Game Info

Date: Saturday, October 3, 2020

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Kick Off: 7:50PM AEST

Referee: Ashley Klein

Head-to-head: Played 37, Parramatta 14, Melbourne 23

Odds: Eels $4.80 Storm $1.18

Broadcast: Nine, Fox League, Kayo

Last Four Encounters:

Parramatta 14 d Melbourne 0, Bankwest Stadium, R15 2020

Melbourne 32 d Parramatta 0, AAMI Park, Semi Final 2019

Melbourn 64 d Parramatta 10, Suncorp Stadium, R9 2019

Melbourne 20 d Parramatta 4, AAMI Park, R23 2018

Background

Take a deep breath Eels fans and taste the sweet September October football air. Despite the weekly heart attacks, the naysaying of Gussy the Hutt and not getting a six again call on anything but the first tackle since July, Parramatta is now three wins away from its first premiership in 34 years. Regardless of how you have felt about the attack, the defence, the refereeing, the coaching decisions or the quality of Jack’s Pale Ale, it is time to put all that aside and enjoy the ride of finals footy.

Parramatta has built up plenty of experience in close games this season, taking 9 wins and 2 losses in games decided by a converted try or less. It’s not quite the combined 320 games of finals experience the Storm boast (stat not verified) but it does show that the Eels possess the mental toughness and grit required for finals footy. Despite what you watched each week from Waqa Blake and Blake Ferguson, the Eels are actually an elite defensive side this year, finishing third in points against, behind only our opposition this week and the minor premier Panthers. The old adage is defence wins premierships, so if we had the choice between our current strong defensive record and questionable attack or the other way around, I’d take things as they stand.

Look, you will know as well as I do the record Parramatta has against the Storm, particularly in finals football. You’ll have watched the Eels lose this game in your head a thousand times before kickoff on Saturday night. They’re fighting against history, form and the superteam of the last decade, led by one of the games greatest ever players and its greatest ever coach. It’ll be an heroic effort for the Eels to travel up to Suncorp and come away with a win against the Storm, so humour me while I put on the Blue & Gold glasses and talk about how we can win this game instead of why we can’t.

What happened last time

The result of the last Parramatta v Melbourne clash means as much to this game as the opinion of the Bulldogs board would on recruitment or the Tigers on finals football. The Storm were decimated by injury and it showed in a disjointed attack that couldn’t crack the Eels line in a 14-0 shutout by the Blue & Gold. Brad Arthur famously talked up the Eels renewed focus on defence in the press conference following that win, only for Parramatta to capitulate against Souths the week after and go down 38-0.

On that day Nelson Asofa-Solomona lived up to his “biggest grub in the game” title, niggling every tackle he made before being sin-binned for throwing a shoulder into the head of Marata Niukore, an act for which he missed no games. Post sin bin he played some of his best football of the year, but he will be a big target for the hard-edged footy played by Nathan Brown in this one if he can’t get his discipline under control (and history suggests he cannot).

Ryan Papenhuyzen also had a solid night, but the Eels scramble defence did very well to cut him down multiple times on half breaks. It was probably easier given he was the only attacking threat the team needed to focus on, but it bodes well for their ability to shut down the livewire fullback this weekend.

 

Sixties’ Lucre Quest (Quoted markets are NSW TAB)

I’m stunned by the odds available for the Eels in both the Premiership market and in the first up finals match against the Storm.

It’s astonishing that Parra’s odds have blown out to $21 to take the title after they finished in the top four. They are even showing $8 to qualify for the big dance. Even though we should acknowledge the credentials of the other top 4 teams, to have Canberra and Souths quoted at $12 and $13 respectively shows how little credit is given to the Eels.

If you don’t mind a flutter, the value is insane.

Of course, it’s one week at a time and the first challenge for Parra is immense. And just like the premiership odds, the head to head return offered for the Eels winning this qualifying final are big at $4.50.

