The Cumberland Throw

Stats That Matta – Ferguson and Sivo: A Comparison Across Seasons

 

Whether it be by physique or reputation, Parramatta’s Maika Sivo and Blake Ferguson are rated as two of the most powerful wingers in the premiership.

Without question, their recruitment was instrumental in the Eels rise from wooden spoon to finalists in 2019.

Yet, despite Parramatta rising to third place in 2020, the contributions of both wingers were questioned in season post-mortems. Was this fair? 

Perhaps a statistical comparison of the past two seasons could provide validity to any criticisms.

 

Maika Sivo 

* Attack

Sivo burst onto the scene in Round 1 2019 and played in 25 games that season. He played in 21 games in 2020.

In that debut year, Sivo ran 353 times but he could only tally 264 carries in 2020. Taking into account the different number of games in each season, that’s an average of 14.12 runs against 12.57, a fall of around one and a half runs per game.

Sivo

The big Fijian’s running metres also suffered in 2020. After averaging  145.8 metres per game in 2019, his 2020 metres dropped to 112.6. This drop was also reflected in his post contact metres, where he totalled 1130 metres (45.2m per game) in 2019 against 834 metres in 2020 (39.71 per game) in 2020.

This trend continued in his total involvement rate. His involvements numbered 395 (17.95 per game) in 2019 but only 307 (14.62 per game) in 2020. 

Anecdotal evidence last season highlighted a decline in Sivo’s devastating runs. If we measure this using tackle breaks, a fall from 77 tackle breaks (average 3.5) in 2019 to 49 (2.33) in 2020 would seem to support such observations.

* Defence

The numbers returned by Sivo across the two seasons make for interesting reading.

In 2019 Maika had 115 defensive involvements. He made 85 tackles with 25 missed and 5 ineffective tackles. This gives him a tackle efficiency of 73.9%.

In contrast, the crowd favourite had only 79 defensive involvements in 2020. He made 56 tackles with 11 missed and 12 ineffective. This meant that his tackle efficiency rate fell to 70.9%.

It could be that the fewer involvements were the result of the opposition attacking Parramatta’s right side more than their left.

Regardless, the fall in Sivo’s tackling efficiency in 2020 is another indicator of a season that he would want to improve.

 

Blake Ferguson 

* Attack

Blake Ferguson’s 2020 try scoring drought was a focus point for criticism of his form. Many believed that if he wasn’t scoring tries, he wasn’t doing his job. By season’s end his try tally had dipped from 10 in 2019 to 4 tries in 2020.

Taking try scoring out of the equation, a comparison of his 2019 and 2020 figures prove that opinions based solely on try scoring might be unjustified.

Across the last two years, Fergo magically aligned his games with his seasons – he played 19 games in 2019 and 20 games in 2020.

Fergo

His total runs increased slightly from 300 (15.79 per game) in 2019 to 327 (16.35) in 2020. Ferguson’s average run metres fell slightly, from 152.08 metres 2019 to 147.63 metres in 2020, whilst his tackle breaks remained steady with a minor increase from 51 (2.68 per game) to 56 (2.8).

The most surprising difference is found in his post contact metres. His return climbed from 782.8 (41.2 per game) metres to 1150 (57.5 per game) metres in 2020. 

This meant that he gained an extra 16.3 metres per game in 2020 – an impressive increase of around 37%.

Another surprise can be found in his total errors. Despite playing an extra game in 2020 his season errors dropped from 30 in 2019 to 25 in 2020. Though this doesn’t specify when the errors were made, and that is a critical factor, it does emphasise that he was more error prone in his first season with the Eels.

 

* Defence

In 2019 Ferguson had 112 defensive involvements. He made 85 tackles, missing 21 with a further 6 ineffective. This produced a tackle efficiency rate of 75.9%.

In 2020 his defensive involvements climbed to 151. Fergo made 121 tackles with 23 misses and 7 ineffectives. Despite the greater defensive load, his tackle efficiency rate increased to 80.1%.

Looking further into this, the two wingers had very similar involvements in 2019, Sivo with 115 and Ferguson 112.

As suspected, this was not the case in 2020, with Sivo involved 79 times compared to Ferguson’s 151. The right winger having almost double the questions asked of the left.

Despite this, Ferguson produced close to a 10% better tackle efficiency.

Conclusion

Statistically, the numbers seem to provide the evidence that Sivo’s second season was not as strong as his first.

Conversely, despite having a frustrating 2020, Ferguson’s raw statistics were much better than most would have considered.

Regardless, it could be guaranteed that both would be looking for improvement in 2021.

 

Implications For 2021

In his training reports, Sixties has praised the efforts of both wingers. It has been Sivo’s first uninterrupted NRL pre-season, and his condition has benefitted accordingly.

