. It will require a controlled, patient gameplan, but Parramatta has proven themselves more than capable of executing that plan this year, and I expect that to continue tonight. Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 22 Sydney Roosters 18

Man of the Match: Isaiah Papali’i

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