I rate Parra’s chances, and as much as the $4.50 and the bigger odds in a range of markets tempts me, I’m looking at the $2 line/total double market. And here’s why – Parramatta receive 17.5 points start, and if you go for overs, the total points only needs to exceed 34.5. I think that there will be between 32-40 points scored in this match, so that line sounds ideal.

Let’s bring this home Parra.

Of course, all you punters should gamble responsibly.

Sixties

Teams

Parramatta

1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Nathan Brown. 14. Will Smith 15. Andrew Davey 16. Kane Evans 17. Marata Niukore. 18. Ray Stone 19. Brad Takairangi  20. Oregon Kaufusi 21. Daniel Alvaro

It is all hands on deck, with Dylan Brown and Marata Niukore making early returns from injury. Dylan is the big addition, not so surprisingly recovering from ankle surgery in only five weeks to take his place in the finals lineup. If he isn’t good to go, Will Smith will likely come in as last week.

Niukore is a big return too, but the bigger news is who he replaces in the lineup. Oregon Kaufusi has been a rock on the bench for most of this season, but he has made way for Simba as Will Smith and Andrew Davey retain their places on the pine. Smith has been good in recent weeks and his matchwinner against Wests is enough by itself to earn one more week of first grade, while Davey has taken full advantage of the starting opportunities he has been given. Kaufusi is unlucky, but a high error rate probably made this decision a bit easier for Brad Arthur.

Don’t expect the late changes of recent weeks to happen again, with Shaun Lane moving to the bench and coming on in a middle forward role. Lane has been the weak link in the starting pack for the second half of the year, but he is still the best option for the team with his attacking skills and combination with Dylan Brown. 

Melbourne

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Brenko Lee 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona. 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tino Faasuamaleaui 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Nicho Hynes. 18. Darryn Schonig 19. Isaac Lumelume 20. Albert Vete 21. Ryley Jacks. 

Melbourne are almost full strength here, with Dale Finucane the only man out and honestly, NAS at lock is a scarier proposition than the workhorse Finucane. Tino Faasuamaleaui has also been impressive when playing in the 13, finding the try line on bargeovers with alarming regularity. The Eels middle defence is air tight, but these are two massive humans that will be hard to contain near the line. NAS in particular will have watched what David Fifita did to Mitchell Moses two weeks ago and be hoping to line the much smaller man up one-on-one.

The Storm bench is an interesting one, with Brandon Smith playing above his weight in the middle but there is a notable lack of size outside of big Tino. If the Eels can get more than their share of possession there will be chances for Junior, RCG and Evans either running at smaller men or tired big guys. Tino and NAS aren’t bad defenders by any means, but they do have a lower effective tackle percentage than many middle forwards.

Intangibles

Ashley Klein is our referee for this finals match, and he is nothing if not experienced. The Eels are 1-1 under Klein this year, losing to Manly and beating Canberra. They were 3-1 under Klein in 2019. Melbourne are 3-1 under Klein this year, their loss being to Penrith, and were 1-2 in 2019. Klein is middle of the pack for six again calls and penalties blown, but he will come under extra scrutiny because of the role officiating has played in past Storm/Eels semi finals. All we can hope for is consistency, as in the last three matches the Eels have had differentials of 5 six again calls, once in our favour (Brisbane) and twice in favour of the opposition (Penrith and Wests). 

It certainly doesn’t feel like the Eels get a fair shake of six again calls, though for the season the Eels restart differential is exactly zero. This comes down to those big differentials in recent games, and the calls that Parramatta don’t get that are seemingly deserved based on other calls within that same match. Consistency in restart enforcement has been a real issue across the board, but a lopsided count like we have seen in recent weeks would be a disaster against Melbourne.

Another reason this disparity could be exaggerated is that the Eels concede the fewest and receive the most penalties in the NRL. You would expect that dominance in discipline to be replicated in six again calls, but this is rarely the case. In fact, six agains may be the new equaliser for lopsided penalty counts. Eels fans love a #refsfault as much as any in the league, so I mostly hope for an uncontroversial performance from Klein just so I don’t have to hear about it for the next ten years.