Ferguson has likewise lifted on the training track, impressing with his powerful opposed session performances.

In the trial against the Panthers, and despite being replaced, Sivo produced more runs, more running metres and greater post contact metres than his 2020 averages. Though Ferguson made fewer runs and running metres in the trial than his 2020 averages, he returned higher post contact metres than he did on average in 2020.

Though it was only a trial, it was encouraging that the wingers contributed mostly improved  numbers in a loss.

Looking ahead, both are fit, both are motivated and if they can return to their best form, it will go a long way towards driving the Eels to the 2021 finals.

Eels supporters are ready to chant for Sivo. They’re ready to watch Fergo celebrate tries and victories.

Over to the fellas!

 

Colmac

 

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40 thoughts on “Stats That Matta – Ferguson and Sivo: A Comparison Across Seasons

  1. AJAX

    Would love to see these two at their destructive best in 2021. What a weird season last year was

    1. sixties

      My first observation is that both have had far better preseasons. My second is a surprise at Fargo’s stats but no real surprise about Maika’s. It was an ordinary year in comparison to 2019 and I am expecting this year to be much different.

  2. Colin Hussey

    Interesting stats Colmac and will need to read them again as in some ways watching them both over the last two seasons, both appeared to have had better plays in 2019 than last year.

    In Sivo’s first year he was an unknown quantity/quality but really presented himself as a powerful winger able to knock defenders out & away with ease, and in most cases from long distance runs. 2020 he had bulked up a lot or that’s how he looked and was really only scoring from runs closer to the try line. He apparently or would seem to have swapped speed for bulk/power which appeared to not that noticeable on the paddock.

    This year he appears to have dropped the muscle as he definately looks lighter, will that equate in him gaining/getting his speed and power back?

    Fergo, frustrated me last year and the same in the trial against the Riff, he seemed to spend more time in the play the ball area as he became the primary ball runner in kick returns from the mid field rather than on the wing. While he is a strong runner, he seems to have continued with his inherited hands from a couple of former eels forwards.

    The big area that we need to see with both of the wingers is to be able to work well with their inside centre partners, Its a new lend on the left side and depending on who claims the 3 spot will determine that side. On the other side, is the repeat Fergo/Waqa combo. I thought Waqa was a bit better in the trial but still got out of position, can that side be fixed?

    Huge question which needs a huge answer in the positive going forward into this years season. With that I look forward to you weekly stat reports, enjoyed them in the past few years and hopefully 2021.

    1. sixties

      Col, from last year, the tries scored on the Eels right side was a major concern. It was interesting to see whether both Dylan Brown and Shaun Lane on that side change that. The unsurprising stat was the number of defensive involvements required of each winger, which is reflective of the attack thrown at each side.

      1. Colin Hussey

        Sixties, fair call, the only point on that is that in 2019 Lane and Dylan worked exceptionally well on the left side with Shaun getting some very nice passes away especially to Dylan on his inside to score, we did not see that last year, nor Shaun’s attacking runs & breaking the defence.

        If they could do that on the left side in 19, why not in 21, the question then becomes is the left side the best for Matto, to make a fist of it. I still think also that lane may well be better off the bench as shown in one game (sadly) last year.

        As for the right side, Waqa certainly comes in a bit too often and realistically gets too close to his inside mate, both in defence & attack, that means Ferg’s has to come in as well, leaving a big hole to the side line, as I mentioned in the first comment Ferg’s coming into the middle for the kick returns I would suggest does not help the attack as he starts flat and then often is swamped by defenders, I wonder if that takes a lot of his energy/abilities away.

        I believe the best kick returner in the team is Gutho, as he has better footwork and speed, just need one of the other backs to take the high balls and get tackled if they cannot run, and have the king take it forward somewhat.

  3. Kev

    Interesting stats.
    Fergo was well below his best last season . I don’t think analytics account for his reads in defence and his communication with his inside men. The defence on that side of the field improved out of sight in the final he missed with a rookie winger .
    I also though positionally he was extremely poor in attack and defence for an experienced winger. He killed a few chances in attack and was regularly caught out in defence . Have to wonder where his mind was in 2020. To me it’s no suprise we haven’t moved to re-sign him beyond this season.
    Sivo had a case of second year syndrome and hopefully a good preseason will see him improve .

    1. Ewen Bishop

      I don’t think analytics account for his reads in defence and his communication with his inside men.”
      It would be interesting to see how many of his mis-reads in defence were when he was forced to move in field because his inside man had already gone in field.
      Waqa seemed to go in field far too often looking for a big hit or trying to cut a play off (whereas he could have/should have waited for the play to come to him AND Fergo). This resulted in Fergo becoming stranded on his lonesome facing 2 or more attacking players.
      While 2020 wasn’t Blake’s best year, I think a fair percentage of his errors could be traced down to a lack of communication with his inside man. It can be hard to communicate with someone who isn’t there half the time.