The early forecast is for fine weather, and even with a night kickoff it may be hotter than usual for the Eels. That should mean less dew and some dry weather footy can be played, but Melbourne has been training in these hotter conditions for a while now so a warmer night might be in their favour.

It is technically a Melbourne home game, but this semi will be played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane due to the COVID restrictions. Melbourne has played most of its home games at the Sunshine Coast, where they have had strong home support, but there are a lot of Eels fans up north of the border, so it may be that we get a 50/50 crowd split for this one, especially considering how starved of football Queensland Eels fans have been. Just don’t think about the last time Parramatta met Melbourne up at Suncorp.

How we win

While Melbourne are the deserved favourites, Parramatta are more than capable of winning this game. It will take a more committed effort than we have seen in the last ten weeks, but the best Eels football is a very good shot to beat Melbourne on any day.

Reality is, Parramatta will need to control this match for the full 80 to minimise the chances Melbourne get to exploit their weaknesses. That means no silly mistakes, no pushed offloads, no hanging around too long in the ruck late in the tackle count. It requires controlled aggression in attack, especially around the ruck where the temptation for Junior and Nathan Brown to pop offloads and short passes will be immense. Brad Arthur will be hammering into his side that they need to earn the right to play expansive and aggressive footy, but we’ve seen plenty of times this year where the Eels have tried to overplay their way out of poor attacking position with hospital passes and doomed tip plays, and Kane Evans in particular loves to try and counter a poor set or run with a risky offload.

It is imperative that the Eels win the battle in the middle. That has rarely been a problem in 2020, but there are some opposition tactics that Parramatta has not done a good job countering and the Storm will be well studied and ready to employ those methods. Penrith was particularly effective at rushing the Eels one-out runs, knowing they are unlikely to go two wide for hitups in their own half. This was compounded by the Parramatta forwards angling back into the ruck, where I’d prefer to see them push the pass one wide, and the outside men expecting that movement. Brown, Paulo, Campbell-Gillard and the back rowers are all capable of deft passes, they need to be used for more than just committing defenders to the ruck inside the 20.

Once the Eels are in attacking position, they need much better execution of set plays, particularly where block runner and decoys are used. Brad Takairangi denied Andrew Davey a great try last week by lingering in the line aimlessly, while Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson have both been caught in recent weeks too. Runners need to commit to the line and run through, you can’t pull up in the defensive line, especially when Parramatta has some fleet footed halves who would love to step back inside. The punishment is even worse here, as not only does a try come off the board, but the defensive team gets a penalty and relief from running it out from their own line. I don’t expect miracles from one week of training, but even if you take yourself out of the next play, decoys need to just run all the way through the line.

So where are the weak points in the Storm defence? While they’re not the Eels dreaded “Wall of Blake”, Suliasi Vunivalu and Brenko Lee are easily the weak links in the Melbourne line. Lee is well known as a defensive liability whose loose tackling concedes one line break per game, while Vunivalu is ‘credited’ with 13 try concedes from 14 games. On the other side of the field, Olam and Addo-Carr have a total 10 try concedes between them from 36 combined games.

It will be one of the rare times Maika Sivo doesn’t have a significant physical advantage over his opposite, but exploiting this right edge of Melbourne will be the job of Michael Jennings, who should be able to beat Lee one on one, or at least draw the attention of Vunivalu to put Sivo away down the corridor. The key will be to get these players the space they need with early shifts.

The Parramatta wide attack has improved in recent weeks, or at the least it has looked better when pitted against inferior opposition. A lot of that has to do with Clint Gutherson, who is joining the line at pace and making good decisions with his passing and timing when to run. The result of this game could come down to whether Gutherson gets a good tap-on to his outside man or whether a touch judge sees a flat tap as forward or backwards.

Those tap-ons are required because opposition defenders have been rushing the Eels dangerous edge attack to shut it down. It has been a successful ploy, and one that Parramatta seemed to finally counter against the Tigers with a deft short kicking game. The grubber has almost become a lost art this season as teams go for pinpoint bombs to take advantage of the “tackle in the air” rules, let’s hope the focus on short kicking behind the line shown against Wests wasn’t just because it is a well known weakness of the Tigers. Just less kicking on the third tackle, please.

Parramatta’s long range attack has consisted almost entirely of Clint Gutherson running off short inside passes or offloads in the middle of the ruck, and the Melbourne pack seem ripe for this strategy. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been named at lock, the giant grub will add some significant starch to the Storm forwards early but his lateral movement should be targeted as the half wears on. Tinu Faasuamaleaui is similarly built with a similar weakness, there will be a ten minute window in both of their stints where they should be exploitable around the edges. It is too much to expect the Eels to unleash early shifts in their own half for the first time this year, but Dylan Brown doesn’t mind probing the defence on the last tackle if they give him some space. A play like that might be the difference in this match.

From there, Parramatta just needs to shut down Cameron Smith, Cam Munster, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Josh Addo-Carr and then the high effort bench impact of Brandon Smith. Easy right? The Eels did a good job on Papenhuyzen earlier in the year, and the middle defence has been quietly incredible, leaving little for Smith to work with close to the line in terms of runners. Munster out wide, Hughes in support and any attack down the Eels right edge are massive concerns, hence the best strategy being prevention and keeping this game between the 20s. Blake Ferguson absolutely has to trust Waqa Blake in midfield, teams are starting to test them outside of the red zone and Ferguson was found wanting last week. Waqa makes a good decision so rarely that when he does, Ferguson can’t ruin it all by not trusting him.

How it goes 

I don’t think the Eels need to rely on the Storm not playing their best, or being distracted by off field drama and endless “Storm wrestle bad” headlines. They certainly won’t be distracted by a reserve grader getting three weeks for a hip drop tackle. Melbourne has played some undefendable football against the Eels in recent times (see the two matches last year), but we have rarely seen the Storm in that kind of invincible form in 2020. Melbourne has played better football than Parramatta this season overall, but the gap between the two is nowhere near as big as the odds indicate.

The first 20 minutes are crucial. Too often, Parramatta has been out of the contest before it started by conceding early tries to the Storm. Facebook and Twitter will go down under the weight of self pitying Eels fans death riding their team if Melbourne score a soft try in the first ten minutes, and that’s before all the opposition fans whose teams will be painting sheds and mowing lawns this weekend get their turn to pile on. 

This is the best Eels pack we have seen since 2001, and I have complete faith in their ability to make this one an arm wrestle and give the Parramatta playmakers a shot. Papenhuyzen and Munster are electric players, but give me Clint Gutherson in his 2020 form over either of them. He is everywhere, making the right decisions and the big plays. If Nathan Cleary wasn’t assured of getting the Johnathan Thurston “Cowboys win, 3 points JT” treatment for the Dally M this year, he’d be the hot favourite to take the crown. Given a fair share of chances, the King, Mitch and Dylan will put points on the board.

Then it just comes down to holding the Storm out. The only way to do this is to limit their chances. The right edge is going to be targeted, and how well it holds up will ultimately determine the result. Maika Sivo needs to stay on his bloody wing too, and learn to put a decent shot on a defender diving for the corner. If Waqa Blake can have a game like he did against Newcastle, where he targeted different men when rushing out of the line but importantly, hit them, then we have a chance. The key to getting a good game out of him is giving him time to make decisions. When Souths played flat he got caught at sea far too often.

If we can compensate for that admittedly massive weakness, and minimise the number of “freak” plays Melbourne can pull off (why are so many of those “three kick, twenty offload” tries scored against Parramatta?) then we’re a massive chance at the upset on Saturday night. I may not be confident, but I have faith.

Go you Eels!

Prediction: Parramatta Eels 22 Melbourne Storm 18

Man of the Match: Dylan Brown