      1. sixties

        Ewen, it’s a fair point. I simply didn’t rate their combination last year, and it wasn’t like time wasn’t put into it. They have to be on the same page and communicate better. Whether that improves with different players inside them remains to be seen.

    2. sixties

      Kev, I cant disagree. And it was interesting that Fergo’s defensive involvements were nearly double that of Sivo. I can definitely guarantee that Fergo has had a better preseason this year. And I believe he is looking to prove a point. That can only benefit both parties if it translates into an improved season.

  4. Clive

    I’m glad this topic was brought up actually. Last week I was watching a game from mid 2019 and I was shocked how much leaner Sivo was back then. I don’t know what the official figures say but to me he had to be 6-7kgs heavier in 2020 and I believe it goes a long way in explaining his drop in form.
    The guy is strong enough regardless of size so he’s much better off being lighter, faster and fitter as opposed to being like a Mack truck.

    1. Anonymous

      Sivo was heavier last year running at about 110-115kg and this year he’s back and 105-107 kg the weight that he was playing in 2019.

        1. Anonymous

          When he was playing at penrith he was at 102-105 kg and he scored some length of the field tries if you watch his highlights and he’s coach at the time just got one message to maika and that is to run the ball

  5. Anonymous

    At times last year I believe some of our harsher fan base where pretty scathing in their comments on both these guys. Both in regards to their attack and defence, in essence these stats both validate and deny it’s justification. Remembering it’s a team sport first and foremost both these guys had mixed support at times again both in attack and defence, my hope is to see our team work more as one this year, our forwards need to keep up the impressive meters they make to bring either of these into a position where their true talents can be utilised. Clean hands quick hands in attack will give these guys the edge.

  6. BDon

    Tks Colmac..interesting write up. I still reckon Fergo had injury recovery issues in both seasons. A guess only, ribs then knee.
    I also wonder if Sivo had a head full of improvement drills in 2020.
    Only one game but both looked good in the trial.

    1. sixties

      BDon, unquestionably Fergo was hampered by injury issues, but I was looking for the level of invested leadership in 2020 that he demonstrated in 2019. He has shown good signs at training of lifting in that respect.

  7. Brett Allen

    I was never concerned about Fergo’s try scoring last year, at least not because of him. I can’t recall him bombing a single try scoring opportunity that he should been expected to make. The issue was we kept on going sideways when we went right, running Fergo out of room.
    The problem starts with Mitch, he plays far too wide off the ruck, the A & sometimes B defenders are automatically taken out of the equation, Mitch gives them a pass by not engaging them, a situation exacerbated by Reed Mahoney’s own deficiency in this area. As a result, the opposition backrower can hold and slide comfortably knowing the sideline becomes an extra defender.
    Our spine has to play much ore narrowly, that will give the likes of Waqa Blake much more space to work in, which will result in points.

    1. Mondo Rocks

      I agree. It was the inside men that dictated Fergo’s season. Obviously still went looking for it as his stats improvement support. Anyway, I think he will have super year – contract year!

  8. Micky D's

    Teams are more aware of Sivo’s capabilities and rarely kick to his flank resulting in less meters, he is also more heavily marked all around the park.
    Its natural that a player of his abilities that his stats would suffer as opposition coaches put plans around him.
    The club must look to extend him asap as he is a great finishing winger, and one of our few attacking points close to the line.

    If people are looking at these stats as a reason not to rush out and resign Sivo, think again, because I doubt we would have made the top 6 without him.

    1. Micky D's

      Also , can anyone believe that Sivo is unsigned past 2021 ? I find this unbelievable that we’re waiting as long to get it done. Like I said these stats don’t matter when you’re heavily marked.
      This could turn out to be a disaster if we don’t get Sivo on a long deal asap.

    2. sixties

      Micky, I don’t think that the stats would point to not signing Sivo. His form this year will determine that, and I’ve already reported on his preseason efforts. But his kick returns in 2020 were not of the quality he is capable if, and he followed them with slow play the balls. On Saturday he was much more energised in his carries into contact on kick returns, which is exactly what he’s worked on at training. If he keeps this up his future will take care of itself.

      1. Micky D's

        Yep, maybe with the Roosters. He has done enough to warrant an extension now in my opinion. Teams are lining up right now trust me. Where are we going to find another winger of his capabilities & look at the trial, we always went to Sivo in a bid to find that try.
        If he hasn’t done enough in the last two years to warrant a contract right now the club is kidding themselves.

        I also think Sivo gets a heap of energy from crowds which were lacking in 2020 and also we know how attached he is to his family which he wouldn’t have been able to see due to Covid Two big factors when assessing his form which was still verygood.

  9. Offside

    I don’t see either as been part of the problem both have strengths and weaknesses the waga/fergo defence combo will be interesting and vitally needs improvement.
    Our inept red zone attack and lack of a quality 7 will be what effects the big moment offensive stat’s from both players.

    1. sixties

      I guess we’ll soon see how Moses plays and how our attack performs. I reckon you’re judging a little harshly, but your opinion is just as valid as mine.

      1. Offside

        I think Moses is a very good 6 as is Brown and that’s our problem.
        Flip side to that I think Moses indervidually is in for a good year

  10. Zero58

    I truly believe Sivo suffered from a second year syndrome and was heavily marked. While the left side may have been a little ignored compared to Ferguson/Blake there was a period when Sivo lost confidence and his form suffered. That may explain why a heavier concentration on the left side.
    As for Ferguson, his ability and strength in taking the ball up should never be sold short.
    The problem with Ferguson is his overconfidence which tends to contribute to his handling errors. Ferguson at times makes a complete hash of the bouncing ball particularly when he has to turn and chase.
    They are great wingers and on their day match winners.
    Sivo needs to run really hard at the opposition, the best example was the last game against the Broncos when he ran into a bunch of players resulting one leaving the ground.
    I think Sivo’s modesty holds him back. For certain Parra should make every effort to retain him while Sivo should remember who gave him his break. When that comes back to mind he then should get a new manager.
    By the way the game against Penrith in the first half was a cracker. Much to Mr Sixties disgust Penrith got up. Let’s not forget that Penrith regardless of ladder position and game they always lift 50 percent against Parra.
    If it was any other team Parra would have run out comfortable winners.
    Both teams were walking back after a kick chase sometimes still after two tackles. It was hit and fast. An excellent first half workout.
    But, there is still a lot of room for improvement and shaking off a bit of rust won’t hurt.

    1. Colin Hussey

      Sivo’s two most horrendous tackle busts was one against a Manly player with the best one against the chooks #1 Tedesco.

    2. sixties

      Hey Zero, I was actually quite relaxed watching it – not overburdened by expectation in a trial. For mine, Sivo did not, for whatever reason, return the ball as hard as he should have in 2020. I thought he was looking to earn a penalty in the tackle far too often, which slowed up our play. I’ve been seeing a far different Sivo at training this preseason.

      1. Micky D's

        Sixties that’s up to the coach to coach that sort of rubbish out of him. Do you think Bellamy would continually allow this mate ???

  11. Dday

    Good analysis Colmac. Confirms Sivo was off his game last year big time and also confirms Fergo picked up the slack doing more hit ups, running further and more defence – no wonder he looked bashed up by the end. Defensively no doubt Fergo did more because his side was targeted – but he backed up doing more than his share of hitups – he’s all heart.
    Hope they both fire this year. If sivo isn’t up to the task it’s time to bring in Dunster to share the workload.

    1. sixties

      Dunster is definitely ready to step up and I reckon his pressure is contributing to the training form of both wingers.

      1. Colin Hussey

        Good to hear/read sixties. I am still of the belief that we are a bit weak in the backs, especially with Oldfield going down early and the uncertainty with MJ, we truly need some more strength in the backs.

        In the trial against the dragons I thought Dunster went well and did no harm to his prospects, while not as involved against the riff he did not have a lot of ball likewise a try scored on his side would not have helped him but, other than that, I think he went ok in his time on the field

        I am really looking forward to the mules game, and hope they all turn up and play to their abilities.

        A lot of talk re Lane, looking at his eels profile pic for this season and his profile he has the weight to play in the front row if needed or any in the other positions as well, but for someone that height and his weight his photo, gives him a body shape of a starved grasshopper, I mean no disrespect to him as when his head is right and wanting to play he is strong and is a gifted ball player for his supports, need him to be much more focused and determined in the forwards, perhaps another run off the bench as replacement could help him a lot as was shown with that experiment last year in a game.

  12. Paul Taylor

    SIVO is a one trick pony at the moment. Ten yards out one one on one try. His runs from the end zone were flat and easy to combat. He was butchered low mostly and this is a very confidence zapping tackle on a big man. The big guys want to be hit waist upwards and they can bounce of using fends and strength. The low chop tackle is so effective it is literally nullk and void SIVO.

    He is has to use some evasion in his run. Slight jog, swerve or change of pace. He is not slow and can pass and create. He has to do it. FERGO is out of contract. He will have a big year.

  13. Luke winley

    What time is last year when I felt sorry for Ferguson. It would be nice if they could devise some sort of decoys to stop him running into four defenders every time

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